You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

[jpatter666]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I'd like to get EJ's current perspective on the Euro as a whole. IMO it's a very bad scene there with the Europeans kicking the can as best as possible, but they seem to be getting more and more stubbed toes in the process. I'm starting to wonder if soon they aren't going to break a foot.

I know EJ has said the Eurozone countries locked themselves in a straightjacket and threw away the key. Right now, they seem to be in an unbreakable box quickly filling with water. If they don't find that key or at least a suitable lockpick -- they're going to drown.

[Starving Steve]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I'd like to get EJ's current perspective on the Euro as a whole. IMO it's a very bad scene there with the Europeans kicking the can as best as possible, but they seem to be getting more and more stubbed toes in the process. I'm starting to wonder if soon they aren't going to break a foot.

I know EJ has said the Eurozone countries locked themselves in a straightjacket and threw away the key. Right now, they seem to be in an unbreakable box quickly filling with water. If they don't find that key or at least a suitable lockpick -- they're going to drown.

The way out is for the European banks to loan on COLLATERAL. It's like, you default, we take everything. It's back to basic banking, not dreamland banking. And guess what: There will be no more defaults.

The problem Europe and the U.S. got into was Keynsian economics: Passing-out free money to everyone, even deadbeats, and no questions asked, and all courtesy of Germany or the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve Bank in Washington.

As the Great Recession deepens into a depression, all of the chickens are coming home to roost.

Grow your way out of everything in order to pay back the loans? Yes, but what happens if you can not grow, and you shrink? Then new loans to pay-off the old loans? And more new loans after that? Welcome to the dreamland world of Ben Bernanke and his friends.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Hear Hear!

Did anybody notice that the 10 year treasury hit an all time high today? I must have read 20 articles that concluded that after the federal reserve stopped buying bonds that treasury yields would rise. This was like an article of faith on zero-hedge for the last four months ( at least ). All the usual suspects have been saying this for what seems like ages.

In three months gold is up 20% and Tbills are up 30%

[Starving Steve]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Imagine, investing in NYSE stocks with dividends that are 1% to 4% PER YEAR, and the stocks go down (or up) 2, 3, or 4% in ONE DAY. Then on top of that little problem, the SEC has not regulated the stock market, so anything goes. Company debt ratings have been mickey-moused. No-one knows what is going-on except insiders. Then on top of that, the little problem with visibility in this market: No-one, not even corporate CEOs can do planning now because everything is unclear with the economy. So in one week--- this week--- THIRTY BILLION DOLLARS was yanked-out of the NYSE from equity mutual funds. That money is apparently going into safe deposit boxes or into gold.

And to think Ben Bernanke is still running the Federal Reserve Bank with his insane policies! Meanwhile, Obama goes around America giving pep-talks, re-election speeches, and apparently is clueless about what is happening now.

[shiny!]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Imagine, investing in NYSE stocks with dividends that are 1% to 4% PER YEAR, and the stocks go down (or up) 2, 3, or 4% in ONE DAY. Then on top of that little problem, the SEC has not regulated the stock market, so anything goes. Company debt ratings have been mickey-moused. No-one knows what is going-on except insiders. Then on top of that, the little problem with visibility in this market: No-one, not even corporate CEOs can do planning now because everything is unclear with the economy. So in one week--- this week--- THIRTY BILLION DOLLARS was yanked-out of the NYSE from equity mutual funds. That money is apparently going into safe deposit boxes or into gold.

And to think Ben Bernanke is still running the Federal Reserve Bank with his insane policies! Meanwhile, Obama goes around America giving pep-talks, re-election speeches, and apparently is clueless about what is happening now.

He isn't clueless, he's just following orders. Somebody is making money from all this destruction (Hint: it isn't us). The government leadership, the president = puppets. Very venal, self-serving puppets.

[Southernguy]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

As for Europe, their only "solution" is Print, print, print.
And they are slowly starting to do it.
The other day´s order to buy bonds by the ECB is nothing else than a QE 1.
So, I´m very bearish on the euro (not playing it).
By the way this is a good solution for everyone, including Germany.
Competitive devaluations everywhere, until inflation turns too high.
Then, WHAT.......???

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

As for Europe, their only "solution" is Print, print, print.
And they are slowly starting to do it.
The other day´s order to buy bonds by the ECB is nothing else than a QE 1.
So, I´m very bearish on the euro (not playing it).
By the way this is a good solution for everyone, including Germany.
Competitive devaluations everywhere, until inflation turns too high.
Then, WHAT.......???

it is believed that the ecb has been sterilizing all its bond purchases. so that's not qe. perhaps they have recently given up that practice. if not, at some point they will stop sterilizing their bond purchases. then it's qe.

[ASH]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Ya know, digesting the news of the day further -- in particular the astonishingly bad manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed and the dollar funding stress in Europe hinted at by the report of a European bank tapping $500M from the ECB's swap line with the Fed -- I'm thinking it might be safe to go short again. It seems to me that these news items are pretty hefty, and greatly increase the chances of the August 26th GDP reading being bad news. Heck -- there's a whole string of reports due toward the end of August and the beginning of September that probably won't be pretty: GDP, consumer confidence, home prices, manufacturing, job growth... Maybe I'll look into going short again and see what happens through the end of the month. The thing I 'like' about the potential for bad news is that it is somewhat diversified, and includes at least one component (fear of flagging growth and the possibility of Europe and America re-entering recession) which isn't that susceptible to reversal by policy action. Also, it seems to me like the Fed will hold fire on QE3 a bit, having so recently announced the non-action of sustaining zero interest rate policy.

