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Bank of greece ‘printing its own euros’ says belgian economist

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  • Bank of greece ‘printing its own euros’ says belgian economist

    https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/03...ian-economist/



    Belgian website’s banker mole reveals stunning truth

    Yesterday, the Belgian website Trends led with an investigative article using a mole inside the Bank of Greece. The allegation – put forward by prominent economics writer Johan Van Overtveldt – is that the Bank has run out of money from other sources, and is simply printing its own euros to keep the other Greek majors afloat.

    Johan Van Overtveldt is a director of Belgium-based economics think-tank VKW Metena and a regular columnist for publications such as Knack, Trends, De Tijd and The Wall Street Journal Europe. His main areas of focus are history of economic thought, macroeconomics, industrial economics, international politics and terrorism.

    Thanks to Slogger Gemz, there is a translation of the article below:

    ‘We will call him Dimitriou, from the name on the picture of the waiter who serves us in one of the hotel restaurants in Syntagma Square. After a brief introduction Dimitriou pressed me by the the hand and informs me of the success of the Greek edition of my book.
    It is noteworthy that he immediately takes me to a table which has a clear view of the restaurant’s entrance. Dimitriou is not really nervous, but he knows that he is doing something that he ought not do. That is to say, speaking off the record with a journalist about the Bank of Greece. It is one of the central banks that form part of the system of the ECB.
    Dimitiriou describes to me his job function at the Bank of Greece. It is just under the directorate of the Bank, a high position let us say. Central to his story, is the ELA program. This stands for Emergency Liquidity Assistance, a kind of emergency program where national banks that are part of the ECB system can fall back on in case of an unexpected emergency.
    Ireland uses this mechanism a lot, and for the last few months, the Greek use of the ELA facility has grown substantially. By the end of November this amounted to some €43bn. On the 8th of March the Greek parlament voted that this utilization could go up to €90bn, and according to Dimitriou this will be used. Besides this, Greek banks have called on €73bn in liquidity from the ECB through normal channels* [*Klaus Kastner speaks of this at length].
    Dimitriou tells his story of the ELA and of the Greek bankruptcy: “The normal way of things is that banks with liquidity problems offer assets to the ECB. In exchange euros are transferred to the bank in question. This so-called collateral could be anything: bonds from the bank’s portfolio, outstanding loan packages, and so on. The ECB investigates the value of this collateral and on the basis of this will take 70% to 90% of the value into account. The problem is that Greek banks have nothing more to offer the ECB. With the €73bn already taken up by the banks, these banks are at the end of the road. Given the continued flight of capital [out of Greece] the banks are having to cough up more of their remaining liquid funds. This is now happening through the ELA mechanism.”
    Dimitriou knows that the capital flight from Greece is around €60bn, and this is the puzzling part, around a third of the Greek GDP. [!!] How does this square with the ELA mechanism? Dimitriou looks me straight in the eye and says in a soft voice “Greece is printing its own Euros. The bank of Greece credits the accounts of Greek banks that would have been shutting their doors but for the emergency funds. All Greek banks are effectively bankrupt, it is that simple. These zombie banks can only survive through these ELA injections. Within the ECB system the only collateral for the euros created within the ELA mechanism – is the guarantee of the Greek state. I do not know what you think of this, but my humble opinion is that this guarantee is as good as worthless. You can change all sorts of declarations about the whys and wherefores of these operations, but believe me, the basic fact is simple: only by allowing the Greek central bank to print euros [create euros] can you avoid the implosion of the entire Greek financial system, with all the consequences that this would have for the eurosystem as a whole”.
    The second rescue package that was given to Greece with the debt allowance of €100bn is an eye-catcher is just another fix? Dimitriou says “Yes; first and foremost: how long will this take to become fully operational. Every day the Greek banks are continuing to bleed. Secondly: more than 60% of the aid to Greece does not even come into the country, most of it goes to [private] banks in other countries. Thirdly: how does this aid package help the Greek economy to grow? I simply cannot see this, you know. It wins a little time, in my estimation six months at most and that is being optimistic. In the meantime, the instructions of the government and from the top of the Bank of Greece are quite clear: keep pumping from the ELA well!’
    ———————-
    This is the first evidence I have seen of straightforward money-printing going on. Other indirect methods are of course being used throughout the eurozone, but the imputation of this piece is that this action in Athens is either unauthorised – or Mario Draghi is turning a blind eye to it.
    It once again raises the obvious issue: as the situation in Greece is so patently hopeless – and even what the Troika has offered is a complete sham - why is the EU persevering with
    the pretence that Greece can any longer remain in the eurozone?
    And the answer – as I posted a few days back – is that (as this article confirms) Greece is running up an ever-bigger debt at the ECB; if it leaves the ezone, that will become one whopping great bad debt.

