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  • number of the week: The 49.1%

    guess things really are looking up (from the early 80's, when only 30% were getting gov juice)
    wont be long now, til most of us are, eh?

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/...ting-benefits/

    Originally posted by wsj/izzo

    By Phil Izzo

    49.1%: Percent of the population that lives in a household where at least one member received some type of government benefit in the first quarter of 2011.
    Cutting government spending is no easy task, and it’s made more complicated by recent Census Bureau data showing that nearly half of the people in the U.S. live in a household that receives at least one government benefit, and many likely received more than one.
    The 49.1% of the population in a household that gets benefits is up from 30% in the early 1980s and 44.4% as recently as the third quarter of 2008.
    The increase in recent years is likely due in large part to the lingering effects of the recession. As of early 2011, 15% of people lived in a household that received food stamps, 26% had someone enrolled in Medicaid and 2% had a member receiving unemployment benefits. Families doubling up to save money or pool expenses also is likely leading to more multigenerational households. But even without the effects of the recession, there would be a larger reliance on government.
    The Census data show that 16% of the population lives in a household where at least one member receives Social Security and 15% receive or live with someone who gets Medicare. There is likely a lot of overlap, since Social Security and Medicare tend to go hand in hand, but those percentages also are likely to increase as the Baby Boom generation ages.
    More In Benefits




    With increased government spending comes the need to pay for it, and if taxes aren’t going to increase that means deficits. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame the U.S. budget deficit on spending too much money on federal programs, according to a Gallup poll last year, but when the conversation turns to which programs to cut, the majorities are harder to find. For example, 56% of respondents oppose making significant changes to Social Security or Medicare.
    The more people who receive benefits, the harder it’s going to be to make cuts, and it’s never popular to raise taxes. In some respects that argues for letting a combination of tax increases and spending cuts that is set to automatically hit in 2013 take effect. There’s just one problem: the Congressional Budget Office says it would sink the economy into recession.
    Letting the 2013 provisions come into force would be like dealing with a weight problem by cutting off your right arm. It may not be popular, but a long-term, well-planned diet is the only solution.

  • #2
    Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

    Two of the salient features of a Third World country are widespread government employment/subsidies together with an underground economy.

    Lafayette, we are here . . .

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

      Originally posted by don View Post
      ....Lafayette, we are here . . .
      yep - feel like i been 'there' since 2009

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

        Originally posted by lektrode View Post
        guess things really are looking up (from the early 80's, when only 30% were getting gov juice)
        wont be long now, til most of us are, eh?

        http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/...ting-benefits/
        So grandpa moves in because you can't afford a nursing home and now you're part of this graph?

        Grandpa worked and paid into Social Security his whole life.

        That is something wholly different than food stamps.

        Putting them on the same graph only serves one purpose. And the argument will go like this:

        "Too many people are on food stamps, and medicare's expensive, so let's end social security and give the money to wall street."

        Shhhh. Don't worry if it makes sense. Those Goldman boys know how to "help" you retire. Go back to sleep. Remember, social security is "bad." It's a government "benefit." Just give Goldman the 6.25% of your check. They'll "invest" it well. You'll be "better" off. We "promise."

        Ignore the fact that TIPS beat the S&P 500 in the long run. You never know when it will go up.

        Also, lower taxes on billionaires. They'll "create" jobs with their "investments." Or, if that doesn't work, at least they'll create "liquidity." "Liquidity" is very important. It's "good" for "small business." If we deregulate options trading, it will "create liquidity" and there'll be more money to "lend" to "small business."

        Yeah. That sounds good. Tell them that.

        Suckers.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

          Front page article in yesterday Times carried the message that pension funds have to get real. Expecting 7-8% on their lifetime savings fund is out of step with today's financial realities.

          Nowhere was there a discussion of what the true cost of money should be.

          Nowhere was there even a mention of the ongoing Currency War launched by the QE armadas.

          Get real . . . .

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

            appears the Magic Number may be 80 . . .

            The sources of retirement support

            An interesting survey by Wells Fargo highlights the big changes coming in the concept of retirement for Americans. What it finds is that younger Americans are going to be less reliant on Social Security and pensions (not by choice) yet these same workers are largely funding the retirement of the 1 out of 3 current retirees that largely depend on Social Security for their income:




            While 43 percent of Americans worry about paying the monthly bills 60 percent worry about being able to pay the costs should an accident or medical emergency arise. These are items that are part of being able to retire at least with some semblance of peace. Yet it is becoming much harder with the current economy and the reality that most have not saved enough:


            “(CNN Money) While respondents (whose ages ranged from 20 to 80) had median savings of only $25,000, their median retirement savings goal was $350,000. And 30% of people in their 60s — right around the traditional retirement age of 65 — that were surveyed had saved less than $25,000 for retirement.

