EJ Appreciation Thread

[Master Shake]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

What she said.

[Adeptus]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

+1
Because of EJ my child will have a better education about how Money works than I ever had - Thank you for sharing your wisdom and challenging my view of money/investing.

+3 !!!

[AxelB]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

I too have set out my appreciation for EJ and his team in other posts, but would be remiss if I did not join this well deserved chorus in reiterating and supporting such admiration. There are many specific ways in which this forum has served people, but one of the ones that amazes me most is the emergence of a new paradigm based on progressive ideals (e.g. anti financialization of the economy) driven by entrepreneurial drive. We've lost our vision and I feel one coming together on this blog. It's a lot to ask for, but it has to start somewhere.

thank you.

[photoncounter]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

itulip is the best thing that happened to me right out of grad school -- proudly drove my old Honda for 2 years before I bought another car with min debt (most likely I would have bought a fancy, NEW car) --> instead bought gold (2008) that eventually paid for the down payment on an home (not in US) !

Here's the first article I read and still forward it to people I think it may help: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...e-Zero-percent

Needless to say that the knowledge gained on various topics/subjects is invaluable. I started with zero.

Thank you very much, EJ and the itulip community.

[EJ]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Shiny!, thank you for starting this thread and all who posted to it.

Your kind encouragement makes the effort worth it.

This evening I head off to the Boston Fed again for the annual meeting of the Boston Economics Club followed by cocktails and dinner.

Janet L. Yellen is giving the keynote.

I plan to ask her a question or two to help us fill in a few blanks.

A brief reminder of a key part of the iTulip forecasting process.

We take information items A, B, and C from sources 1, 2, and 3.

The items in isolation mean little, but if they are properly combined they produce a whole.

It was, for example, by this method that the forecast of a top in the NASDAQ in March 2000 was made.

I intend to employ the method to determine the shift in markets and policy that spells the end of the 30 plus year bond bull and the 12 year gold bull markets.

I will also take this opportunity to impart an aspect of a skill acquired from a decade in sales in the high tech industry after years as an engineer and product manager: how to listen to a prospect. Invaluable for interviewing people without them knowing that they are being interviewed. The aspect of the skill is this: the most important information that a prospect will tell you in a meeting will be the words out of their mouth immediately after a meeting is over.

It is over cocktails and dinner that truly useful information is gathered. Stay tuned.

[sunpearl71]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

A brief reminder of a key part of the iTulip forecasting process.

We take information items A, B, and C from sources 1, 2, and 3.

The items in isolation mean little, but if they are properly combined they produce a whole.

It was, for example, by this method that the forecast of a top in the NASDAQ in March 2000 was made.

EJ,

I've been reading a number of sources of financial information the past few years. The iTulip process you have highlighted is synthesis as opposed to analysis that one can find lots from various sources.

Synthesis is inherently hard as one needs to take in a broader view and rely on looking beyond the data.

What started off for me as investment related reading in iTulip has led me to explore the following topics in no particular order:
Macro-economics
Politics and the Political economy
TECI economy
VC and PE investments
REITs
Geopolitics
Peak cheap oil theory
Nat Gas
Currencies
IMS
Fractional Reserve Banking
Gold and precious metals
Global trade and mercantilist strategies

While I have read about these topics individually before, my time spent on iTulip has made me more cognizant of the interrelationships between these disparate topics.

I am very grateful to the insights that you and the rest of the iTulip community provide on a daily basis.

[astonas]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Dead on!

I'll pile on with my own thanks as well. EJ, you consistently give of your valuable time and energy to enlighten and inform, to educate and energize. I know that you could probably be making more money in other ways. But I also know that by not doing so, and by sticking with this forum for your work, you serve as not only a resource, but also as an inspiration, to others. I hope that you occasionally get to just sit back and enjoy the knowledge that your work here makes thousands a little safer, a little bolder, and much, much, better equipped to take on the world successfully.

Many Thanks!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Shiny!, thank you for starting this thread and all who posted to it.

Your kind encouragement makes the effort worth it.

This evening I head off to the Boston Fed again for the annual meeting of the Boston Economics Club followed by cocktails and dinner.

Janet L. Yellen is giving the keynote.

I plan to ask her a question or two to help us fill in a few blanks.

A brief reminder of a key part of the iTulip forecasting process.

We take information items A, B, and C from sources 1, 2, and 3.

The items in isolation mean little, but if they are properly combined they produce a whole.

It was, for example, by this method that the forecast of a top in the NASDAQ in March 2000 was made.

I intend to employ the method to determine the shift in markets and policy that spells the end of the 30 plus year bond bull and the 12 year gold bull markets.

I will also take this opportunity to impart an aspect of a skill acquired from a decade in sales in the high tech industry after years as an engineer and product manager: how to listen to a prospect. Invaluable for interviewing people without them knowing that they are being interviewed. The aspect of the skill is this: the most important information that a prospect will tell you in a meeting will be the words out of their mouth immediately after a meeting is over.

It is over cocktails and dinner that truly useful information is gathered. Stay tuned.

Good luck and get them good and drunk EJ!

