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Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

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  • Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

    What do Patricia Kluge and the Chinese government have in common? They both look rich, but they’re both bankrupt.

    This month the Wall Street Journal reported:
    Socialite Patricia Kluge had debts of $47.5 million when she filed for bankruptcy, and so she had to sell off her 45-room house, her Virginia winery and lots of jewelry. As if that weren’t enough, Kluge may now have to sell two marble cupid statues. Bankruptcy Beat reported that a bankruptcy trustee wants to sell the statues at an auction in January in Philadelphia. The cupids, which “possibly” date back to the 1800s, are worth $4,000 to $6,000.
    That’s what happens when your debts exceed your assets. And that, according to Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, is the state of China's government finances.

    In a private speech in late October that was not supposed to be recorded, the professor divulged

    He asserts that:
    • The regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). The total is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt of US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion and debt owed by state-owned enterprises, another US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion.

    • The real inflation rate is 16 percent, not 6.3% as the regime claims.

    • There is serious excess capacity in the economy. Private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Starting this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7.

    • China’s economy is in recession. GDP has decreased 10 percent

    • Taxes are ridiculously high. Taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) are at 70 percent of earnings and the individual tax rate sits at 81.6 percent.

    Prof. Lang is no crank. He got both his Master and Ph.D. degrees in Finance from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania in 1986. He has been lecturer at the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania and professor of Finance at Graduate School of Business, Michigan State University, the College of Business, Ohio State University, the Stern School of Business, New York University and Visiting Professor of Finance at Graduate School of Business, the University of Chicago. Now he is Chair Professor of Finance, the Faculty of Business Administration, the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

    From 1994 to 1996 he was Partner of GITIC-Lehman Infrastructure Fund, Lehman Brothers. From 1998 to 2000 he worked as Consultant on Corporate Governance Projects to World Bank, Washington, D.C. After that he was Consultant on WTO/Banking Issues to Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

    Now Prof. Lang is Consultant on Corporate Governance to China Shenzhen Stock Exchange Hong Kong Government.

    In addition to stating that China’s regime is bankrupt, Lang also talked about the censorship that is placed on intellectuals and public figures. According to The Epoch Times, he said:
    “What I’m about to say is all true. But under this system, we are not allowed to speak the truth,” he said.

    He said: “Don’t think that we are living in a peaceful time now. Actually the media cannot report anything at all. Those of us who do TV shows are so miserable and frustrated, because we cannot do any programs. As long as something is related to the government, we cannot report about it.”

    He said that the regime doesn’t listen to experts, and that Party officials are insufferably arrogant. “If you don’t agree with him, he thinks you are against him,” he said.
    After that outburst of truthfulness, we hope Prof. Lang is making arrangements to leave Hong Kong for safer ground.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

    How does a Chinese bankruptcy play out. In the case of Ms. Kluge, her creditors turn the screws on her, and she either
    has to declare bankruptcy or sell assets, or both.

    Who is the Chinese debt owed to? The people? The banks? Foreigners both public and private? Who is going to take the haircut? Who has the power to make sure they get paid in full?

    Are there some metrics I can watch to see the stress levels cranking up? Like bank bonds, or Reits if those exist over there?

    I assume that if China blows up, oil and Dr. Copper will flash a warning signal, or will Dr. Copper be late to the party.
    Copper has given back a little, but it hasn't even pulled back to spring of 2010 levels ... yet.
    Last edited by charliebrown; November 15, 2011, 04:50 PM.

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    • #3
      Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

      Originally posted by FRED View Post
      Prof. Lang is no crank. He got both his Master and Ph.D. degrees in Finance from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania in 1986. He has been lecturer at the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania and professor of Finance at Graduate School of Business, Michigan State University, the College of Business, Ohio State University, the Stern School of Business, New York University and Visiting Professor of Finance at Graduate School of Business, the University of Chicago. Now he is Chair Professor of Finance, the Faculty of Business Administration, the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
      Here is his profile from the University's web site. It has contact information... I wonder if he's giving interviews?

      (I looked him up because the article describes him as a "Chair Professor of Finance" which is somewhat odd phrasing, at least in the US. Normally the holder of a named "chair" would be referred to as the "so-and-so Professor of thus-and-such" or the "so-and-so chair of thus-and-such". The university's web site did not clarify this minor point, but I figured I'd post the link anyway.)
      Last edited by ASH; November 15, 2011, 06:34 PM.

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      • #4
        Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

        Always had some problems with organ harvesting as reported by the Epoch Times, ah well who knows...

