Is this how it will start?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is this how it will start?

Some interesting real-time public order related incidents around the world:

2 Tibetans burn themselves in Lhasa:
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/tibe...012123432.html

Anarchist group vows "low level warfare" on Olympics:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-Olympics.html

[reggie]

Re: Is this how it will start?

It's interesting that you bring up Baader Meinhoff/Red Army Faction. While some would categorize them as a bunch of disaffected students, the truth is a bit different...they killed dozens(even though for a time they enjoyed public sympathetic support from Germans). They received considerable financial, training, weapons, intelligence support from the Warsaw Pact(primarily East Germany) as well as governments and non-state actors in the Middle East(Lebanon, Yemen, et al). The assassination of Alfred Herrhausen Chairman of Deutsche Bank was quite sophisticated and far beyond the capability of a bunch of Cappuccino Communist Commandos.

Glad to see you bring this up.... leaders of protest movements are controlled actors in many more instances than people would ever admit.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is this how it will start?

I'm not sure if "mistakes" is the right word here. Political Islam has been an instrument of British and U.S. imperial control at least since 1926, when the British Suez Company underwrote the founding of the Muslim Brotherhood, as a means of undercutting nationalist and leftist revolutionary movements. (See Robert Dreyfuss, Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam).

The Iranian Revolution succeeded in the goals set out by the mullahs and supported by the U.S. It quashed the democratic, anti-capitalist movement that truly threatened U.S. interests and replaced it with a reactionary, anti-democratic theocracy, which, in spite of all appearances, has suited the U.S. (and Israel) quite nicely. The U.S. and Iran continued to work together behind the scenes at least from 1979, through the 1980s (Iran/contra, etc.). and throughout the occupation of Iraq. (It's true, it seems possible that the U.S. might well go to war against Iran in the near future. As we know, the U.S. turning on former allies is not unknown, as Manuel Noriega and Saddam Hussein learned to their sorrow. But there are other forces and other stakes at play here too, now that China and a re-ascendant Russia have entered the picture.)

The U.S. appears to have a strategy of replacing secular regimes with radical Islamist regimes. (Saddam Hussein's was a secular regime, as was Mubarak's. Israel, with U.S. support, funded Hamas to establish a radical Islamist rival to the PLO.) Radical Islamist takeovers are a way of sterilizing the revolutionary ferment in the Middle East and turning it on its head. In this manner alienated young workers and farmers are caught up in movements which appear to be radical responses to Western imperialism, but are in fact covertly funded and organized by the Western powers. The alienated and impoverished classes end up trapped in a more thoroughgoing tyrrany, which no longer has the power to threaten their oppressors.

If mistakes have been made--and perhaps this was your meaning--they were made by people who were misled by the promises of radical Islam into thinking it could lead to a better life.

The point I was trying to make regarding Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt/Syria is that they may try to actively mitigate mistakes from the Iranian Revolution.

Such as(Pulitzer Prize winning photo, but GRAPHIC, NOT SAFE FOR WORK):
http://www.executedtoday.com/2008/08/27/

I would doubt any decent politician or powerbroker would want to piss off the US or any other major power....it's not personal......it's business....and bad decision making and media management can be very bad for business.

I don't disagree that the US and Iran's revolutionary leadership worked together, but it was all covert and opportunistic...handled differently maybe the relationship could have been more above board. I would think the Muslim Brotherhood would probably prefer a less adversarial relationship with the US or any other major power. Sure, creating adversaries for domestic consumption can have a beneficial effect, but from a diplomatic perspective is there anything to gain from it?

That would be a lesson to learn wouldn't it?

I think I've got a reasonably solid understanding of the modern history of Iran and Iraq, the Iran/Iraq War, Iran-Contra, and the realpolitik of US and Israeli policy towards both since the Iranian Revolution......but the history of the Muslim Brotherhood and other politically motivated islamic organizations seem much murkier and harder to extrapolate with any feeling of real understanding...or maybe it's just that the ones not focused on political violence don't get much coverage.

