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Greece crisis as a stall?

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  • Greece crisis as a stall?

    This strikes me as all too plausible... The greece crisis has been about getting Euro area ready for the default, not actually trying to solve anything... But then wt*dik:

    Firewalls In Place, Markets Ready: Greece Can Go To Heck

    Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said it out loud: "If the Greek people or the Greek political elite do not apply all of these conditions ... they exclude themselves from the Eurozone." All of these conditions. And there are a lot of them. Then he added the crucial words: "The impact on other countries now will be less important than a year ago."
    Playing for time had been the strategy all along. Governments established bailout funds. Markets, banks, and multinationals adjusted. The ECB figured out how to circumnavigate its treaty-based restrictions on monetizing sovereign debt of member states. And the national central banks that own the ECB, particularly the Bundesbank, got used to these circumnavigations. The fear of financial contagion has subsided. A kind of calm has set in. And politicians like Friedan see in this calm a sign that markets have accepted Greece’s exit from the Eurozone.
    Greece might want to decide that it would be better to exit the Eurozone, rather than actually implementing the budget cuts, Friedan said. Returning to the drachma and devaluing it might create a more competitive economy. "It might be something which would allow Greece to get a new start," he said.
    With all the pieces in place, it is now politically correct to admit that Greece is a hopeless case, that its political elite and institutions are such a mess that they simply don’t belong in the Eurozone. This too is part of the procedure of....

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  • #2
    Re: Greece crisis as a stall?

    I am living in Greece right now. Believe me, I have read just about everything on this topic. And you know what? It's confusing as hell. It's so hard to get a grip on this. There are so many moving parts, so many conflicting interests...

    EJ believes that the EU will slowly integrate/federalize over time and this crisis serves (intentionally/unintentionally?) this goal. He also seems to believe that Greece will likely stay in the Euro, but I don't think he's ruled out an exit or two either. I agree with this view. But living in Greece, it's hard not to get emotional about it.

    The economy here is in a free fall. You see it everywhere from closed shops, increased graffiti, crime, etc... But go out to a cafe or pub at night, or at a dinner party, and the crisis seems to disappear, unless of course it becomes the topic of conversation - which it always does for a while. I think the people here are resilient. The protests you see in Athens are both extreme, yet historically speaking, not unusual.

    I think the view that Greece has been "ringfenced" or "firewalled" is the German view. Yet I can't believe that they don't fear the political and economic repercussions of an exit. We're in uncharted territory. Could this be Lehman x 1000? Could this be a non event of public bickering that ultimately gets resolved?

    The EU has a lot of hurdles to go through to remain viable. Greece is but a symptom of what can go wrong with the federalization process, IMO. Yes, Greece has its problems, but those problems just made Greece's EU issues come to the fore before other nations' EU issues will. What I am saying is its not a one-off event. Others will follow without real federalization - central taxing authority, EU federal bonds, common defence, etc...

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    • #3
      Re: Greece crisis as a stall?

      As I've said before, the real issue is how to get Germany let the ECB print euros.

      France wants this, but has plenty of proxies (PIIGS) to serve in its place.

      Germany is willing to print this time but only if they get a future say such that the present situation doesn't occur again - but I guarantee France doesn't want this either.

      We still aren't at the trigger point, but in the meantime anti-German sentiment is starting to get hysterical:


      It is this type of reaction, vs. the willingness of France to submit to German integration, which will show us what the result will be.

      I do not believe we've seen the reality yet which way things will go: integration or Germany leaving/booted out of EU.

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