Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

[jpetr48]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Jk

Thanks for the videos. I watched a good part of first one and find Grant basic premise follows EJ. The problem with most of us ( I used to be in this camp) is we do not understand he psychology of investing or trading. When I first started to manage my own funds after Money managers had, I ignored understanding how fear of loss and greed for gain play a huge role. This was my pride thinking that I am not like anyone else. Thankfully I did not lose much if any in trading. Now I do invest and hold for the duration of a trend based on macro indicators in large part due to EJ you and other Itulip contributors.

Does that mean I do not use what I learned from trading, of course not. Rather I use simple technical analysis based on weekly cloud support level combined with EJ and other macro research to stay the path until either my weekly support is violated or the secular trend is over and the herd has entered.

Overcoming fear/greed + sound macro analysis + simple technical analysis
Btw gold or gtu has not broken weekly support as silver did and still remains as EJ says a long term hold.

[jk]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

there'a a nice chart here, [3rd chart down] highlighting gold's orderly rise over the last several years. worth a look.

[jpetr48]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

there'a a nice chart here, [3rd chart down] highlighting gold's orderly rise over the last several years. worth a look.

What a find! Thank you. Bookmarked.

[FRED]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

What a find! Thank you. Bookmarked.

Here's an update version of the charts we've posted here since EJ's October 2006 What Gold Bubble? article.

Log scale base 5 from $25 to our target range since 2001 of $5000.

[Mega]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

....................so its not getting KILLED!

[raja]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

This chart seems to show that the number of gold owners is directly related to the price of gold.
If that's the case, then EJ is predicting a gold-price peak sometime in 2012, after which the gold price begins a relatively rapid decline. So, 2012 would be the time to sell gold.

I don't agree with that scenario . . . but it will be easy to track and see if EJ is right.
Mark your calendars . . . .

[touchring]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

This chart seems to show that the number of gold owners is directly related to the price of gold.
If that's the case, then EJ is predicting a gold-price peak sometime in 2012, after which the gold price begins a relatively rapid decline. So, 2012 would be the time to sell gold.

I don't agree with that scenario . . . but it will be easy to track and see if EJ is right.
Mark your calendars . . . .

+1

[metalman]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

This chart seems to show that the number of gold owners is directly related to the price of gold.
If that's the case, then EJ is predicting a gold-price peak sometime in 2012, after which the gold price begins a relatively rapid decline. So, 2012 would be the time to sell gold.

I don't agree with that scenario . . . but it will be easy to track and see if EJ is right.
Mark your calendars . . . .

chart shows innovators 2001 - 2004, early adopters 2004 - 2009, late majority 2009 - 2015 & laggards 2015 on.

by the chart look for gold to peak between 2012 & 2015.

i'll mark my calendar for a $1500 - $5000 peak 2012 - 2015.

[tfthorpe]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

May I interpret this chart for you?

As the area under the curve is the total of gold adopters, the Y axis must be the number of people buying their first Krugerrand that day. The prices hovering near the line, we already know. Towards the end of 2012, with the gold price at $3k and increasing fast, the largest number of new people are scrambling for their first coin. Around 2015, gold hits $55k and Freegold is declared across the land, but amid total economic collapse, fewer people can afford the price of that first coin. You see that white dot just before the curve hits the X axis? That's Warren Buffet buying in at $100k.

[davidstvz]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

The chart illustrates the type of people who are holding gold not how much they're holding or the price of gold. The point is that the later the adopter the more likely the person is reactionary rather than basing their holdings on sound analysis. This will increase the volatility of gold as we go forward as the reactionaries drive the price higher when it's going up, and lower when it's going down.

I guess this dynamic is responsible for the "head and shoulders" effect (you can observe this effect in silver last year). The head is the market peak, and the shoulder that follows is the reactionaries who didn't realize the peak was a local maximum, so the shoulder doesn't go as high as the head because the sound analysis investors have gotten out and stayed out.

[raja]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

So, this chart does not show the cumulative number of gold owners, but rather the number of gold owners of a particular adoption type, the type determined by when they first bought gold.

What I think would be more interesting charts would be:

1. Predicition of gold price over time.

2. Prediction of the number of gold owners over time.

After all, what we all really want to know is when to hold, and when to sell.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

So, this chart does not show the cumulative number of gold owners, but rather the number of gold owners of a particular adoption type, the type determined by when they first bought gold.

What I think would be more interesting charts would be:

1. Predicition of gold price over time.

2. Prediction of the number of gold owners over time.

After all, what we all really want to know is when to hold, and when to sell.

I believe that this is just a general model of a bubble mania, not meant to be an exact prediction of the future.

[deeper]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Thank you EJ. Very clear answer. Those are hard to find sometimes.