Japan's export to China shows that China's economy has in fact contracted in the last 2 months!

[touchring]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/20...t_14653190.htm

Shipments to China, Japan's largest market, fell by 20 percent year-on-year, the biggest decline since August 2009. Exports to the European Union slid 7.7 percent while shipments to the United States advanced 0.6 percent.

[davidstvz]

Re: Japan's export to China shows that China's economy has in fact contracted in the last 2 months!

I guess China doesn't announce accurate economic measures to the world so this sort of thing is all we have to determine how things are going in China? If China is slipping bad enough that imports are declining significantly, what does that mean for the rest of the world? Woudln't that slow the Chinese economy, take some pressure off world oil prices and generally help the United States (while harming BRIC nations who export raw materials for manufacture)?

[c1ue]

Re: Japan's export to China shows that China's economy has in fact contracted in the last 2 months!

It shouldn't be all that surprising that Japan's exports to China have fallen 20% year on year, given that the yen to dollar (and hence to yuan) went from 95 yen/dollar in June 2010, to 83 yen/dollar in January 2011, to 75/76 yen/dollar up until 2 weeks ago.

Given that there is absolutely some lag time in exports, the 95 to 75 shift is itself 20%.

Also, just because China is Japan's largest export market doesn't mean squat in terms of China's exports. A fall in Japan's exports to China means a fall in at least one category of China's imports, not China's exports.

This in turn would suggest an increase in China's balance of trade, though the actual volume of total trade (China's imports + exports) theoretically should decrease.

All in all, a thoroughly unsupported headline.

[touchring]

Re: Japan's export to China shows that China's economy has in fact contracted in the last 2 months!

It shouldn't be all that surprising that Japan's exports to China have fallen 20% year on year, given that the yen to dollar (and hence to yuan) went from 95 yen/dollar in June 2010, to 83 yen/dollar in January 2011, to 75/76 yen/dollar up until 2 weeks ago.

Given that there is absolutely some lag time in exports, the 95 to 75 shift is itself 20%.

Also, just because China is Japan's largest export market doesn't mean squat in terms of China's exports. A fall in Japan's exports to China means a fall in at least one category of China's imports, not China's exports.

This in turn would suggest an increase in China's balance of trade, though the actual volume of total trade (China's imports + exports) theoretically should decrease.

All in all, a thoroughly unsupported headline.

You fail to take into consideration of:-

1. Inflation. Same dollar value, lesser goods.

2. The Chinese Yuan is pegged to the dollar but exports to the US has risen and not fallen. And exports to Europe with all the PIIGS woes has fallen only by 7%.

[c1ue]

Re: Japan's export to China shows that China's economy has in fact contracted in the last 2 months!

You fail to take into consideration of:-

1. Inflation. Same dollar value, lesser goods.

2. The Chinese Yuan is pegged to the dollar but exports to the US has risen and not fallen. And exports to Europe with all the PIIGS woes has fallen only by 7%.

You still aren't getting it.

The article is about Japan's exports, not China's.

It is impossible to extrapolate China's export situation from Japan's export situation, because they are not directly related.