The Alternative Energy Matrix

[davidstvz]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

I don't trust the 500 million cost. If oil prices are rising and the dollar is falling which would be necessary to make it look like a safe enough bet, inflation will drive the price of building these things way up and that will warp the viability calculations. Who will finance these plants? (EDIT) Oh government? But conservatives hate big government projects and liberals hate dirty fossil fuels. If we can do it, it sounds like we can do ok with Mexican and Canadian imports. It sounds like U.S. energy independence. Maybe not growth, but at least independence. For a while. I'll believe it happens when I see it though!

[c1ue]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

I don't trust the 500 million cost.

If anything, the actual cost would fall if deployed in large numbers. CTL is not a new technology; the Germans were doing it in WW II.

If oil prices are rising and the dollar is falling which would be necessary to make it look like a safe enough bet, inflation will drive the price of building these things way up and that will warp the viability calculations.

Frankly this argument applies to any and every investment imaginable. Why then is this a negative just for CTL plants?

Who will finance these plants? (EDIT) Oh government? But conservatives hate big government projects and liberals hate dirty fossil fuels.

The issue is the stability of prices, not just the absolute level. Let's not forget oil prices average $53 in 2009 - all of 2 years ago.

If we can do it, it sounds like we can do ok with Mexican and Canadian imports. It sounds like U.S. energy independence. Maybe not growth, but at least independence. For a while. I'll believe it happens when I see it though!

I guess it all depends on what you mean by independence. Even disregarding looming questions about Mexico's production, the reality is that Canada and Mexico are both still foreign countries, and the price of oil they sell to the US is still going to be a function of the international market price.

Relying on just domestic, Canadian, and Mexican oil, and even throwing in Venezuela's oil, the result would be a reduction in oil usage of some 30+%.

The ensuring recession would make the present one look like a mere blip.

[davidstvz]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

Frankly this argument applies to any and every investment imaginable. Why then is this a negative just for CTL plants?

You're right of course. It's the energy gap trap that was also written about on Do The Math. We're not going to be sufficiently motivated to solve energy problems until energy availability is decreasing (and price is going up) which is exactly the worst time to have to do it.

The issue is the stability of prices, not just the absolute level. Let's not forget oil prices average $53 in 2009 - all of 2 years ago.

Yes, that will help to ensure that the solution is put off further and further making the problem harder to solve.

I guess it all depends on what you mean by independence. Even disregarding looming questions about Mexico's production, the reality is that Canada and Mexico are both still foreign countries, and the price of oil they sell to the US is still going to be a function of the international market price.

Relying on just domestic, Canadian, and Mexican oil, and even throwing in Venezuela's oil, the result would be a reduction in oil usage of some 30+%.

The ensuring recession would make the present one look like a mere blip.

Exactly. If the dollar crashes and we can't import significant amount of oil (I won't count canada and mexico), then ouila! We are independent... energy poor, but independent. From there we can build our own infrastructure and that is the position I expect us to be in when we start making honest headway on that problem.

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

What good is wind if it only blows part of the time? The windmills are an unsightly joke because back-up power from coal, uranium, natural-gas, or hydro-electric is required. Since the traditional power plants are required, what contribution do windmills, solar panels, and tidal generation make when they can not be depended upon for power at all times, on-demand?

I think the Duke of Edinburough asked this question in public the other day.

[davidstvz]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

That's like asking: Why get a job or invest wisely if I have 300 grand in my checking account? Renewables help us stretch finite resources and buy us more time (which we will hopefully spend bringing renewable output up and solving the intermittency issue with improved batteries and other technology).

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

That's like asking: Why get a job or invest wisely if I have 300 grand in my checking account? Renewables help us stretch finite resources and buy us more time (which we will hopefully spend bringing renewable output up and solving the intermittency issue with improved batteries and other technology).

OK, fair comment: renewables do add electricity to the electric grid, whether used or not. Since sometimes there is a use for the electricity, the need for power generation from current plants is sometimes--- only sometimes--- reduced. That would mean that sometimes coal, uranium, water in dams, or natural-gas could be conserved.

