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  • #16
    Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

    If I might diverge from the discussion of when cheap oil runs-out in Hawaii, and to discuss when cheap oil runs-out in the entire world, I think cheap oil could be here for a thousand years or more. Maybe......

    We now know that North Dakota, western Colorado, southern Utah, Pennsylvania, western New York, south-eastern Saskatchewan, the north of England, and likely many other places in the world are floating on oil and natural-gas. We also know that the tar sands in Alberta will last for a century or more. We also know that there is more oil under southern California. We have not even begun to tap the sweet and cheap oil offshore of southern California. We know that there is oil offshore of Newfoundland. BP has proven massive quantities of oil available under the Gulf of Mexico. There is oil on the north-slope of Alaska and under the Beaufort Sea. There is oil to be taken by fracking under the Great Plains and High Plains of America. We know that coal can be converted to oil synthetically because that was done in WWII by the Germans. We also know that there is nat-gas available in the north of England, also in Pennsylvania and western New York. We also know that there is oil offshore of South America in the South Atlantic Ocean. There is oil offshore of Ecuador. There is oil under the Gulf of Mexico to be taken by fracking offshore of the Yucatan. There likely is oil under Brazil. There is likely oil under the Florida Straits offshore of Cuba...... And I haven't even begun to list the places in the rest of the world where hydro-carbon might be taken.

    If I might place a wager, there is hydro-carbon--- some of it cheap hydro-carbon--- almost everywhere in this world if we get off of our duffs and look for it.... This means telling the eco-frauds ( i.e, the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, the WWF, and all the rest of them ) where to stick their ideas about "sustainability", anthropogenic climate-change, and preservation of "the rare and endangered SF field-mouse".

    But I wanted to discuss proper city planning in this post. I wanted to discuss Scottsdale, Arizona which is planned around the automobile so that the city is CAR-FRIENDLY and consequently uses oil efficiently--- much more efficiently than the STUPID high-density city planning in other cities such as San Francisco, NYC, and London. But let me leave that discussion for another post here.

    The bottom-line is that hydro-carbon on this planet could well last almost forever, and the hydro-carbon may be cheap, too. This means fracking for hydro-carbon fuels, CAR-FRIENDLY low-density city planning as in Scottsdale, Arizona, and of-course, real power: hydro-electric, atomic, coal, and nat-gas.

    When I saw Scottsdale, Arizona this past week, I could not believe my eyes: CAR-FRIENDLY, LOW-DENSITY, ENERGY-EFFICIENT, BEAUTIFUL, CITY-PLANNING for PEOPLE AND THEIR CARS--- and not for "rare and endangered field-mice".

    But enough to-day from Starving Steve.

    And thank the twenty-five or thirty of you for your e-mails about Stalin's crimes.... I read every one of them.
    Last edited by Starving Steve; December 30, 2011, 04:05 PM.

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    • #17
      Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

      and Scottsdale is so indicative of the rest of the country. A shame . . .

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

        The military in Hawaii is going photovoltaic big time. If even they are acknowledging reality, we must have already hit the brick wall.

        I have no sympathy for people who complain about the high electrical rate in Hawaii but refuse to do the simplest things about it like put on an elastomeric roof and put up a solar water heater. If you do it yourself (and don't fall off the roof) an elastomeric roof costs $3,000, whereas a regular reroofing costs $25,0000 (when I did mine 7 years ago, people looked at me like I was an alien... now in some places half the roofs are elastomeric). A solar water heater after rebates costs $2,500, half the inflation adjusted price of what it was 30 years ago when I put mine up.

        Irrationality is very difficult to overcome.

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        • #19
          Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

          does anyone in the itulip brain trust have a cost per barrel for extracting crude from ND? So maybe there is a lot of oil, but is it cheap? It seems plausible to put up a geo-thermal plant on the Big Island. Are there other hot spots on Oahu and Maui? Also how are the breezes? Can a wind farm take advantage of normal coastal breezes? I did see a nice wind farm on south point 20 years ago. That cost for electricity seems crazy. My electricity is 6.5c per KWH. I think 2c for transmission.

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          • #20
            Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

            Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
            does anyone in the itulip brain trust have a cost per barrel for extracting crude from ND? So maybe there is a lot of oil, but is it cheap?
            One of the O&G companies that I helped start up has over 100,000 net acres in the (edit: North Dakota & Montana) Bakken, and many more in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

            All I can say is that the cost to extract are well within industry norms, and that almost all the oil is of a light sweet crude variety - which usually commands a market premium.

