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**don** · March 22, 2012, 10:53 AM

Re: Meanwhile, Back at the Pipeline

Russia rules Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar

Nabucco - the alleged gas Holy Grail from the Caspian Sea to Europe, 4,000 kilometers from Turkey to Austria - is the perennial Pipelineistan soap opera.

Part of the gas to supply Nabucco may come from Azerbaijan. Another part might - a very problematic "might" - come from Turkmenistan. But every self-respecting energy analyst knows Nabucco could only possibly work if it was supplied by natural gas from Iran. That will happen over Washington's collective dead body.

So, once again, the spineless European Union (EU) political "leadership" - once again acting like the poodles of choice - gloriously sabotaged what it has always billed as its most ambitious energy project; caved in to US pressure; and ultimately sacrificed its energy independence. And all this from people who never lose an opportunity to decry that Europe is a "gas hostage" to Russia's Gazprom.

As with all things Pipelineistan, there are layers and layers of nuance. Moscow is pulling out all the stops to prevent Iran from eventually joining Nabucco - because its top policy agenda is to extend its stranglehold over the EU's gas supply to 30%.

The crucial Azerbaijan gas angle is centered on the huge Shah Deniz 2 fields. For what is called the Southern Corridor, via Italy, two possible pipelines are in competition. Then there are two others competing on a Northern/Balkans route; one of them is Nabucco; the other, faithful to the acronym-laden ethos of Pipelineistan, is the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP). Only next year will the world know the end chapter for this never-ending soap opera.

For the Southern Corridor, the favorite is TAP (Trans-Adriatic pipeline), a Swiss-German-Norwegian joint venture. TAP will use infrastructure already in place and only needs investment in a short underwater pipeline from Greece to Italy. Norway's Statoil, crucially, is a 25.5% partner in the exploitation of Shah Deniz 2 fields; that makes things way easier.

For the Northern/Balkans route, the fat lady may be about to sing for Nabucco. The favorite to win is a BP project, much cheaper than Nabucco, and with no need to use Turkmen gas.

BP - of Gulf of Mexico polluting fame - happens to be the major stockholder of Shah Deniz 2. Azerbaijan - mired in corruption - can be reasonably described as BP country. Even his close ally Washington knows Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is something of a Mafia boss. The Azeris, by the way, happen to be very popular in Washington courtesy of the Israeli lobby.

We play chess the win-win way

A certified winner in this complex Pipelineistan battle is Turkey. After all, any gas from Azerbaijan towards Europe must transit through Turkey. Since last December, in fact, Turkey and Azerbaijan have a memorandum in place committing both to the construction of the TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Pipeline). TANAP will eventually become part of the Southern Corridor.

Even if Azerbaijan decides to sell its extra gas wealth to Russia, Turkey also wins. Turkey has authorized the underwater passage of the Russian-Italian (Vladimir Putin-Silvio Berlusconi?) South Stream pipeline in its territory in return for even more robust trade and energy ties with Russia.

But most of all Russia wins. South Stream is a go. Gazprom for its part has increased its charm offensive all across Central Asia; this means that the more Gazprom imports gas from them, the less gas will be available for Europe (unless it is sold by Russia ...)

With Putin back in the presidency in May, the strategy that he laid out back in 2000 is graphically paying all kinds of dividends.

Gazprom's head Alexei Miller - appointed by Putin - is totally invested in creating a complex economy of scale with energy supplying countries in the region, applying a very Chinese "win-win" mentality.

The leadership in Azerbaijan, for instance, knows very well that Russia is the only player capable of determining what goes on in the Caucasus - and on top of it offers great energy deals. So here's the writing on the wall; Russia under Putin will be even more influential from the Caucasus to Central Asia.

For this to work, Russia had to torpedo Nabucco. In fact, the European-wide financial crisis took care of it. Nabucco may end up costing a staggering $25 billion - and counting. Nabucco's construction "might" start by the end of 2014 and be finished by the end of 2017; but all dates have been incessantly postponed for years. Azerbaijan could only provide less than half of the gas. Nobody anywhere really knows what will be Turkmenistan's game. And Iran has been ruled out by His Master's Voice - Washington.

