Gaming COIN

[c1ue]

Re: Gaming COIN

There ARE some excellent examples of effective counter insurgency campaigns in history(as well as some bad ones)......including some that don't include the popular misconception that it's all about just killing and slaughtering.

Really? Perhaps you can list a few of these.

The only successful counterinsurgency campaigns in recent history I am aware of were: The Malayan insurgency and Chechnya.

The Malayan insurgency was by a tiny minority of ethnic Chinese surrounded by a sea of Malays who hated their guts. It hardly qualifies as a 'grass roots' insurgency in that regard.

Chechnya, on the other hand, was a more classic insurgency, and it was resolved in a classic fashion: pretty much every opposing Chechnyan male is now dead at a cost of between 15000 and 40000 Russian troops. Fortunately the entire Chechnyan population was only about 1 million.

There are 14 million each Pashtun and Tajik in Afghanistan.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Gaming COIN

Really? Perhaps you can list a few of these.

The only successful counterinsurgency campaigns in recent history I am aware of were: The Malayan insurgency and Chechnya.

The Malayan insurgency was by a tiny minority of ethnic Chinese surrounded by a sea of Malays who hated their guts. It hardly qualifies as a 'grass roots' insurgency in that regard.

Chechnya, on the other hand, was a more classic insurgency, and it was resolved in a classic fashion: pretty much every opposing Chechnyan male is now dead at a cost of between 15000 and 40000 Russian troops. Fortunately the entire Chechnyan population was only about 1 million.

There are 14 million each Pashtun and Tajik in Afghanistan.

Malaya is an excellent example.....and it was a more than just a tiny minority of Chinese.

The insurgency was backed by Indonesia and decisively broken.

Same for Indonesia's efforts further east in Borneo, decisively disrupted.

Same for Indonesia's efforts in Timor Leste, decisively disrupted.

One of the most effective, little known, and very successful counter insurgency campaigns would be the Dhofar Rebellion in Oman...lasting from approx 1962-76...decisively broken.

The Kenyan Mau Mau Rebellion is another example, from which a lot of counter insurgecy doctrine was developed, tested, and theorized including some well regarded open source books such as:

Gangs and Counter-gangs

Low Intensity Operations

Another little known COIN/civil war/SASO(Stability and Support Operations) campaign was run by a private outfit called Executive Outcomes who in less than a year decisively broke the back of the civil war/insurgency and restored legitimacy to the Sierra Leone government(largely at the behest of foreign investment interests), but they got the job done faster than FEDEX....until they got the boot and it returned to chaos.

The there's Central and South America......Shining Path was decisively annihilated in the 90's, same with Guatamalan and Salvadoran insurgencies...all with greater or lesser degrees of carnage.

Columbia has been battling a narco-insurgency for decades and appears to be "winning" at least compared to 90's levels of violence.

Che Guavara's pathetic efforts at insurgency were also decisively dealt with.

The Philippines and their Moro Islamic Liberation Front(MILF) could probably be best described as "effectively contained or ring fenced" probably due to a lack of effective and fair governance....although there have been some troubling and recent military losses for the Philippine forces in recent weeks...it could be described as a potential success story.

And let's not forget Sri Lanka and the LTTE Tamil Tigers.......an absolutely horrific human rights mini-holocaust...but the SL government has unquestionably and decisively destroyed the LTTE in the last 24 months...after a multi-decade long civil war/insurgency...with considerable support from China.

So there's been lots of successes.....depends on how you measure success and at what cost....but a good number certainly qualify as COIN successes, for some the jury is still out, and some have ultimately been failures.

And I wouldn't count the Chechens out.....their continued involvement in transnational organized crime is as potentially threatening moving forward as what is now occurring in Mexico's narco-insurgency-civil war.

[c1ue]

Re: Gaming COIN

Malaya is an excellent example.....and it was a more than just a tiny minority of Chinese.

The insurgency was backed by Indonesia and decisively broken.

Same for Indonesia's efforts further east in Borneo, decisively disrupted.

Same for Indonesia's efforts in Timor Leste, decisively disrupted.

Indonesia is an outside power, and is in no way ethnically or culturally congruent with Malaysia. Saying that Indonesia backed the ethnic Chinese insurgency in Malaysia is just repeating what I already noted: a not-popular movement by a clearly recognizable minority.

The Mau Mau campaign is very much in the Chechnya model: scorched earth. The recent release of British government papers from the last years of British Kenya describes this in all too graphic terms. Furthermore the population of Kenya was only 6.5 million in 1950 - compared to the UK's 1950 population of 50 million.

