Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

[don]

I want to throw this out to my fellow 'Tulipers for their take on the 'withdrawal' from the Iraqi venture.

Saddam's threat to forgo the dollar as the reserve currency was to a number of people paramount in the decision for a full scale invasion.

Elimination of Iraq as a strong national entity was another.

Were both of these goals realized by the invasion and its apparent aftermath?

(I'm not ignoring that things may have been more difficult than imagined in the initial planning)

Whaddaya think?

[aaron]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

I think if those were the 2 goals, they were attained when Bush said "mission accomplished". The real goal was for them to be a shining example of freedom and democracy for the rest of the middle east.

[c1ue]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

I'd say geopolitically, if the goal was to stabilize the Middle East, it was a huge and utter failure.

Instead of Saddam and the ayatollahs staring each other down over the Straits of Hormuz, we now have the ayatollahs dangling car bombs in Baghdad like yo yos whenever a US distraction is needed.

Equally so how does a Shia Iraq help Shiite Saudi Arabia?

Lastly how exactly did Iraq build US credibility in the ME? The lesson learned seems to be: don't fight US tanks and planes, plant lots of IEDs.

As for the economic aspects - Counterpunch was noting that Turkish, Chinese, and other interests have far more economic presence in Iraq than US companies.

[don]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

Did the dollar buy time as Iraq's reserve currency for oil? Iraq is certainly fragmented, which appears to be the weapon of choice - from the color revolutions to the Libyan "rebels" - destabilization. If this was the case, it certainly didn't go off without a hitch, in both Iraq and the ME. If anything, things are more complicated.

[*T*]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

Taking a leaf from the British book, I think the idea was to fragment and destabilise Iraq and leave a permanant military presence. Half achieved.

[don]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

Taking a leaf from the British book, I think the idea was to fragment and destabilise Iraq and leave a permanant military presence. Half achieved.

Stability is in the mind of the beholder. The alternative to a weak national government is permanent occupation and administration, an expensive proposition that runs counter to US foreign policy for about a century. Not taking this effective, proven policy into consideration when discussing the 'demise' of the dollar is foolish. The currency wars will not be decided solely by the accountants.

[Dave Stratman]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

Don--

I'd add a couple goals to those that you mention.

--The war destroyed Iraq as a secular state. A key strategy of the U.S. in the Middle east and Central Asia has for decades been to promote political Islam as a means of social control. Political Islam sounds militant and anti-Western, but it is profoundly authoritarian and conservative--exactly the sort of movement that the U.S. and the U.K. actively promote, sometimes openly, as in Afghanistan in the 1980s and '90s, sometimes covertly, as in Egypt and Iran.

--The Iraq war was used to control Americans and persuade them to accept a decade of worsening conditions and growing police-state control. One columnist (Steve Lopez) wrote in the Los Angeles Times, "There's a dirty secret [behind this war] no one has told you, and here it is: This war is not about changing Iraq, it's about changing America....The whole idea is to train you to expect less and to feel patriotic about it."

One could of course add many more--the further militarization of American society, the further enrichment of the arms military/industrial complex. But these will do.

Did the U.S. ruling elites accomplish their goals in Iraq? I would say they did, to a substantial degree, but at considerable political cost. They succeeded in projecting military power to new lands and Islamicising Iraq. They succeeded with their "weapon of mass distraction" in getting people to accept (more or less) the downgrading of their lives. But they exposed themselves more thoroughly to the world and to Americans as mere brigands. They also revealed some of their vulnerabilities (to I.E.D.s, guerrilla war, etc.). Perhaps it's too soon to measure their success or failure. (When Chou En Lai was asked in the 1970s whether the French Revolution was a success, he replied, "It's too early to tell.")

The real questions, I suppose, are what are the real lessons of this war and have we learned them?

[don]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

Don--

I'd add a couple goals to those that you mention.

--The war destroyed Iraq as a secular state. A key strategy of the U.S. in the Middle east and Central Asia has for decades been to promote political Islam as a means of social control. Political Islam sounds militant and anti-Western, but it is profoundly authoritarian and conservative--exactly the sort of movement that the U.S. and the U.K. actively promote, sometimes openly, as in Afghanistan in the 1980s and '90s, sometimes covertly, as in Egypt and Iran.