I can't help but think that western public attention seems to have a set of blinders on: focused on action(political violence caused by terror groups attempting to force political change to their benefit) rather than influence(political machines created by Muslim Brotherhood and others attempting to shape political outcomes to their benefit).

If western diplomatic and intelligence efforts are heavily invested in the real future power brokers of Egypt/Syria and others in the region, I would think it only makes sense to hedge their bets against the failing regional system of strongmen.

Is that such a bad thing?

Plus an entrenched political machine has proven to be a system that is very, very hard to beat, break, or even attrit.

So better to be onside with them than off, wouldn't it?

What was EJ's quote about China's bubble economy? Paraphrased as something like "A western bubble with Chinese characteristics".

Maybe Egypt/Syria and others in the region are simply seeing political evolution/metamorphosis.

Maybe Egypt/Syria and others will see a shift towards heavily, heavily controlled "democracy" reminiscent of the old political machines of America.

Those machines worked(for those who controlled them) and still do.....just look at the Chicago political machine: Cook County Democratic Organization.

If you were a foreign power and the US still possessed a substantial number of very strong political machines(say 12 Chicagos) wouldn't it make sense to invest in relationships with them to help shape the country?

If not shape, at least better understand and predict.

It was after reading about Hezbullah in Lebanon a number of years ago and how they sent around Hez glass trucks to repair windows for free that were broken from overpressure from the odd Israeli airstrike was when I first thought about the metamorphosis from political violence to political machine.

Maybe the IRA represented a model for them in a way in that transition.......first political violence, then political violence while concurrently building a political machine(PIRA, political wing), then when the political machine is big enough, drop the overt political violence because you are no longer The Insurgent, you are The Man.

Maybe we should be asking ourselves the following question:

"What would an Egyptian/Syrian/?? Boss Tweed do next?

I'll have to find some stuff to read up on regarding the history of the Muslim Brotherhood.....admittedly my earliest understanding of them begins at Hama, Syria 1982 when Assad's father leveled the city and completely destroyed them as a force for nearly 30 years....and now his son is likely to fail against the next iteration of Muslim Brotherhood 2.0

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is this how it will start?

Glad to see you bring this up.... leaders of protest movements are controlled actors in many more instances than people would ever admit.

People often refer to the sexual revolution and free love and such.

The same thing sort of happened regarding revolutionaries and trouble makers with a fair bit of cross pollination and support due to a number of factors.

I would caution the use of the phrase "controlled actors". It implies they were under strict control of their handlers.....and while handlers may have TRIED to do so, they often failed.

I couldn't imagine how difficult it would have been to try to control the personalities in the BMG/RAF or Carlos the Jackel. It surely would have caused a few ulcers!

There seems to be conflicting information about the depth and breadth of Soviet involvement in the war protest movement in the US in the 70's as well as the anti nuclear protests in Europe in the 80's....there's strong motivation for many sides to lie about it.

It's also worth noting that the US CIA played an influential role(with the Vatican/Catholic Church playing a strong supporting role) in support of the Solidarity Movement in Poland.

I would strongly suspect that considerable efforts are being made to try and replicate that same effort in Iran today.

[reggie]

Re: Is this how it will start?

I would caution the use of the phrase "controlled actors". It implies they were under strict control of their handlers.....and while handlers may have TRIED to do so, they often failed.

We can use whatever term is acceptable here, that's fine. My point is that in many cases, far more than are discussed, the "revolutioinaries" have unspoken agendas that are in alignmenment with funders/backers that are not revealed, and this alignment and their social agenda is not apparant to an onlooker and most certainly not discussed in media.

For eg., what would you call Gloria Steinem?

[Dave Stratman]

Re: Is this how it will start?

The point I was trying to make regarding Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt/Syria is that they may try to actively mitigate mistakes from the Iranian Revolution.