The Tamil Tiger situation - equally a recognizable minority. Perhaps you don't know this, but the reason the Tamils are in Sri Lanka is because the British thought they'd make a more controllable worker populace than the native Sinhalese. The Tamils were imported originally from the Southern provinces of India.

The Dhofar campaign - I'll have to read up on that, but at first glance it seems not credible to have a rebellion in an area already extremely low population. Seems more like the Bahrain/Saudi tank/Shi'a situation than anything else.

And for each of these examples, there are far larger counter examples:

Mao in China, Giap in Vietnam, The Afghans vs. any number of previous invaders, etc etc.

But of course, time will tell. Ultimately whatever is said in whatever circles, the proof is in the pudding.

And so far, no dessert.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Gaming COIN

Indonesia is an outside power, and is in no way ethnically or culturally congruent with Malaysia. Saying that Indonesia backed the ethnic Chinese insurgency in Malaysia is just repeating what I already noted: a not-popular movement by a clearly recognizable minority.

The Mau Mau campaign is very much in the Chechnya model: scorched earth. The recent release of British government papers from the last years of British Kenya describes this in all too graphic terms. Furthermore the population of Kenya was only 6.5 million in 1950 - compared to the UK's 1950 population of 50 million.

The Tamil Tiger situation - equally a recognizable minority. Perhaps you don't know this, but the reason the Tamils are in Sri Lanka is because the British thought they'd make a more controllable worker populace than the native Sinhalese. The Tamils were imported originally from the Southern provinces of India.

The Dhofar campaign - I'll have to read up on that, but at first glance it seems not credible to have a rebellion in an area already extremely low population. Seems more like the Bahrain/Saudi tank/Shi'a situation than anything else.

And for each of these examples, there are far larger counter examples:

Mao in China, Giap in Vietnam, The Afghans vs. any number of previous invaders, etc etc.

But of course, time will tell. Ultimately whatever is said in whatever circles, the proof is in the pudding.

And so far, no dessert.

You asked about successful COIN conflicts....I provided a number of them.

You talk about Indonesia as an outside power and a lack of ethnic/cultural congruence....but neglect to mention Pakistan as an outside power in the context of Afghanistan and the clear divides between Pashtuns and Punjabis/everyone else.

We could go on all day and night back and forth and I have zero interest in doing so as it will clearly get us nowhere.

This is primarily because many may have some common and parallel characteristics, no two insurgencies are identical/alike.

And while there have been a number of common, cookie cutter responses at times....ultimately a different dialnosis/treatment plan has been required for each insurgency "patient" that has survived the treatment.

I would encourage you to visit Small Wars Journal Forum as well as have a read of David Kilcullen's related material...they have both broadened and sharpened my perspective on conflict in the same way as iTulip has broadened and sharpened my perspective on big picture finance and economics.

[Shakespear]

Re: Gaming COIN

It is obvious that COIN is just another jingle in the "toolbox" of war, which after 10 years of this waisted effort of chasing shadows is not nearing an end. The question than begs to be asked, "What is it all about?"

This site left me feeling sick
http://www.invisiblechildren.com/our-story
Has the feel of Scientology but on high BS Tech Media.

[c1ue]

Re: Gaming COIN

I would encourage you to visit Small Wars Journal Forum as well as have a read of David Kilcullen's related material...they have both broadened and sharpened my perspective on conflict in the same way as iTulip has broadened and sharpened my perspective on big picture finance and economics.

I'd be more open minded about this if I had not read so much of historical examples of COIN theories which have failed, ranging from the British experiences in various parts of the Commonwealth as well as the original unification of the Isles, to Spanish techniques in Central and South America as well as the Reconquista, to Native American relations in North America, to various African and North African regimes.

The only method that has consistently worked is depopulation.

But as I said, we can see every year just how well these concepts are working.

Coalition Military Fatalities By Year

Year	US	UK	Other	Total
2001	12	0	0	12
2002	49	3	18	70
2003	48	0	10	58
2004	52	1	7	60
2005	99	1	31	131
2006	98	39	54	191
2007	117	42	73	232
2008	155	51	89	295
2009	317	108	96	521
2010	499	103	109	711
2011	388	37	96	521
Total	1834	385	583	2802

[Shakespear]

Re: Gaming COIN

The only method that has consistently worked is depopulation.

