Afghan Green Shoots

[don]

Earnings from opium production in Afghanistan soared by 133 per cent last year to about $1.4 billion, or about one-tenth of the country's GDP, according to a United Nations report received Friday.

The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime said the price rise was due to a plant disease that wiped out much of the opium crop in 2010. Although yields returned to pre-blight levels in 2011, the prices have remained high, the survey said.

Definitive statistics are hard to obtain in Afghanistan, but the survey said the value of the crop may now be the equivalent of nine percent of the country's GDP.

Afghanistan provides about 90 percent of the world's opium, the raw ingredient for heroin.

Under the Taliban, opium growing was reduced by 95%. Since the invasion, opium cultivation has surpassed all previous records.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Afghan Green Shoots

My understanding of ISAF efforts in the counterdrug mission is to try and hit the MIDDLE of the chain.

I don't know if that WAS, IS, or WILL BE the strategy...but I'm pretty sure they'd prefer to avoid burning down small growers crops and turning them into insurgents.

After all, if employment opportunities suck...and there's no social services....and growing poppies provides a better chance of preventing my kids from starvation/death than growing mellons.....then I would be rather cross with anyone that interfered with my ability to provide basic life sustainment for my family.

I've got some photos of friends over there taken within the last week or so standing in poppy fields.

So I THINK efforts are largely(but not entirely) directed at the middle layers of the narcotics distribution chain.

And the Taliban and Haqqani network are significant players in narcotics distribution to fund their operations....while I think it makes clinical sense to work with the Taliban in the future direction of Afghanistan...the meme that they were opposed to drugs(at least non-Afghani) is false.

And it's not just the Taliban and Haqqani Network making money.....but "Kabul Mayor" Karzai's brother is reportedly one of the biggest narcotics kingpins in the region.

Maybe lessons learned from Columbia's counterdrug efforts could be adopted/implemented.

It's my understanding that a fair number of Columbians have been operating in Afghanistan for the last few years for the counterdrug mission.

No easy answers or solutions I reckon....

Columbia has improved....maybe Afghanistan can someday.

But even when the Afghanistan mission ends....I don't see the battle against narcoterrorism ending anytime soon unless possibly radical demand focused efforts are implemented to match the aggressive kinetic supply focused efforts.

The Narco Civil War in Mexico doesn't seem to be heading in the right direction either....the last positive spin I've heard about Mexico was that the murder rate has "only" increased a mere 11% in 2011 over 2010....murder growth rate slowing a bit...not exactly something to be proud of.

[c1ue]

Re: Afghan Green Shoots

My understanding of ISAF efforts in the counterdrug mission is to try and hit the MIDDLE of the chain.

I don't know if that WAS, IS, or WILL BE the strategy...but I'm pretty sure they'd prefer to avoid burning down small growers crops and turning them into insurgents.

Is the theory that destroying the middle of the of heroin supply chain, thus disrupting the economic life cycle, will somehow deflect the blame away?

I mean, sure it is easier to assign blame when an ISAF plane napalms your field, but what is the actual long term difference if the opium farmer can't make a living doing what he was doing?

The 'middle man' strategy certainly doesn't seem to work for cocaine and marijuana interdiction either.

[flintlock]

Re: Afghan Green Shoots

My understanding of ISAF efforts in the counterdrug mission is to try and hit the MIDDLE of the chain.

I don't know if that WAS, IS, or WILL BE the strategy...but I'm pretty sure they'd prefer to avoid burning down small growers crops and turning them into insurgents.

After all, if employment opportunities suck...and there's no social services....and growing poppies provides a better chance of preventing my kids from starvation/death than growing mellons.....then I would be rather cross with anyone that interfered with my ability to provide basic life sustainment for my family.

I've got some photos of friends over there taken within the last week or so standing in poppy fields.

So I THINK efforts are largely(but not entirely) directed at the middle layers of the narcotics distribution chain.

And the Taliban and Haqqani network are significant players in narcotics distribution to fund their operations....while I think it makes clinical sense to work with the Taliban in the future direction of Afghanistan...the meme that they were opposed to drugs(at least non-Afghani) is false.

And it's not just the Taliban and Haqqani Network making money.....but "Kabul Mayor" Karzai's brother is reportedly one of the biggest narcotics kingpins in the region.

Maybe lessons learned from Columbia's counterdrug efforts could be adopted/implemented.

It's my understanding that a fair number of Columbians have been operating in Afghanistan for the last few years for the counterdrug mission.

No easy answers or solutions I reckon....

Columbia has improved....maybe Afghanistan can someday.

But even when the Afghanistan mission ends....I don't see the battle against narcoterrorism ending anytime soon unless possibly radical demand focused efforts are implemented to match the aggressive kinetic supply focused efforts.

The Narco Civil War in Mexico doesn't seem to be heading in the right direction either....the last positive spin I've heard about Mexico was that the murder rate has "only" increased a mere 11% in 2011 over 2010....murder growth rate slowing a bit...not exactly something to be proud of.

As usual, nice to hear an informed comment on Itulip . Going after the source ( poppy fields) at the same time you are trying to fight an insurgency is a sure way to lose "hearts and minds". No easy solution for sure. The US can't win the drug war on its own borders, much less on the other side of the Earth.

Just my opinion, but when you have to resort to making Allies with Drug kingpins like the "Kabul Mayor" to fight a war, you've already lost.

The wife and I watched a show the other night on Mexican Cartel violence. Over 50,000 dead in the last four years!? Insane.

