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The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

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  • The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

    Robert Kuttner Testimony to Committee of Financial Services

    Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee:

    Thank you for this opportunity. My name is Robert Kuttner. I am an economics and financial journalist, author of several books about the economy, co-editor of The American Prospect, and former investigator for the Senate Banking Committee. I have a book appearing in a few weeks that addresses the systemic risks of financial innovation coupled with deregulation and the moral hazard of periodic bailouts.

    In researching the book, I devoted a lot of effort to reviewing the abuses of the 1920s, the effort in the 1930s to create a financial system that would prevent repetition of those abuses, and the steady dismantling of the safeguards over the last three decades in the name of free markets and financial innovation.

    Your predecessors on the Senate Banking Committee, in the celebrated Pecora Hearings of 1933 and 1934, laid the groundwork for the modern edifice of financial regulation. I suspect that they would be appalled at the parallels between the systemic risks of the 1920s and many of the modern practices that have been permitted to seep back in to our financial markets.

    Although the particulars are different, my reading of financial history suggests that the abuses and risks are all too similar and enduring. When you strip them down to their essence, they are variations on a few hardy perennials -- excessive leveraging, misrepresentation, insider conflicts of interest, non-transparency, and the triumph of engineered euphoria over evidence.

    The most basic and alarming parallel is the creation of asset bubbles, in which the purveyors of securities use very high leverage; the securities are sold to the public or to specialized funds with underlying collateral of uncertain value; and financial middlemen extract exorbitant returns at the expense of the real economy. This was the essence of the abuse of public utilities stock pyramids in the 1920s, where multi-layered holding companies allowed securities to be watered down, to the point where the real collateral was worth just a few cents on the dollar, and returns were diverted from operating companies and ratepayers. This only became exposed when the bubble burst. As Warren Buffett famously put it, you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out.

    There is good evidence -- and I will add to the record a paper on this subject by the Federal Reserve staff economists Dean Maki and Michael Palumbo -- that even much of the boom of the late 1990s was built substantially on asset bubbles. ["Disentangling the Wealth Effect: a Cohort Analysis of Household Savings in the 1990s"]

  • #2
    Re: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

    we could dismantle the protections put in place in the '30s because we were much more sophisticated and smarter than those stodgy, old-fashioned people who could only be photographed in black-and-white.

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    • #3
      Re: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

      "There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present."
      - John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria

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      • #4
        Re: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

        Here's what was reported about a speech on September 6, 2007 by Alan Greenspan at an event in Washington, D.C. organised by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
        "The human race has never found a way to confront bubbles," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday in reference to the euphoria that can precede contractions, or reactions, like the current market turmoil, according to a published report...
        ...Bubbles can't be defused through incremental adjustments in interest rates, he suggested, the paper reported. The Fed doubled interest rates in 1994-95, and "stopped the nascent stock-market boom," but when stopped, stocks took off again. "We tried to do it again in 1997," when the Fed raised rates a quarter of a percentage point, and "the same phenomenon occurred."
        "The human race has never found a way to confront bubbles," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday in reference to the euphoria that can precede contractions, or reactions, like the current market turmoil, according to a published report.

        Here's what John Kenneth Galbraith wrote about the subject of bubbles and the Federal Reserve Board in his 1955 book "The Great Crash - 1929":
        A bubble can easily be punctured. But to incise it with a needle so that it subsides gradually is a task of no small delicacy. Among those who sensed what was happening in early 1929, there was some hope but no confidence that the boom could be made to subside. The real choice was between an immediate and deliberately engineered collapse and a more serious disaster later on. Someone would certainly be blamed for the ultimate collapse when it came. There was no question whatsoever as to who would be blamed should the boom be deliberately deflated. For nearly a decade the Federal Reserve authorities had been denying their responsibility for the deflation of 1920-21…However disguised or evaded, these were the choices which haunted every serious conference on what to do about the market.”…
        …“Such is the mystique of central banking. Such was the awe-inspiring role in 1929 of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington which guided the twelve Federal Reserve banks. However, there was a jarring difficulty. The Federal Reserve Board in those times was a body of startling incompetence.”
        'Nuff said? :p

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        • #5
          Re: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

          i still think that in the '90s, the fed should have used its power to raise margin requirements on equity purchases. i know greenspan dismissed that option, saying that there were so many ways to get around margin requirements via futures, options, etc. but i think raising margin requirements would have restricted the positions of newly minted unsophisticated day traders who were over their heads, and would have sent an important signal to the general public, a signal the antithesis of that in fact sent by greenspan with his cheerleading for the "new economy." it's interesting to note that for all his excuses for failing to stem the tech bubble, greenspan hasn't addressed the fact that he pulled out the pompoms for the "miraculous producivity gains" of "new economy."

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          • #6
            Re: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

            Originally posted by jk View Post
            i still think that in the '90s, the fed should have used its power to raise margin requirements on equity purchases. i know greenspan dismissed that option, saying that there were so many ways to get around margin requirements via futures, options, etc. but i think raising margin requirements would have restricted the positions of newly minted unsophisticated day traders who were over their heads, and would have sent an important signal to the general public, a signal the antithesis of that in fact sent by greenspan with his cheerleading for the "new economy." it's interesting to note that for all his excuses for failing to stem the tech bubble, greenspan hasn't addressed the fact that he pulled out the pompoms for the "miraculous producivity gains" of "new economy."
            Agree completely jk. I find the following type of statistic, and its implications, difficult to comprehend. But I am certain that it's an outgrowth of a lack of diligence on the part of Central Bankers, led by the Fed, going back to the 1990's, and is likely to result in a messy outcome since it is inconceivable (to me) that this can continue indefinitely.
            October 13 – Shanghai Daily: “China’s foreign exchange reserves reached US$1.43 trillion at the end of September, up 45% from the same period last year, the People's Bank of China said… Over the first nine months, US$367.3 billion was added to the country's cache of foreign exchange reserves… The massive forex reserves are causing excess liquidity in China. At the end of September, China's M2…grew 18.45% from a year ago to 39.31 trillion yuan (US$5.23 TN

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            • #7
              Re: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

              Robert Kuttner was on Bill Moyers this week, along with former SEC Chairman William Donaldson. Most of the discussion centers around hedge funds. Donaldson was not a very compelling speaker, and seemed a little dodgy to me at times. Kuttner was more confident, and laid out the basic concerns raised in his book(s) and senate testimony.

              One point that Donaldson made which caught my attention was this:

              WILLIAM DONALDSON: Through a quirk in the regulatory structure hedge funds are not regulated like mutual funds are, or like investment advisors are, or like investment management and brokerage firms are. This is, I believe, just crazy, that we can have, you know, $1.7 trillion dollars. On some days, hedge funds account for 50 percent of the volume on the New York Stock Exchange. So it seems like we ought to at least understand what's going on in the hedge fund business.
              Wow, half the trading volume, and it's completely unregulated? Talk about monkey business.

              http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10122007/watch.html

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