Still, the TCP (Trans-Caspian Pipeline) - between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan - remains in the cards. That, in theory, would be the gate for Europe to finally have (indirect) access to the Central Asian energy wealth of the Caspian Sea. Ashgabat and Baku seem to be in synch about it - the whole thing helped by EU-brokered negotiations. Turkey has also endorsed it. But Russia under Putin will do whatever it takes to bomb the TCP idea.

Still the most pressing question seems to be whether anybody in Brussels will wake up from its masochistic haze, stop the sanction nonsense, and talk energy with Iran.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC23Ag04.html

**GRG55** · March 22, 2012, 12:23 PM

Re: Meanwhile, Back at the Pipeline

Originally posted by don View Post

Russia rules Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar

...Still the most pressing question seems to be whether anybody in Brussels will wake up from its masochistic haze, stop the sanction nonsense, and talk energy with Iran.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC23Ag04.html

And talk. And talk. And talk. Because that's all that will ever happen with the Iranians for years, and likely decades. Not even the Chinese or the Indians consider Iran a reliable supplier. In the extraordinary event that you manage to get a contract signed with the Iranians, you can be assured it will be re-opened for re-negotiation before the ink is dry on the signature line. The idea that anybody would backstop a major gas pipeline based on Iranian supply is laughable...

**don** · March 22, 2012, 12:53 PM

Re: Meanwhile, Back at the Pipeline

Energy - the Transparent Industry

**don** · May 20, 2013, 06:58 AM

Syria and the Pipeline to Hell

So Bashar al-Assad has spoken - exclusively, to Argentine daily El Clarin (there's a huge Syrian diaspora in Argentina, as well as in neighboring Brazil).

Cutting through the fog of Western hysteria, he made some valuable points. The record shows that, yes, the regime has agreed several times to talk to the opposition; but myriad "rebel" groups with no credible, unified leadership have always refuted. So there's no way a ceasefire, eventually agreed on a summit - such as the upcoming US/Russia Geneva conference - can be implemented. Assad makes some sense when he says, "We can't discuss a timetable with a party if we don't know who they are."

Well, by now everyone following the Syrian tragedy knows who most of them are. One knows that the Un-Free Syrian Cannibals, sorry, Army (FSA) is a ragged collection of warlords, gangsters and opportunists of every possible brand, intersecting with hardcore jihadis of the Jabhat al-Nusra kind (but also other al-Qaeda-linked or inspired outfits).

It took Reuters months to finally admit that jihadis are running the show on the ground. [1] A "rebel" commander even complained to Reuters, "Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad." What he didn't say is that the real effective outfit is al-Qaeda-linked.

Syria is now Militia Hell; much like Iraq in the mid-2000s, much like the Western-imposed, "liberated" Libyan failed state. This Afghanization/Somalization is a direct consequence of NATO-GCC-Israel axis interference. [2] So Assad is also right when he says the West is adding fuel to the fire, and is only interested in regime change, whatever the cost.

What Assad didn't say

Assad is not exactly a brilliant politician - so he wasted a golden opportunity to explain to Western public opinion, even briefly, why GCC petro-monarchies Saudi Arabia and Qatar, plus Turkey, have the hots for setting Syria on fire. He could have talked about Qatar wanting to hand over Syria to the Muslim Brotherhood, and Saudi Arabia dreaming of a crypto-emirate colony. He could have talked about them both being terrified of Shi'ites in the Persian Gulf harboring legitimate Arab Spring ideals.

He could have pointed to the absolute shambles of Turkey's "zero problems with our neighbors" foreign policy; one day there's a triad of collaboration Ankara-Damascus-Baghdad, the next Ankara wants regime change in Damascus and routinely antagonizes Baghdad. And on top of it Turkey is puzzled to see Kurds emboldened from northern Iraq to northern Syria.

He could have detailed how Britain and France inside NATO, not to mention the US, as well as their petro-monarch puppets are using the disintegration of Syria to hit at Iran - and how none of these actors supplying the weaponizing and plenty of cash give a damn about the suffering of the "Syrian people". The only thing that matters is strategic targets.

