Big Trouble ?

[Mega]

?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelp...ter-recession/
Mike

[jpetr48]

Re: Big Trouble ?

Yes Eric said this in his Essential Trends commentary and if some geopolitical event does not catalyze this faster than we expect. Now even the finance minister of israel is saying locking iran out of all electronic international payments(SWIFT) might devastate their economy and cause them to think twice in moving forward with nuclear arms. This is highly optimistic an unrealistic thinking.

Here is another take from Hussman who uses principles of Signal processing and unobserved states aka. leading indicators
to say recession on the way
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120312.htm

[Mega]

Re: Big Trouble ?

Its Way WAY over my head...........can't fathom it out at all.
Mike

[lektrode]

Re: Big Trouble ?

yeah, but as ole clint said "but do you feel lucky?"

this is not looking at all 'optimistic'

Assuming conservative reserve ratios of 10% on 0n-demand deposit liabilities, starting from a money supply base of $8.4 trillion as measured by TMS2, that suggests a tripling of the money supply. (See this ESSAY for a full discussion).
And if private banks can’t muster enough monetary largesse to juice the U.S. economy and payrolls at a level sufficient to suit a deflation wary Chairman Bernanke, you can be assured that there is always the next asset purchase program or some other creative monetary tool lying in the wings ready to give private banks a hand in supposedly spurring economic growth.
In other words, this monetary inflation cycle may still have a lot of gas left. And that means at 39 months and 50% and counting, this inflation cycle may end up making the Great Recession look like child’s play.

and still havent been able to retake the prev highs ???

or this:

From our perspective, accepting stock market risk is not presently a venture that is priced to achieve reasonable investment returns (we estimate a likely 4.3% annual total return for the S&P 500 over the coming decade, and a great deal of volatility in achieving that return). Nor is market risk attractive on a speculative basis, given present overbought conditions, overbullish sentiment, and growing set of hostile syndromes (what we call Aunt Minnies) that have historically been associated with negative return/risk tradeoffs. Then again, what keeps slot machines spinning all around the world is the hope - despite the predictably and reliably negative average return/risk tradeoff - that this time will be different, and this spin will work out.

So you have to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky?


Investors Intelligence notes that corporate insiders are now selling shares at levels associated with "near panic action." Since corporate insiders typically receive stock as part of their compensation, it is normal for insiders to sell about 2 shares on the open market for every share they purchase outright. Recently, however, insider sales have been running at a pace of more than 8-to-1. The dollar amounts are even more lopsided, as Trim Tabs reports a recent pace of $13 of insider sales for every $1 of purchases. Indeed, some of the weekly spikes have been to levels that are associated almost exclusively with intermediate market peaks, the most recent being the run-up to the 2007 market peak, the early 2010 peak, and the 2011 peak, all of which resulted in significant intermediate corrections or worse. Of course, it's sometimes the case that insiders are early, and therefore miss part of the tail of a market advance. So it might be worth ignoring the heavy pace of insider selling for a little while. But you have to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky?

well.... DO YA? (mike)....
not me, duude

the only question i got right now is what happens on the 20th, when it 'appears' that the greek problem has 'been solved' ???

wont this cause some air to come rushing out of the PM 'bubble' ???

[photon555]

Re: Big Trouble ?

It will be very interesting to see if Hussman's state variable approach is worthwhile. By worthwhile I mean does it predict outcomes with sufficient precision to make money, or preserve capital on the other hand.