Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

I have mentioned this many time is many threads. Life expectancy is a horrible way to judge anything. First of all the data depends highly on many definitions, one of the most important is what is a live birth. The definition of a live birth has dramatic affects on the calculation. Also the only life expectancy that is regularly published is at birth. This ignores so many factors that actuaries don't even learn about life expectancy any longer. Life expectancy is one of, if not the most, poorly used statistic.

[c1ue]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

Yep! No question about those causes. My thesis is that you need a min amount of liquid energy per person per day to sustain yourself above subsistence AND move up beyond that level. I picked 2l/pp/pd as a 'random shot'. Its meant to get a debate and discussion going about our use (and misuse) of fossil fuels. So thanks for your comments and questions.

Fair enough.

From looking at the oil consumption data, I'd say the 'correct' level for minimum modern existence is significantly lower than 2 liters per person per day. The truly poor and hard core 'third world' nations are more like 0.5 liters per person per day or less.

Yeah? Left or right are not a causal variable. Its more complicated than that. You are correct about infrastructure. Someone might do a Multiple Regression for us (with life ex as the dependent variable). Hungary and Poland are closer to home. Must be something interesting there. Both ex-socialist states. Hmmmm. If Uruguay has that level of consumption then it would be instructive to run a comparison with a similar state to see what the causal variables might be.

I wasn't commenting on communism per se, but responding to your statements regarding Cuba and its cult of personality infused brand of communism.

To me, the factors relating to life expectancy and quality of life are how well the ideals of government are expressed by government, not the form of government.

True. But what did folk do before they had electric AC? And urban sprawls are heat traps. Very unpleasant. Why is Nth CA so chilly? Its highest lat is 45N? That's south of France (Bordeaux area). I do note the high ground inland; that will be cold. But they have a lot of timber. And they surely know how to build cozy homes.

There's a reason why the South was different than the North for many years.

As for California - the coastal current off California runs south from Alaska and is thus very cold.

Opps! Sorry, I meant FIRE was a problem in many western nations (not US states).

I think even this definition is too narrow. After all, there was/is a massive real estate bubble in China, much as the prototype for a massive property bubble bursting was first seen in Hong Kong and Japan.

I have mentioned this many time is many threads. Life expectancy is a horrible way to judge anything. First of all the data depends highly on many definitions, one of the most important is what is a live birth. The definition of a live birth has dramatic affects on the calculation. Also the only life expectancy that is regularly published is at birth. This ignores so many factors that actuaries don't even learn about life expectancy any longer. Life expectancy is one of, if not the most, poorly used statistic.

I agree that life expectancy is subject to the variations you note, but the differences bpwoods and myself are noting are more in the order of 50 years life expectancy vs. 70+ years life expectancy.

From this perspective, there is no question whatsoever that there are qualitative and quantitative differences in human existence in these various nations, even if the specific differences in life expectancy between two or more 70+ year life expectancy nations may be largely fictional.

Equally so in the health care debate - the point isn't that the US doesn't have the highest life expectancy. The point is that life expectancy in the US is in no way different/better than all the other 1st and most 2nd world nations despite a ridiculously higher level of spending on health care, a level higher by any means you'd care to categorize including per capita, percentage of income, percentage of GDP, etc etc.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

You can buy a Civic from Honda that runs on natural gas http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-natural-gas/
Many conversions are available.

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2...tive/index.htm

When Honda started retail sales of the natural gas Civic, it also began offering a home refueling device called Phill, now sold by an Italian company called BRC FuelMaker. The device can refuel a vehicle overnight when connected to a gas line from a home served by natural gas. But at this time, Honda does not recommended home refueling “because of moisture and other contaminants inherent in some natural gas supplies.” This is a shame, as the ability to refuel overnight could help address the limitations with fuel pump availability.

