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  • Controversy over natural gas exports from US

    Calling Hawaii power and electric?

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...BUAL1MQ3TD.DTL

    Debate is brewing over whether to keep the nation's glut of natural gas at home for cheap energy or export it at five times the price, possibly creating jobs and boosting the domestic economy.

    Businesses that purchase natural gas for industrial and residential use have rallied against proposals to liquefy and export the fossil fuel to Asian and European nations willing to pay much higher prices.

    Nine companies have sought federal approval to export about 10 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas per day, which would boost prices for U.S. customers.

    Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass LNG plant in Louisiana already has won approval to ship out more than 2 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas a day.


    In total, the proposed export volume equals about 14 percent of the natural gas produced in the United States - 26.8 trillion cubic feet in 2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The United States consumed about 23.8 trillion cubic feet.

    There's little doubt that exports will cause the price of natural gas to rise. The debate is whether the rise in gross domestic product and gas field employment might offset the negative effects of higher domestic energy prices.

    "I don't think anybody knows the answer to that question, which we think argues for slowing down these (export) facilities," said Dave Schryver, executive vice president of the American Public Gas Association, a trade group for municipal gas utilities.

    "Until you have a strong, accurate view of what the impact is going to have on consumers, it's premature."

    The price of natural gas in the United States has plummeted as technology has made it economical to extract natural gas from dense shale rock.

    Natural gas futures closed at $2.67 per million British thermal units in trading Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price was more than $15 in 2005.


    "We have so much natural gas coming up that we don't know what to do with it," said Andrew Ware, spokesman for Cheniere Energy, based in Houston.

    Except, maybe, ship it overseas.

    Natural gas is selling for as much as $12 per million Btu in Europe and as high as $18 in some Asian markets, said Ira Joseph, executive director for international gas at consulting firm PIRA Energy Group.

    Cheniere and other LNG companies have said that allowing natural gas exports from the Gulf Coast would create jobs by encouraging more drilling.

    The Energy Information Administration is expected to issue a report this week examining the price effects of exports.

    A second report in March will examine how the proposed exports would affect the broader U.S. economy on job creation and gross domestic product, said Bob Corbin, director of the office reviewing the applications.

    It's not clear when the Energy Department will decide on the pending export permits, because the nation previously hasn't had to contemplate exporting natural gas on this scale, Corbin said.

    The country has exported some gas since the 1960s, when Conoco's Alaska LNG plant began shipments to Japan.

    But the Sabine Pass terminal, along with other LNG facilities seeking federal approval, represents the first effort to export it from the Lower 48 states.


    That worries companies that buy natural gas for home heating and factories.
    "If you create this highway that makes it easy for natural gas to flow to where the price is highest, that would make natural gas prices higher here," said Schryver, of the Public Gas Association.

    Price is one factor in considering export permits, Corbin acknowledged, but the chief concern is supply.

    "If there wasn't enough gas to support both domestic demand and exports, that would be enough to disqualify the application," Corbin said.

  • #2
    Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

    We already have financial Dutch disease. This would complete our 3rd world backwater status. The national resources should be used to feed our own industry. Exporting the national resources has helped very few countries.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

      Natural gas which is produced but not exported will, in all likelihood, be flared-off. At least, that's what has happened in the past, for decades.

      Everyone benefits by free-trade. Surpluses get distributed, and shortages get filled.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

        If what Art Berman asserts is true, than this makes sense for the industry. Without higher prices, much drilling stops, and then you have higher prices anyway. If we want to keep the gas for ourselves at cheap prices, then gov't subsidies are in order, or the consumer pays the eventual, REAL cost of fracking. Either way the consumer/taxpayer will pay. The question is, do we want that gas to only be consumed in the US? If so, then get ready for higher prices.

        http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000030146

        By the way, that interview is a perfect example of what is wrong with the media today. Instead of focusing on facts and nuances, the interviewer wants a sensational, only two sides of the story narrative - which is easily digested by the masses.

        The natty gas industry may be facing a crisis if gas wells deplete as fast as Berman says. The jury is still out on fracking. From what I have read, we will be facing higher gas prices whether we export or not.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

          Originally posted by gnk View Post
          If what Art Berman asserts is true, than this makes sense for the industry. Without higher prices, much drilling stops, and then you have higher prices anyway. If we want to keep the gas for ourselves at cheap prices, then gov't subsidies are in order, or the consumer pays the eventual, REAL cost of fracking. Either way the consumer/taxpayer will pay. The question is, do we want that gas to only be consumed in the US? If so, then get ready for higher prices.

          http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000030146

          By the way, that interview is a perfect example of what is wrong with the media today. Instead of focusing on facts and nuances, the interviewer wants a sensational, only two sides of the story narrative - which is easily digested by the masses.

