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http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org...eb007cc719.pdf
Overview of Scenarios...
rockefeller_chart.jpg
Concluding thoughts from the report....
Three key insights stood out to us as we
developed these scenarios.
First, the link between technology and
governance is critical to consider in better
understanding how technology could be
developed and deployed. In some futures, the
primacy of the nation-state as a unit of analysis
in development was questioned as both supra- or
sub-national structures proved more salient to
the achievement of development goals. In other
futures, the nation-state’s power strengthened
and it became an even more powerful actor
both to the benefit and to the detriment of
the development process, depending on the
quality of governance. Technologies will affect
governance, and governance in turn will play
a major role in determining what technologies
are developed and who those technologies are
intended, and able, to benefit.
A second recurring theme in the scenarios is that
development work will require different levels of
intervention, possibly simultaneously. In some
scenarios, philanthropic organizations and other
actors in development face a set of obstacles in
working with large institutions, but may face a
yet-unfolding set of opportunities to work with
nontraditional partners — even individuals. The
organization that is able to navigate between
these levels and actors may be best positioned to
drive success.
The third theme highlights the potential value
of scenarios as one critical element of strategy
development. These narratives have served to
kick-start the idea generation process, build the
future-oriented mindset of participants, and
provide a guide for ongoing trend monitoring
and horizon scanning activities. They also offer
a useful framework that can help in tracking and
making sense of early indicators and milestones
that might signal the way in which the world is
actually transforming.
While these four scenarios vary significantly
from one another, one theme is common to them
all: new innovations and uses of technology
will be an active and integral part of the
international development story going forward.
The changing nature of technologies could
shape the characteristics of development and the
kinds of development aid that are in demand. In
a future in which technologies are effectively
adopted and adapted by poor people on a broad
scale, expectations about the provision of
services could fundamentally shift. Developing
a deeper understanding of the ways in which
technology can impact development will better
prepare everyone for the future, and help all of
us drive it in new and positive directions.
Overview of Scenarios...
rockefeller_chart.jpg
Concluding thoughts from the report....
Three key insights stood out to us as we
developed these scenarios.
First, the link between technology and
governance is critical to consider in better
understanding how technology could be
developed and deployed. In some futures, the
primacy of the nation-state as a unit of analysis
in development was questioned as both supra- or
sub-national structures proved more salient to
the achievement of development goals. In other
futures, the nation-state’s power strengthened
and it became an even more powerful actor
both to the benefit and to the detriment of
the development process, depending on the
quality of governance. Technologies will affect
governance, and governance in turn will play
a major role in determining what technologies
are developed and who those technologies are
intended, and able, to benefit.
A second recurring theme in the scenarios is that
development work will require different levels of
intervention, possibly simultaneously. In some
scenarios, philanthropic organizations and other
actors in development face a set of obstacles in
working with large institutions, but may face a
yet-unfolding set of opportunities to work with
nontraditional partners — even individuals. The
organization that is able to navigate between
these levels and actors may be best positioned to
drive success.
The third theme highlights the potential value
of scenarios as one critical element of strategy
development. These narratives have served to
kick-start the idea generation process, build the
future-oriented mindset of participants, and
provide a guide for ongoing trend monitoring
and horizon scanning activities. They also offer
a useful framework that can help in tracking and
making sense of early indicators and milestones
that might signal the way in which the world is
actually transforming.
While these four scenarios vary significantly
from one another, one theme is common to them
all: new innovations and uses of technology
will be an active and integral part of the
international development story going forward.
The changing nature of technologies could
shape the characteristics of development and the
kinds of development aid that are in demand. In
a future in which technologies are effectively
adopted and adapted by poor people on a broad
scale, expectations about the provision of
services could fundamentally shift. Developing
a deeper understanding of the ways in which
technology can impact development will better
prepare everyone for the future, and help all of
us drive it in new and positive directions.