Tweet
Can it be we are way past the obvious and even denial will not work any more?
The Backfire Effect
The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.
The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.
http://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/...ckfire-effect/
Yergin addresses the Iranian threat as well as the debate over whether the world is approaching peak oil. [Ha, what the hell is that made up story about?]
Contrary to popular misconception, peak oil does not mean the world is ‘running out of oil’ but that “the oil that’s left is progressively expensive, difficult, risky, marginal and fraught with secondary effects,” as Chris Nelder and Gregor Macdonald write on Harvard Business Review’s web site — a post written in response to Yergin’s recent WSJ op-ed There Will Be Oil. “We certainly are moving past the era of cheap oil,” Yergin concedes. “[But] we do have major new supplies opening up,” including offshore Brazil, and the U.S. and Canadian oil sands as examples. “None of them can be considered ‘cheap oil’,” he continues. “That’s partly why we see higher floor under the price” of oil.
Whereas peak oil devotees consider Yergin wildly optimistic, the author and chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates calls himself “realistically confident.” Citing two-and-half centuries of innovation in energy development, “the one thing we’re not going to run short of is ingenuity and creativity,” Yergin says. “I think that’s the basis of our energy future.”
In addition, Yergin is confident in the power of the “feedbacks” from higher energy prices: “Price itself is important piece of information,” he says. “When prices [are] zooming up, demand goes down, people find alternatives, technology gets stimulated, and you get greater efficiency. ”
http://peakoil.com/production/daniel...-of-cheap-oil/
Oh, I don't doubt there is a lot we could do in a short period. For a $1,000 investment in LEDs, high efficiency air conditioner, and high efficiency refrigerator, I have cut my electricity use in half. It will pay for itself in 2 years. Office computers dropped from 100 watts to 30 watts. Tokyo cut electricity use by 20% simply by turning off a lot of the nonsense stuff. On Oahu, more and more houses have heat reflecting cool roofs; in some places, more than 50% of houses got them within the last 5 years. Their air conditioning has dropped $2,000 per house per year in some locations. So many simple low-cost things can be done without any real burden or reduction in standard of living. In fact, with the cool roofs, the standard of living went way up. There may well be a lot of expensive oil coming. But what if it does not? What if it is much more expensive than we expect?
The Backfire Effect
The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.
The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.
http://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/...ckfire-effect/
Yergin addresses the Iranian threat as well as the debate over whether the world is approaching peak oil. [Ha, what the hell is that made up story about?]
Contrary to popular misconception, peak oil does not mean the world is ‘running out of oil’ but that “the oil that’s left is progressively expensive, difficult, risky, marginal and fraught with secondary effects,” as Chris Nelder and Gregor Macdonald write on Harvard Business Review’s web site — a post written in response to Yergin’s recent WSJ op-ed There Will Be Oil. “We certainly are moving past the era of cheap oil,” Yergin concedes. “[But] we do have major new supplies opening up,” including offshore Brazil, and the U.S. and Canadian oil sands as examples. “None of them can be considered ‘cheap oil’,” he continues. “That’s partly why we see higher floor under the price” of oil.
Whereas peak oil devotees consider Yergin wildly optimistic, the author and chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates calls himself “realistically confident.” Citing two-and-half centuries of innovation in energy development, “the one thing we’re not going to run short of is ingenuity and creativity,” Yergin says. “I think that’s the basis of our energy future.”
In addition, Yergin is confident in the power of the “feedbacks” from higher energy prices: “Price itself is important piece of information,” he says. “When prices [are] zooming up, demand goes down, people find alternatives, technology gets stimulated, and you get greater efficiency. ”
http://peakoil.com/production/daniel...-of-cheap-oil/
Oh, I don't doubt there is a lot we could do in a short period. For a $1,000 investment in LEDs, high efficiency air conditioner, and high efficiency refrigerator, I have cut my electricity use in half. It will pay for itself in 2 years. Office computers dropped from 100 watts to 30 watts. Tokyo cut electricity use by 20% simply by turning off a lot of the nonsense stuff. On Oahu, more and more houses have heat reflecting cool roofs; in some places, more than 50% of houses got them within the last 5 years. Their air conditioning has dropped $2,000 per house per year in some locations. So many simple low-cost things can be done without any real burden or reduction in standard of living. In fact, with the cool roofs, the standard of living went way up. There may well be a lot of expensive oil coming. But what if it does not? What if it is much more expensive than we expect?
Comment