But is this worth the capital cost of constructing windmill farms, tidal energy turbines and solar power panels? Even if un-needed surplus electricity could be stored by pumping water up into elevated reservoirs, or maybe if the surplus electric power could be stored in batteries, the question remains: Would it be worth doing? How much nat-gas, uranium, or coal would this save? And would it be worth saving every last bit of uranium, every last bit of fossil fuel, and every last bit of water in a hydro-electric dam reservoir? This last question of would it be worth it; i.e, are alternative energy projects and capital costs worth it? And are they worth it now that we have discovered that cheap, or moderately priced, fossil fuels are everywhere on this planet and will last for centuries to come?

Back to the relavency of the Duke of Edinborough's remarks a few days ago: Would destroying your landscape with windmills ( and with solar panels ) be worth doing? Would destroying your nation's tourist industry for a few megawatts of extra electric power generation be worth doing? .... And how many micro-grammes of uranium would that save each day? How many rail-cars of coal would that save each day? How many cubic feet of nat-gas would that save each day, etc?

Here in California, people are destroying the visual appeal of their homes by covering-up the beautiful clay tiles on their home's roof with ugly and stark solar panels. And above, you can see how ugly homes become with solar panels and windmills both on their home's roof.... The photo of the subdivision is incredible! --- and for what, for a few pennies of savings on their utility bills?.... And this doesn't even take into account the expense to the taxpayer from government subsidies for alternative energy investments, such as these.

Anyway, this is the debate..... Do see Don's post above of that alternative energy neighbourhood, posted 02-09-12, at 12:57 PM.

[c1ue]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

Renewables help us stretch finite resources and buy us more time (which we will hopefully spend bringing renewable output up and solving the intermittency issue with improved batteries and other technology).

I'd say that renewables can help us stretch finite resources.

However, ill conceived renewable energy spending actually accelerates the decline. Money is, after all, crystallized work.

The massive amounts of money and energy used to subsidize first generation solar PV, grid baseline wind electricity, corn ethanol, and so on and so forth can in no way be said to help stretch anything.

[davidstvz]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

I'd say that renewables can help us stretch finite resources.

However, ill conceived renewable energy spending actually accelerates the decline. Money is, after all, crystallized work.

The massive amounts of money and energy used to subsidize first generation solar PV, grid baseline wind electricity, corn ethanol, and so on and so forth can in no way be said to help stretch anything.

Large scale build-outs of net losers are clearly a bad idea, but the R&D needs to come from somewhere. When it comes to build outs, it's a difficult question of going with the current technology or waiting for something better I guess. I don't have the detailed knowledge about the technology to say anything about this though.


EDIT:

Steve, you've got to also consider future energy availability. Didn't california have a problem with rolling brownouts a little while back? Sounds like solar panels are a good investment to me!

[photon555]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

The massive amounts of money and energy used to subsidize first generation solar PV, grid baseline wind electricity, corn ethanol, and so on and so forth can in no way be said to help stretch anything.

But they do pay back big campaign contributors, eh! You don't need a crystal ball to see that the alt energy movement has been by captured by crony capitalism and corrupt pols.

[photon555]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

I don't believe subsidies are economically efficient, but there is one subsidy that would actually reduce energy usage and also improve people's lives. That would be even a small subsidy for corps and businesses to encourage telecommuting. But because it makes sense and can't easily be corrupted we won't see it.

[davidstvz]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

photon: I'd say that in a properly functioning government, the point of subsidy isn't to be efficient in the short term, but in the long term (something the market is mostly incapable of doing). And as you point out, in a corrupt government, it's about special interests looting the treasury. In a partially corrupt government, we can hope that it's at least a little of both.

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

The way I look at the rolling brown-outs is that not enough nuclear was built in California. Not only nuclear, not enough nat-gas power plants and not enough hydo-electric dams were built.........I keep looking at the Eel River in North-west California: Why is that gigantic river going to waste? Why aren't hydro-electric dams being constructed there? The electric power from the Eel River could be transmitted to the San Francisco Bay Area, albeit with a large loss in transmission due to the distance.

Speaking of rivers not being dammed for hydro-electric power, the Fraser River in British Columbia is going to waste. And why is the Fraser River undammed; might it be to preserve habitat for some stupid snail or some stupid worm? Or might it be to preserve water rapids and views of the Fraser River Canyon?........Now that people can not afford to pay their utility bills, why aren't people in British Columbia finally speaking-out against what the environmentalists ( the eco-frauds ) have done to the province of B.C?