  • #2
    Re: Bank of greece ‘printing its own euros’ says belgian economist

    "Why is the EU persevering..." Maybe they know something we don't. Giant meteorite strike in the next six months? World War III? Bird flu pandemic? Oh, I know; Santa Claus is coming to town and everything will be just fine. Every good little bankster will find a big box of derivatives under their tree. Let's all go have a "convention" in Monaco.
    "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

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    • #3
      Re: Bank of greece ‘printing its own euros’ says belgian economist

      I don't know GEC, it seems to me that it's all a matter of degree. Here's a piece to compare to:

      http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...s-in-a-crisis/

      Essentially, the stress tests model what might happen to bank balance sheets in the event of a major crisis — one which includes a peak unemployment rate of 13 percent, a 50 percent drop in equity prices, and a 21 percent decline in housing prices. The Fed wanted to make sure that all big banks would still have a capital base of at least 5% of their assets in that scenario, which is why it barred Citigroup from returning capital to shareholders. Citi comes out at 5.9% “assuming no capital actions after Q1 2012″, but that number drops to 4.9% “with all proposed capital actions through Q4 2013″.
      But capital levels are only half of the equation; the other half is leverage. And look at the Tier 1 leverage ratio for the different banks under the stressed scenario, on page 27 of the PDF. Citigroup plunges from 7.0% now to just 2.9% after the stress, while Bank of America is much more robust, dropping from 7.1% to 5.3%. And here’s the scary thing: of all the big banks, it’s the ones with investment banking arms which fare the worst. There are 19 different banks listed; seven of them end up with a leverage ratio under 5% in a stressed scenario. Citi’s one; the others include Goldman Sachs (4.5%), Morgan Stanley (4.5%) and JP Morgan Chase (4.0%), its “fortress balance sheet” notwithstanding.
      Now, picture yourself in the kind of crisis where stocks are down 50% and unemployment is up to 13%. And imagine that you discover that the counterparty you use for all your financial transactions is levered 25-to-1. You will change your counterparty. That’s known as a run on the bank, and it’s fatal.
      In other words, banks don’t need to just survive the stress test; they need to be able to keep their customers in a stressed situation as well. If a bank comes near to insolvency, it will go bust, as its customers rush for the exits.
      As Bair says, bank counterparties don’t look at sophisticated risk-based metrics in a crisis: they look at headline numbers like the leverage ratio.
      “This underscores another weakness of the tests: They didn’t really stress liquidity,” said Bair, now a senior adviser at Pew Charitable Trusts, a Washington-based nonprofit. “The investment banks are particularly vulnerable to liquidity failures because they don’t have a large, core deposit base.”
      I guess my point would be that when you're having trouble juggling 20 plates in the air there's an incentive to call attention to the new guy who's trying to juggle 5, especially if 3 of your 20 plates in the air are really a derivative of his 5 plates.

      I remember reading a quote from a banker talking about the peso crisis in 94 and saying it was a great opportunity / excuse for banks to right down hitherto hidden losses under its cover.

      Periphery versus centre.

      When the whole system is this fragile it seems to me there's little distinction between how fragile one area is as opposed to another. But ironically in this fallen world, this is of course the moment where the political incentives to present the most manichean vision of the world are highest.