A very logical choice. No population no problem. I suspect that the current favorite to reach this objective in a quiet way is to eliminate infrastructure as was done in Iraq. Alternate mode is using Uranium tipped shells who's remains slowly do their job in many strange ways. In the past it was blankets with bacteria, and I suspect that this one may still be on the table.

The results in the table suggest that ,
1) the enemy is learning
2) more troops on the ground hence more chance for being killed
3) fatigue setting in hence loss of concentration may be at work

What a waist.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Gaming COIN

It is obvious that COIN is just another jingle in the "toolbox" of war, which after 10 years of this waisted effort of chasing shadows is not nearing an end. The question than begs to be asked, "What is it all about?"

This site left me feeling sick
http://www.invisiblechildren.com/our-story
Has the feel of Scientology but on high BS Tech Media.

I share your distaste for conflict and suffering.....enough to volunteer and deploy into the tail end of a COIN but largely SASO environment.

I"m not stating it in an effort to produce some sort of SME trump card....I'll be the first to admit that I'm a basic practitioner, NOT an SME.

But I can see, and did see, with my own two eyes how it worked and how it helped in a very real and tangible way. Did this external military intervention "fix" everything? Of course not......but it certainly helped produce an environment that allowed for positive development.

Where my concern lies on this forum is a gut feeling that success/understanding in one area(finance/economics)....leads to a potentially inaccurate perception of success/understanding in another.

Hence my repeated suggestion for folks with an interest in this particular thread topic to visit Small Wars Journal where a substantial number of SMEs on this particular topic share analysis/opinion much like the iTulip community.

I'm not trying to pick on you....far from it...I enjoy reading your posts....but I did notice your now edited post about depleted uranium being compared to anthrax blankets.

I'm glad you edited that....as I think that exemplifies the risk of failure in analysis when trying to merge genuine SME in finance/economics with other analysis where accuracy may be more perceived than real.

Just my 0.02c

EDIT: Whoops! confused your two posts Shakespear.....my bad....your second post mentioned a perceived connection between depleted uranium and anthrax blankets.

To imply/believe/openly state that the use of DU is a modern day and intentional equivalent of distributed anthrax blankets would be incorrect in my opinion. And I think it exemplifies analytical weakness in the iTulip community in this area.

I am concerned there might be a bit of hubris showing up in this area(not you specifically, but the community at large).

I am neither defending, nor attacking the position of any government in the last 10 years with regards to Iraq and Afghanistan.

But I challenge the iTulip community to "up their game" in this realm......as EJ has stated conflict is quite possibly on the horizon.

I"m of the belief that the defense/military/security analysis folks have much to learn about finance/economic analysis...and vice versa...especially as we see the two distinct areas begin to merge more directly.

Again.....just my 0.02c

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Gaming COIN

I'd be more open minded about this if I had not read so much of historical examples of COIN theories which have failed, ranging from the British experiences in various parts of the Commonwealth as well as the original unification of the Isles, to Spanish techniques in Central and South America as well as the Reconquista, to Native American relations in North America, to various African and North African regimes.

The only method that has consistently worked is depopulation.

But as I said, we can see every year just how well these concepts are working.

Coalition Military Fatalities By Year

Year	US	UK	Other	Total
2001	12	0	0	12
2002	49	3	18	70
2003	48	0	10	58
2004	52	1	7	60
2005	99	1	31	131
2006	98	39	54	191
2007	117	42	73	232
2008	155	51	89	295
2009	317	108	96	521
2010	499	103	109	711
2011	388	37	96	521
Total	1834	385	583	2802

Just because you've read SOME, doesn't mean you should stop reading MORE.

I would disagree that depopulation is the only method that has consistently worked.

Destroying the Shining Path in Peru didn't require depopulation.

Destroying Central American insurgencies didn't require depopulation...although there certainly were a fair few atrocities at the very local level.

Columbia's narco-insurgency didn't require depopulation

Oman's insurgency didn't require depopulation.

Sri Lanka's could be argued either way.....but too hard and too soon to tell with China playing big brother to Sri Lanka and shielding it from associated genocide accusations for now.

One of the biggest lessons I learned, both in person, but mostly from long-time practitioners of COIN/SASO is that:

it's often only a small minority that ACTIVELY oppose the legitimacy of host nation government.

And it's often that only a small minority ACTIVELY support the legitimacy of host nation government.

The vast majority in the middle would prefer to just go about their lives with minimal interference and generally will not get involved either way unless events impact on the ability to water, feed, house, clothe, educate, and advance their families.