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            • #21
              Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

              For those who may be interested in reading more about the Bakken oil, here's a couple of recent articles from this side of the border ...

              Canadian companies flock to N. Dakota’s Bakken oil play
              http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...2285575/page1/

              Oil jobs the new gold as thousands join N.D. rush
              http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2283932/

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              • #22
                Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                If I might diverge from the discussion of when cheap oil runs-out in Hawaii, and to discuss when cheap oil runs-out in the entire world, I think cheap oil could be here for a thousand years or more. Maybe......

                We now know that North Dakota, western Colorado, southern Utah, Pennsylvania, western New York, south-eastern Saskatchewan, the north of England, and likely many other places in the world are floating on oil and natural-gas. We also know that the tar sands in Alberta will last for a century or more. We also know that there is more oil under southern California. We have not even begun to tap the sweet and cheap oil offshore of southern California. We know that there is oil offshore of Newfoundland. BP has proven massive quantities of oil available under the Gulf of Mexico. There is oil on the north-slope of Alaska and under the Beaufort Sea. There is oil to be taken by fracking under the Great Plains and High Plains of America. We know that coal can be converted to oil synthetically because that was done in WWII by the Germans. We also know that there is nat-gas available in the north of England, also in Pennsylvania and western New York. We also know that there is oil offshore of South America in the South Atlantic Ocean. There is oil offshore of Ecuador. There is oil under the Gulf of Mexico to be taken by fracking offshore of the Yucatan. There likely is oil under Brazil. There is likely oil under the Florida Straits offshore of Cuba...... And I haven't even begun to list the places in the rest of the world where hydro-carbon might be taken.

                If I might place a wager, there is hydro-carbon--- some of it cheap hydro-carbon--- almost everywhere in this world if we get off of our duffs and look for it.... This means telling the eco-frauds ( i.e, the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, the WWF, and all the rest of them ) where to stick their ideas about "sustainability", anthropogenic climate-change, and preservation of "the rare and endangered SF field-mouse".

                But I wanted to discuss proper city planning in this post. I wanted to discuss Scottsdale, Arizona which is planned around the automobile so that the city is CAR-FRIENDLY and consequently uses oil efficiently--- much more efficiently than the STUPID high-density city planning in other cities such as San Francisco, NYC, and London. But let me leave that discussion for another post here.

                The bottom-line is that hydro-carbon on this planet could well last almost forever, and the hydro-carbon may be cheap, too. This means fracking for hydro-carbon fuels, CAR-FRIENDLY low-density city planning as in Scottsdale, Arizona, and of-course, real power: hydro-electric, atomic, coal, and nat-gas.

                When I saw Scottsdale, Arizona this past week, I could not believe my eyes: CAR-FRIENDLY, LOW-DENSITY, ENERGY-EFFICIENT, BEAUTIFUL, CITY-PLANNING for PEOPLE AND THEIR CARS--- and not for "rare and endangered field-mice".

                But enough to-day from Starving Steve.
                Wow Steve,

                Is the onus on me to demonstrate that peak oil is not a fabrication or a misunderstanding, or is it on you to to prove your case? I can't quite figure it out. I'm not entirely sold on the peak oil thesis. In fact I reject outright the Malthusian argument. Bart, I think pointed out that the entire concept of "peak everything" we hear bandied about quite a bit, flies in the face of common sense. None the less I am going to insist that the peak oil concept the way it is presented in the wikipedia article is in fact the actual future of the world. I base this idea not on a close reading of Julian Simon or years of study of petroleum geology, but on the behavior of government agencies. I refer to the duplicitous act of obscuring the actual amount of oil that is being pumped by the the EIA and the cutting back of freely available statistics. These facts have been documented by Gregor Macdonald on his web site gregor.us. These acts can be explained away, but I think they point to a guilty conscience.

                http://gregor.us/eia/there-goes-the-...ia-washington/
                http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7349
                http://gregor.us/coal/coal-world/

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                • #23
                  Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                  Originally posted by GEC
                  I am not what you might call an environmentalist with a big "E", but I seem to be far to the left of you on this issue. Didn't Mooncliff say that electrical had been cut by about 50% via solar hot water heaters? This should be a big hint to you that the way to cheap sustainable power in Hawaii is not via schlepping rapidly depleting coal or oil to one of the most remote spots on earth. Hawaii should be a Mecca for geothermal ( see Iceland for an example ), and Solar power ( Most southern state ).
                  I'd say that while it may be that water heating is the largest area of consumption for residential, I very much doubt it displaces air conditioning when the rest of the consumption is tallied up. [In fact 105 billion btus out of 128 billion btus annual consumption is either commercial or industrial. Residential is the smallest consumer of electricity in Hawaii. From earlier link posted]

                  Geothermal might make sense on the Big Island, but the majority of Hawaii's population is not there. As for solar, the problem with solar is that it takes lots of land - and land is one thing which is very, very limited on an island. This also ignores the high capital costs for solar PV.