Such as(Pulitzer Prize winning photo, but GRAPHIC, NOT SAFE FOR WORK):
http://www.executedtoday.com/2008/08/27/

I would doubt any decent politician or powerbroker would want to piss off the US or any other major power....it's not personal......it's business....and bad decision making and media management can be very bad for business.

I don't disagree that the US and Iran's revolutionary leadership worked together, but it was all covert and opportunistic...handled differently maybe the relationship could have been more above board. I would think the Muslim Brotherhood would probably prefer a less adversarial relationship with the US or any other major power. Sure, creating adversaries for domestic consumption can have a beneficial effect, but from a diplomatic perspective is there anything to gain from it?

That would be a lesson to learn wouldn't it?

I think I've got a reasonably solid understanding of the modern history of Iran and Iraq, the Iran/Iraq War, Iran-Contra, and the realpolitik of US and Israeli policy towards both since the Iranian Revolution......but the history of the Muslim Brotherhood and other politically motivated islamic organizations seem much murkier and harder to extrapolate with any feeling of real understanding...or maybe it's just that the ones not focused on political violence don't get much coverage.

I can't help but think that western public attention seems to have a set of blinders on: focused on action(political violence caused by terror groups attempting to force political change to their benefit) rather than influence(political machines created by Muslim Brotherhood and others attempting to shape political outcomes to their benefit).

If western diplomatic and intelligence efforts are heavily invested in the real future power brokers of Egypt/Syria and others in the region, I would think it only makes sense to hedge their bets against the failing regional system of strongmen.

Is that such a bad thing?

Plus an entrenched political machine has proven to be a system that is very, very hard to beat, break, or even attrit.

So better to be onside with them than off, wouldn't it?

What was EJ's quote about China's bubble economy? Paraphrased as something like "A western bubble with Chinese characteristics".

Maybe Egypt/Syria and others in the region are simply seeing political evolution/metamorphosis.

Maybe Egypt/Syria and others will see a shift towards heavily, heavily controlled "democracy" reminiscent of the old political machines of America.

Those machines worked(for those who controlled them) and still do.....just look at the Chicago political machine: Cook County Democratic Organization.

If you were a foreign power and the US still possessed a substantial number of very strong political machines(say 12 Chicagos) wouldn't it make sense to invest in relationships with them to help shape the country?

If not shape, at least better understand and predict.

It was after reading about Hezbullah in Lebanon a number of years ago and how they sent around Hez glass trucks to repair windows for free that were broken from overpressure from the odd Israeli airstrike was when I first thought about the metamorphosis from political violence to political machine.

Maybe the IRA represented a model for them in a way in that transition.......first political violence, then political violence while concurrently building a political machine(PIRA, political wing), then when the political machine is big enough, drop the overt political violence because you are no longer The Insurgent, you are The Man.

Maybe we should be asking ourselves the following question:

"What would an Egyptian/Syrian/?? Boss Tweed do next?

I'll have to find some stuff to read up on regarding the history of the Muslim Brotherhood.....admittedly my earliest understanding of them begins at Hama, Syria 1982 when Assad's father leveled the city and completely destroyed them as a force for nearly 30 years....and now his son is likely to fail against the next iteration of Muslim Brotherhood 2.0

Interesting thoughts from a different perspective.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is this how it will start?

We can use whatever term is acceptable here, that's fine. My point is that in many cases, far more than are discussed, the "revolutioinaries" have unspoken agendas that are in alignmenment with funders/backers that are not revealed, and this alignment and their social agenda is not apparant to an onlooker and most certainly not discussed in media.

For eg., what would you call Gloria Steinem?

Don't get me wrong....I agree....I just reckon some would be more than a handful to control easily!

As covered in another thread....imagine if it were possible to visually see a politicians voting decision matched with related campaign finance......or protest group activity alignment with financial supporters in some way.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is this how it will start?