Back to discussing the arrogance of the environmental lobby ( the eco-frauds in the Sierra Club and in Greenpeace ) in California: Why hasn't the Carmel River been dammed? Why let the precious water in the tiny Carmel River go to waste? Why have the residents in the Carmel Valley been opposed in public hearings about building a small dam on the Carmel River?

And might I name some more rivers which are crying-out for hydro-electric (and water conservation) dams? Might I name the Truckee River? Might I name the Feather River? Might I name the Sacramento River and the San Joaquin River? How about the Salinas River, the Merced River, the Carson River and the Napa River, the Los Angeles River, the Stanislaus River, the lower Colorado River and the Kern River?

Two more important and large rivers that are begging to be dammed for power and diverted for fresh-water are the Klamath River and the Trinity River. Not as large as the Eel River, but still quite large by California standards, these rivers flow through northern California and dump into the Pacific Ocean. What a waste of precious water and power, and for what? ---To preserve bird habitat?

How about discussing the Pitt River: The environmentalists (the Sierra Club, among others) have blocked proposals to build a dam along the Pitt River before the river enters the east-side Shasta Reservoir. This fight between the eco-frauds and those who want a dam along the Pitt River has been going-on for decades.

Shall I go into the fights that the "Keep Lake Tahoe Blue" bunch have waged not only against hydro-electric dams, but against paved roads, against sidewalks, against paved driveways, against parking-lots, and against new homes in the Tahoe Valley? The "Keep Lake Tahoe Blue" frauds control the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (the T.R.P.A.). They have made living in the Tahoe Valley outrageously expensive and impossible for human-beings.

And to think that these eco-frauds in the environmental movement have the nerve to blame rolling brown-outs on those who want development and progress in California! Not only this, when you speak with environmentalists, they reply to you: "We don't have enough sites for hydro-electric dams, do we?" Another one of their answers: "We are short of fresh-water in California," the latter reply somewhat true but needlessly so.

* For the benefit of readers unfamiliar with California's hot summer and early fall, the power demand for air-conditioning during California's heat-waves surges, so there have been electric brown-outs rolling throughout the state. There has been not enough electric power to meet demand. Solar panels and windmills were a failure; they didn't even come close to generating enough electricity to meet power demand during hot spells.

[Bundi]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

if they werent exporting so much of it, (liquids) it might be a heluva lot cheaper - and might not get too much higher??

ch smith notes that retail deliveries have 'tanked':

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb12/...king02-12.html

I don't understand the structural realities of the refiner to end user gasoline chain. I would suggest it may be more complex than the "retail" chart shown on zerohedge. Given the number of cars in the US (>200mn, I've read anyway), I think the below chart is possibly worth considering. Perhaps the "retail" is a sub set of the refiner to end user supply chain, one not including "Rack" sales. I would be more inclined to believe a 5% to 10% decline in gas volume, in total over the last 3 to 5 years.

[c1ue]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

Large scale build-outs of net losers are clearly a bad idea, but the R&D needs to come from somewhere. When it comes to build outs, it's a difficult question of going with the current technology or waiting for something better I guess. I don't have the detailed knowledge about the technology to say anything about this though.

You are conflating technology roll-out with R & D.

The two are not directly related.

As I noted in this post: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...es-in-contrast

there are ways to motivate the R & D side without simultaneously blowing billions on crap technology. You'll note also that in the above article, I explicitly ask the question of just how economically beneficial it is for anyone to be the first mover in crap technology.

Riddle me this: why spend billions at both the state and federal level to roll out unquestionably 1st generation solar PV technology? How much public benefit have these billions actually net?

Much more likely what is happening is because the forces of corporatism are at work, as photon555 notes.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The Alternative Energy Matrix

I don't understand the structural realities of the refiner to end user gasoline chain. I would suggest it may be more complex than the "retail" chart shown on zerohedge. Given the number of cars in the US (>200mn, I've read anyway), I think the below chart is possibly worth considering. Perhaps the "retail" is a sub set of the refiner to end user supply chain, one not including "Rack" sales. I would be more inclined to believe a 5% to 10% decline in gas volume, in total over the last 3 to 5 years.

When you look at Vehicle Distance Traveled, there has been a longer-term drop-off, though. It's somewhat consistent with recessions over time too: