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After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

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  • After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

    Arab Spring and overbuilt property markets notwithstanding, there's seems some interesting stuff happening in the part of the world that supplies so much hydrocarbon energy to the rest of us.

    Some random snapshots:

    1) Are you watching, British Airways?

    Etihad Airways carries 2.4 million passengers in the first three months of 2012

    Etihad Airways continued its industry-leading growth in the first quarter of 2012, with a 28 per cent rise in revenue to US$ 989 million over the corresponding period in 2011 and passenger numbers soaring by 500,000 to 2.4 million...

    ...The record results were announced as Mr Hogan unveiled plans for a significant expansion of the airline’s global network over the next 18 months.

    These included a daily service to Etihad Airways’ first South America destination and a new service to Vietnam.

    Mr Hogan said the South American flights would begin mid next year with details of the first destination now being finalised. “This a logical next step for us and will mark the sixth continent we serve and our coming of age as a truly global airline,” he said.

    Etihad Airways also planned to replicate the success of its European expansion by introducing additional frequencies to a range of other destinations in Asia and Australia.

    Mr Hogan said: “We continue to outperform much of the global airline industry, with spectacular growth in revenue, the number of passengers flown and freight carried. Our expanded network through organic growth and partnerships has reached a critical mass that is now powering our business forward. Our seat factor hit a record high but yields, particularly in the premium cabins, remain a challenge.”

    Already in the first quarter of 2012 Etihad Airways has announced the launch of non-stop daily flights to Washington, D.C., begun flights to Tripoli, Shanghai and Nairobi, and will soon start services to Basra and Lagos, as well as increase flight frequencies to Düsseldorf, Bangkok, Cairo, Kuwait, and Dammam. Extra capacity will also be added to London Heathrow and Kuala Lumpur.

    The national airline of the United Arab Emirates now has a worldwide network that stretches across 84 cities in 54 countries.

    Etihad Airways will take delivery of seven new aircraft in 2012 – three Airbus A320s and four Boeing B777s, with the first three-class B777-300ER deployed on the London route from July. The carrier’s fleet will have grown to 71 aircraft by year’s end...




    2) Recession? What recession??


    UAE national carrier Etihad Airways carried a record 31,700 tonnes of cargo in March, an increase of 20 per cent on the previous year.

    Total revenues for the month were up 14 per cent on February and 19 per cent on the corresponding period the previous year. In February, Etihad Airways carried 27,900 tonnes of freight.

    Etihad Airways Vice President Cargo, David Kerr said: “Etihad Airways had a record month in March in terms of cargo carried and revenue generated. We saw very strong demand from Asia throughout the month as activity picked up after a slow start to the year. European traffic was also firm, as it has been throughout the first quarter, and demand into and out of America has also rallied...
    ...Etihad Airways cargo operations accounted for up to 20 per cent of the airline’s overall revenues in 2011, when average monthly loads were 25,900 tonnes. The airline has a fleet of seven freighter aircraft.



    3) Go East young man (or "How to avoid listening to yet another lecture on democracy")...


    Bahrain's King Hamad on historic visit to Japan
    Manama: King Hamad Bin Eisa Al khalifa is set to become the first Bahraini ruler to make an official visit to Japan this week.The visit from April 11 to13 is at the invitation of Japan's Emperor Akihito, according to Bahrain's royal court... ..."The King will explore ways of promoting bilateral relations with Japan's Emperor, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and a number of Japanese officials," the court said in a statement. "The visit will also have a positive impact on strengthening bilateral ties and cooperation in the industrial, economic, trade, educational and communication areas."



    4) Where have all the Bimmers gone? (this one's for you Mega):


    Dubai: BMW Group Middle East has reported its best first quarter ever with a sales increase of six per cent to 4,936 BMW and Mini vehicles in the first three months of 2012, compared to the same period in 2011."The 4,936 BMW and Mini vehicles were sold to customers across 14 Middle East markets, marking yet another record in the group's history in terms of regional sales, and clearly demonstrating Middle East customers' desire for top-of-the-range, premium vehicles," the company said in a statement.The UAE remained the largest market, accounting for 51 per cent of BMW Group Middle East's sales in the first quarter. Abu Dhabi was the highest volume selling market, with 1,563 cars sold followed by Dubai with 952 cars sold. Other markets that showed good sales increases included Saudi Arabia by eight per cent, Kuwait by 22 per cent, Qatar by 30 per cent and Lebanon by 41 per cent...

    5) Warren's indefensible...Arab style:


    Montreal: Qatar Airways Ltd plans to place a large business-jet order with Bombardier Inc amid an expansion that may double the size of its charter fleet.Qatar Executive, the carrier's business-jet unit, already flies six Bombardier business jets, including three Challenger 605s. Qatar CEO Akbar Al Baker declined to specify the size of the planned order in a speech yesterday in Montreal."We want to be a major executive-jet provider company," Al Baker told reporters afterwards...