Interesting thoughts from a different perspective.

I'll keep my eye out for Dreyfuss's book.....it has some pretty solid reviews on Amazon.

I keep going back to the IRA....as they are a recent example of an organization that has completed the metamorphosis from political violence to political machine to affect political change.

The IRA(or at least it's political wing Sinn Fein) appears to have successfully made that transition from enemy to political "partner".

Lots of political violence in the 1970's thru to the 1990's and the eventual peace accords and disarmament, but things shifted(and overlapped) from political violence to political action(1981 hunger strikes made a celebrity of Bobby Sands) to political machine with Sinn Fein becoming the 2nd most powerful political party in the country and IRA violence curtailing over time and violent offshoots like Real IRA temporarily maintaining the violence void as the IRA curtailed military operations.

I wonder if the same rough transition can be seen with the Palestinians.......the PLO was an organization that used violence to achieve its objectives...to the point of developing nation-state conventional military capabilities that the Israelis destroyed in Lebanon in 1982...and the ultimate decline of the PLO seemed to have begun in some respects during the 1987 First Intifada(after they had been forced to relocate to Tunis) and the birth/rise of groups like Hamas as the PLO was beginning to losing it's appeal and its iron grip on representing the Palestinians.

While Hamas has used violence to achieve it's objectives, it seems analogous to how the Real IRA formed to fill the temporary void as the IRA's violence subsided...and as Sinn Fein's rising political power reduced the perceived need for political violence over time.

It's interesting to read how Hamas uses a considerable portion of resources for hearts/minds efforts like medical care, construction projects, education, welfare support, etc. I do not know what the true figures are, but if true it would represent a clear indication of a metamorphosis from an organization evolving from one based on political violence into a real player that controls a political machine.

I suspect there's a fair bit of truth to it, as Hamas did take considerable control of municipal/local elections over Fatah, the PLO aligned political party.....exactly what could be expected from a transforming political machine.

Is that maybe what we are seeing in Egypt and Syria......evolution from political violence to political machines?

To me...anecdotally and shooting from the hip/lip.....I suspect that's what we're seeing.

I don't think for a second it represents an end to violence....simply looking at old school political machines/unions/mafia there are many examples of violence being used.

But maybe it's preparation for the change from power coming from the barrel of a gun to the power of the ballot box......a ballot box controlled thru rigid control over every street and ward

Maybe Herbert Asbury's book Gangs of New York will be relevant in the Middle East in the near future.

The shame of it is, I'm not aware of anyone who is a recognized authority or subject matter expert on political evolution in the ME......I'm sure there's a few.

I wonder what their thoughts on what I perceive to be a transition from political violence to political machine would be?

Hard to get decent coverage or big picture synopsis to break it down into manageable bites..,I could be missing some pretty important parts.

I wonder if GRG55 has anything to throw in.

[reggie]

Re: Is this how it will start?

Don't get me wrong....I agree....I just reckon some would be more than a handful to control easily! As covered in another thread....imagine if it were possible to visually see a politicians voting decision matched with related campaign finance......or protest group activity alignment with financial supporters in some way.

Or links between a non-profit executive director and various think tanks or funders, or perhaps a media personality and the events they attend, thought leaders and elite they associate with. Now we're encroaching on the unspoken goals of Facebook type applications.... management cybernetics (i.e. the science of the unknown) in order to reveal more accurate patterns. As the system grows, and as more members of the public utilize such a system, we begin to see the beginnings of a realtime feedback & control mechanism, where the public make decisions based upon the patterns of revealed data, and not necessarily the rhetoric spoken by the system actor. People were talking about, building and deploying such social networking systems in 2000, but it didn't take long for all of those moving in that direction to fail, only to have crap like MySpace come out of nowhere, to be followed by Facebook. Sad fact is, no one in Silicon Valley will fund such ventures, because there are just too many in power positions who have bought into the current Elite agenda.