            As a result, many people aren’t in a hurry to quit their day jobs.

            Three-fourths of middle-class Americans expect to work throughout retirement. And this includes the 25% of Americans who say they will “need to work until at least age 80″ before being able to retire comfortably.”


            The above data is interesting because it does show that the average American realizes they need more for retirement yet is unable to save anything close to the amount. Given the costs of goods and simply living life it has become tougher for the per capita worker making $25,000 a year to save enough to retire comfortably. Younger Americans will have very little access to a pension moving forward:




            In 1983 62 percent of Americans had access to a pension while in 2004 it was down to 20 percent and today it is likely much lower. Couple this with the low savings rate to begin with and you can see the problems beginning to emerge. Older Americans are going to need to plan on migrating funds to their own children as a retirement strategy. This might put a dent in the notion of traveling the world and playing golf all day long but the data suggests a difficult transition from the current notion of retirement with the actual facts on the ground. Many are planning on working until the age of 80, beyond the normal life expectancy of most Americans. In other words, people will need to work beyond the grave if they plan on having what was normally associated with a middle class retirement.

            http://www.mybudget360.com/saying-go...money-savings/

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

              You're absolutely correct. The people trying to turn SS from an insurance program into a retirement account never seem to give up or go away. And they appear to be gaining ground. Many people I know claim that the government "raided" SS and that's why there's no money to pay benefits. This is a common belief and is consistent with the idea that SS is a retirement account.

              The reason why Grandpa gets his SS as a right, not a government "benefit", is that he paid all his premiums. If my house burns down, is the insurance company being charitable by honoring my insurance policy? Of course not, and neither is the SSA when it merely honors its contract with each citizen who paid his SS premiums and lives to the required age.

              As to the SSA investment of surplus premiums into treasury bonds with maturities to match scheduled benefit payouts, what could be more prudent, particularly given the last 12 years of negative real stock returns?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                Work until 80 if you're lucky, or,

                Why not start smoking?

                The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: Job Insecurity, Debt Weigh on Retirement Confidence, Savings

                March 2012
                EBRI Issue Brief #369
                Paperback, 36 pp.
                PDF, 1,585 kb
                Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2012

                Download Issue Brief PDF

                Executive Summary
                • Americans’ confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009).
                • Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today.
                • Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses.
                • Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household’s savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000.
                • Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent.
                • Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure.
                • Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement.
                • Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be.
                • Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer.
                • More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried to calculate how much money they will need to have saved by the time they retire so that they can live comfortably in retirement.
                • Only a minority of workers and retirees feel very comfortable using online technologies to perform various tasks related to financial management. Relatively few use mobile devices such as a smart phone or tablet to manage their finances, and just 10 percent say they are comfortable obtaining advice from financial professionals online.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                  Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
                  So grandpa moves in because you can't afford a nursing home and now you're part of this graph?

                  Grandpa worked and paid into Social Security his whole life.

                  That is something wholly different than food stamps.

                  Putting them on the same graph only serves one purpose. And the argument will go like this:

                  "Too many people are on food stamps, and medicare's expensive, so let's end social security and give the money to wall street."

                  Shhhh. Don't worry if it makes sense. Those Goldman boys know how to "help" you retire. Go back to sleep. Remember, social security is "bad." It's a government "benefit." Just give Goldman the 6.25% of your check. They'll "invest" it well. You'll be "better" off. We "promise."

                  Ignore the fact that TIPS beat the S&P 500 in the long run. You never know when it will go up.

                  Also, lower taxes on billionaires. They'll "create" jobs with their "investments." Or, if that doesn't work, at least they'll create "liquidity." "Liquidity" is very important. It's "good" for "small business." If we deregulate options trading, it will "create liquidity" and there'll be more money to "lend" to "small business."

                  Yeah. That sounds good. Tell them that.

                  Suckers.

