Swift craft(y)

[olivegreen]

And so... this SWIFT thing with Iran... is it the beginning of the "second" world financial system that bypasses the West's?

[GRG55]

Re: Swift craft(y)

And so... this SWIFT thing with Iran... is it the beginning of the "second" world financial system that bypasses the West's?

I doubt it. There are already "second" systems that bypass official channels...money needing laundering, the cash economies in vast parts of the world where credit for consumption is not yet prevalent, and such. But then one shouldn't underestimate the ingenuity of humans to find ways around almost any rule.

This latest move would seem another step to squeeze the windpipe of the Iranian economy. The US-led naval build up going on in the Persian Gulf area right now would appear to be another. Perhaps the USA (and Europe) are getting very serious about trying to achieve what they want without starting another major war in the region.

[sandwind]

Re: Swift craft(y)

I doubt it. There are already "second" systems that bypass official channels...money needing laundering, the cash economies in vast parts of the world where credit for consumption is not yet prevalent, and such. But then one shouldn't underestimate the ingenuity of humans to find ways around almost any rule.

This latest move would seem another step to squeeze the windpipe of the Iranian economy. The US-led naval build up going on in the Persian Gulf area right now would appear to be another. Perhaps the USA (and Europe) are getting very serious about trying to achieve what they want without starting another major war in the region.

For me they want to make Iran week. You don't attack strong, ready to defense country. They did same to Iraq. First sanctions that made Iraq military a shadow of itself then attack. I have heard that 500 000 people died because of those sanctions. So it was quite powerful hit to Iraq economy.

[GRG55]

Re: Swift craft(y)

For me they want to make Iran week. You don't attack strong, ready to defense country. They did same to Iraq. First sanctions that made Iraq military a shadow of itself then attack. I have heard that 500 000 people died because of those sanctions. So it was quite powerful hit to Iraq economy.

Wasn't it Gulf War v.1 that wiped out Iraq's military? After that Saddam had enough left to terrorize unarmed Shia and Kurds...hence the no-fly zones...but not much more. The neighbouring Arab states which had always considered Saddam to have by far the best army in the region were all rather surprised at how quickly it was wiped out by the coalition forces.

[metalman]

Re: Swift craft(y)

Wasn't it Gulf War v.1 that wiped out Iraq's military? After that Saddam had enough left to terrorize unarmed Shia and Kurds...hence the no-fly zones...but not much more. The neighbouring Arab states which had always considered Saddam to have by far the best army in the region were all rather surprised at how quickly it was wiped out by the coalition forces.

good to see you back & posting. we're here killing time... waiting for ej to tell us when the world's gonna end via ka-poom.

[D-Mack]

Re: Swift craft(y)

Wasn't it Gulf War v.1 that wiped out Iraq's military? After that Saddam had enough left to terrorize unarmed Shia and Kurds...hence the no-fly zones...but not much more. The neighbouring Arab states which had always considered Saddam to have by far the best army in the region were all rather surprised at how quickly it was wiped out by the coalition forces.

Don't forget the Iran-Iraq war which lasted to 1988

Iran acknowledged that nearly 300,000 people died in the war; estimates of the Iraqi dead range from 160,000 to 240,000. Iraq suffered an estimated 375,000 casualties, the equivalent of 5.6 million for a population the size of the United States. Another 60,000 were taken prisoner by the Iranians. Iran's losses may have included more than 1 million people killed or maimed.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../iran-iraq.htm

And everybody has it's price, it's not like running the printing press for a couple of hours more costs that much

US army chief says Iraqi troops took bribes to surrender
By Andrew Buncombe in Washington
24 May 2003: (The Independent) Senior Iraqi officers who commanded troops crucial to the defence of key Iraqi cities were bribed not to fight by American special forces, the US general in charge of the war has confirmed.
Well before hostilities started, special forces troops and intelligence agents paid sums of money to a number of Iraqi officers, whose support was deemed important to a swift, low-casualty victory.
General Tommy Franks, the US army commander for the war, said these Iraqi officers had acknowledged their loyalties were no longer with the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, but with their American paymasters. As a result, many officers chose not to defend their positions as American and British forces pushed north from Kuwait.

http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle3515.htm

[doom&gloom]

Re: Swift craft(y)

And so... this SWIFT thing with Iran... is it the beginning of the "second" world financial system that bypasses the West's?

If anything, I think the SWIFT actions will make other countries wake up and take notice to how the US could perform economic warfare upon them unilaterally at any given time. Were I say Switzerland (with the US chasing it over tax haven status) or Russia (who will always take the opposite side of the US) or China (who wants far more control over far many other things in life) or a number of others I would be looking into how to bypass such systems in the future.

[stetts]

Re: Swift craft(y)

Now that's funny!
Stetts

[GRG55]

Re: Swift craft(y)

If anything, I think the SWIFT actions will make other countries wake up and take notice to how the US could perform economic warfare upon them unilaterally at any given time. Were I say Switzerland (with the US chasing it over tax haven status) or Russia (who will always take the opposite side of the US) or China (who wants far more control over far many other things in life) or a number of others I would be looking into how to bypass such systems in the future.

Why don't we look at it from the opposite perspective. Let's suppose the USA withdrew from SWIFT. Where does that leave the USA and where does that leave the rest of the world, comparatively.