While it might seem odd for one manufacturer to be focused so long on an alternative-fuel niche that others have avoided, Honda says much of what it learns from CNG can be applied to hydrogen technology in the future. Both fuels use large pressurized gas storage tanks, which store very little energy. So natural-gas systems provide a baseline for how to store extra hydrogen, as well as how to manage refueling and safety systems.

hey! maybe my PLUG shares might get a 2nd wind afterall (since they've only been breaking wind so far - down only 99% since i scooped em up, but i'm holding out for the LBO - or til when demand my stock certificate so i have something to hang on my wall... ;)

Centrally fueled fleets are the only truly successful applications thus far.

not necessarily:
a Chevy Camaro is now available
tho the local copshops might be the best market for them

and bi-fueled Chevy Silvarado's will be of interest, i would think, to the contractor market, at least in natgas country

but yeah, fleetsales will be first

since who else will be able to afford em initially

[bpwoods]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

Thanks again for your commentaries.

Funny how a thread goes off in various directions! As I said my 2l/pp/pd was simply an opinion. Whatever vol that is needed, it cannot be reduced to a simple metric - despite that you regularly see simple metrics being misused. Lets say there should be a discoverable 'range' of liquid hydrocarbon fuel that is necessary - but insufficient, for well being. Maybe there is a 'family of ranges'. The initial post was about 'peak oil' and how that concept may play out in the coming years. I have not much faith in some of the 'green' and 'sustainable' hype I encounter.

I note your response to the other poster. Thanks.

I would be a tad uneasy about any state which had a cult of anything. But as economies get more depressed governments can get tricky about dissent and the democratic freedoms we enjoy.

To me, the factors relating to life expectancy and quality of life are how well the ideals of government are expressed by government, not the form of government.

Very well expressed.

I thought the ocean temp was a factor: thanks for the confirmation. Here in Ireland we have a temperate climate because of the Gulf Stream. If that should fail or be diverted the country would be unpleasant for 9 months each year, and barely tolerable for the remainder.

See you around.

[flintlock]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

[QUOTE=jk;229596]all of the income growth in the last n years has gone to the top 1%. [n is at least 10]. affordability was never an issue for the top 1%. therefore gdp is the wrong measure. i would suggest you look at the median

[flintlock]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

all of the income growth in the last n years has gone to the top 1%. [n is at least 10]. affordability was never an issue for the top 1%. therefore gdp is the wrong measure. i would suggest you look at the median income.

Beat me to it. You cant assume any increase in GDP has been spread evenly across the population.

Personally I think energy prices are not really the problem. Its the lack of wage growth. If we assume a shortage of energy and a national policy based on this, then the only way to improve efficiency is higher energy prices. Govt mandates can improve MPG on newer vehicles but cannot turn down our thermostat or make us caulk our windows. My wifes vehicle went from a 12 mpg SUV to a 26 mpg car because it saves us $2000 year in fuel, not because its greener. It only made financial sense to trade when fuel cost got above $3 gallon. im not for high energy prices, just saying that its not all bad news. Every summer we see the talk of high gas prices forcing people to cancel vacations. Kind of silly. We can drop $250 night on a room but cant afford another $25 of gas?

[flintlock]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

and perhaps you could explain why Cuba has a life expectancy of 78.8, but an oil consumption per capita of well under the 2 liters per person per day you note above.]

Its been rehashed here repeatedly the differences in how life expectancy is calculated between different nations and why comparisons are problematic. Not necessarily disagreeing with you .

[c1ue]

Re: Peak Oil: non issue from affordability point of view?

Every summer we see the talk of high gas prices forcing people to cancel vacations. Kind of silly. We can drop $250 night on a room but cant afford another $25 of gas?

I agree that the specific situation you outline is silly, but then again the economic cost of higher energy is a lot more broad as well as hidden inside prices of other items than the $25 extra - which I presume you mean for a tank of gas.

A far easier way to gauge the impact of oil prices is via the simple metric of bpwoods oil consumption per person per day.

The US consumes 18,690,000 barrels of oil per day. That works out to 0.06 barrels per day per person. Thus the increase in oil price from $20/barrel to $87/barrel is costing every single person $4/day.

No big deal right? After all, per capita income is something like $114/day...