Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

[Slimprofits]

http://www.themillions.com/2011/11/o...-oklahoma.html

By Brian Ted Jones posted at 6:00 am on November 10, 2011

This past Saturday, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck the tiny town of Sparks in Lincoln County, Oklahoma. The quake was one of the largest ever recorded in the state’s history, and another example of the sharp increase in seismic activity Oklahoma has experienced in recent years. Up through 2009, Oklahoma had averaged about fifty earthquakes a year. The total number of quakes reported in 2010? 1,047.

[..]

Energy companies deny that fracking causes earthquakes, and seismologist Austin Holland at the Oklahoma Geological Survey told the Associated Press there’s no reason — at this point — to blame these quakes on anything other than normal seismic activity.

However, Mr. Holland has studied this question before, and his findings were quite a bit more troubling — even if his way of putting them was transparently cautious. In a paper entitled “Examination of Possibly Induced Seismicity from Hydraulic Fracturing in the Eola Field, Garvin County, Oklahoma” (available here), Mr. Holland said:

The strong spatial and temporal correlations to the hydraulic-fracturing in Picket Unit B Well 4-18 [located in Garvin County Oklahoma] certainly suggest that the earthquakes observed in the Eola Field [also in Garvin County Oklahoma] could have possibly been triggered by this activity.

In that same paper, Mr. Holland admitted an important proximity in time between fracking and episodes of unusual seismicity, noted that the epicenters of the Garvin County earthquakes were within five kilometers of the injection wells, and that the earthquakes occurred at, or near, the associated injection depths. Mr. Holland’s conclusion, however, was basically, “Still — we can’t say for sure that fracking causes earthquakes.”

More troubling by far, though, is Mr. Holland’s weird epilogue, in which he agrees that studying the relationship between fracking and earthquakes might have one useful outcome: “It may also be possible to identify what criteria may affect the likelihood of anthropogenically induced earthquakes and provide oil and gas operators the ability to minimize any adverse effects[.]”

Perhaps I got lost in Mr. Holland’s grammar, but aren’t the earthquakes the adverse effects we’re talking about here?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

...Perhaps I got lost in Mr. Holland’s grammar, but aren’t the earthquakes the adverse effects we’re talking about here?

Excellent point, but there is another way to look at it.

Study might show us how to make many small earthquakes rather than one big one, thereby minimizing damage. Or perhaps show how the quakes can be scheduled, to reduce alarms and disruptions.

This field of study might show us how to cause quakes at major faults with no goal of getting out oil. Maybe we could relieve stresses on the San Andreas and avert the next major quake by scheduling many intentional small ones.

[c1ue]

Re: Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

Indeed - if fracking is releasing pent up earthquake potential earlier, as opposed to creating it, it is unclear if this is really a net negative effect.

[lektrode]

Re: Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

excellent points T&B, mr c1ue - but that will undoubtedly be drowned by the uproar the luddite brigade will make and use this piece against _anything_ that makes any kind of sense in the energy equation - note a decision on the new pipeline has been "delayed until 2012" (no need to hosedown the already sagging support amongst the base, by getting all-of-a-sudden decisive on anything in particular...)

where's mr steve here - i know he'll have some salient points to share - esp since he's hole-up in quakeafornia these daze, eh?

[srivatsan]

Re: Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

I am finding the below argument amusing... "how to make many small earthquakes .." when related to (a) common sense or (b) another thread that I saw about LNT issue (Linear No Threshold .. ).

One could associate earthquakes as something like air or weather. We can adversely affect them immediately but cannot "maintain/control" them. Its not like water to "dam" it either.

Oh! sooner we can even "make small bouts of volcano" ...

I mean, this is so amusing...

Excellent point, but there is another way to look at it.

Study might show us how to make many small earthquakes rather than one big one, thereby minimizing damage. Or perhaps show how the quakes can be scheduled, to reduce alarms and disruptions.

This field of study might show us how to cause quakes at major faults with no goal of getting out oil. Maybe we could relieve stresses on the San Andreas and avert the next major quake by scheduling many intentional small ones.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

I am finding the below argument amusing... "how to make many small earthquakes .." when related to (a) common sense or (b) another thread that I saw about LNT issue (Linear No Threshold .. ).

One could associate earthquakes as something like air or weather. We can adversely affect them immediately but cannot "maintain/control" them. Its not like water to "dam" it either.

Oh! sooner we can even "make small bouts of volcano" ...

I mean, this is so amusing...

Well, the original post discusses a published paper by a qualified seismologist which raises the possibility that earthquakes in Oklahoma could be caused by hydraulic fracturing and discusses research to reduce adverse effects. Mr. Holland does not seem to have confused correlation with causality.

I'm a mechanical engineer, not a geologist or seismologist. I find it plausible that pumping millions of gallons of fluid into deep strata could affect these things. Stresses within geologic strata build until they overcome the resisting forces keeping them stationary, then they move suddenly past each other causing earthquakes.

I am guilty as charged of extrapolating the concepts linearly, perhaps to an absurd extent. I love tossing around science, pseudo-science, and pure conjecture on these threads, and simply couldn't resist.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Earthquakes in Oklahoma the result of fracking?

Well, the original post discusses a published paper by a qualified seismologist which raises the possibility that earthquakes in Oklahoma could be caused by hydraulic fracturing and discusses research to reduce adverse effects. Mr. Holland does not seen to have confused correlation with causality.

I'm a mechanical engineer, not a geologist or seismologist. I find it plausible that pumping millions of gallons of fluid into deep strata could affect these things. Stresses within geologic strata build until they overcome the resisting forces keeping them stationary, then they move suddenly past each other causing earthquakes.

I am guilty as charged of extrapolating the concepts linearly, perhaps to an absurd extent. I love tossing around science, pseudo-science, and pure conjecture on these threads, and simply couldn't resist.

seems reasonable to me.