                  (yanked his ugly old kissah)

                  always appreciate your POV in this stuff, dc - thanks - and for the record, I AGREE with you.
                  (i post what eye see on ruperts propaganda machine when i want more info ;)

                  The Rest of US are getting squeezed (read screwed) between 2 halves of the same vice.

                  meanwhile the crony class (on both side of the aisle/pond) prospers.

                  whats left of ole george, ben and tom has gotta be squirmin somewhere (and never mind my ole man, i suspect yers too ;)


                  "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                    Originally posted by don View Post
                    Front page article in yesterday Times carried the message that pension funds have to get real. Expecting 7-8% on their lifetime savings fund is out of step with today's financial realities.

                    Nowhere was there a discussion of what the true cost of money should be.

                    Nowhere was there even a mention of the ongoing Currency War launched by the QE armadas.

                    Get real . . . .

                    SHHHHHHH!!!!!!
                    dont wanna spook the herd, its getting too close to november.....
                    (that and its PrimeTime for the NAR and mortgage wankers... uhhh... i mean bankers)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                      Originally posted by mybudget360/don View Post
                      appears the Magic Number may be 80 . . .
                      As a result, many people aren’t in a hurry to quit their day jobs.

                      Three-fourths of middle-class Americans expect to work throughout retirement. And this includes the 25% of Americans who say they will “need to work until at least age 80″ before being able to retire comfortably.”
                      "comfortably" ???
                      at the rate things are goin, the only way i'm ever going to be 'comfortable' is scattered across some mountain top...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                        I have the pleasure of knowing many octo-genarians through my church. They are really great people. Trouble is that a large percentage of them 50%?? could not work due to severe health issues. COPD, arthritis, cardiacic and neurological issues. In each of our lives there is going to come a time when we can no longer contribute economically. I think many today are deluding themselves that they can work into advanced age. Some can, many will not be able too.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                          Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
                          I have the pleasure of knowing many octo-genarians through my church. They are really great people. Trouble is that a large percentage of them 50%?? could not work due to severe health issues. COPD, arthritis, cardiacic and neurological issues. In each of our lives there is going to come a time when we can no longer contribute economically. I think many today are deluding themselves that they can work into advanced age. Some can, many will not be able too.
                          eye hear that (and feel it) - and it will only be an option for those that dont actually physically labor for a living
                          aka: what the social security system was meant to address (was it not?)
                          vs padding for the mid-uppermid class' pensions and 401k's - but hey!
                          IF THE ENTITLEMENTS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE THE BIG PROBLEM, why not simply raise the income limits subject to FICA (better yet, eliminate em completely, as least until the SS account 'balances'?)

                          and leave the rates the same

                          as one who has to pay the full 15point-whatevah% on ALL my income, it strikes me as more than a wee bit unfair that those above 110k get a free ride from there? (and never mind the fact that congress is exempt and has their own GD gravytrain retirement package! while The Rest of US, can do what?!! eat cake )

                          but nobody (on both sides of the aisle) even wants to discuss it?

                          (and we wont even get into the INSANITY known as the "middle class tax cut" that cannibalizes socsec and medicare?? - really - and ya cant make this s__t up??? )
                          Last edited by lektrode; May 29, 2012, 04:38 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                            Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
                            I have the pleasure of knowing many octo-genarians through my church. They are really great people. Trouble is that a large percentage of them 50%?? could not work due to severe health issues. COPD, arthritis, cardiacic and neurological issues. In each of our lives there is going to come a time when we can no longer contribute economically. I think many today are deluding themselves that they can work into advanced age. Some can, many will not be able too.
                            Compounding your observations there appears to be a diminishing number of ice floes to send them on. Aye, the perfect storm . . . .

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: number of the week: The 49.1%

                              Originally posted by goodrich4bk View Post

                              The reason why Grandpa gets his SS as a right, not a government "benefit", is that he paid all his premiums. If my house burns down, is the insurance company being charitable by honoring my insurance policy? Of course not, and neither is the SSA when it merely honors its contract with each citizen who paid his SS premiums and lives to the required age.
                              What if the insurance company is broke? What if the only way they can pay for your house is to enroll new policyholders against their will? Is this still a valid analogy?

                              You are an attorney, right? Can I sign a contract pledging your future income, without your consent, to pay back money that someone else is giving to me to use right now? If so please forward me the documents.

                              I'm not saying that no consideration should be given to people who paid in to SS. However, to pretend this situation is some kind of valid contract is dishonest. I've certainly never consented to this "contract". I've been paying into this since before I could even vote.

                              Comment

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