        In the view of some observers[who?], the newspaper's credibility was damaged by Wang Wenyi,[18] who used her Epoch Times journalist pass to gain access to a White House lawn press briefing where she yelled at Chinese President Hu Jintao over recent allegations of organ harvesting from Falun Gong practitioners in China.[44][45] In turn, The Epoch Times apologized to the U.S. President,[46] whilst denying any direct ties to, or funding from, Falun Gong.[18] Dr. Liu Kang, professor of Chinese Cultural Studies at Duke University, claimed in 2006 that the paper did not adhere to basic journalistic standards of professionalism and objectivity, and is "not viewed as an independent objective news media" by members of the Chinese Diaspora;[18] he also referred to the Wang incident. Liu remarked that the newspaper is seen by the overseas Chinese community as "Falun Gong propaganda".
        James Bettinger, a professor of Communications at Stanford University and the director of the John S. Knight Journalism Fellowships, said "Even if the Epoch Times is not associated with Falun Gong, if they consistently write about Falun Gong in the same perspective, or if there are no articles examining Falun Gong, people would perceive it as being not credible."[18]
        Others critics have given different opinions. Orville Schell, dean of the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, said in 2005 that "It's hard to vouch for their quality because it's difficult to corroborate, but it's not something to be dismissed as pure propaganda."[4]#
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times

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        • #5
          Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

          Originally posted by ASH View Post
          Here is his profile from the University's web site. It has contact information... I wonder if he's giving interviews?

          (I looked him up because the article describes him as a "Chair Professor of Finance" which is somewhat odd phrasing, at least in the US. Normally the holder of a named "chair" would be referred to as the "so-and-so Professor of thus-and-such" or the "so-and-so chair of thus-and-such". The university's web site did not clarify this minor point, but I figured I'd post the link anyway.)
          We have requested an interview, on or off the record. We shall see!
          Ed.

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          • #6
            Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

            The Epoch Times linked YouTube audio, so the credibility of the newspaper doesn't have to enter into it, provided you believe the claims about the source of the audio... and if you've got friends who speak Chinese... and they are close enough friends to sit through 4 hours of audio to corroborate the article...

            Last edited by ASH; November 15, 2011, 07:05 PM.

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            • #7
              Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

              Originally posted by D-Mack View Post
              Always had some problems with organ harvesting as reported by the Epoch Times, ah well who knows...


              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times
              It's a fair criticism of The Epoch Times, which is why we so rarely quote it here.

              On the other hand, how much of the Chinese growth "miracle" is based on fabrications that cannot be questioned by domestic experts like Lang except by those who accept the threat of imprisonment?
              Ed.

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              • #8
                Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                Originally posted by FRED View Post
                It's a fair criticism of The Epoch Times, which is why we so rarely quote it here.

                On the other hand, how much of the Chinese growth "miracle" is based on fabrications that cannot be questioned by domestic experts like Lang except by those who accept the threat of imprisonment?

                I'm skeptical. Given the ubiquity of cell phone video recorders these days, anybody who's paying attention at all knows that anything you do or say can end up on YouTube instantaneously.

                Based on his CV, Lang's a pretty bright guy. So I wonder first, did he really say all that, and second, if he did, did he really expect it to remain private? Or could this just be a Chinese version of kabuki?

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                • #9
                  Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                  Originally posted by Andreuccio View Post
                  I'm skeptical. Given the ubiquity of cell phone video recorders these days, anybody who's paying attention at all knows that anything you do or say can end up on YouTube instantaneously.

                  Based on his CV, Lang's a pretty bright guy. So I wonder first, did he really say all that, and second, if he did, did he really expect it to remain private? Or could this just be a Chinese version of kabuki?
                  I doubt he meant to keep this off the air. The question is whether he was encouraged by powerful people to give the speech. Why did he say these things? Who benefits?

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                  • #10
                    Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                    Originally posted by aaron View Post
                    I doubt he meant to keep this off the air. The question is whether he was encouraged by powerful people to give the speech. Why did he say these things? Who benefits?
                    Exactly.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                      Originally posted by FRED View Post
                      That’s what happens when your debts exceed your assets.
                      Originally posted by FRED View Post
                      • The regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). The total is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt of US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion and debt owed by state-owned enterprises, another US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion.
                      Seems a pretty meaningless figure without any estimation of assets. How was the 'Bankrupt' assertion in the title of this thread calculated?

                      edit: Reuters: China foreign exchange reserves hit $3.2 trillion
                      Last edited by renewable; November 16, 2011, 01:57 AM.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                        Originally posted by renewable View Post
                        Seems a pretty meaningless figure without any estimation of assets. How was the 'Bankrupt' assertion in the title of this thread calculated?

                        edit: Reuters: China foreign exchange reserves hit $3.2 trillion
                        We plan to translate the entire 4 hour speech for ourselves to find more details, but from what we've heard so far he means bankrupt in the same sense that the term is used when applied to Greece.
                        Ed.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                          Originally posted by FRED View Post
                          We plan to translate the entire 4 hour speech for ourselves to find more details, but from what we've heard so far he means bankrupt in the same sense that the term is used when applied to Greece.
                          greece doesn't have $3.2 trillion in reserves.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                            Originally posted by FRED View Post
                            We plan to translate the entire 4 hour speech for ourselves to find more details, but from what we've heard so far he means bankrupt in the same sense that the term is used when applied to Greece.

                            Went through one hour plus, the Epoch article is too brief.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Is China Wealthy? No, Bankrupt.

                              Actually being bankrupt is not about assets - liabilities, it is cashflows being sufficient to cover principle and interest on the debt. You do not want to be in a position where you have to start selling assets to meet creditors demand.
                              I know China's debt to gdp is low by western standards, but we know that there are a lot of shenaningans in the numbers, and is this ratio equally applicable in developed vs. emerging nations.

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