          The natty gas industry may be facing a crisis if gas wells deplete as fast as Berman says. The jury is still out on fracking. From what I have read, we will be facing higher gas prices whether we export or not.
          lamestream media propaganda aside - which i most assuredly agree with you on...

          isnt the primary problem with natgas prices due to simply a lack of demand? brought about by lack of a coherent energy source/supply strategy ? (sides the 'tilting at windmills' that we see squirting out of washington)
          when even people like t boone pickens makes the case for using LNG for truck fuel and its all but ignored?

          but far as higher prices in the future - isnt this merely a function of A: the dilution of the dollar (to bailout the banksters and buy the votes of the gov-dependant) and B: the lack of any REAL plan to fully develop a REAL alternative energy source (hint: rhymes with geranium) that is staring us right in the face, but because of political correctness, we wont even talk about it? meanwhile the rest of the world is racing ahead of us in this dept while we blow hundreds of billions on 'solutions' that might - someday - cover 2or3% of our energy requirements?

          just sayin, or askin, actually...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

            Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
            Natural gas which is produced but not exported will, in all likelihood, be flared-off. At least, that's what has happened in the past, for decades.

            Everyone benefits by free-trade. Surpluses get distributed, and shortages get filled.
            the only reason it ever got flared off is because nobody (the oil co's in particular) had any use for it.

            and i for one am ABSOLUTELY AGAINST the US exporting _any_ of our hydrocarbon resources, as it merely serves to drive up the prices/profit margins of the producers, while we get stuck fighting over (and paying thru the nose for) who gets how much $ub$idy to play with windmills and solar panels (and hey! i am most certainly a proponent of solar, but lets get real, its never going to cover more than a few % of total US energy demand - that said, it does make sense for individual homeowners to have some on their roofs)

            the very idea that The US is exporting gasoline is frankly INFURIATING to those of us paying 425/gal and more, let me tell ya.

            and it also would appear that prices bottomed for the year about 2 weeks ago and are moving UP, already?
            either we have another gasoline-price-induced 'recession' on the way, or its gonna be a looooong hot summer...
            and its only january?? and so far, a warm winter to boot?? - so why are petrol-based fuels already launching????

            export natgas?
            BS - we need to find a way to use it here, NOW!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

              Originally posted by c1ue View Post
              Calling Hawaii power and electric?
              uh huh.... sure.... as ole glen campbell used to say:

              http://youtu.be/mUg5p3BncuQ?t=1m11s

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

                From what I have read elsewhere, and from the interview I posted, I'll summarize it as follows:

                There's a whole lotta frackin' going on that is just not economically viable long term, at current prices. But Wall Street loves a cinderella story, and you gotta keep dancing while the music is still playing.

                Now that the natural gas companies want to sell abroad to push up the price and make some money from all that fracking - or at least break even, I think the music is about to stop.

                What you mention - supply demand/dollar devaluation, etc... also play a role - but these things affect all energy sources. Natural gas is going through its own thing with the increased use of fracking - which is all the hype right now. I think EJ will be writing up on this soon. Natural Gas is looking pretty darn cheap right now - too cheap.

                You know what happens when everyone moves to one side of the boat? The boat starts dangerously tilting. That's when everyone starts heading to the other side of the boat in a mad rush. I think that dynamic is at play here in the natural gas investment arena.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

                  Effect of Increased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Markets as requested by the Office of Fossil Energy

                  Release date: January 19, 2012


                  http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/


                  Summary of Results

                  Increased natural gas exports lead to higher domestic natural gas prices, increased domestic natural gas production, reduced domestic natural gas consumption, and increased natural gas imports from Canada via pipeline.
                  Impacts overview
                  • Increased natural gas exports lead to increased natural gas prices. Larger export levels lead to larger domestic price increases, while rapid increases in export levels lead to large initial price increases that moderate somewhat in a few years. Slower increases in export levels lead to more gradual price increases but eventually produce higher average prices during the decade between 2025 and 2035.
                  • Natural gas markets in the United States balance in response to increased natural gas exports largely through increased natural gas production. Increased natural gas production satisfies about 60 to 70 percent of the increase in natural gas exports, with a minor additional contribution from increased imports from Canada. Across most cases, about three-quarters of this increased production is from shale sources.
                  • The remaining portion is supplied by natural gas that would have been consumed domestically if not for the higher prices. The electric power sector accounts for the majority of the decrease in delivered natural gas. Due to higher prices, the electric power sector primarily shifts to coal-fired generation, and secondarily to renewable sources, though there is some decrease in total generation due to the higher price of natural gas. There is also a small reduction in natural gas use in all sectors from efficiency improvements and conservation.
                  • Even while consuming less, on average, consumers will see an increase in their natural gas and electricity expenditures. On average, from 2015 to 2035, natural gas bills paid by end-use consumers in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors combined increase 3 to 9 percent over a comparable baseline case with no exports, depending on the export scenario and case, while increases in electricity bills paid by end-use customers range from 1 to 3 percent. In the rapid growth cases, the increase is notably greater in the early years relative to the later years. The slower export growth cases tend to show natural gas bills increasing more towards the end of the projection period.
                  full report

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

                    Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                    Natural gas which is produced but not exported will, in all likelihood, be flared-off. At least, that's what has happened in the past, for decades.

                    Everyone benefits by free-trade. Surpluses get distributed, and shortages get filled.
                    Proof Sir James Goldsmith was correct!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Controversy over natural gas exports from US

                      We have thus far prevented pipe lines going out west from the Great Lake regions just because its there and people are thirsty out West. Natural gas is not capital. Its national resource subject to more over sight than to allow them to pour out the milk so to speak.

                      Comment

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