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Germany decares WAR !

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  • #16
    Re: Germany decares WAR !

    I would think the best course for the Fed to follow would be to re-value the dollar upward by creating a very slow de-flationary under-tow in the economy. So the way the Fed would do this--- and it may well be doing this now--- is to let mining and manufacturing be re-built in the U.S. ( and in Canada with a similar and co-ordinated de-flationary policy administered by the Bank of Canada ).

    Just noting to-day that Ford Motor Company is hiring 7,000 workers to build cars. The tar sands are booming in Alberta and with a pipeline now being constructed for exporting upgraded oil from Alberta and light oil fro southern Saskatchewan to the Gulf Coast in the southern U.S. Also, this pipeline will go through western North Dakota where shale is being fracked and drilling has begun in earnest. This north-south pipeline will provide for the export of North Dakota oil to the Gulf Coast and then to world markets.

    Fracking may unlock vast natural gas deposits in shale in the eastern U.S. This might provide for an energy boom in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

    There is a HUGE deposit of light oil offshore of southern California, all but untapped. The light oil is near the surface of the sea floor, and oil has been seeping up from the deposit and floating onto the beaches of southern Calif. This natural process has been going on for decades.

    Then there is the BP discovery of oil deep under the floor of the Gulf of Mexico, in deep water off of New Orleans. The oil is under pressure and just waiting to be tapped.

    Then Mexico is booming. Its entire economy is in a renaissance. So it would appear that with a controlled and slow de-flation, the economy everywhere could switch from the finance, insurance, and real estate nonsense and back to real, tangible, and exportable production, i.e through a renaissance in mining and manufacturing.

    There is oil and gas under the North Sea in Europe, much of it that could be developed by fracking shale and side-a-ways drilling. The eco-frauds would not want you to know, but Stat Oil Co. has just discovered a major oil find under the North Sea, and it has drilled its first successful oil well. There is also a huge natural gas reservoir under the British Isles. This can be unlocked by fracking shale.

    The bottom-line is that with a controlled and co-ordinated de-flation policy by central banks, the economy of the Western World could be re-constructed and shifted away from a reliance on services, finance, insurance, real estate, government and military adventures. Then, the Great Recession would end, and the price of gold would likely decline.

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    • #17
      Re: Germany decares WAR !

      I cannot confirm or deny any of your claims on where there may or may not be oil/gas to be found - I simply don't have the background/expertise.

      What I can tell you with 100% certainty is that in a deflation, the price of everything else goes down relative to gold, NOT relative to fiat currency. That's what is deflated, & that's what most people don't get.

      Nothing ever gets deflated against a debt-backed fiat currency. Ever. It's never happened. The reason is that if you have a fiat currency of an economy that is allowed to go into deflation, controlled or otherwise, the value of the debt backing the currency begins to erode, leading to inflation of real assets in the price of that currency.

      The deflation of the Great Depression, in dollar terms? Everyone seems to forget the US dollar was backed by gold. The deflation of this depression? In gold terms, the price of EVERYTHING has fallen.

      So you are right that we will get deflation - if you define it in gold. In US dollar terms? Never. The system will collapse. Think about it - we had a 6% GDP decline in 2008 & the system was literally days from collapse.

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      • #18
        Re: Germany decares WAR !

        Increase the tangible GDP without increasing the money supply, and the price of everything would fall, including the price of gold.

        Produce more, export more, doooooooooooooo things, and the price of gold will fall.

        Dooooooooooooo, like in doing the filtration and pumping of sea-water upward to cities like Los Angeles and San Diego. Pump water throughout arid regions, to grow more crops. Pump water to factories such as food-processing plants.

        Develop oil deposits. Develop nat-gas deposits. Build hydro-electric dams. Build atomic power plants. Export tangible goods. Bring down to cost of living. DE-flate the economy.

        We got into this Great Recession by letting these pot-heads and eco-frauds, preservationist frauds and sustainability-frauds kill everything--- every bit of initiative to do anything..... Now it is time to push-back.

        We de-flate the economy by production. Everything can be done, if we want to do it. There is no shortage of anything except the initiative to do things. China has shown the entire world what can be done with the initiative to do things, and do not forget that China was one country with one billion poor people, not too many years ago.

        The mind-set of doing nothing began with Desmond's book, The Destruction of California, published in the late 1960s. In that stupid book, Desmond proposes the way to kill growth is to stop planning for people and to stop accommodating growth. So, Desmond proposed obstructing everything--- as a way to go back to some silly (and downright elitist) unspoiled and undeveloped California. That book and Rachel Carlson's book, The Silent Spring, published in the 1960s as well have done more to destroy our way of life and create this Great Recession than anything.

        LEAN FORWARD
        Last edited by Starving Steve; September 29, 2011, 04:00 PM.

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        • #19
          Re: Germany decares WAR !

          http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-too-late.html

          Let us see what the Germans do in Part 2.

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          • #20
            Re: Germany decares WAR !

            Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
            ...Then Mexico is booming. Its entire economy is in a renaissance. So it would appear that with a controlled and slow de-flation, the economy everywhere could switch from the finance, insurance, and real estate nonsense and back to real, tangible, and exportable production, i.e through a renaissance in mining and manufacturing...
            The way you phrase this implies to me "We can turn into a commodity exporter to Mexican Economy" Maybe I'm wrong and what you meant is that we could expect to be better integrated economies (i.e. All Nafta area an open market for commodities and raw materials, and a Nafta wide provider - end manufacturer development as in the EU, only better since every country keeps it's own currency and gold backing).

            SS you seem to be a more optimistic publicist of my country than myself, but given that we Mexicans tend to be a bit pessimist about ourselves that may be expected. We do have a lot of work ahead to really rise up to our own expectations, and we have to overcome a lot of drawbacks. Time and effort will tell if we were going the right direction.
            sigpic
            Attention: Electronics Engineer Learning Economics.

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            • #21
              Re: Germany decares WAR !

              Originally posted by coolhand View Post
              Sure - but that supports what i'm saying in a way. The American MMF pulled USD's out of Euro debt markets. At that point, the European financial was faced with collapse. Do you think the ECB bankers & politicians would just allow this occur? Never, it would be politically unacceptable.

              So then if you believe that premise, there are two (maybe more) but definitely two choices to which they are relatively indifferent:

              1. Either the US Fed prints every last dollar needed to keep the Euro system solvent; or

              2. The ECB revalues their gold high enough to bail out the system.

              IF the US Fed refuses to do #1, forcing the ECB to choose #2, it will effectively end the USD's reign as the reserve currency of the world, both from the standpoint of the Euro being more valuable, & from the standpoint of the Fed admitting it would no longer provide dollar liquidity as needed...

              At that point, the estimated $6-7T in USD sitting overseas would come rushing back into the US, creating the Ka-poom inflation. Why would you hold things in dollars if you knew the Fed wouldn't help you in a pinch?

              Or alternatively, foreign countries would revalue their products higher in USD knowing they could not afford to get stuck with them, since the Fed would no longer be providing them...

              Either way, much higher import inflation in the US, most notably for oil, & bye-bye US economy...which will require the Fed to print a bunch of money.

              Seems to me t's just easier for the Fed to give the Europeans what they want...but it's definitely from a position of weakness, IMO

              Excellent analysis coolhand - new thinking.
              you are correct FED's hand is forced and are doing this from a weaker position, they have to bail out everyone or lose dollar seignorage.

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