It's a shame their body language under questioning as a means of communication can't be conveyed better via an internet forum.

I've always liked to throw a question or two out there JUST to gauge body language.

[EJ]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Good luck and get them good and drunk EJ!

It's a shame their body language under questioning as a means of communication can't be conveyed better via an internet forum.

I've always liked to throw a question or two out there JUST to gauge body language.

Thank you sunpearl71 for the kind words.

lakeaemonian, just returned from the meeting. A couple of photos I took and brief comments.

The meeting was on the record. Media were there.

You can already read 690 stories on the Internet about it.

I asked Dr. Yellen one question in front of the group during the Q&A session and more afterward one-on-one. My public question is probably recorded and available on some site somewhere.

I'll go into my questions and my interpretations of her answers in detail in the subscriber area tomorrow. A few points: The Fed believes that it can keep rates low across the yield curve indefinitely. They believe that the only event that can cause interest rates to rise is for the output gap to close and for markets to price in unmanageable US fiscal liabilities. They are worried that so much money is piling into long bonds because they think robust growth will cause a sudden spike in yields that will produce a stampede out of bonds that pushes yields up further. At the same time they are worried about the US falling into a deflationary spiral caused by events in Europe but think they have the tools to prevent it.

Overall I liked her more than Bernanke. She was far more direct with her answers. She comes across as a likable academic. She's tiny, with warm, intelligent eyes.

She's perfect for the job, following a script, instilling confidence, mollifying the crowd. From the FOMC members I've met, I'm starting to think they have a rule about hiring members who are more than five foot three.

My takeaway: They really don't know what the hell they're doing. They're lost and making it up as they go along. They did not see any of this coming. They could not see beyond fighting deflation with "creative tools" might produce a windsock economy that is dependent on monetary and fiscal stimulus.

We know more than they do. They are institutionally stupid.

[ST]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Remarkable. That's a vote for the worst case scenario. No chance that they simply cannot speak freely in public about what they comprehend?

[shiny!]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Remarkable. That's a vote for the worst case scenario. No chance that they simply cannot speak freely in public about what they comprehend?

I know you asked this of EJ, not me, but it seems like if what they comprehend is so dire that they can't talk about it, then it's still a worst case scenario.

[ST]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

I know you asked this of EJ, not me, but it seems like if what they comprehend is so dire that they can't talk about it, then it's still a worst case scenario.

Yes, though you'd like to know whether your bus driver is cognizant of which side of the road he is supposed to drive on. You buckle your seat belt either way but maybe you need to put on the crash helmet, too.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

I'll go into my questions and my interpretations of her answers in detail in the subscriber area tomorrow. A few points: The Fed believes that it can keep rates low across the yield curve indefinitely. They believe that the only event that can cause interest rates to rise is for the output gap to close and for markets to price in unmanageable US fiscal liabilities.

I'm still in EJ101 Remedial Summer Class....but doesn't their statement that they can keep rates low forever contradict there statement that they can only do it IF the output gap trap is NOT closed?

I thought we were doomed if we DIDN'T close the output gap trap?

So are they playing Jedi Mind Tricks?

To me it reads like: Rates will stay low indefinitely...if you measure indefinitely as being right until impact with the ground at Mach3.

Or

Interest Rates will ONLY climb if we survive(close the output gap trap)


Overall I liked her more than Bernanke. She was far more direct with her answers. She comes across as a likable academic. She's tiny, with warm, intelligent eyes.

She's perfect for the job, following a script, instilling confidence, mollifying the crowd. From the FOMC members I've met, I'm starting to think they have a rule about hiring members who are more than five foot three.

Possible short-list Bernake successor? What with the feminine slant we are seeing with the last two Supreme Court appointment as well as the very aggressive changes in the Us Army at the moment...makes me wonder!

My takeaway: They really don't know what the hell they're doing. They're lost and making it up as they go along. They did not see any of this coming. They could not see beyond fighting deflation with "creative tools" might produce a windsock economy that is dependent on monetary and fiscal stimulus.

We know more than they do. They are institutionally stupid.

Cheers for the photos....hopefully some good gossip in your next post for texture.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

Wow...I just had a read up on Janet Yellen.....She certainly sounds like a future first female Fed Chairman.

She sounds like she has the right pedigree...and she's married to Nobel in Econ Winner George Akerlof...who has written about things like Market for Lemons, information asymmetry, as well as Looting Theory.

She's ready to hit the ground running with a superhero sidekick for free.

I am now taking bets Janet Yellen is the next Fed Chairmen(or is that Chairwoman).

$1 dollar pays $1.10.

Or one domestic draft beer pays one import bottle.

[staci_vay]

Re: EJ Appreciation Thread

EJ,

Looks like they are gearing up for a soon to be QE3. But in what form? How will they do it this time? Private assets like corp bonds, commercial paper? Will it be another swap of the printing press $$ similar to Euorpe's LTRO's? Somehow, I think the banks will be allowed to purge their balance sheets even more of horrible assets (liabilities).

Did the gold, dollar and (all) commodity markets on friday signal the fix is in?


Your thoughts are always appreciated.

Thanks.