The USA is no longer able to exert the sort of unilateral influence that it used to. The USA might have been able to start a war in Iraq a decade ago without the help of major European nations such as Germany and France, but dealing with Iran has required many years of negotiations with many other nations around the world. As time has passed Iran is becoming increasingly isolated. If the USA had the ability to go it alone, it would have done so long before now...diplomatic patience is not an attribute that one commonly associates with the USA...

[doom&gloom]

Re: Swift craft(y)

When one looks at FATCA, one could almost say the US is withdrawing from SWIFT, at least at the personal level as more and more transfers by Americans out of the country become harder and harder, with less places willing to give Americans bank accounts. I figure to be safe I will have to make my farming operations self-sustaining down in South America in case I have any problems sendng money out of the country in the future. That is not the way it should be, but it may be a reality at some point.

[c1ue]

Re: Swift craft(y)

Let's not forget that SWIFT was formed in 1973 primarily as a system for transmitting financial transaction information via telecommunications.

Prior to 1973, nations, corporations and people were perfectly able to conduct financial transactions. In particular, in this era of the Internet much less email, the specific value of SWIFT has long since devolved into incumbency.

Looking back at pre-telephone era communications, there were many techniques used to conduct long distance (and long elapsed time) financial transactions.

I've seen firsthand that some of these are operating already.

I think the more cogent point is: do other nations need Iran's oil? Because if they do, they will find a way to pay for it.

Some examples of the wheels in motion:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8EH08E20120317

India has exempted payment in rupees for oil imports from Iran from hefty local taxes, a move that would help refiners settle some of their oil trade with the sanctions-hit country if the current mechanism through Turkey folds under fresh sanctions.

The finance bill, part of the annual budget presented on Friday, said the exemption in the "national interest" would be implemented from April 1.

India and Iran in January agreed to settle 45 per cent of oil trade in rupees, which are not freely traded on international markets. Iran planned to use rupees to pay for imports from India.

But the mechanism had not been taken up because of the 40 percent withholding tax, which both Indian refiners and the National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) had refused to pay on transactions.

India's State-run Hindustan Petroleum Corp in February said Indian firms cannot pay for Iranian crude imports in rupees unless the federal finance ministry exempted such payment from the tax.

"It is therefore proposed to insert a new clause ... to provide for exemption in respect of any income of a foreign company received in India in Indian currency on account of sale of crude oil to any person in India," subject to certain conditions, including government approval, the bill said.
India buys 12 percent of its oil needs from Iran, worth about $11 billion annually.

Iran, facing ever tighter sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union over its nuclear ambitions, is the second-biggest oil supplier to India while New Delhi is Tehran's second biggest client after China.

Currently Indian refiners are paying for their oil imports through Turkey's Halkbank, but refiners fear this system may fall foul of the new sanctions.

Sources at Indian refiners said they would be making 45 percent of payments in rupees and the remainder through Halkbank as long as that mechanism functions.

"If the Budget is passed by the parliament, we may pay 100 percent through (the rupee mechanism) if the Turkey route stops," said one of the officials.

(Reportinng by Nidhi Verma; Editing by Jo Winterbottom and Jonathan Thatcher)

And another:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...82I0L120120319

Indian traders have struck deals to export 60,000 tons of raw sugar to Iran for March-April delivery, three trade sources said on Monday, marking their first sales of the sweetener to Tehran since western sanctions were tightened at the start of 2012.

The exports are within the ceiling of two million tons of sales already allowed by New Delhi under the open general license (OGL) scheme.

"Traders have contracted exports of 60,000 tons of raw sugar to Iran and the first vessel of 19,800 tons is being loaded at a Mumbai port," a source with the Indian unit of a global trading company told Reuters.

Confirming the deal, another source said Iran would receive the entire quantity between "now and end-April."

They said Iran could buy more sugar from India, the world's top consumer and the biggest producer behind Brazil.
"Until September, Iran needs to import about 324,000 tons of raw sugar," the first source said.

Iran is expected to import 1.6 million tons of sugar in the 2011/12 year, according to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), around 31 percent of the global surplus of 5.17 million tons estimated by the London-based agency.
The Islamic nation bought 1.8 million tons of the sweetener in calendar 2010, the ISO said.

New Delhi and Tehran have set up a mechanism to use the rupee, which is not freely traded on global markets, for 45 percent of oil dues and to pay Indian exporters in order to skirt western sanctions.

India is Iran's second-biggest oil client after China, buying around $11 billion a year, but its own exports to Tehran are worth only about $2.7 billion.

A delegation of Indian exporters has just returned from a trip to Tehran which aimed to boost overseas sales and partially redress the imbalance in trade between the two, but with no major success.

The sugar export deal, however, is in dollars through Dubai-based middlemen, the sources said.

Iran is increasingly finding it difficult to pay in dollars for its crude oil exports, its major foreign currency earner, as the United States and the European Union tighten financial sanctions in an attempt to curb its nuclear ambitions.

As an alternative, Iranian buyers are channeling import payments through unofficial routes involving several layers of middlemen based in Dubai.

Rice exporters from India, Iran's top supplier of the grain, have used the same route but some buyers in the Islamic nation have defaulted on payments.

For the sugar sales, Indian exporters have already received payments from the middlemen involved, these sources said.
Indian sugar mills produced 21.2 million tons of the sweetener between October 1 and March 15, up 14 percent from a year earlier and total output is expected to top 25 million tons. Demand is estimated at around 22 million tons for the year.

The government is considering allowing exports of another 0.5-1 million tons of sugar because of the higher output, after permitting two million tons so far in the 2011/12 season.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Swift craft(y)

sweet crude for sweet stuff perhaps?