    ...Business-jet sales increased 79 per cent last year at Bombardier, which is also developing the CSeries narrow-body jet to compete with the smallest commercial planes from Boeing and Airbus...
    ...Qatar Airways plans to acquire larger business aircraft "the size of the Airbus A320", too, Al Baker said. The carrier would be interested in Bombardier's Global 7000 and Global 8000 models, which have a list price of about $65 million (Dh238.8 million), he said...

    Last edited by GRG55; April 13, 2012, 04:09 PM.

  • #2
    Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

    It seems a large number of the anecdotes above have to do with industries directly affected by the price of oil-based fuels.

    It does seem logical that an airline based out of an oil producing nation, especially one which further subsidizes fuel costs, would be able to perform well vs. its competitors.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

      Couldn't resist drinking the cool-aid, eh? I'm really crest-fallen.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

        Its not that i hate BMW, far from it......my 1st lover (LOT older then me) drove a 3 series & she loved to drift it. Nope what happened was during the credit boom EVERY Motherf*cker lease-hired one & then drove like assholes.

        Mike.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

          Originally posted by c1ue View Post
          It seems a large number of the anecdotes above have to do with industries directly affected by the price of oil-based fuels.

          It does seem logical that an airline based out of an oil producing nation, especially one which further subsidizes fuel costs, would be able to perform well vs. its competitors.
          1) In one way they all have to do with oil. What else drives the economies in that region? Much the same reason a few countries, including Canada, Australia, and Brazil, largely sidestepped the '08/09 episode...

          2) Low fuel isn't the only reason an airline does well. All these little countries are pursuing a similar strategy, using their geographic location to create a global hub, and the oil money to create the infrastructure for that hub. Nevertheless, let's suppose we subsidize the fuel costs for all the airlines in the USA or Europe. Would they be able to grow traffic, freight and executive jet traffic at the rates this region is seeing?
          Last edited by GRG55; April 15, 2012, 06:07 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

            Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
            1) In one way they all have to do with oil. What else drives the economies in that region? Much the same reason a few countries, including Canada, Australia, and Brazil, largely sidestepped the '08/09 episode...

            2) Low fuel isn't the only reason an airline does well. All these little countries are pursuing a similar strategy, using their geographic location to create a global hub, and the oil money to create the infrastructure for that hub. Nevertheless, let's suppose we subsidize the fuel costs for all the airlines in the USA or Europe. Would they be able to grow traffic, freight and executive jet traffic at the rates this region is seeing?
            my impression is that regions with growing trade surpluses all show similar patterns.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

              According to BP, the following regions are experiencing oil consumption growth.
              Africa, Asia Pacific, Middle East, South and Central America.

              The following regions are experiencing oil consumption declines.
              North America (more recently) and Europe (in many cases peak consumption dating back to the 70s).

              So is the tail (oil) wagging the dog (economies) or are some dogs fundamentally better than others? Is it demographics, productivity, hangover effects from the credit crisis, short term reversible drivers or a true generational inflection point or other? My entire life I understood US oil demand to be basically inelastic. Sure prices mattered and were discussed but more so in the context of geopolitical ramifications. Are we now at a point where some can afford it while others can't? Either because you produce it or have something that makes you a bigger badder dog, thus able to afford it?

              The middle east oil consumption growth is especially interesting given the share of net oil exporter oil production that is ending up on the export market is declining. At least it was through 2010, best I can tell anyway. Specific to crude oil, I don't see a lot of net exporter production growth, therefore that percentage decline is a problem. No? I am not a geologist, economist, and am not a world traveler so I would happily defer to folks like GRG55 and others that have actually accumulated the relevant experience, to provide more thoughtful perspectives on this stuff. It does worry me though.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: After the Crisis...Is the Gulf on the Move Again?

                Originally posted by GRG55
                1) In one way they all have to do with oil. What else drives the economies in that region? Much the same reason a few countries, including Canada, Australia, and Brazil, largely sidestepped the '08/09 episode...

                2) Low fuel isn't the only reason an airline does well. All these little countries are pursuing a similar strategy, using their geographic location to create a global hub, and the oil money to create the infrastructure for that hub. Nevertheless, let's suppose we subsidize the fuel costs for all the airlines in the USA or Europe. Would they be able to grow traffic, freight and executive jet traffic at the rates this region is seeing?
                That does seem logical, but one way to validate this thesis is to see if similar efforts are underway with regards to oceanic freight. Air travel and freight is a high value/high cost proposition, but I am unclear on how significant it is vs. oceanic freight.

                BTW, whether it is due to oil, volume pickup, capacity removal, or whatever, freight costs going into the US just jumped dramatically, and word among the freight forwarders is that it is jumping again soon.

                Comment

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