I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

[mooncliff]

We had a sharp jolt this afternoon.
if we have a 7.5, it would be
10,000 times the power at least.

http://tenki.jp/earthquake/detail-7879.html

The estimate is one trillion dollars in damage.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110829003976.htm

[aaron]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Is this type of stuff in the news over in Asia? Touchring posted something similar in rant and rave (probably where this should go as well). Basically, so many people will die if __________ natural disaster hits ________ big Chinese city.

Is this the current fear being sold to the masses?

[touchring]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Is this type of stuff in the news over in Asia? Touchring posted something similar in rant and rave (probably where this should go as well). Basically, so many people will die if __________ natural disaster hits ________ big Chinese city.

Is this the current fear being sold to the masses?

It's not just China, it could be Japan, or North American West Coast. I don't know, but I know the chance is very high within the next 5 years so it is only a matter of time.

This news is definitely not announced to the Chinese people. The PRC only announces good news. I got the info from a Chinese businessman that had contacts with government officials in Shaanxi province, and he told me that since the Sichuan earthquake the Chinese government is trying to move people living in hill sides in central China, so their seismologists definitely know something we don't know.

Unfortunately, there are tens of millions of people to move. It is a project that will take 20-30 years because it is not just about moving people, they need to be provided job opportunities after moving.

I Googled and found out that an earthquake in the Ming dynasty some 500 years ago killed 800,000 people - which is nearly half the population of England at that time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1556_Shaanxi_earthquake

If the same earthquake occur today, the casualties will be much higher.

I know I sound crazy but if you think about it, it all started with the Richter scale 9.1 Sumatran megathrust in 2004, followed by the 8.6 Nias Earthquake off Sumatra in 2005, and another 8.5 also off the Sumatran coast in 2007, followed by the 7.9 in Sichuan West China in 2008. The large quakes are spreading around the pacific plate, and moving towards more populated regions, Central and Northern China and Japan are both vulnerable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ry_earthquakes

[wayiwalk]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Maybe they can/will move those people to those empty cities elsewhere in China? I recall a post about them on itulip within the last year.

[touchring]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Maybe they can/will move those people to those empty cities elsewhere in China? I recall a post about them on itulip within the last year.

Even if the private owners of those apartment blocks are willing to let them stay for nought, what will they do there for a living? They people living in central china, are mostly peasants.

[mooncliff]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

We have been having quakes every day since the magnitude 9 quake in March, as Honshu continues to slowly slide to the east. This isnt some fear mongering thing. What is, and is not, reported in the US is sometimes so amazingly distorted, it is just amazing.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110829003976.htm

We are also about to have a typhoon, which in the autumn we sometimes have every week.

[aaron]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Is there any evidence in the past that more frequent earthquakes in the area presage a large quake? Isn't it normal to have a lot of these little quakes after a large one?

I don't mean to offend, but are you not 'fear mongering'? Unless I am unaware of some incredibly awesome Japanese earthquake prediction technology, it seems that the chance of a big one in Tokyo is the same as it was in the past --> Inevitable. ( But that could be any time within the next 1000 years.)

[lakedaemonian]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Is there any evidence in the past that more frequent earthquakes in the area presage a large quake? Isn't it normal to have a lot of these little quakes after a large one?

I don't mean to offend, but are you not 'fear mongering'? Unless I am unaware of some incredibly awesome Japanese earthquake prediction technology, it seems that the chance of a big one in Tokyo is the same as it was in the past --> Inevitable. ( But that could be any time within the next 1000 years.)

Here in Christchurch after our two big quakes we have had thousands of measured and felt aftershocks...including the odd ones identified as "new events".

I'm no rocket scientist...but I reckon after us being hit by two biggies it equates to winning Lotto.

We've all heard of folks winning(or in the case of earthquakes losing) Lotto.

And there's even been rare cases of folks winning Lotto twice.

But have you ever heard of someone winning Lotto 3 times? I haven't.

I know it is a very, very rough analogy....but in terms of serious earthquakes at a specific populated location I doubt it would be easy to find many(any?) that have occurred in the same specific populated location within 1 or more lifetimes.

I could be wrong...but I'm not aware of any.

I would think it possible that the earth has had periods of increased seismic activity...maybe we are going through a patch...or maybe we just left a patch of lower than average seismic activity...we just haven't noticed since we have only been measuring seismic activity for a brief "snapshot" period in our history.

Having been thru 2 and living in the aftermath I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy.

But in having said that I think that worrying about an event you can neither influence, control, or even predict with ANY degree of accuracy(unlike EJ and Co here with the FIRE crash) is time wasted.

I can assure you the sun still rises and kids still laugh and smile.

If anyone is overly worried about it I would suggest a disaster recovery plan for both personal and business/financial interests.

