Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

[Mega]

Oh Lord please give Mega $200 oil, please oh please....
Mike
PS Without war if you could.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Oh Lord please give Mega $200 oil, please oh please....
Mike
PS Without war if you could.

you really want that global depression, eh mate?

[Shakespear]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

PS Without war if you could.

In your dreams

[mooncliff]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

People really do not understand the true value of oil. It is treated with contempt because it has been too cheap for too long. $200 would be a good place to start.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Let's review again:

(tar sands) + (fracking) + (deep-sea oil) + (coal-to-oil synthetic) + (southern Calif offshore) + (unexplored areas) + (bitumen) + (Falkland Islands) + (conservation) + (recycling) + (vegetable oils) + (oil field rejuvenation) + (alternative fuels e.g, nat-gas) =
oil under $80/barrel forever. There could be price spikes due to war and war fears, even during periods of economic mis-management and inflation caused by the central banks of the world, but otherwise, oil might remain reasonable in price forever.

And I would bet that the North Sea hasn't even begun to be tapped nor even explored. In southern California, there are natural oil seeps leaking-out oil into the sea, everywhere offshore. Even off the coast of central California, there is oil seeping into the sea...... Is it the same in your North Sea region, too?

[Bundi]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Let's review again:

(tar sands) + (fracking) + (deep-sea oil) + (coal-to-oil synthetic) + (southern Calif offshore) + (unexplored areas) + (bitumen) + (Falkland Islands) + (conservation) + (recycling) + (vegetable oils) + (oil field rejuvenation) =
oil under $80/barrel over the long run. There could be price spikes due to war and war fears, even in periods of economic mis-management and inflation caused by the central banks of the world, but otherwise, oil might remain reasonable in price forever.

And I would bet that the North Sea hasn't even begun to be tapped nor even explored. In southern California, there are natural oil seeps leaking-out oil into the sea, everywhere offshore. Even off the coast of central California, there is oil seeping into the sea...... Is it the same in your North Sea region, too?

Steve,

Thank you for the alternative perspective. A lot of sentiment here is wedded to a different set of dynamics. I wonder if there may be much more in the ground than is assumed. That said, any specific research and documentation or arguments for your thinking may go a long ways toward broadening the scope of the debate and most importantly deepening the understanding of a critically important topic. Clearly Steve, even you must acknowledge something has changed and a period of transition is in place. How much room we have to navigate this transition on our terms versus getting directed by the realities on the ground can only be answered by facts.

I am open to your assertion that the earth has significant untapped hydrocarbon reserves (there has been a tremendous amount of sun energy radiating the earth for billions of years line of thinking). I'm interested though in the scenarios in which you see $80 per barrel of oil as the long term prevailing price.

Thanks for adding your perspective and taking a different view.

[Shakespear]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Steve, can you buy marijuana legally? If yes, have a joint and look at some of the nice graph here

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil...-Twilight.html

[dbarberic]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Let's review again:

(tar sands) + (fracking) + (deep-sea oil) + (coal-to-oil synthetic) + (southern Calif offshore) + (unexplored areas) + (bitumen) + (Falkland Islands) + (conservation) + (recycling) + (vegetable oils) + (oil field rejuvenation) + (alternative fuels e.g, nat-gas) =
oil under $80/barrel forever. There could be price spikes due to war and war fears, even during periods of economic mis-management and inflation caused by the central banks of the world, but otherwise, oil might remain reasonable in price forever.

And I would bet that the North Sea hasn't even begun to be tapped nor even explored. In southern California, there are natural oil seeps leaking-out oil into the sea, everywhere offshore. Even off the coast of central California, there is oil seeping into the sea...... Is it the same in your North Sea region, too?

Reserves aren't important, production flow rate and the ability of the production to meet America's daily consumption of ~20 million barrels of oil is what is important.

All the sources you mentioned above still have to explored, located, ROI/business case approved, drilling equipment identified and leased, drilling team assembled, 3-5 years for exploratory drilling to be completed, and another 3-5 years to bring the reservoir into production; and that's for the easy stuff.