The 'middle man' strategy certainly doesn't seem to work for cocaine and marijuana interdiction either.

Has a war on drugs ever been won by the West? Obviously if the middleman strategy was working they'd shut down the trafficking and they're would be no one left to purchase the farmers crops. I guess we'll know this has happened when the poppys are rotting in the fields.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Afghan Green Shoots

Is the theory that destroying the middle of the of heroin supply chain, thus disrupting the economic life cycle, will somehow deflect the blame away?

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee today, but this part has me scratching my head......it is my opinion/understanding of what's happened and/or happening is that attacking the middle results in the farmer getting paid for his crop(or is owed by the middleman not ISAF)...but the crop is targeted for destruction before and after processing/refinement. As far as "deflecting blame" I have no idea what you're talking about...nor do I wish to engage in debate beyond just my 2nd hand understanding of what's happening on the ground in that theatre.

I mean, sure it is easier to assign blame when an ISAF plane napalms your field, but what is the actual long term difference if the opium farmer can't make a living doing what he was doing?

I'm not aware of ISAF napalming fields...however I can offer a huge number of anecdotal examples of ISAF personnel taking photos of themselves standing in big fields of weed/poppies..it seems to be one of the "things to do"...and NOT destroying them.

As stated the effort seems focused farther down the chain.....obviously IF successful...the naughty folks who use narco trafficking to fund operations against ISAF will have less money to pay farmers......and ISAF Civil Affairs and Reconstruction programs exist to try to transition farmers into other crops while concurrently trying to prevent the raw crop from being successfully converted into finished product providing cash to fund ops against ISAF...at least that's my basic understanding of the theory.

The 'middle man' strategy certainly doesn't seem to work for cocaine and marijuana interdiction either.

Columbia is far from perfect....FAR from perfect.....but wouldn't they be better off today than say the period leading up to the mid 90's?

As best I can tell....while still a major hub of drug production and trafficking.....Columbia's drug production and drug violence has cut in half the last 10 years or so......a far cry from 25 years ago when Columbia's Supreme Court was slaughtered.

Lots of money spent...LOTS.....heaps of lives lost...HEAPS.....but iColumbia would be defined by most as better now wouldn't it?

I have my own personal feelings about drug policy...and I think demand side should be addressed with a similar or greater level of effort than the kinetic eradication of supply.....and I'd rather this doesn't devolve into a win/lose debate...your posts imply I'm on the opposite side of the table and of the debate than you.....I'm not on a "side"...I'm just an interested tourist like the rest of us here.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Afghan Green Shoots

As usual, nice to hear an informed comment on Itulip . Going after the source ( poppy fields) at the same time you are trying to fight an insurgency is a sure way to lose "hearts and minds". No easy solution for sure. The US can't win the drug war on its own borders, much less on the other side of the Earth.

Just my opinion, but when you have to resort to making Allies with Drug kingpins like the "Kabul Mayor" to fight a war, you've already lost.

The wife and I watched a show the other night on Mexican Cartel violence. Over 50,000 dead in the last four years!? Insane.



Has a war on drugs ever been won by the West? Obviously if the middleman strategy was working they'd shut down the trafficking and they're would be no one left to purchase the farmers crops. I guess we'll know this has happened when the poppys are rotting in the fields.

Just to clarify.....the "Mayor of Kabul" President Karzai is NOT the drug kingpin...that would be his brother....the "alleged" drug kingpin

Mexico is an interesting one....yup 50,000 dead in the last couple of years.....with the most positive PR spin being "the murder rate increased by ONLY 11% in the past year".

A narco civil war on the US border.

Their not police "shootouts", they're proper military "firefights" and "contacts"......with DOZENS of bad guys...that's platoon sized bad guys and company sized good guys(if the good guys can choose the time/place)....scary stuff.

I hope Mexico can come out of it...I worry about their declining PEMEX production and wonder about the government's ability to shift from relying on PEMEX income to being able to increase tax revenue.

[c1ue]

Re: Afghan Green Shoots

Columbia is far from perfect....FAR from perfect.....but wouldn't they be better off today than say the period leading up to the mid 90's?

The problem with equating one with the other, is that the two periods are not in isolation.

As best I can tell....while still a major hub of drug production and trafficking.....Columbia's drug production and drug violence has cut in half the last 10 years or so......a far cry from 25 years ago when Columbia's Supreme Court was slaughtered.

Lots of money spent...LOTS.....heaps of lives lost...HEAPS.....but iColumbia would be defined by most as better now wouldn't it?

I have my own personal feelings about drug policy...and I think demand side should be addressed with a similar or greater level of effort than the kinetic eradication of supply.....and I'd rather this doesn't devolve into a win/lose debate...your posts imply I'm on the opposite side of the table and of the debate than you.....I'm not on a "side"...I'm just an interested tourist like the rest of us here.

My point wasn't that you were a supporter of the Afghan policy, but rather than the Afghan policy has not worked anywhere else.

Furthermore the situation in Colombia now vs. the 1990's - it seems the only difference is an open conflict between the drug lords and the Colombian government. Informers still get shot, police are still intimidated, there are still large areas where the hand of the Colombian government sits very lightly if at all.

It is just as plausible to say that the support of the US succeeded only in convincing the surviving drug lords to not try and take over Colombia as a nation, to instead focus on their own business - which seems to be doing just fine.

I do agree that the demand side is the issue, and a major problem is that no one really cares enough to make cocaine abuse a serious crime. Maybe that is because powder cocaine is the realm of judges and banksters?