Bill Black: scathing commentary after Geithner 4/25/12 speech

[EJ]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

I hesitate to disagree with someone I esteem as highly as you, EJ, and I have no bona fides, but the same argument would have had MLK stay at home. I believe the social fabric here has been so degraded that it will rend regardless of what is said, and someone needs to have a resolute voice to call out the malafactors. I recall a chapter in Bresciani-Turoni ending in a description of what he foresaw that rings so true to me today.

I do appreciate Black's voice but he is uniquely qualified for an actual role in a corrective process. Public displays are part of the job application. Bernanke ran for office as a deflation buster since 1983 as near as I can tell. Why should Black as a potential prosecutor disqualify himself with pedantry? Comes across as vain. Same goes for Stockman. A college friend now at the CBO tells me that Stockman's departure was viewed by the rank and file as an act of weakness that helped to precipitate the very developments he now publicly laments. The media will use him as a Ben Stein character in the play.

Remember Ben Stein? Whatever happened to him anyway.

Likewise, I am surprised at your confidence in the euro. Napolean had Beethoven writing a symphony for him, before he didn't! Unifying Europe has been tried in rising tides. I think the expanding euro zone marked the high tide mark (!) in this iteration, driven by leadership, not the general population. America's multiculturalism/identity politics drive since the sixties may foster a part of America's fracturing. Inflationism is so toxic. Hopefully, I am totally wrong. I have a long record of idiocy.

Not confidence in the euro but in the ability a group of men who have talked themselves into a cage and thrown away the key to work together to put out a fire inside that cage that will otherwise consume them all.

Mine is the confidence in man's instinct for self-preservation. Should it prove misplaced in the case of the euro, then a lot of bets are off.

[lektrode]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

Somebody has to keep pointing this out even if they're pissing in the wind.

"Where is Bluto (John Belushi’s classic role in Animal House) when we need him? ...

oh he's still around: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7o9p0fP6cQ
in some sort of re-incarnate fashion or another
(WARNING: if yer at all sensitive about un-pc rants, pls _dont_ clik this link... ;)

[lektrode]

Re: Bill Black: scathing commentary after Geithner 4/25/12 speech

iTulip should set up a page where we could propose and vote for a dream team ....

No EJ. (It would look bad.)

oh... i dunno....

Mr Janszen at treas, or maybe chief of staff, i think, would be simply smashing...

and if we only put a bug in the ear of someone 'important' it would be worth it to keep him directly 'in the game'

(course he likely already threw that one out of his bucket, but hey! we can still dream, right?)

[Bundi]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

His situation is like that of David Stockman, a highly credible guy, but by repeating the same message over and over in the media he comes off as a pedant not a man of action who makes things happen.

Hormats, in The Price of Liberty, doesn't reflect positively on his contribution as Reagan's budget director.

Publicly in 1981..."You could have a big tax cut and a defense buildup and still have a balanced budge by 1984"

Privately Stockman projected in 1981..."The 1981 tax cut and defense buildup would create the largest budget deficit in history by 1984" ...and it did at $130B.

Homats goes on to suggest his analysis showed the 81 tax cut as the largest driver of the Reagan era deficits. Heck, even Cheney was a big critic of this tax policy, early on anyway.

Amazing how every modern President spoke out of both sides of his mouth regarding the balance between tax, domestic spend, and defense agendas. Eisenhower the lone modern exception (in fairness, H.W. Bush also stood on his principles to change an ominous deficit trajectory) as ironically he comporomised on defense spending and also publicly supported the Fed's independence, while in office no less.

Interesting stuff and pretty revealing on how it all works.

[mmr]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

I wonder whether some of the fringe elements who seem to have come to power in Greece (or may do so soon in other peripheral countries) actually recognize the nature of the cage.

I'm not especially close to the situation, but wonder whether one of the new leaders would find it politically advantageous just to blame the fire on their predecessors, or foreigners, or whomever else (as long as they're sure that's where the blame would fall) regardless of the consequences. It would seem much easier just to find an appropriate scapegoat than to address the underlying imbalances once and for all.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

Despite what I’ve read, I believe Stockman was forced out by certain members of congress, and in my opinion, Black long ago passed the point where he had any chance for a role beyond historian/teacher/activist.

Regulatory capture seems almost complete. Warren and the CFPB. The debate over whether the Volcker Rule goes into effect now or two years from now, or (a few days ago) four years from now.

[jpatter666]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

You can add Janet Tavakoli to that list as well.

I don;t know how one would even get a smattering of the corrupt tried anymore. You see no will on the part of the SEC or Justice, just like there was none under Bush.

I guess the quality of online porn must have improved remarkably for those agencies not to be able to find any big fish to prosecute.

I suspect that for the financiers and politicians, it's a case of MAD. They'd destroy each other -- so nothing happens. The Merry-Go-Round will continue until it flies apart.

[jk]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

stockman was the originator of the "rosy scenario" to justify what turned out, in reality, to be huge deficits for that era.

[jabberwocky]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

"For everything, there is a season."
I have none of your insight or knowledge of the players on the stage, but it seems to me that Black may be at an age to act as eminence grise, not an participant. In his public face, he does not seem the pedant to me, nor does Stockman, though both are confident. They must be to speak out. Was Stockman "weak" in quitting, or was he pushed out? I surely don't know.
To compare either to Ben Stein is to believe that their arguments are as empty. I think the comparison is inapt, and not representative of you.
On a separate note, if the wise men of Europe can talk themselves to solvency, I will be impressed. And why not we Americans? I once believed that TPTB would never allow this to happen. That cost me dearly.
I have wondered why, when you bought gold, you didn't go into euro sovereign debt (German) instead of US treasuries when you saw the decline begin. You have been so good at seeing the big picture.