                  Originally posted by GEC
                  Do I need to remind you that the stuff you recommend burning to warm up the hot water in Hawaii is running out. You know, like the title of this thread. Another big potential energy source there is ethanol. Hawaii used to be a major sugar cane producer. Cane sugar ethanol has dramatically lower cost structure from corn ethanol. Recently subsidies on corn ethanol have been reduced. Hawaii could become a cane sugar ethanol superpower. In the future ethanol will be the only widely available gasoline substitute. With enlightened management, Hawaii might become a showcase of how to convert to an energy independent sustainable future.
                  I'd say that if you're such a fan of cane sugar ethanol, you might consider the actual human labor costs of such a process. One of the primary reasons why Brazilian cane sugar is so cheap is because labor is so cheap there.

                  I for one don't see thousands of Hawaiians switching over into becoming cane sugar harvesters:

                  http://www.grist.org/article/slave-ethanol

                  After Australia, Brazil has the lowest cost of production of sugar in the world because it exploits workers. In the state of São Paulo, the cost of production is $165 dollars per ton. In the European Union the cost is $700 dollars per ton.
                  Last edited by c1ue; December 31, 2011, 08:15 PM.

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                  • #24
                    Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                    Ethanol ( both corn and cane ethanol ) has less energy in it than gasoline made from oil. So ethanol burns quicker in your fuel tank. Any savings from ethanol are an illusion because ethanol won't allow you to travel as far per gallon of fuel as gasoline will..... And this is why the love-affair with ethanol is over, and government subsidies for ethanol are ending.

                    If you want really cheap and abundant fuel, might I suggest using water in your fuel tank? Mix the water 50:50 to gasoline and drive away. Maybe you can get the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, et.al. to encourage government to subsidize this watering of fuel? Might we call this: "fuel-hydrogenation"?

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                    • #25
                      Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                      There is already geothermal on the Big Island, but the problem would be how to get it to Oahu. There are plans for an undersea cable, but that seems a bit out there since it would be hundreds of miles.

                      If everyone would put on a heat reflecting elastomeric roof, their air conditioning would go to zero or near zero. A solar water heater would drop the remaining kwhs by half. A family could then reasonably get by with 200 to 300 kWh per month, which would be around $100 dollars. Considering we don't have significant heating costs, that seems very reasonable and not worth thinking about. Friends on the mainland complain that their heating bill is $300 a month. My mom's total annual household energy cost is $600, $50 dollars a month for electricity. I could get that to zero with a $3000 photovoltaic system with no subsidy, but am planning on putting in a bigger system. My dad's cost is zero since he installed a solar water heater and then installed a photovoltaic system.
                      My neighbor put on an elastomeric roof and said his air conditioning cost dropped by $2000 per year. This is reaching critical mass where everyone knows about this now, so I expect adoption to accelerate.

                      We really don't need more supply; we need to drastically up the efficiency. I just swapped out 100 incandescents for LEDs in houses of friends, neighbors, and relatives, and so cut the use of electricity for those lights by 90%. People just couldn't believe that the whole house was lit up for 70 watts total. Our hot water has been free for 30 years by using a solar water heater.

                      Same at my apartment in Japan. LEDs, new air conditioner/heat pump, TV, and refrigerator cut my electric bill in half, so the bill is $60 to $90 dollars a month, again in the not worth thinking level. Offices are starting to think about converting to LED lighting, which would cut the electricity use for lighting by half and drastically reduce the amount of nonsense heat that would have to be removed during the peak of summer.

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                      • #26
                        Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                        Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                        Ethanol ( both corn and cane ethanol ) has less energy in it than gasoline made from oil. So ethanol burns quicker in your fuel tank. Any savings from ethanol are an illusion because ethanol won't allow you to travel as far per gallon of fuel as gasoline will..... And this is why the love-affair with ethanol is over, and government subsidies for ethanol are ending.

