Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

[c1ue]

From a post I had put up in 2009:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...port-from-1999

Originally Posted by FRED
The most obvious source should be so fresh in everyone's minds it's surprising that we have to keep bring it up. We made this handy diagram to remind everyone.

EJ, I guess they're not driving?

The price for a gallon of 87 octane around here has gone up over the past seven weeks from around $1.95 to around $2.35.

It is again rising as quickly as it did in the Spring of '07 and '08.

Ah for the days when gasoline had a mere 1 or 2 handle...

[dcarrigg]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

From a post I had put up in 2009:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...port-from-1999

Ah for the days when gasoline had a mere 1 or 2 handle...

It seems to me if oil stays about where it is we should see the high $2 amounts for gas soon...

[lektrode]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

one would think so, eh?
cept it looks like they shipping more out of the country, just as OUR supply/demand picture is changing for OUR benefit, what happens?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...e-freight.html
Record U.S. Gasoline Cargoes Seen Driving 17% Tanker-Rate Advance: Freight


Record U.S. exports of gasoline and other refined oil products are poised to eliminate a glut of ships hauling the fuels next year, driving freight rates to a three-year high.
Shipments in the first nine months were 24 percent higher than a year earlier, led by cargoes to Latin America, Energy Department data show. Costs to hire medium-range tankers, holding enough gasoline to fill about 800,000 cars, will gain 17 percent to $14,000 a day next year, according to the median of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
U.S. nine-month crude-oil output rose 1.7 percent, the highest for the period since 2003. Gasoline demand fell 3.7 percent in July to the lowest for the month in 11 years. At a time when ships hauling crude and coal are forecast to lose money for at least another two years, product tankers may break even as early as 2012. Billionaire Wilbur Ross completed his first shipping investment last month, joining a group of investors buying a fleet of 30 fuel carriers.
“We’ve seen a fundamental shift in the trading of oil products to and from the U.S. over the past three to four years,” said Thomas Zwick, an Oslo-based analyst at Lorentzen & Stemoco A/S, a shipping consultant. “That’s been a huge help to ship owners. It’s given small-tanker markets moderate gains rather than catastrophic losses since the financial crisis.”
Eight Times Bigger

Rates for medium-range tankers averaged $10,617 a day this year, 9 percent more than in 2010, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange, which publishes assessments for more than 50 maritime routes. Rents will average $12,000 this year, the Bloomberg survey showed.
Supertankers, which are as much as eight times bigger, earned a daily average of $689 this year. Capesizes, carrying coal and iron ore, averaged $11,593 a day, down 65 percent from last year, bourse data show.
The surge in U.S. exports is also boosting earnings on the Europe-U.S. route, the industry’s benchmark. More vessels that used to sail back across the Atlantic empty after delivering cargoes to the U.S. are now getting consignments on the return leg and to Latin America, said Nikolaj Kamedula, an analyst at SEB Enskilda in Copenhagen. Rates on the route rose fourfold in two weeks to $11,496, Baltic Exchange data show.
Gulf Coast Exports

Exports from the Gulf Coast are driving the expansion in U.S. cargoes. Refineries in the Midwest sent 22 percent more gasoline and other refined products to the Gulf Coast this year than in 2010, Energy Department data show. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude traded yesterday at a 23 percent discount to Brent, the grade used by refineries in Europe. A U.S. refinery now makes $27.44 from refining a barrel of crude into gasoline, compared with $4.44 in Europe, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
U.S. gasoline demand fell 1 percent to 8.96 million barrels a day in July, the lowest for the month since 2000, Energy Department data show. Regular-grade gasoline averaged $3.417 a gallon at gas stations as of Oct. 2, from as much as $3.985 on May 4, data from the American Automobile Association show.
Refined-product shipments to Latin America from the U.S. and Europe jumped by about 50 percent from July to September, according to Tina Revsbech, head of tankers at Hellerup, Denmark-based Torm A/S, which operates about 140 tankers. The surge is increasing voyage lengths and reducing the number of vessels competing for cargoes.
Drilling Wells