[EJ]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

"For everything, there is a season."
I have none of your insight or knowledge of the players on the stage, but it seems to me that Black may be at an age to act as eminence grise, not an participant. In his public face, he does not seem the pedant to me, nor does Stockman, though both are confident. They must be to speak out.

Fair point. I don't mean to take away from Bill's important efforts. I do think if readers were to review my private exchanges with Bill they might develop a more nuanced view of him.

Was Stockman "weak" in quitting, or was he pushed out? I surely don't know.

I don't know the consensus opinion only that of the one senior staffer that I have known for 30 years and whose opinion I trust.

To compare either to Ben Stein is to believe that their arguments are as empty. I think the comparison is inapt, and not representative of you.

In my defense, I was attempting to quickly come up with an example of a once credible voice that the US media had marginalized into one of the approved roles and in my haste I unfortunately came up with a guy who has been a shill for the banking and finance industry from the get go. Not the best choice, I admit.

On a separate note, if the wise men of Europe can talk themselves to solvency, I will be impressed. And why not we Americans? I once believed that TPTB would never allow this to happen. That cost me dearly.
I have wondered why, when you bought gold, you didn't go into euro sovereign debt (German) instead of US treasuries when you saw the decline begin. You have been so good at seeing the big picture.

Because I see the UST hedging value of gold and euro sovereign debt as overlapping too much. Friends who went into euro bonds instead of gold in 2001 have not done as well, so I still believe the choice of gold over euro bonds was the right one.

[c1ue]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

The interests of a figure with as much credibility as Bill Black are better served by promoting an idea that has a chance of success. There is value in his effort to maintain public awareness of the problem, but I worry that he is expending credibility in the process by preaching to the choir and not moving forward. His situation is like that of David Stockman, a highly credible guy, but by repeating the same message over and over in the media he comes off as a pedant not a man of action who makes things happen. The media are expert at taking people like Black and Stockman and turning them into a kind of circus act. A lifetime of reputation can be expended in a couple of years on FOX News or CNBC. Black runs that risk if he keeps pressing a crime and punishment agenda. I'd like to see the 95% of the banking industry personell who are the good guys be able to operate without having to cope with the 5% who have risen to the top.

That's a fair point.

Since I am not a Select Premium member, I have to ask if you or someone else had proposed a slightly modified agenda than Bill Black's fire and brimstone - specifically to target the 'keystones' in the corruption plus a sufficient number of small fry to make vertically integrated criminal activities much riskier.

As I noted before, I don't personally think it is necessary to nail every single bad egg. I do think it is necessary to find and prosecute those who originated and encouraged the bad behavior - which necessarily entails the 1% of the 1% or whatever. Equally so it is foolish to let the rank and file feel like they will not be prosecuted for 'following orders'.

Bill Black is an information resource. The political will to use this resource to make a move forward must come from leadership - and that is completely lacking as far as I can tell. Thus whether said resource's goals are realistic or not is irrelevant.

As a CEO of a technology company, I'm sure you had the experience of working with engineers who desired to make the perfect product with every 'i' dotted and 't' crossed. And equally, leadership must look beyond the engineer's goals to find the happy medium between making a successful product and company and an acceptable product.

[jabberwocky]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

Thank you so much for your comments. I was inartfull in my question, perhaps. If it is the case that you saw the US dollar as a declining currency, and that the euro was resident in a structurally more sound trade zone, wouldn't buying gold and bunds have made more clear your belief in the ultimate resolution of the Triffin dilemna. Gold rose in all currencies, but the euro from 2002 rose strongly against the dollar. Clearly, I don't see the euro experiment lasting in it's present form, unlike you, and never have, but I am gobsmacked by the corruption here in the US. Maybe I am way to cynical.
As an aside, as fodder in the American health care system, it is heart-breaking to see how corrupted and financialized it has become, to the highest levels. I speak from a position of some knowledge, as a physician with a severe neurological disorder (I know! You guessed that already.) It is truly Orwellian. This may account for my dystemper.

[lektrode]

Re: Bill Black bibliography

Remember Ben Stein? Whatever happened to him anyway.

good question!

apparently he managed to whack somebody's funny bone the wrong way:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...nt-you-to-know

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...ew-john-rennie

along with ebert's apparently: http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2008...eins_mind.html

geeesh... some people have no sense of humor anymore:

[Polish_Silver]

What should Black do?

Why should Black as a potential prosecutor disqualify himself with pedantry?

What is Black supposed to do? Strap on a pistol and start shooting?

Black is educating the public, trying to create a constituency for political change.

Problem is, the two party system is bankrupt.

It is 51% take all at the regional level, third parties can't reach critical mass.

[Prazak]

Re: What should Black do?

What is Black supposed to do? Strap on a pistol and start shooting?

Black is educating the public, trying to create a constituency for political change.

Problem is, the two party system is bankrupt.

It is 51% take all at the regional level, third parties can't reach critical mass.

I am glad he finally cut his hair and trimmed his beard. MSM might have easier time taking him seriously when he looks less like Jerry Garcia.