                        If you want really cheap and abundant fuel, might I suggest using water in your fuel tank? Mix the water 50:50 to gasoline and drive away. Maybe you can get the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, et.al. to encourage government to subsidize this watering of fuel? Might we call this: "fuel-hydrogenation"?
                        Steve ... I was up very late last night and am working on my second cup-a-joe this AM. Joyeux Noël et Bonne année by the way. I'm feeling a little punchy, but I will try to keep this civil. Before I launch into my first 2012 rant, I want to re-iterate that I am not what most people would refer to as as environmentalist. I am opposed to recycling on principle. I think most mass transit plans funded via taxation are regressive and inefficient. I support plans to drill for oil off the California coast. With that out of the way:

                        *) Let's assume for purposes of argument that the doubling in gas cost in the space of, what? five years? is the product of a conspiracy between the Sierra club, the Federal Reserve and the Bavarian Illuminati. What do you propose we do about it? Do you think that this supposed conspiracy is going to stop soon? What is your pain point? $10/gallon? $15? What about $50? From the prospective of a daily driver, the conspiracy plan looks the same as a shortage of oil.

                        *) Ethanol has had an immediate tangible impact on daily life in the US. When I was a kid gas had lead in it. This was replace by ~10% ethanol as a lubricant. Children and pets where getting high doses of lead just because they where lower to the ground. Lead causes brain damage and slows growth. This is a "tax" that I thoroughly support.

                        *) Once again I find myself in the position of defending peak oil. Why am I doing this? At this point isn't the onus on you to make your case? The concept of global peak oil is open to debate, but the idea of peak oil in the US is not. Peak oil was reached in the early 70s in the US and this is a matter of public record. Efforts to fill the gap have served only to slow the decline in recent years. We are out of "Texas tea" and we will run out of Light Sweet Crude everywhere. The good stuff is gone or will be gone soon. This has been exhaustively chronicled by Gregor.us over the years.

                        *) What if we found a substance that worked 1/10 as well as gas to run our cars at a reasonable price? I for one would drive a greyhound bus with the entire thing full of fuel tanks just to get to work and back, IF GAS WAS NO LONGER AVAILABLE! This was the situation during the gas shock of the 1970s ( remember gas lines? odd and even days? ) also gas rationing was instituted during WW2. With the Bavarian Illuminati hard at work to limit our access to gas the government stepped in and prevented you from getting any gas. This will happen again, I promise!

                        *) Ethanol and E85 don't work well in flex-fuel engines because they are not tuned specifically to run exclusively on ethanol. The wikipedia page spells out that the answer to this is higher compression ( good for the environment ). This doesn't solve, but greatly ameliorates the problems with ethanol as a fuel, but it doesn't matter, because when the only fuel available is ethanol you will take what you can get.

                        *) In the capital constrained world of the near future( due to the influence of the Illuminati no doubt), the only industry that people will invest in are projects that already have an installed based, i.e. that are already going concerns. Ethanol is already a big industry. It will get bigger.

                        An ethanol fueled America will be an impoverished America, make no mistake. This is not a future I am looking forward to.

                        I'm going to lie down now.

                        -Global
                        Last edited by globaleconomicollaps; January 01, 2012, 05:05 PM. Reason: putrid french

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                        • #27
                          Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                          Mooncliff, what do solar hot water heaters cost where you are? Over here they're about $5,000. As much as I would like one in principle, I'm just not that rich. Can you point me in a direction of an affordable one?

                          I've swapped my incandescant bulbs for LEDs- like them! Swapped out the old 19" CRT TV for a 26" flat screen edge-lit LED LCD TV- like it a lot! Plugged all the TV, DVD and CD players, stereo and tuner into a surge protector, which is switched off when they aren't being used. That stops the trickling electrical use. I built my computer using an energy efficient motherboard, CPU, powersupply and fans. It runs cool and silent and draws very little power.

                          I'm trying to cool down the kitchen on the west end of the house because it gets so hot in the summer. We put in double-pane insulated windows and use insulated drapes in there, but the main heat producers besides the sun are the gas oven/range and the refrigerator. I'm thinking about removing the stove and switching to an induction cooktop- they don't put any heat into the room even when they're cooking- they're amazing! That and a pressure cooker should reduce cooking time and resultant heat in the kitchen.

                          The other thing I'm considering is replacing my old 'fridge with a SunFrost refrigerator. It would cost about 2-3X the price of a typical new POS refrigerator, but they're a lot more efficient, they don't put out any heat and it should last about 25 years.

                          The other plus to cooling down the kitchen is that the A/C won't have to run as hard.

                          Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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                          • #28
                            Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                            This discussion is straying from the original idea I was trying to put across, but I will try to answer.