--The Iraq war was used to control Americans and persuade them to accept a decade of worsening conditions and growing police-state control. One columnist (Steve Lopez) wrote in the Los Angeles Times, "There's a dirty secret [behind this war] no one has told you, and here it is: This war is not about changing Iraq, it's about changing America....The whole idea is to train you to expect less and to feel patriotic about it."

One could of course add many more--the further militarization of American society, the further enrichment of the arms military/industrial complex. But these will do.

Did the U.S. ruling elites accomplish their goals in Iraq? I would say they did, to a substantial degree, but at considerable political cost. They succeeded in projecting military power to new lands and Islamicising Iraq. They succeeded with their "weapon of mass distraction" in getting people to accept (more or less) the downgrading of their lives. But they exposed themselves more thoroughly to the world and to Americans as mere brigands. They also revealed some of their vulnerabilities (to I.E.D.s, guerrilla war, etc.). Perhaps it's too soon to measure their success or failure. (When Chou En Lai was asked in the 1970s whether the French Revolution was a success, he replied, "It's too early to tell.")

The real questions, I suppose, are what are the real lessons of this war and have we learned them?

+1, with the caveat that this is not moralizing but rather how great power speaks to adversity.

[bill]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

sold in dollars
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-22/iraq-oil-output-has-reached-a-20-year-high-shahristani-says-1-.html
Dec 22, 2011 9:55 AM MT
Iraq Oil Output Has Reached a 20-Year High, Shahristani Says
Iraqi crude oil production jumped to the highest level in at least 20 years, or more than 3 million barrels a day, said Hussain al-Shahristani, deputy prime minister for energy affairs.

[Dave Stratman]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

sold in dollars
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-22/iraq-oil-output-has-reached-a-20-year-high-shahristani-says-1-.html
Dec 22, 2011 9:55 AM MT
Iraq Oil Output Has Reached a 20-Year High, Shahristani Says
Iraqi crude oil production jumped to the highest level in at least 20 years, or more than 3 million barrels a day, said Hussain al-Shahristani, deputy prime minister for energy affairs.

That "sold in dollars" speaks volumes. See Don's initial post.

[don]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

obvious to all but . . .

[don]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

them fightin' words . . .

TEHRAN — Iran and Russia have replaced the U.S. dollar with their own currencies in their trade ties, a senior Iranian diplomat announced on Saturday.

Speaking to FNA, Tehran’s ambassador to Moscow, Seyed Reza Sajjadi said that the proposal for replacing the dollar with the ruble and rial was raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Astana on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting.

“Since then we have acted on this basis and a part of our interactions is done in ruble now,” Sajjadi stated, adding that many Iranian traders are using the ruble for their trade deals.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

Don--

I'd add a couple goals to those that you mention.

--The war destroyed Iraq as a secular state. A key strategy of the U.S. in the Middle east and Central Asia has for decades been to promote political Islam as a means of social control. Political Islam sounds militant and anti-Western, but it is profoundly authoritarian and conservative--exactly the sort of movement that the U.S. and the U.K. actively promote, sometimes openly, as in Afghanistan in the 1980s and '90s, sometimes covertly, as in Egypt and Iran.

--The Iraq war was used to control Americans and persuade them to accept a decade of worsening conditions and growing police-state control. One columnist (Steve Lopez) wrote in the Los Angeles Times, "There's a dirty secret [behind this war] no one has told you, and here it is: This war is not about changing Iraq, it's about changing America....The whole idea is to train you to expect less and to feel patriotic about it."

One could of course add many more--the further militarization of American society, the further enrichment of the arms military/industrial complex. But these will do.

Did the U.S. ruling elites accomplish their goals in Iraq? I would say they did, to a substantial degree, but at considerable political cost. They succeeded in projecting military power to new lands and Islamicising Iraq. They succeeded with their "weapon of mass distraction" in getting people to accept (more or less) the downgrading of their lives. But they exposed themselves more thoroughly to the world and to Americans as mere brigands. They also revealed some of their vulnerabilities (to I.E.D.s, guerrilla war, etc.). Perhaps it's too soon to measure their success or failure. (When Chou En Lai was asked in the 1970s whether the French Revolution was a success, he replied, "It's too early to tell.")

