Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

[KGW]

The level of sheer aggression in the American Elite is almost stunning.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakuma...s-pre-planned/

[don]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

De-stabilization caught in the act.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

A couple questions:

1.) Why do we quickly and rightfully question F.I.R.E. related media, but fail to consider that Pakistan's Dawn(as well as much of the rest of Pakistani, and Chinese, media) may be suffering from similar levels of influence/control from ISI/MSS?

Surely it's safe to say that Pakistani and Chinese media would likely be similarly infiltrated by their respective entrenched interests?

2.) Is anyone aware of the VERY large number of cross border direct/indirect fire incidents originating from Pakistani territory targeting ANA/ANP/ISAF forces in recent years?

If you're astute enough to collect/analyze news from regional sources it would be even easier to find reputable(often first hand reports) information from the Afghani/ISAF side of the fence sharing the many incidents of repeated cross border shelling on the part of Pakistani forces.

Surely this incident should be put into perspective with the MANY other cross border incidents?

Although it's probably best if I call it "border" rather than border.

I viewed a mobile phone video reportedly taken at some period after the attack on the Pakistani FOB. What was interesting was the level of English language video narration in a remote Pakistani army outpost where Punjabi would likely be the default language....yet it's English....and it wasn't post production dubbed.

It's like John Le Carre meets Rudyard Kipling

3.) Iran/UAV...who knows...I'm sure we'll learn some more eventually.

If it were up to me I'd be aggressively surveilling Iran...much as the Iranians aggressively surveil Afghanistan via mobile phone networks and other means within their level of capability.

Maybe the Pakistani border incident(on top of the heaps preceding it), the retaliatory border closing harming ISAF logistics(on top of the ones preceding it), and the Iranian UAV incident are all as claimed by the main thread links......or maybe the truth lies somewhere in the wisdom of crowds.

Maybe the pending war EJ refers to is simply the next chapter of the existing decade+ of conflict.

[Master Shake]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

And you consider an Indian blog credible why?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

At this point, the question isn't whether you find the Indian blog or Dawn or the Daily Times or the Express credible, it's your assessment of Major General Ashfaq Nadeem, director general of military operations and the Pakistani government that matters.

No one is denying that Nadeem said what he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7B808S20111209

Nadeem made the remarks to a Senate committee on defense on Thursday. Senator Tariq Azim, who attended the briefing, confirmed to Reuters that Nadeem had made the comments.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

At this point, the question isn't whether you find the Indian blog or Dawn or the Daily Times or the Express credible, it's your assessment of Major General Ashfaq Nadeem, director general of military operations and the Pakistani government that matters.

No one is denying that Nadeem said what he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7B808S20111209

Nadeem made the remarks to a Senate committee on defense on Thursday. Senator Tariq Azim, who attended the briefing, confirmed to Reuters that Nadeem had made the comments.

What about the question of putting into perspective the frequent Pakistani direct and indirect fire across the porous border targeting ANA, ANP, and ISAF forces without reprisal due to restrictive ISAF rules of engagement with both organic weapon systems and close air support?

What about the fact that much of the Pakistani commentary may be directed at an angry domestic audience rather than an international one?

It wouldn't be the first time that public commentary meant for domestic consumption was released while a less than perfectly aligned message is sent via more discrete and less overt diplomatic channels. NOt saying that's the case here.....but isn't Pakistan having to try and shape the media to keep two disparate and opposing opinions(domestic/US led international) happy?

ISAF will be in a vulnerable state and Pakistan has the resources and ability to make a drawing down ISAF's life quite miserable...so why risk the increased retaliatory cost/casualties? Doesn't make sense.

If there is going to be speculation about the US/ISAF actually provoking Pakistan for the purpose of provocation, then there should be equally unlikely speculation about Pakistan creating a "come on" to allow it to enact a public consumption and/or genuine policy shift.

If I was speculating I'd consider it a distinct possibility that one of more of the military personnel stationed at the Pakistani FOB that was attacked were active or complicit in attacking ISAF, or enablers for insurgents that did...in a significant way....significant enough to risk retaliation in the form of temporarily cutting off logistical supply lines thru Pakistan.

How much reliable information is reaching the public domain about contacts between Pakistani and ANA/ANP/ISAF forces? I'm hearing/reading about a bit of it from folks I trust and respect.

And a quick comment about logistical supply lines into Afghanistan...serious effort has been made to reduce reliance on Pakistan to well under 1/3...with the remainder coming mostly through a northern route thru the Kablamistans...and the balance thru very, very, very expensive air shipment.

Anyway you cut it......logistical support for the Afghan mission is horrendously expensive.

Cut the Afghanistan mission and redirect efforts towards closer alignment with India against Pakistan/China.

[Master Shake]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

At this point, the question isn't whether you find the Indian blog or Dawn or the Daily Times or the Express credible, it's your assessment of Major General Ashfaq Nadeem, director general of military operations and the Pakistani government that matters.

No one is denying that Nadeem said what he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7B808S20111209

Nadeem made the remarks to a Senate committee on defense on Thursday. Senator Tariq Azim, who attended the briefing, confirmed to Reuters that Nadeem had made the comments.

OK, one of Pakistan's many corrupt officers said it. Political kabuki within the country. The OP and first commenter indicated that they think that's what really happened. Some people act like Sherlock Holmes when it comes to what they read in our own media (as they should), but turn into Mr. Magoo when it comes to hearing what they want to hear in a foreign blog.