Yes these sources will become critically important in time, but I'd argue that these sources are nowhere close to producing at the levels necessary to meet growing demand and off-set losses from depleted fields.

And... none of these do us any good today. Have you ever attempted to fill you gas tank with "Reserves"? I suspect you won't get very far and will be waiting a long time for it.

[Shakespear]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

nowhere close to producing at the levels necessary to meet growing demand and off-set losses from depleted fields.

That is the "bingo" of the problem. They will not replace the lost production from the oil fields and that is why we see so much Military Activity in the world. Nothing else. It is not for the "love of Democracy" in my opinion.

[North4st]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Steve, can you buy marijuana legally? If yes, have a joint and look at some of the nice graph here

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil...-Twilight.html

I think I recall that Starving Steve (like myself) lives on Vancouver Island in British Columbia. So the green stuff pretty much grows wild out here and is otherwise freely available.

North4st

[doom&gloom]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Reserves aren't important, production flow rate and the ability of the production to meet America's daily consumption of ~20 million barrels of oil is what is important.

All the sources you mentioned above still have to explored, located, ROI/business case approved, drilling equipment identified and leased, drilling team assembled, 3-5 years for exploratory drilling to be completed, and another 3-5 years to bring the reservoir into production; and that's for the easy stuff.

Yes these sources will become critically important in time, but I'd argue that these sources are nowhere close to producing at the levels necessary to meet growing demand and off-set losses from depleted fields.

And... none of these do us any good today. Have you ever attempted to fill you gas tank with "Reserves"? I suspect you won't get very far and will be waiting a long time for it.

DING DING DING DING! We have a WINNER!

Beyond that, the NOC's have enough control now than any one of them holding back some (like the Saudi's of late) can drive up prices temporarily in no time.

[davidstvz]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Reserves aren't important, production flow rate and the ability of the production to meet America's daily consumption of ~20 million barrels of oil is what is important.

All the sources you mentioned above still have to explored, located, ROI/business case approved, drilling equipment identified and leased, drilling team assembled, 3-5 years for exploratory drilling to be completed, and another 3-5 years to bring the reservoir into production; and that's for the easy stuff.

Yes these sources will become critically important in time, but I'd argue that these sources are nowhere close to producing at the levels necessary to meet growing demand and off-set losses from depleted fields.

And... none of these do us any good today. Have you ever attempted to fill you gas tank with "Reserves"? I suspect you won't get very far and will be waiting a long time for it.

This. +1, etc. It's all about NET PRODUCTION RATES not reserves.

[charliebrown]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

OK, WTI is now107+, last year it took prices to sustain at over $100 for 3 months, and a peak of $113 before the economy started slowing down.
We now have two months over $100. Scarry thing too is that it is february, usually prices peak in late spring and summer here in the states.

How high can we go? No bombs being flying yet.

Wow straigt up. Now over 108, what is going on?

Funny how when big ben speaks gold goes up, when obama speaks oil goes up.

[charliebrown]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Just thinking some more, I would think that each time there is an oil spike, consumers would make some short and long term adjustments in aggregate.
In the short term they might drive less and fly less etc, but on each spike they will buy a more fuel efficient vehicle next time, or learn how to combine
trips etc. So this year's spike might either need a little higher peak or a little longer duration to have the same impact.

I see BHO is spewing his rethoric

MIAMI (AP) -- President Barack Obama on Thursday assailed Republicans for what he described as a flawed and dishonest strategy for reducing gas prices, predicting his rivals would offer nothing but more drilling and political promises of $2-a-gallon gas. Said the president: "The American people aren't stupid." "That's not a plan, especially since we're already drilling. That's a bumper sticker," Obama said in a stop at the University of Miami. "It's not a strategy to solve our energy challenge. That's a strategy to get politicians through an election. You know there are no quick fixes to this problem."

Yeah I know more drilling isnt' the whole answer but either is the volt. We have not had any strategic planning for energy around here and it's been 35 years.

[Mega]

Re: Brent over $120 ........... YYYEEESSS

Brent £124 today................What was the all time high in Brent?
Mike