[dcarrigg]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Ya know, digesting the news of the day further -- in particular the astonishingly bad manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed and the dollar funding stress in Europe hinted at by the report of a European bank tapping $500M from the ECB's swap line with the Fed -- I'm thinking it might be safe to go short again. It seems to me that these news items are pretty hefty, and greatly increase the chances of the August 26th GDP reading being bad news. Heck -- there's a whole string of reports due toward the end of August and the beginning of September that probably won't be pretty: GDP, consumer confidence, home prices, manufacturing, job growth... Maybe I'll look into going short again and see what happens through the end of the month.

Yeah, it has been looking that way. With BoA on the ropes with ~$85B between ~15 lawsuits (and cutting 3,500 jobs), I'd say that big finance is likely to keep getting whacked from multiple angles over the next couple of months.

Plus we have the regular US budget due by the end of September - where the current continuing resolution ends. We'll see how much B.S. that generates. Given the way things are going, maybe they'll talk .gov shutdown again. It does little but add fuel to the panic fire (if it's burning at the time).

[Slimprofits]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

And gold vertical up right now.

and again this morning, gold going vertical, stock market futures in the other direction

[Slimprofits]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

front page of wsj.com this morning:

Last Straw or Time to Buy?

Laurence Montello, a certified financial planner in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., stayed the course through the stock market's swings earlier this month. Now that stocks are slumping again, led by Thursday's 3.7% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, he is urging clients to bail out.

"Three weeks ago, I would have said: 'We're in it for the long haul,'" Mr. Montello says. "But we don't want to see these $200,000 to $300,000 swings in performance in a $5 million account."

Mr. Montello now is advising clients, many of them retired, to move 20% of their stock portfolios into cash and 10% into Treasurys.

Greg Zandlo, a certified financial planner in Coon Rapids, Minn., went further: He advised clients Thursday to move their investments completely out of equities. "Stocks that have a 5% dividend are great, but what kind of consolation is that going to be if they're down 10%?'' he asks.

After the 419.63-point selloff by the Dow, many individual investors are finally throwing in the towel. They were already nervous. Investors withdrew $23.5 billion from domestic equity funds during the week ended Aug. 10, more than in any single entire month since October 2008.

On Thursday, trading volume at discount broker Scottrade Inc. was 77% higher than the day before and 50% higher than average of the four previous days, while TD Ameritrade also said volume surged.

[..]

Janet Moffett says that her stomach dropped on Thursday as her anxieties about the economy worsened. The 73-year-old Beverly, Mass., resident, who retired in April, planned to call her financial adviser after she "settles down'' to ask that he move more of her $200,000 investment portfolio into cash. Otherwise, she says, "I think I am going to be wiped out.''

[..]

Ted Sarenski, chief executive of financial adviser Blue Ocean Strategic Capital, is telling his clients to keep at least 20% of their total investments in cash. "While it might not be earning anything,'' says Mr. Sarenski, whose Syracuse, N.Y., firm manages $150 million, "that cash at least isn't losing value.''

[..]

Not everyone is pulling the plug. Christopher Cordaro, a wealth manager at RegentAtlantic Capital LLC in Morristown, N.J., says that he and his clients are holding tight. "We're in a slow-growth recovery that will have a lot of volatility associated with it,'' Mr. Cordaro says. "But there's not enough bad economic news to get out of the market.''

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Ya know, digesting the news of the day further -- in particular the astonishingly bad manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed and the dollar funding stress in Europe hinted at by the report of a European bank tapping $500M from the ECB's swap line with the Fed -- I'm thinking it might be safe to go short again. It seems to me that these news items are pretty hefty, and greatly increase the chances of the August 26th GDP reading being bad news. Heck -- there's a whole string of reports due toward the end of August and the beginning of September that probably won't be pretty: GDP, consumer confidence, home prices, manufacturing, job growth... Maybe I'll look into going short again and see what happens through the end of the month. The thing I 'like' about the potential for bad news is that it is somewhat diversified, and includes at least one component (fear of flagging growth and the possibility of Europe and America re-entering recession) which isn't that susceptible to reversal by policy action. Also, it seems to me like the Fed will hold fire on QE3 a bit, having so recently announced the non-action of sustaining zero interest rate policy.

your most immediate risk is the jackson hole meeting occurring SOON. last year bernanke used his jackson hole speech to give a big hint of qe2, and equities took off.

[ASH]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

your most immediate risk is the jackson hole meeting occurring SOON. last year bernanke used his jackson hole speech to give a big hint of qe2, and equities took off.

Yeah... it looks like his Jackson Hole speech is scheduled for August 26th, the same day as the GDP report. That does make it riskier to be short come the 26th...

[sishya]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Yeah... it looks like his Jackson Hole speech is scheduled for August 26th, the same day as the GDP report. That does make it riskier to be short come the 26th...

Then could it be then, that will be the best time to short ? everyone expects repeat of last year.
What happens in there is no QE(or insufficient) and GDP also bad ?

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

think of the market as a huge billboard with its message aimed at one consumer: ben bernanke. think he's getting the message?