After the Boxing Day Tsunami and living on the beach I reassured my wife we would be OK in the event we suffered a natural disaster.

I developed two plans:

5 minute plan

30 minute plan

In 5 minutes we can be wheels turning with enough to self sustain our family for 10-14 days.

In 30 minutes we can abandon our home with enough to self sustain our family for a month or longer.

Same for my business interests.

During the recent quakes, once I was able to determine my staff were safe I could quickly assure them they would still be paid no matter what.

I wouldn't waste time on worrying about earthquakes......it's time that can be better spent building a better literal and figurative lifeboat.

Just my 0.02c

[touchring]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Here in Christchurch after our two big quakes we have had thousands of measured and felt aftershocks...including the odd ones identified as "new events".

I'm no rocket scientist...but I reckon after us being hit by two biggies it equates to winning Lotto.

We've all heard of folks winning(or in the case of earthquakes losing) Lotto.

And there's even been rare cases of folks winning Lotto twice.

I read that the Feb 21st earthquake may actually be an aftershock of the Sept 3rd 2011 Canterbury earthquake. So, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake is actually predictable.

Mooncliff is right to be concerned that a 7 or even an 8 may hit Kanto over the next couple of years. I checked the list of earthquakes in Japan on Wikipedia, the March 11th earthquake is probably the largest in recorded history of like 1500 years. It is unprecedented, beyond the thoughts of all but the craziest doomer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...uakes_in_Japan

In my opinion, if one lives in an earthquake zone, it is good to fear for it and be prepared.

[Master Shake]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

If the PRC leadership were really convinced they were in for a period of increased seismic activity, they would encourage people to live in the areas most likely to be affected in order to reduce the surplus population.

[c1ue]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

How about putting a time frame around this?

This way we know when your feeling is proven right or wrong.

[DSpencer]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

How about putting a time frame around this?

This way we know when your feeling is proven right or wrong.

Very good idea. Response to this situation would very greatly depending on whether this is within 5 days or 5 years.

[touchring]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Very good idea. Response to this situation would very greatly depending on whether this is within 5 days or 5 years.

A higher probability does not mean it will definitely happen in the short run. And besides, it might not be Tokyo. Natural disaster often strike where least expected. 3 techtonic plates, the Australian, Euroasia and Pacific plate have been destabilized.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

I read that the Feb 21st earthquake may actually be an aftershock of the Sept 3rd 2011 Canterbury earthquake. So, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake is actually predictable.

Actually predictable, just theoretically predictable, or more likely an educated guess?

If it truly was predictable, we would have certainly been bombarded by the press cooking up profitable edutainment filled with doom.

Mooncliff is right to be concerned that a 7 or even an 8 may hit Kanto over the next couple of years. I checked the list of earthquakes in Japan on Wikipedia, the March 11th earthquake is probably the largest in recorded history of like 1500 years. It is unprecedented, beyond the thoughts of all but the craziest doomer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...uakes_in_Japan

In my opinion, if one lives in an earthquake zone, it is good to fear for it and be prepared.

The Chilean and Alaskan quakes of the 60's are still the biggest to the best of my knowledge.....and depending on how you measure it the Japanese quake of 2011 is bigger or about the same as the Boxing Day Tsunami quake.

Yep...Japan could suffer a serious aftershock that could cause catastrophic damage.

I've seen how that works up close and personal.

But from my amateur and personally committed perspective if sorcery is a 1, economics is a 5, and meteorology is a 10 on the science scale....I'd probably put seismology at somewhere around a 2.

Christchurch has seen over 7000 measured(if not ALL felt) aftershocks.....Japan has had under 1000 as I understand it.

Some big brains try to explain why it MIGHT be....but they don't know for sure...just like their ability to accurately predict a quake from a human life span time frame is quite low.

Does it make sense to make preparations for a disaster?

Absolutely....it worked REALLY well for my family on a number of real occasions and several false alarms.

Does it make sense to worry(as opposed to prepare and move on) about an unpredictable earthquake?

Hell no.

THAT time would be better spent on trying to improve your personal health, because we are all slowly dying....some faster than others.....and the odds are clearly in favor of our poor personal choices and behavior killing us much faster than an overdue earthquake with a "window" measured in millenia.

To me it's a bit like ants worrying about being burned by a magnifying glass.

Just my 0.02c

[Sharky]

Re: I think we are about to have one or two Magnitude 7.5 quakes directly under Tokyo

Lots of small quakes is a good thing. It's when the small ones stop for an extended period that you should start to worry (San Andreas fault in California?). As long as they continue, it's a sign that the underlying geological stresses are being released. There have been several instances of lots of small quakes in a small geographic area around the world in recent years (Yellowstone, northern Baja California, etc), some in the aftermath of a big quake, but none so far, AFAIK, have presaged a monster quake.