China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

[touchring]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...-ceo-says.html

Most of the biggest solar-equipment makers may disappear in the next few years as plunging prices erode margins and drive the weakest out of business, according to Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL), the fifth-largest supplier of solar panels.

“This is the decade of mergers and acquisitions,” Jifan Gao, chief executive officer of Changzhou, China-based Trina, said in an interview. “From now until 2015 is the first phase, when about two-thirds of the players will be shaken out.”

Three U.S. solar companies including Solyndra LLC have gone bankrupt this year and more, led by First Solar Inc. (FSLR) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., slashed sales and margin forecasts, reflecting slower growth in demand and stiffer competition. SunPower Corp. (SPWRA) and Roth & Rau AG (R8R) of Germany agreed to takeovers.

Gao, who founded Trina in 1997, predicted that only about five companies may survive through 2020 in each of the three major manufacturing segments. He defined those as photovoltaic panels, ingots and wafers, and the raw material polysilicon.

“Globally, that would be stable and sustainable,” Gao said last week in Singapore, without naming survivors or his expectations for his own company.

[lektrode]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

i guess that just leaves us with the almost/kinda the same question as when is a good time to buy gold...
as in: Now, when everybody wants it - or wait until the 'shakeout' happens, just before the monopoly interests take command of the market and cause the price to launch, due to a clamp on supply?

or have some of us missed the point/boat entirely, at this time?

[jiimbergin]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

i guess that just leaves us with the almost/kinda the same question as when is a good time to buy gold...
as in: Now, when everybody wants it - or wait until the 'shakeout' happens, just before the monopoly interests take command of the market and cause the price to launch, due to a clamp on supply?

or have some of us missed the point/boat entirely, at this time?

I hope most of us have our gold already

[lektrode]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

I hope most of us have our gold already

sadly, no - some of us having been too distracted by the day to day grind of trying to run our small/failing biz's
in my case anyway, it's always been: 'have no money, plenty time, or 'have plenty money, no time'
that and not having all that much in the way of 'net-saved-discretionary-funds' vs 'working capital' and needing to re-position out of a sinking market sector in a down economy/locale vs top-of-the-chart prices in said asset -
along with awaiting the predicted downstroke - which would appear to have come and gone this past july, when i was in 'money/no-time' mode...

sigh... does this stuff _ever_ get 'easy' to figger out? (only somewhat of a rhetorical question)

[leegs]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

On the subject of solar panels, I have done some pondering on the question of when to buy, based on the presumption that prices for panels are coming down. However when one starts to look at the entire cost of the system - chargers, inverters, batteries, heavy duty wiring and switching, etc. - decrease in price of the panels doesn't seem to be a huge deal, especially if the cost of that other stuff is going up. From my admittedly incomplete analysis for quite small ( <500 watt) non-grid tied system, cost of the panels seemed to be roughly one-third of the total cost of the system.
There is an electronic aspect of some of the other components where one might expect future cost decreases, but a lot of it is just 'hardware' and will not be getting cheaper IMO.

[jiimbergin]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

sadly, no - some of us having been too distracted by the day to day grind of trying to run our small/failing biz's
in my case anyway, it's always been: 'have no money, plenty time, or 'have plenty money, no time'
that and not having all that much in the way of 'net-saved-discretionary-funds' vs 'working capital' and needing to re-position out of a sinking market sector in a down economy/locale vs top-of-the-chart prices in said asset -
along with awaiting the predicted downstroke - which would appear to have come and gone this past july, when i was in 'money/no-time' mode...

sigh... does this stuff _ever_ get 'easy' to figger out? (only somewhat of a rhetorical question)

yes, I am sure trying to keep a small business going in this climate can make it really difficult. Fortunately I retired a long time ago, and although very busy, I have both more time and resources than you seem to. I am sorry and pray that things work out better for you.

[lektrode]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

On the subject of solar panels, I have done some pondering on the question of when to buy, based on the presumption that prices for panels are coming down. However when one starts to look at the entire cost of the system - chargers, inverters, batteries, heavy duty wiring and switching, etc. - decrease in price of the panels doesn't seem to be a huge deal, especially if the cost of that other stuff is going up. From my admittedly incomplete analysis for quite small ( <500 watt) non-grid tied system, cost of the panels seemed to be roughly one-third of the total cost of the system.
There is an electronic aspect of some of the other components where one might expect future cost decreases, but a lot of it is just 'hardware' and will not be getting cheaper IMO.

thats a very good point - my obs has been that as the price of the silicon (panels) has come down - with an increase in availability of subsidies (kinda inversely same as college loans/grants have done for prices in the .edu sector) - that the price of the rest of it, particularly the copper and lead (batts) has gone up (never mind the labor/install+sales.commisions) costs - almost to the point of negating the decrease of the silicon?

but still... the current/expected increases in KWH prices would suggest that its still a good bet, if one has the money, as it surely beats the return on cash that can be had on 'safe' investments? other than the yellow stuff, the past 10years anyway.

of course for off-grid apps or when one wants to make sure ones lights stay ON, no matter whats going on outside - would offer that its an even better bet and would think that anybody who might still be without power back east would tend to agree.

that said - mr c1ue has offered some persuasive arguments on waiting:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...aic-*could*-be

[lektrode]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

thanks jb - i often wonder how things might've been different had eye run across the itulip several years back...

[touchring]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

Another Rare earth element.?

[lektrode]

Re: China Solar CEO: Most Solar Makers Will Disappear by 2015

Another Rare earth element.?

i guess so... (dunno yet whether yer just yankin-me here, but i'm always good for 'the game' - as it seems to be played - and willing to stick my neck out, just for the oppty to interact with those smarter than i am - the feedback alone is worth the price of admission, esp when i get some - even if sometimes i'm on the wrong side of the apparent consensus here - it would appear that, as EJ puts it - we're all on the same team, even if we sometimes disagree on precisely 'how we got here' - meaning the present sitch in The US - and i certainly dont mean to offend anybody personally - as i'm here to learn, not argue.. even if it does get me goin to the point i 'erupt' - its always done with a smile on my face, believe it or not... more/better entertainment than any other 'media outlet' i've ever...)

and... in all seriousness - it's quite interesting what happened today, in the PM's - eh?
along with watchin the 'dials' over at the turd's place (never mind the comments) - is it really 'linear' or syncronized/computer trading when we see the dollar and gold go in opp directions, nearly daily? seems like it.... sigh...so much to learn, so little time....

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