Gains in charter rates for medium-range tankers, each about 179 meters (590 feet) long, may be curbed by slowing economic growth. The International Monetary Fund cut its world growth forecasts to 4 percent for this year and next on Sept. 20, compared with earlier respective estimates of 4.3 percent and 4.5 percent. About $12 trillion was wiped off the value of equities since May on mounting concern economies will tip back into recession.
In 2008, during the worst global recession since World War II, gasoline demand slipped 0.6 percent, the first retreat in more than a quarter century, according to London-based BP Plc. Consumption of all refined products fell in 2008 and 2009, curbing demand for tankers.
U.S. oil output may also slow as prices drop. Crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange slumped 34 percent from a 2 1/2-year high of $114.83 a barrel in May. There were 2,922 wells being drilled for exploration or development in August, 74 percent more than a year earlier and the most since 1986, Energy Department data show.
Order Book

The average of $14,000 a day for medium-range ships predicted for next year in the Bloomberg survey would still leave some tankers close to break even. The vessels need about $13,800 a day to cover operating and financing costs, according to accountant Moore Stephens International Ltd. and ICAP Shipping International Ltd. Breakeven rates vary by company and fleet depending on vessel ages and purchase terms.
Shares of Torm plunged 82 percent in Copenhagen trading this year, heading for the worst annual performance in 16 years. It will report a loss of $147.2 million this year and won’t make money until at least 2014, the mean of as many as nine analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
All eight analysts covering Monaco-based Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) recommend buying the shares. Scorpio, which began trading in March 2010, will report a loss of $7.43 million this year and profit of $6.1 million in 2012, according to the mean of five estimates. The shares dropped 51 percent this year. Shipments from the U.S. are helping to offset the effects of a decline in European gasoline exports across the Atlantic, Scorpio president Robert Bugbee said by phone today.
Transport Costs

Rates for medium-range tankers are also rising because there is a smaller glut of vessels than in supertankers or capesizes. There are 1,500 of the vessels and the total order book at shipyards worldwide comes to 11 percent of the existing fleet, according to Fearnley Consultants A/S. That compares with 16 percent for supertankers and 30 percent for capesizes, according to Redhill, England-based IHS Fairplay.
Supertankers on the industry’s benchmark Saudi Arabia-to- Japan route will make no more than $13,818 a day through the end of 2013, according to annual forward freight agreements, traded by brokers and used to bet on future transport costs. Frontline Ltd., the biggest operator of the vessels, says it needs $29,800 to break even. Capesizes require about $20,000, and annual rates won’t exceed that level until at least 2017, according to FFA data from the Baltic Exchange.
Ross, the billionaire chairman of private-equity firm WL Ross & Co., and his co-investors spent $900 million on product tankers. Shipping may be “relatively close” to a bottom, he said in an August interview. Transactions across the “highly fragmented” industry will probably accelerate, Ross said at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York on Sept. 27.
“There’s such a negative sentiment about the shipping industry as a whole that the whole sector is getting flushed,” said Jonathan Chappell, an analyst at Evercore Partners Inc. in New York. “Product tanker owners should be an exception to that because the extra U.S. shipments to Latin America have helped the vessels to outperform.”

[Slimprofits]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago




The national average has risen from $3.38 to $3.70 from June 28th through today, August 16th.



Looking at the eight year chart, the longest available from gasbuddy.com, I think it's interesting to note within the overall rising trend, the price of gasoline still reflected the seasonal patterns of demand. Down in Winter, up in Summer. After June 2008, that changed and now it only moves with the NYMEX barrel price.

[flintlock]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

I'm afraid the days of sub $3 gas are gone for good. But some people still want to believe high gas prices are just a temporary thing. Fuel efficiency in new vehicles has improved dramatically. If people would lose the big SUVs and quit using 3 ton pickups to commute to desk jobs the impact won't be so bad. I picked up my twins from High School track practice yesterday. Half the parking lot was big 4x4 pickups and Jeeps. They love big Pickups here in GA!

