Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

[deeper]

Congrats to Eric for his call on Silver @ 48.

However, did Eric not see the gold drop from 1900?

[nedtheguy]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

redacted

[aaron]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Howdy!
Good to see a new poster.
He made an extremely accurate gold call; he called the end of 2011's price at the beginning of 2011.

[jpatter666]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Congrats to Eric for his call on Silver @ 48.

However, did Eric not see the gold drop from 1900?

EJ has said before he doesn't really look at the short-term trends. He's looking for long-term tops (read: silver, stocks, housing) and long-term buys (gold and bonds in 2001).

Because the markets have gotten so manipulated and politicized, buys (or sells) in this market are fraught with danger. The standard rules no longer apply. EJ has been doing lots of research trying to find his (and hopefully our!) way out of this rat's nest.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Congrats to Eric for his call on Silver @ 48.

However, did Eric not see the gold drop from 1900?

The difference is that EJ felt that silver would drop to 25 and would not get back anywhere near 49 for a long time. EJ had already said that gold would end lower than 1900.

[Raz]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Congrats to Eric for his call on Silver @ 48.

However, did Eric not see the gold drop from 1900?

EJ's overview and forecast was quite accurate as he fine-tuned it during the year. He's usually a bit too conservative, witness Gold rising $300 above his 2011 forecast. He clearly said to be prepared for increasing volatility and said that from June thru December 2011 was going to be a "wild ride".


January 11th, 2011: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...86412#poststop

January 20th, 2011: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...87318#poststop

February 19th, 2011: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...90078#poststop

May 5th, 2011: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...606#post196606



I find his price projections for the PMs to be very good and his macroeconomic forecasting second to none.

[EJ]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Yes, I did see a correction coming but, no, I did not say anything about it because it is not meaningful in the context of the rise since 2001 when we invested. Silver, on the other hand, made a classic bubble peak after 10 years and crashed.

This is generally not a trading site. For short-term trading ideas there's Traders Corner where Finster and others who know what they're doing discuss trades expertly and in detail.

We bought gold in 2001 @ $270. The factors driving my long-term gold forecast since then remain in place. Since then I've made only one short-term (intra-year) call, in 2008 when I forecast a 20% correction that turned to be a 25% correction. That was the last short-term forecast I had any confidence in.

To evaluate price rises like the one we saw last summer and declines like the one we've just seen, the thing to keep in mind is that the composition of investors in gold in the Late Majority stage of market development is different than in previous stages.

As their mindset, sensitivities, and motivations are not the same as for the groups that dominated earlier stages, they react differently to news. The sub-group of new, uncommitted investors buy and sell re-actively. They do not think and act strategically. Gold has been primarily a strategic investor's market from 2001 to 2009. Since 2009 it has become more speculative.

Some day gold will trade at a level of volatility that requires careful attention, but the moves we've seen over the past few days are not indicative. Further discussion here. For context, see below.

[Mega]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

So, still on course for $3,000?
Can't belive read the newspaper cutting....."Silver $38.65......." (In 1980 !!!!! FFS !)
Mike

[davidstvz]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

I have a question about short and sharp spike such as the Jan 1981 spike to 850. Would a PM buying/selling company like Apmex become reluctant to buy metals at such high prices if they felt a top was imminent? I guess with the price high, sellers limited and buyers scare, their exposure would naturally be low (especially if they can legally sell the metal you've promised to ship to them before it arrives).

[santafe2]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Gold will continue its crazy walk upward as long as the Fed continues to expand the availability of US$. From an investment point of view, this is a good time to begin gold accumulation. It's not a matter of a missed interim movement in the gold market, one should be looking at the expansion of dollar availability vs. gold. If you think gold will be mined and made available faster than the US$, keep cash at home. If not, invest in metals. Gold is a good choice. Silver is as well. Watch these markets, find your investing center. No one can help if you don't have a point of view that can be directed.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

I have a question about short and sharp spike such as the Jan 1981 spike to 850. Would a PM buying/selling company like Apmex become reluctant to buy metals at such high prices if they felt a top was imminent? I guess with the price high, sellers limited and buyers scare, their exposure would naturally be low (especially if they can legally sell the metal you've promised to ship to them before it arrives).

Good question.

The spike in gold came in January of '80.

I’ve often wondered if there are any itulip members who were trading PM’s then.

Surrounding political events…US hostages taken in Iran (November ‘79) Soviet invasion of Afganistan (December ‘79), Hunt brothers buying silver as it goes from 5.00 to 50.00 in one year, double-digit inflation.

My understanding is that near the peak you could still sell and buy, but that on the way up you might be paying 20 % over spot to purchase and when dealers got nervous, you had to accept 35 % less than spot to unload.

[aaron]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

I notice Apmex has pretty good sales before a short term correction (both silver and gold).

[jk]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

if you haven't already, i strongly urge you to look at the 2 short videos here
they review the gold market of the 70's, and show the several "opportunities" you had to get rid of your gold prematurely because of substantial corrections.
you've got to get clear what part of your gold holdings are for investment, and what part - if any- is for trading.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

Good question.

The spike in gold came in January of '80.

I’ve often wondered if there are any itulip members who were trading PM’s then.

Surrounding political events…US hostages taken in Iran (November ‘79) Soviet invasion of Afganistan (December ‘79), Hunt brothers buying silver as it goes from 5.00 to 50.00 in one year, double-digit inflation.

My understanding is that near the peak you could still sell and buy, but that on the way up you might be paying 20 % over spot to purchase and when dealers got nervous, you had to accept 35 % less than spot to unload.

I bought a small amount of gold in 1979 which I never sold and then bought some more at about $600 on the way back down believing it would go back up (of course it finally did). I also bought silver at about $14 on the way back down. Also got my son (13) and daughter(9) to buy some. My daughter, who is still amazingly frugal to this day, made me sign a contract saying the silver would earn more than if she had it in a CD or I had to buy it from her paying the CD rate. I finally bought it back from her with interest in 1991. My son still has his silver.

[davidstvz]

Re: Did Eric miss this Gold drop???

My understanding is that near the peak you could still sell and buy, but that on the way up you might be paying 20 % over spot to purchase and when dealers got nervous, you had to accept 35 % less than spot to unload.

Ah, that makes sense. I don't think I want to cut it that close (as jk addresses), but just in case something sudden happens, I'd like to know what to expect from dealers.