While Bashar al-Assad was talking, Russia was walking. President Vladimir Putin - well aware that the Geneva talks are being derailed by various actors even before they happen - moved Russian naval vessels to the Eastern Mediterranean; and offered Syria a batch of ultra-modern ground-to-sea Yakhont missiles plus a batch of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles - the Russian equivalent to the American Patriot. Not to mention that Syria already has Russian SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles.

Now try, any one of you NATO-GCC gang, even bypassing the UN, to unleash a mini-Shock and Awe on Damascus. Or to install a no-fly zone. Qatar and the House of Saud, militarily, are a joke. The Brits and France are seriously tempted, but they don't have the means - or the stomach. Washington has the means - but no stomach. Putin was dead sure the Pentagon would read his message accordingly.

And don't forget Pipelineistan

Assad could also have talked about - what else - Pipelineistan. It would have taken him two minutes to explain the meaning of the agreement for the US$10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline that was signed in July 2012. This crucial Pipelineistan node will export gas from the South Pars field in Iran (the largest in the world, shared with Qatar), through Iraq, towards Syria, with a possible extension to Lebanon, with certified customers in Western Europe. It's what the Chinese call a "win-win" situation.

But not for - guess who? - Qatar and Turkey. Qatar dreams of a rival pipeline from its North field (contiguous with Iran's South Pars field), through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and finally Turkey (which bills itself as the privileged energy transit hub between East and West). Final destination: once again, Western Europe.

As in all Pipelineistan matters, the crux of the game is bypassing both Iran and Russia. That's what happens with the Qatari pipeline - frantically US-supported. But with the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, the export route may originate nowhere else than in Tartus, the Syrian port in the Eastern Mediterranean that hosts the Russian navy. Gazprom would obviously be part of the whole picture, from investment to distribution.

Make no mistake; Pipelineistan - once again tied up with bypassing both Russia and Iran - explains a great deal about why Syria is being destroyed.

The EU oil-for-al-Qaeda scheme

Meanwhile, the real Syrian army - backed by Hezbollah - is methodically retaking strategic Al-Qusayr out of "rebel" control. Their next step would be to look east - where Jabhat al-Nusra is merrily profiting from another typical EU blunder; the decision to lift oil sanctions on Syria. [3]

Syria Comment blogger Joshua Landis drew the necessary conclusions; "Whoever gets their hands on the oil, water and agriculture, holds Sunni Syria by the throat. At the moment, that's al-Nusra. Europe opening up the market for oil forced this issue. So the logical conclusion from this craziness is that Europe will be funding al-Qaeda." Call it the EU oil-for-al-Qaeda scheme.

Southwest Asia - what the West calls the Middle East - is bound to remain a privileged realm of irrationality at play. As things stand in Syria, instead of a no-fly zone what should really fly is an "all fly peace" - with everyone and his neighbor involved; US, Russia, the EU, but also Hezbollah, Israel and of course Iran, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has keenly stressed. [4]

Way beyond the Western obsession with regime change, what the already troubled Geneva conference could yield is a deal following the Syrian constitution - which, by the way, is absolutely legitimate, adopted in 2012 by a majority of votes of the real, suffering, "Syrian people". This could even lead to Assad not running for president in elections scheduled for 2014. Regime change, yes. But by peaceful means. Will NATO-GCC-Israel let it happen? No.

Notes:
1. Insight: Syria's Nusra Front eclipsed by Iraq-based al Qaeda, Reuters, May 17, 2013.
2. North Atlantic Treaty Organization-Gulf Cooperation Council-Israel.
3. EU decision to lift Syrian oil sanctions boosts jihadist groups, Guardian, May 19, 2013.
4. Russia says Iran must take part in proposed Syria talks, Reuters, May 16, 2013.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His also wrote Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-200513.html

**GRG55** · May 20, 2013, 07:10 AM

Re: Syria and the Pipeline to Hell

Forget about "Pipelineistan". This is the Great Game redux...there's a lot more important moves happening on the chess board than a gas pipeline...