                            Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                            I'd say that while it may be that water heating is the largest area of consumption for residential, I very much doubt it displaces air conditioning when the rest of the consumption is tallied up. [In fact 105 billion btus out of 128 billion btus annual consumption is either commercial or industrial. Residential is the smallest consumer of electricity in Hawaii. From earlier link posted]
                            The main issue with peak oil globally is liquid fuels not electricity. As mooncliff points out a program of conservation and smart design can reduce most residential use to negligible levels. Hawaii is of note because the residential rates are higher than the mainland. I think that people have not adopted conservation policies yet because the electric bill is just not a significant fraction of their income. This might change, if the price goes up, leading to more availability and less need to import fossil fuels. Put another way, prices are not high enough in Hawaii ;-) . In San Francisco I was paying $0.42/kwh for "over baseline" electrical. This translated for me into about $100/month. I got off my duff and changed out the regular bulbs for CFLs. I saved about $20.

                            Originally posted by c1ue View Post

                            Geothermal might make sense on the Big Island, but the majority of Hawaii's population is not there. As for solar, the problem with solar is that it takes lots of land - and land is one thing which is very, very limited on an island. This also ignores the high capital costs for solar PV.
                            Here I expose myself as talking out of my ass, but I am trying to visualize a future where energy is expensive and just plain unavailable. This is the situation we had to deal with in the oil shock of the 1970s. High oil price doesn't just mean high gas price, it means gas is unavailable and off market. If you are old enough, you lived through this. Governments love rationing. It gives them an opportunity to reward their friends and punish their enemies. If prices continue to rise I guarantee that rationing will be back. The idea of turning Hawaii into an energy mecca doesn't just mean the lights stay on when everybody else has a blackout, it also means new industry and opportunities. For instance right now bauxite ore is imported via ocean going barge ( from the other side of the world) into Canada to be refined into aluminum because of cheap hydroelectric power.


                            Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                            I'd say that if you're such a fan of cane sugar ethanol, you might consider the actual human labor costs of such a process. One of the primary reasons why Brazilian cane sugar is so cheap is because labor is so cheap there.

                            I for one don't see thousands of Hawaiians switching over into becoming cane sugar harvesters:

                            http://www.grist.org/article/slave-ethanol
                            Thanks for the link. I will read it later. Remember my thesis, high gas prices don't just mean expensive gas they mean no gas whatsoever. If cane harvesting returns to Hawaii, most likely it will use heavy automation and the same low labor techniques used in Europe. With this comparative competitive disadvantage over Brazil, it will still beat out Iowa corn as a source of ethanol.
                            Last edited by globaleconomicollaps; January 01, 2012, 05:01 PM.

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                            • #29
                              Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                              Mini-nuclear is cost effective for small towns because mini-nuclear is used on ships and subs to-day. And then you supplement that with a back-up system such as nat-gas or coal, or maybe both nat-gas and coal. That would mean Hawaii could have 7cent electricity forever..... There would be no major start-up cost for such a system.

                              An island such as Kauai could install a back-up large central-system rather easily and cheaply. (It probably has such a system there already in-place.) And then the island could have mini-nuclear cells powering the island's small towns: one cell for each small town. It's rather simple, and General Electric would assist, just as GE did with Duke Energy Company in the South-eastern U.S. GE helped Southern Electric to go nuclear as well. Southern Electric serves Alabama and the Florida panhandle with dirt cheap electric power.

                              Within a year, Hawaiians could have 7cent electric power on each island, if they really want to. The conversion cost would be next-to-nothing.

                              Hawaiians do not have to use General Electric company. They could select Westinghouse, Babcock & Wilcox, Mitsubishi, or any electrical-engineering company that they choose...... But the point is: to get moving on this and to stop wasting time with the eco-bunch.

                              The Duke of Edinburgh had some choice words for the eco-bunch and their "green" solutions to the electric energy-crisis in the British Isles. He spoke in London a few weeks ago at a windmill conference. The British ( and the Hawaiians ) would do well to heed his remarks.
                              Last edited by Starving Steve; January 01, 2012, 09:49 PM.

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                              • #30
                                Re: Preview of when cheap oil runs out

                                Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                                The Duke of Edinburgh had some choice words for the eco-bunch and their "green" solutions to the electric energy-crisis in the British Isles. He spoke in London a few weeks ago at a windmill conference. The British ( and the Hawaiians ) would do well to heed his remarks.
                                I'd be curious to see what he said.... do you have access to more information? a link to more details?

                                I couldn't find anything online about that particular conference. I did find brief news stories:
                                http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-disgrace.html

                                and also a response to this story which includes interesting data and viewpoints.
                                http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/r...seless#block-7
                                 
                                 
                                If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will.

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