[don]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The Central Intelligence Agency has vacated an air base in western Pakistan that it had been using for drone strikes against militants in the country’s tribal areas, the Pakistani military said on Sunday.

Pakistan had ordered the C.I.A. to leave the Shamsi air base in protest over NATO airstrikes that killed at least 25 Pakistani soldiers near the border with Afghanistan on Nov. 26. Pakistan has also blocked all NATO logistical supplies from crossing the border into Afghanistan since the clash.

Pentagon and Obama administration officials declined to comment publicly on the departure from the Shamsi air base.

But a senior American counterterrorism official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the drone operations at Shamsi were classified, said that vacating the base would not end American counterterrorism operations in Pakistan. “The United States retains robust capabilities to fight Al Qaeda and its militant allies,” the official said. “Our operations will continue.”

Pakistani officials have repeatedly accused NATO forces of deliberately attacking the Pakistani soldiers at two military check posts; American officials have said the airstrikes were an unfortunate accident.

In response to the attacks, Pakistan gave the C.I.A. 15 days to vacate the Shamsi base, which is about 200 miles southwest of the city of Quetta in Baluchistan Province. Inter Services Public Relations, the media wing of the Pakistani military, said the last flight carrying American personnel and equipment left the base on Sunday. “The base has been taken over by the army,” the agency’s statement said.

While United States officials do not comment publicly on drone operations against militants who plan attacks on Afghanistan from havens in the Pakistani tribal areas, operations had been reduced at the Shamsi air base since May, when a Navy Seal commando raid killed Osama bin Laden near Islamabad. The United States also carries out drone strikes from bases in Afghanistan.

After the Bin Laden raid, Pakistan insisted that the C.I.A. shut down its operations at the Shamsi base, but it later relented, permitting scaled-down operations.

The attacks on the Pakistani check points two weeks ago have stoked nationalist passions in the country, where anti-American sentiment was already running high.

Angry demonstrations erupted after the airstrikes, and in an additional sign of protest, the Pakistani government decided not to attend an international conference on the future of Afghanistan held last week in Bonn, Germany.

Although American officials have expressed hope that their working relationship with the Pakistanis will not break down, Pakistani officials have insisted on rewriting the rules of bilateral cooperation.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said Sunday in an interview with the BBC that Pakistan might continue to block NATO supply convoys from entering Afghanistan for several more weeks.

“There is a credibility gap,” Mr. Gilani told the BBC. “We are working together, and still we don’t trust each other.”

To build confidence, Mr. Gilani said, Pakistan is creating what he called “new rules of engagement with the United States.”

“Then I think we should trust each other better,” he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/wo...ef=global-home

[c1ue]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

Cut the Afghanistan mission and redirect efforts towards closer alignment with India against Pakistan/China.

You think this is a good idea? To drive Pakistan into alignment with Iran and China?

[Master Shake]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

The Pakis are corrupt double-dealers who make Machiavelli look like a naif.

[KGW]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

I wouldn't discount the CIA/Pentagon going back in time to plant Nico's work...

BTW, K Bhadrakumar is a former Indian career diplomat who has served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow. I have been reading his columns in the Asia Times for years, as well as his blog http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/

He has an intimate knowledge of the region.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

You think this is a good idea? To drive Pakistan into alignment with Iran and China?

Not necessarily.......it seems to be a rock/hard place decision.

I believe the US and India are more naturally aligned for a chance at a successful long term partnership.

But failing to rent/lease Pakistan's favor will result in China developing transportation infrastructure from the Gulf to China....negating China's near total reliance on it's SLOC(sea lanes of communication) that the US Navy can easily interdict...giving China more options and better access to the Gulf

But Pakistan would probably head down that track anyway.......China doesn't question/care what Pakistan does as long as China gets what it wants.

So I think there could be a 3rd choice if US/Pakistani relations irreparably deteriorate....once US forces drawdown....shatter the Pakistani rock.

Pakistan is a recently created artificial country, maybe some would see benefits in ripping it into smaller and possibly more manageable pieces.

Who knows......maybe "Free Balochistan!" will start to get more airtime.

I hope to find out more with my own eyes and ears in the new year.

[Prazak]

Re: Pak-Attack Pre-Planned...

So I think there could be a 3rd choice if US/Pakistani relations irreparably deteriorate....once US forces drawdown....shatter the Pakistani rock.

Pakistan is a recently created artificial country, maybe some would see benefits in ripping it into smaller and possibly more manageable pieces.

Who knows......maybe "Free Balochistan!" will start to get more airtime.

I hope to find out more with my own eyes and ears in the new year.

Not with nuclear weapons on both sides of Kashmir pointed at each other.

Pakistan is already aligned with China and Iran. But the U.S. has to retain influence there. USD payments to the generals will have to be part of that equation.

[KGW]

Badrakumar's latest in the Asia Times...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ML13Df03.html

US outed, and far from drawn down
By M K Bhadrakumar

The United States-Pakistan relationship has reached a turning point reminiscent of the run-up to October 1958, when Washington encouraged General Ayub Khan's coup, apprehending the coming into power of an elected government in Pakistan that might have refused to collaborate as the US's Cold War ally against the Soviet Union.