The real questions, I suppose, are what are the real lessons of this war and have we learned them?

I've posted previously about how I believe feminism was hijacked by aligned interests to make lower quality of life more palatable(Mommy used to have 1 full-time job, now she has 2, but she's been "liberated") and harder to question.

I've also posted about how I believe environmentalism/climate change has been hijacked by aligned interests for the same reason.

I can also see how war could be used to effect the same end state.

But what makes me think otherwise is how the US is NOT in a true wartime economy......the US military(and associated industry) ARE at war....but isn't the vast majority of the US public still at the Mall?

I definitely agree it's "too soon to tell" about quite a few things in the Middle East.

Iranian influence in Iraq is something I'd like to keep a close eye on.

I believe excessive/aggressive Iranian influence in Iraq could see the development of a less than completely overt alliance between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, US, and Israel to contain Iran.

Maybe Turkey too when it comes to nukes....since Turkey stands to lose relative power/influence with a nuclear armed neighbor on it's border.

But I think that if Iran can move carefully and cautiously they stand good odds of "winning" in terms of regional influence/control.

Looking back in 10-20-30 years will be interesting.

I wonder how much weight history will place on the very light US force structure in the early days that allowed the US to seize, but not effectively hold, Iraq....combined with the disbandment of the Iraqi Army/Police in the early days of the conflict?

The US is arguably the best in the world at "breaking stuff"........but the important parts that come after the "breaking stuff".....not so much.

Monday morning quarterback speculation.....but things could have turned out quite differently...I wonder how those lessons learned can be applied moving forward to reduce the chances of being repeated?

[don]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

a couple of of additions to your well-spoken comments . . .

the is no need now or in the foreseeable future for a WW2-like mobilization. These are "small wars". the US led the way in indirect rule, aka neocolonialism.

Bit by their experiences in the Philippines, the Platt Amendment proved the way to go, leaving behind the European overhead-heavy direct rule model. (see a century of dominance of Central America sans direct rule)



On a related subject, has anybody seen anything done on what appears to be an obvious link between pre-invasion Libya's threat to forgo the dollar reserve status, set up an African energy-based (and Libyan gold) central bank, and Italy's dependency on Libyan oil - in the context of the dollar's assault on the Euro.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Iraq: Kabuki Theater? Mission Accomplished?

a couple of of additions to your well-spoken comments . . .

the is no need now or in the foreseeable future for a WW2-like mobilization. These are "small wars". the US led the way in indirect rule, aka neocolonialism.

Bit by their experiences in the Philippines, the Platt Amendment proved the way to go, leaving behind the European overhead-heavy direct rule model. (see a century of dominance of Central America sans direct rule)



On a related subject, has anybody seen anything done on what appears to be an obvious link between pre-invasion Libya's threat to forgo the dollar reserve status, set up an African energy-based (and Libyan gold) central bank, and Italy's dependency on Libyan oil - in the context of the dollar's assault on the Euro.

The Iraq/Libya/Iran threats regarding oil trading in currencies other than the US Dollar are something I'm fairly cautious about.

I have to admit some worry about being perceived as a conspiracy theorist of some sorts for going down that track.......so I'm a bit reluctant to put much weight on that for the moment.

It would be interesting to post a poll here in iTulip to gauge the "wisdom of the crowd" on that topic.

One opinion I have for the push into Libya is to counter increasing Russian influence/control over Western Europe energy supply.

As I understand it, the US VERY aggressively opposed the Soviets pumping oil/gas to Western Europe during the Cold War.....allowing the Soviets to do so would have increased Soviet influence/control over NATO nations energy supplies as well as provide cash flow for extending the life of the Soviet Union.

I wonder if we are simply in Chapter 2 of the same game that was played in the 80's...but this time with Russia having lower "empire overheads" and fewer initial negative geopolitical barriers to entry in becoming Western Europe's heroin dealer?

Western Europe going into Libya....strongly supported by the US is a win/win for Western Europe(high quality/cheap to lift/logistically close and easy within EU sphere) and the US(blocks Russia gaining influence/control over EU/NATO nations)....isn't it?

But I am willing to look a bit harder at the connection with perceived attacks on the US Dollar as reserve currency.....but just worried about how that meme is perceived.