      But to top it off I really think if Greece's CB is printing (i.e., entering balances) Euros then good on them. Since not stimulating has led, from what I've read, to 30 % of Greek businesses failing during this crisis, what have they possibly got to lose? To my mind, in doing so they more closely resemble a proper central bank than the ECB which seems to be intent on sailing off the edge of a flat earth extant only in their own imagination.
      Last edited by oddlots; March 17, 2012, 11:03 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Bank of greece ‘printing its own euros’ says belgian economist

        Greece is a little special within the EU.

        Now an oddity I ran across while actually perusing the site of the Bank of Greece was this.

        Not only does the BoG make a retail market in British gold sovereigns, it also makes a explicit retail market in Italian and Lebanese counterfeit gold sovereigns of lesser fineness than the original.


        Bulletin of prices of gold bars and gold coins

        Bulletin of prices of gold bars and gold coins
        The Bank of Greece buys and sells gold and gold coins against Euro to individuals. For this purpose, the Bank publishes a bulletin which contains information about the prices at which the Bank of Greece concludes transactions in the following categories:
        • Gold
        • Sovereign: Fineness 0.9166 (7.940-7.988 gram.)
        • Sovereign: Underweight or Of Different Fineness
        • Coins

        Concerning the purchase of gold bars by the Bank of Greece, and following agreement on the price, the client has to present the bars to the Bank of Greece’s counter for genuineness’ and fineness’ control. The equivalent in Euros is paid to the client after completion of checking. In any case, the client is charged with the control expenses.


        BANK OF GREECE
        FINANCIAL OPERATIONS DEPARTMENT
        RESERVES MANAGEMENT SECTION
        Athens 16/3/2012
        BULLETIN OF PRICES OF GOLD BARS AND GOLD COINS Νο. 40 a
        for transactions between BoG and Individuals against EUR (Governor's Act 2456/00)
        for transactions up to the equivelant of EURO 10.000,00
        Valid from 16/3/2012 (08:00) onward until the publication of the next one
        A. GOLD
        99 GOLD OF FINENESS* 0.995 - 1.000 PER GRAM ** 39.04 44.13
        B. SOVEREIGN: FINENESS 0.9166 (7,940 - 7,988 GRAM)
        01 OLD SOVEREIGN 288.02 348.16
        02 NEW SOVEREIGN (minted up to 1973 inclusive) 288.02 348.16
        03 NEW SOVEREIGN (minted from 1974 onward) 288.02 348.16
        04 SOVEREIGN defective in appearance 279.37 337.72
        C. SOVEREIGN : UNDERWEIGHT or OF DIFFERENT FINENESS
        05 UNDERWEIGHT SOVEREIGN OF FINENESS 0.9166 (7,900 - 7,939 GR) 275.58 311.59
        06 UNDERWEIGHT SOVEREIGN OF FINENESS 0.9166 (7,500 - 7,899 GR) 261.62 295.82
        07 UNDERWEIGHT SOVEREIGN OF FINENESS 0.9166 (7.000 - 7.499 GR) 244.18 276.10
        08 ITALIAN MINTING SOVEREIGN OF FINENESS 0.905 266.45 301.29
        09 LEBANESE MINTING SOVEREIGN OF FINENESS 0.720 212.99 240.96
        D. COINS
        80 FINENESS 0.900 PER GRAM 34.60 39.13
        81 FINENESS 0.9166 PER GRAM 35.24 39.85
        83 UNDERWEIGHT OF FINENESS 0.900 PER GRAM 34.25 38.73
        84 UNDERWEIGHT OF FINENESS 0.9166 PER GRAM 34.88 39.44
        85 ITALIAN or LEBANESE MINTING OF FINENESS 0.900 PER GRAM 33.37 37.74
        86 LEBANESE MINTING OF FINENESS 0.720 PER GRAM 26.69 30.20
        87 LEBANESE MINTING OF FINENESS 0.600 PER GRAM 22.24 25.17
        88 LEBANESE MINTING OF FINENESS 0.500 PER GRAM 18.52 20.98
        * Fineness = content in pure gold
        ** Regarding the gold bars bought by the Bank of Greece, the customer, after agreeing the price with the Bank, should deposit the bars with the Bank so that the fineness of gold can be checked. Following the fineness check, the value of gold will be settled in EUR. At all cases, the client will be charged with the fineness check expenses.

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