[BadJuju]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

It is insane, flintlock. That's all you see in America these days. I remember back in the 90s and early '00s, SUVs were fairly uncommon. And now more than half of the cars I see on the road are SUVs. Oh, well! Let the fools pay through their teeth for being so stupid.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

It is insane, flintlock. That's all you see in America these days. I remember back in the 90s and early '00s, SUVs were fairly uncommon. And now more than half of the cars I see on the road are SUVs. Oh, well! Let the fools pay through their teeth for being so stupid.

My neighbors (a household of two adults, one infant) that never drive anywhere except for short trips within suburbia, have not one, but two SUVs in the driveway. They financed a new one in 2011 for the wife, for her half mile commute to work. The last time we spoke, they were complaining about not having enough money to replace the shitty window air conditioning unit in use on the first floor of their house. Folks, this is the voting public.

[BadJuju]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

My neighbors (a household of two adults, one infant) that never drive anywhere except for short trips within suburbia, have not one, but two SUVs in the driveway. They financed a new one in 2011 for the wife, for her half mile commute to work. The last time we spoke, they were complaining about not having enough money to replace the shitty window air conditioning unit in use on the first floor of their house. Folks, this is the voting public.

My mom and dad are constantly complaining about not having any money. They always say, "I don't make enough money." And then I see my mom spend 60% of her money on food and clothes. My dad, on the other hand, buys all kinds of useless junk, sells it for a 90% loss, and then buys new junk just like the old junk. He just bought a used car for $20,000 when he hadn't even paid off the $26,000 on the last car he bought a scant few years ago.

I do not understand it. How can you be that oblivious to your own spending habits?

I've made some bad choices in my time. I've spent way too much money on travel and hookers, but I've kept sight of my finances enough to not be in a situation where I am constantly worried about money.

[don]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

priceless . . .

[Bundi]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

Not to worry, our man Ben in D.C. anticipated all this back in 97.

http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9382/RR97-25.PDF

Conclusion

"...Substantively, our results suggest that an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy..."

[flintlock]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

I've made some bad choices in my time. I've spent way too much money on travel and hookers, but I've kept sight of my finances enough to not be in a situation where I am constantly worried about money.

Well if you are going to blow it, you might as well have a good time!

I say let people drive whatever they want, if they can pay, just dont ask me to pay higher taxes elsewhere so they can keep gas prices artificially low. Tax the fuel and let people decide how badly they "need" that beast. I drive a pickup for work, 12 mpg avg. but then I have 2000lbs of gear to haul around. When gas prices hit $4 a few years ago I simply raised prices a little. Its not like my competition could switch to electric cars. Those who can switch will. Swapped my wife's SUV for a Sonata that more than doubles the mpg. Took it to orlando with 5 people, luggage, and all our xmas gifts. Avg 35 mpg. Now why did we buy that SUV again????

[lektrode]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

looks like we bottomed on gas price out here a week or so ago: just over 4bux in HNL, with the spread tween there and the outer isles flattening quite bit - apparently the opening of the costco gas station on maui has caused the distributors to lower their margins, so instead of seeing upwards of a 10% differential, now its only a few cents

also interesting to note that the diff tween here and the mainland as narrowed quite a bit as well - at one time there was upwards of a 50% diff, now its typically 10% or less (esp tween here and the west coast, just pennies now, with parity a lot of times with the SFO area)

[flintlock]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

Who cares, you're in Hawaii! Just ride the waves!

[BadJuju]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

Who cares, you're in Hawaii! Just ride the waves!

Yeah, don't you guys all surf to work anyway?! :P

[GRG55]

Re: Blast from the Past, from another Blast from the Past: gasoline prices just 2 years ago

Yeah, don't you guys all surf to work anyway?! :P

Work?

And all this time I thought they just surfed...