did the silver train just stop at the station?

[lektrode]

did anybody else happen to note that silver apparently did a little 'fast krash' yest (mon26sep) in the wee hours EDT - eye noted by the comments on a certain commodity trading site that the audience there saw it too?

uhhhh.... fred?

[mesyn191]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Yea I saw that and hoped I hadn't missed the train. Its gone up to $32/oz since then. Really hard to judge what to do exactly. I'm still figuring a flight to safety from the EU for some cash will push up the dollar value and drive down or at least suppress the price of PM's for a while. Could definitely by wrong though...

[Adeptus]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

The 26% rise from the $26 level is due to EU rumours of coming up with a 2 Trillion (4x leveraged) bailout fund primarily provided by German taxpayers, which shortly after was found to be constitutionally illegal in Germany...but that latter bit of 'inconvinient truth' may not have yet hit the mainstream press.

The ENTIRE global stock markets (and silver) hang by a thread. Markets could go either way depending on whatever happens Thursday.
Bailout = markets up. No bailout = markets crash (again).

[shiny!]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Interesting Adeptus, thank you for that.

Here's something funny... I don't do any trading but there are a few traders I like to follow for their technical analysis. I frankly don't understand how it works, so when they make specific calls for important "turns", I write it on my calendar then watch to see if it pans out or not.

My observation for "turn dates" is that they are frequently correct for the date, but wrong on the direction of the turn. This is what happened yesterday. Over three months ago I wrote on my calendar that Sept 25th would be a low for the Gold:Silver ratio. It seems that yesterday, the 26th might have been a high, instead.

If this guy was right about the turn date, then silver will start to overtake gold and the ratio will fall. Please note that I'm not saying it will, just that a turn date indicates that it should. I'm not as disappointed that the turn date had a reverse result than what he predicted, as I'm impressed that he called that turn date months ago! How do they do that???

[lektrode]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Interesting Adeptus, thank you for that.
....not as disappointed that the turn date had a reverse result than what he predicted, as I'm impressed that he called that turn date months ago! How do they do that???

yes a +1 for the alchemist... we know _he's_ paying close attention

by the looks of the stuff that bart and the finster bat back n forth with each other, never mind EJ, all i can say is these people must have minds like a cray computer, eh?

bart/finster also called the turn in stocks we're seeing now a couple weeks ago? = truly impressive crystal ball gazing and IMO couldnt possibly be simply 'luck'

we're lucky to be here witnessing/learning from these Masters, eh ms shiny!

here's another very interesting piece of news:

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe..._breaking.html

European Central Banks Sell 1.1 Metric Tons Of Gold Under CBGA – WGC
27 September 2011, 10:42 a.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/
(Kitco News) - European central banks sold a gross 1.1 metric tons under the third Central Bank Gold Agreement, the lowest annual sales since the agreement began in September 1999, the World Gold Council said Tuesday.
The current agreement allows European central bank signatories to sell 400 tons of gold collectively per year. This is the third CBGA agreement, which is in its second year. Monday marked the end of the second year.
“European central banks’ appetite for gold sales has dissipated since the onset of the financial crisis. During periods of such intense economic and financial market turbulence gold adds much needed stability to a central bank’s reserves,” said Natalie Dempster, director of government affairs for the World Gold Council.
Last year there was a similar disinterest to sell, with European signatories selling just 7.1 tons of the 400 tons allowed.
Central banks in many countries, particularly in emerging markets, have been gold adding to their reserves over the past two years, Dempster said.
“As a whole, central banks are now large net buyers of gold having re-evaluated their reserve asset management policies and we expect them to remain so for the foreseeable future,” she said.
The CBGA started in 1999 and in the first five years, central banks were sellers of the full amount, set at 400 tons at the time. Between 2005-2009, a second CBGA was enacted and the ceiling limit was lifted to 500 tons, but signatories had undersold the limit. The limit was lowered back to 400 tons in the current agreement, which runs through September 2014.
For more information see the WGC website:
http://www.gold.org/government_affai...ld_agreements/

[aaron]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Silver was 42 and now is 32
Gold was 1900 and is now 1650

Silver decline = 25%
Gold Decline = 13%

Anyway, looking at it this way, i do not see any difference between silver and gold. Silver has always had a higher beta than gold.

Unless this dynamic changes (and it certainly did during the run up to 50), I will hold the rest of my silver. There is no bubble, unless gold is a bubble.

[shiny!]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Silver at $32, even at $25, seems expensive to me, since I remember when it was below $5. If you have both metals and patience, it's possible to increase your PMs without buying at these prices. Just trade some of one for the other whenever the ratios get extreme. Trade gold for silver when the GSR is high, trade silver for gold when the GSR is low. That way you can build your stacks without spending any money.

[mesyn191]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

IIRC EJ expected silver to get to ~$27/oz which was why I was hoping to buy under $30/oz. It did drop under $30/oz briefly but before I could buy. Compared to $5/oz that is still expensive but cheap compared to where it was not too long about (peak was ~$48/oz IIRC). If Adeptus is correct about how unstable things are short term than even at $32/oz it may be cheap. If you're willing to buy and hold for a while, maybe a year or 2, you may be able to still come out very far ahead. Depends on how fast things come to a head and if/when gold bubbles. Personally if it gets under $30/oz when I'm watching I'll buy some.

[cjppjc]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Here's something funny... I don't do any trading but there are a few traders I like to follow for their technical analysis. I frankly don't understand how it works, so when they make specific calls for important "turns", I write it on my calendar then watch to see if it pans out or not.

My observation for "turn dates" is that they are frequently correct for the date, but wrong on the direction of the turn. This is what happened yesterday. Over three months ago I wrote on my calendar that Sept 25th would be a low for the Gold:Silver ratio. It seems that yesterday, the 26th might have been a high, instead.

Funny. I laughed out loud.

In a movie once, a golfer who just missed the put says "Well I got the speed right."

The caddie replies "Well that's half the game isn't it?"

[lakedaemonian]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Silver at $32, even at $25, seems expensive to me, since I remember when it was below $5. If you have both metals and patience, it's possible to increase your PMs without buying at these prices. Just trade some of one for the other whenever the ratios get extreme. Trade gold for silver when the GSR is high, trade silver for gold when the GSR is low. That way you can build your stacks without spending any money.

Same....under $20 and it will peak my interest.....otherwise my cash remains on the sidelines waiting for cheaper gold(been buying bigger the lower it goes down to 1540 the other day) and energy.

[tombat1913]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

That way you can build your stacks without spending any money.

Minus premiums of course

[shiny!]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

Minus premiums of course

Premiums will eat up your gains if you make frequent swaps. It's not something you do often.

I started slowly accumulating rolls of junk silver ~20 years or so ago when it was under $5. Foolishly, I stopped when the price climbed above $5.25/oz. Resumed purchasing again in 2007, then more when the ratio climbed to 1:77 to 1:85.

The week after EJ made his "sell silver" call at the end of April, I started swapping silver for gold when the GSR was 1:37 to 1:40. I missed the lowest ratio, but even counting premiums I ended up with approximately double the amount of gold than I would have had if I had bought gold in the first place.

A trading opportunity like this might not come along again for years.

[jpetr48]

Re: did the silver train just stop at the station?

I recall on BBC interview Jim Turk recommending 70% gold and 30% silver. Over at market outlook forum with finster we discuss diversification.