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beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

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  • beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

    beggar thy neighbor and competitive devaluations, round ii.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...8/cnecb128.xml

    European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise as Sarkozy wins fight


    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 12:04am BST 28/08/2007


    The European Central Bank is poised to abandon a rate rise planned for early September, bowing to intense pressure from French politicians and a growing chorus of economists across Europe.
    Subprime crisis in full
    Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, said his use of the term "strong vigilance" (code for rate rise) in early August had now been overtaken by events.
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    "What I said was before the market turbulences," he said, making his first public appearance since the ECB began injecting €350bn (£238bn) of emergency liquidity to prevent a seizure of the credit markets.
    The comment was taken by the markets as a climb-down after weeks of raging controversy over the direction of ECB policy. The euro ended its recent rally, falling to $1.3638 against the dollar.
    While the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have both warned that the credit turmoil would spill over into the broader economy, the ECB has so far refused to lower its growth estimates.
    The hawkish stand has led to broadsides from French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who claims the bank has endangered Airbus and the French car industry by driving the euro to record levels.
    "What's happening on world markets is a rebuke for the ECB. It shows I'm right, and that Trichet shouldn't be considered Europe's sacred cow," he allegedly told aides, later leaked to the magazine Canard Enchâiné.
    "After causing a liquidity squeeze by raising rates, he's now had to inject liquidity to calm the crisis. We've now got to take advantage of this crisis to bend it [the ECB] to our will," he said.
    Bert Rürup, head of Berlin's ''Wise Men'' panel, warned against tightening in the middle of a credit crunch. "Even if the interest rate rise announced can be justified by economic conditions, I would advise against it at this juncture," he said.

    etc

  • #2
    Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

    Do we detect a note of disapproval, JK? ;)

    Sounds like Trichet has been getting some of the same kind of guff from political and financial interests that Bernanke has.

    But if this is the beginning of the end of the strong euro, maybe gold will reawaken from its nap. As the asset of last resort, it's been held back by the availability of strong (less weak) major currencies and the ability to earn reasonable yield on low risk instruments denominated in them. If the euro goes the way of the bonar and the yen ...
    Finster
    ...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

      It's not quite a foregone conclusion yet that Trichet will hold rates...
      The FT has a more balanced report:
      ECB keeps world guessing on rates

      http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c21b0e68-5...0779fd2ac.html

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

        Originally posted by Finster View Post
        Do we detect a note of disapproval, JK? ;)

        Sounds like Trichet has been getting some of the same kind of guff from political and financial interests that Bernanke has.

        But if this is the beginning of the end of the strong euro, maybe gold will reawaken from its nap. As the asset of last resort, it's been held back by the availability of strong (less weak) major currencies and the ability to earn reasonable yield on low risk instruments denominated in them. If the euro goes the way of the bonar and the yen ...
        Interesting you should mention gold. We were making our calls and discovered a curious thing. The spread between the price of circulated common numismatic $20 face gold coins and gold bullion coins has for the past 18 months or so been very tight, with numismatics generally demanding only a $20 dollar premium. Then, suddenly, over the past couple of weeks the spread has jumped to $50, by over 100%, while spot gold has gone nowhere. This was explained to us by sources we know to be independent and reliable (that is, they don't necessarily follow the collective wisdom of the community) that European buying is responsible. If that is true, then that presents a major reversal of a trend that is as old as the rise of the euro against the dollar, and may be an early indication of expectations of euro depreciation.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

          Originally posted by EJ View Post
          Interesting you should mention gold. We were making our calls and discovered a curious thing. The spread between the price of circulated common numismatic $20 face gold coins and gold bullion coins has for the past 18 months or so been very tight, with numismatics generally demanding only a $20 dollar premium. Then, suddenly, over the past couple of weeks the spread has jumped to $50, by over 100%, while spot gold has gone nowhere. This was explained to us by sources we know to be independent and reliable (that is, they don't necessarily follow the collective wisdom of the community) that European buying is responsible. If that is true, then that presents a major reversal of a trend that is as old as the rise of the euro against the dollar, and may be an early indication of expectations of euro depreciation.
          that is a fascinating tidbit EJ...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

            ECB BUYING GOLD?
            Mike

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

              Originally posted by EJ View Post
              Interesting you should mention gold. We were making our calls and discovered a curious thing. The spread between the price of circulated common numismatic $20 face gold coins and gold bullion coins has for the past 18 months or so been very tight, with numismatics generally demanding only a $20 dollar premium. Then, suddenly, over the past couple of weeks the spread has jumped to $50, by over 100%, while spot gold has gone nowhere. This was explained to us by sources we know to be independent and reliable (that is, they don't necessarily follow the collective wisdom of the community) that European buying is responsible. If that is true, then that presents a major reversal of a trend that is as old as the rise of the euro against the dollar, and may be an early indication of expectations of euro depreciation.
              Why would Europeans be so interested in numismatic coins over plain bullon? Gold is Gold and why pay a such a premium over spot?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: beggar they neighbor round ii - European Central Bank ditches interest rate rise

                Originally posted by jk View Post
                "What's happening on world markets is a rebuke for the ECB. It shows I'm right, and that Trichet shouldn't be considered Europe's sacred cow," he allegedly told aides, later leaked to the magazine Canard Enchâiné.
                "After causing a liquidity squeeze by raising rates, he's now had to inject liquidity to calm the crisis. We've now got to take advantage of this crisis to bend it [the ECB] to our will," he said.
                Bert Rürup, head of Berlin's ''Wise Men'' panel, warned against tightening in the middle of a credit crunch. "Even if the interest rate rise announced can be justified by economic conditions, I would advise against it at this juncture," he said.

                Trichet,no Jackson Hole:http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/...fx4068218.html

                LONDON (Thomson Financial) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has cancelled his visit to the economic symposium at Jackson Hole in the US.
                An ECB spokesman said Trichet, who was due to fly to the event today, has withdrawn for 'private reasons'.
                He may have more concerns at home.http://www.cnbc.com/id/20490527

                Earlier in the day, the ECB allotted banks 50 billion euros ($68 billion) for 91 days at a marginal rate of 4.56%, above the 4.50% expected by traders in a Reuters poll on Tuesday. The weighted average rate was 4.62 percent, above expectations of a 4.58% rate.
                One hundred and sixty eight banks bid for a total of 119.75 billion euros, a record high bid amount for the ECB's regular long-term operations.

                Comment

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