If faced with a substantial percentage actively or passively opposed to the legitimacy of the host nation government, the odds are quite possibly stacked against efforts to support that government.

And it comes down to government......or at a more granular level....local governance.

Sometimes firepower wins.......but more often than not it would appear local governance wins.

Taliban by James Fergusson covers this a bit.....yes the Taliban are naughty and far from perfect from the western perspective....but from an Afghani perspective they governed at the local level.....they eliminated bandits and hiway "tollbooths", they had internal affairs processes to deal with excessive force and disputes against the taliban themselves, they dispensed heavy handed justice according to their own belief system.....they provided security and stability....it might have sucked....but an apocalyptic wasteland with some sense of order was perceived to be better than their previous experience of apocalyptic wasteland in chaos.

And local governance(or that lack of it) is a considerable factor in insurgencies perceived to be extinguished....but could still be smoldering...such as the Philippines...even with a couple nasty recent contacts...it's not so much an insurgency requiring a military solution as it is a perpetual problem that requires a focus on good local governance and anti-corruption efforts.

It would be good to see the continuation of this thread or future threads like it automatically include a focus on measuring the effectiveness of local governance in the country in question.

Modeling/metrics for COIN/SASO operations should have a realtime dashboard, much like that NGO website for LRA related incidents, but focused on measuring the effectiveness of local governance......I think that's where you really win/lose.

[c1ue]

Re: Gaming COIN

I would disagree that depopulation is the only method that has consistently worked.

Destroying the Shining Path in Peru didn't require depopulation.

You keep mentioning these, but fail to mention that none of the examples quoted above were even tolerated by a majority of people.

While it isn't necessary that there be a large number of active supporters, this is not the same thing as having significant portions of the population actively against you.

Examples of peasants banding together against the Shining Path detracts mightily from the theory that that organization was anything but a power seeking faction.

As for Colombia, again you've chosen an example where there is not in any way significant support for FARC. Other than its theoretical Marxist underpinnings, in reality FARC acts no different than any bandit group in history.

The Oman insurgency - or the Dhofar rebellion as you've mentioned earlier - is another fine example of making a mountain out of a mole hill. Was even 0.5% of the population involved as rebels? Did the rebel force ever exceed 1000 men under arms? From what I can see, it seems mostly a single tribe trying to split off - and was duly squashed by ten times their number of foreign troops much in the Chechnyan model. Depopulation, in other words.

As for Sri Lanka, you still haven't responded as to the fact that the Tamils are a recent addition to that island; they were only brought in the 1850s to work the tea plantations there. And given that 2/3rds of the population is Sinhalese, you've still not responded as to why the Tamil rebellion can be considered a 'popular movement'. The situation is entirely similar to Malaysia.

So while certainly much thought, effort and money has been put into COIN - if at the end the facts are obscured by ideology, I see little chance for real advancement.

[Shakespear]

Re: Gaming COIN

Did this external military intervention "fix" everything? Of course not......but it certainly helped produce an environment that allowed for positive development.

lakedaemonian, for better or for worse we live in of World of Conflict. Hence war will not go away from the "tool box" of conflict. But as per Newton's Law, for every action there is a counter and opposite reaction, there is a force in the World to oppose war. I speak from that side cognizant that there is no hope in eliminating it. Even if it was it would imply eliminating the opposite, which I suppose would lead to a state of coma.

However I am curious where exactly do you think that this is true?

...helped produce an environment that allowed for positive development...

Where my concern lies on this forum is a gut feeling that success/understanding in one area(finance/economics)....leads to a potentially inaccurate perception of success/understanding in another.

Well this is a forum and all are invited thus all must be aware that all sort of information will be thrown at them.. At the same time though, those who do come have a chance to learn something from others who are more knowledgeable then they are. That has been my experience over the years.

To imply/believe/openly state that the use of DU is a modern day and intentional equivalent of distributed anthrax blankets would be incorrect in my opinion. And I think it exemplifies analytical weakness in the iTulip community in this area.

The debate regarding DU will go on and on and on ....
http://www.gulfwarvets.com/du.htm
I know this is completely off the topic, but observe how Fukushima is treated. It is a none topic in MSM, but the on the ground consequence are anything but that. Individual Japanese are forced to take the matters of their health into their own hands as the government has taken the subject "Into The Silence" (one of my favorite Depeche Mode tunes)

So what do you think for instance of landmines?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Gaming COIN

Alas I am stuck with just my tablet and poor mobile connectivity for most of the next week traveling for work....happy to respond once I've got a keyboard