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Re: Ray Dalio on Deleveragings
Several interesting points - none to do with the analysis.
1) Dalio is calling the present period a "beautiful deleveraging" - thus confirming his bankster status
2) He carefully chooses his periods of "beautiful deleveraging" and "ugly deleveraging" - the Great Depression 1929-1932 was ugly, but 1933 on was beautiful. This isn't incorrect from a certain view, but equally it leaves out that the US economy in 1937 was in no way in good condition and that World War II and its massive inflation were what really did the trick.
Equally so Britain's 1947-1969 is a "beautiful deleveraging" while the tripling of the UK unemployment rate in the 1970s, followed by Thatcher's austerity, is ignored (as is the role of North Sea oil).
3) He also 'grades' deleveraging not by the state of the economy post-deleveraging, but by a combination of %debt deleveraged per year and nominal GDP growth rate.
This isn't entirely incorrect but the differences between a 350% debt/GDP economy with a 9.5% growth rate vs. a 300% debt/GDP economy with a 2% growth rate would seem to be significant.
Ultimately it can be inferred that "beautiful deleveraging" is any one where central bank monetary printing is only sufficient to help banksters, but not sufficient to fix the debt problem. -
Re: Ray Dalio on Deleveragings
Transcript of Dalio recently at the Council on Foreign Relations
http://www.cfr.org/united-states/ceo...y-dalio/p29012Comment
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