You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

[Milton Kuo]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I'll probably not underestimate the China bubble factor. China influences Japan, emerging and resource rich economies, and of course commodities and also many exporters.

The U.S. stock market and economy are tanking just fine without China's help.

If China crashes, Australia is going to crash, hard, and I suspect Canada will crash, too. Shorting the Australian and Canadian dollars seems like a good way to play a China crash.

However, I seem to remember reading something recently from EJ how China's crash might somehow be averted due to the way their economy and political system is structured. Also, Li Ka-Shing is now saying that China won't suffer a hard landing. It's not clear to me if Li's public announcements are worth anything but assuming he's really speaking his mind, I'd be wary of playing a China crash.

[Chris Coles]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

The one thing to remember is the irrational nature of the human mindset. Anything could happen.

[touchring]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

The U.S. stock market and economy are tanking just fine without China's help.

If China crashes, Australia is going to crash, hard, and I suspect Canada will crash, too. Shorting the Australian and Canadian dollars seems like a good way to play a China crash.

However, I seem to remember reading something recently from EJ how China's crash might somehow be averted due to the way their economy and political system is structured. Also, Li Ka-Shing is now saying that China won't suffer a hard landing. It's not clear to me if Li's public announcements are worth anything but assuming he's really speaking his mind, I'd be wary of playing a China crash.

He says no "hard landing". But even a soft landing can cause a property and commodity meltdown. A bubble either inflates or deflate.

If you are living in Hong Kong, Shanghai or maybe even Vancouver, you'll probably also won't see the possibility of a hard landing cos there's so much cash around, 1 out of 4 or 5 person is a millionaire. The risk is to drown in cash rather than face a hard landing.

[touchring]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

The one thing to remember is the irrational nature of the human mindset. Anything could happen.

I'll add the possibility of Once in 500 years mega earthquake. It happened in Japan, Indonesia, China has so far escaped.

But it might be California also.

[Chris Coles]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I'll add the possibility of Once in 500 years mega earthquake. It happened in Japan, Indonesia, China has so far escaped.

But it might be California also.

Forget mega earthquakes, the real Bogey is the potential for a humongous landslide off the coast of Hawaii. Take a careful look at the top left hand image and the sea mount to the top right hand. It is 12Km long, 6Km wide and 2Km thick and lays 60Km off shore.
http://www.mbari.org/volcanism/Hawaii/HR-Landslides.htm

Or again, the flank of Kilauea has had ~1 million tons of lava a day pour onto that flank since 1978 and recently slumped. If that entire flank dropped into the ocean, you will lose everything on the Coast of the Pacific Rim.

The Hilina Slump is a 5,000 cubic mile (20,000 kilometre³) chunk of the big island of Hawaii on the south flank of the Kilauea volcano. Between 1990 and 1993, Global Positioning System measurements showed a southward displacement of the south flank of Kilauea up to approximately 10 centimeters per year.^[1] The slump has the potential of breaking away at a faster pace in the form of an underwater landslide. In Hawaii, landslides of this nature are called debris avalanches. If the entire Hilina Slump did slide into the ocean at once, it could cause an earthquake in excess of a 9 in magnitude and a megatsunami. Previous megatsunamis in Hawaii 110,000 years ago caused by similar geological phenomena created waves 1,600 feet (500 m) tall.^[2] Were such a megatsunami to occur again, it would threaten the entire Pacific Rim

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilina_Slump (It suddenly started moving at about 1.5 metres a day during a major rainstorm).

[GRG55]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

He says no "hard landing". But even a soft landing can cause a property and commodity meltdown. A bubble either inflates or deflate.

If you are living in Hong Kong, Shanghai or maybe even Vancouver, you'll probably also won't see the possibility of a hard landing cos there's so much cash around, 1 out of 4 or 5 person is a millionaire. The risk is to drown in cash rather than face a hard landing.

I don't know about Hong Kong or Shanghai, but if one in four people in my home town of Vancouver are millionaires you can be certain it is only because of the overinflated, bubblicious "value" of their little post-war bungalows...

Vancouver's detached house, townhouse and condo prices in June 2011 continued their advance with SFDs and Townhouses again setting all new Canadian price records (chart). The month of June sales slumped (SFD sales down 6.4% M/M) while inventory kept shrinking (scorecard), squeezing the remaining bulls into a narrowing market as they out bid each other for what they think is rare. Since the Spring 2009 pit of despair, an average benchmark SFD price in Vancouver is up 39%, a whopping 1.4% per month of nominal price appreciation...


...You can swap an average house in Vancouver for 3.4 average houses in Montreal. An average Vancouver house has increased in price by 169% in the last decade while earnings in BC remain trapped below the national average. As the Demographia table shows (Q3-2010 data), it requires almost 10 times the Vancouver median income to buy a median priced house. By my calculation, it now takes 3.7 average BC incomes (ménage à quartre) to qualify for an 80% mortgage on an average SFD here in Vancouver and yet earnings in BC remain 4.2% below the Canadian national trend line, 6.3% below Ontario earnings and 19.7% below Alberta earnings (Earnings Chart).

[charliebrown]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

gold at 19 barrels of crude is moving into the yellow zone.
A move to 20 might cause me to sell some gold to buy DBO. I know I hate this stock too. Maybe I can sell a way out of the money call to offset premium decay.

[DSpencer]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

i added a little under 2% to my energy positions late in the day, bringing that sector up to 16%.

Any inclination to share what energy positions you have?

The one thing to remember is the irrational nature of the human mindset. Anything could happen.

I'll add the possibility of Once in 500 years mega earthquake. It happened in Japan, Indonesia, China has so far escaped.

But it might be California also.

Forget mega earthquakes, the real Bogey is the potential for a humongous landslide off the coast of Hawaii.

Don't forget the possibility of a giant meteor heading straight for earth to kill us all!!!
Do you guys really invest with these kinds of thoughts swirling through your head?

[don]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I don't know about Hong Kong or Shanghai, but if one in four people in my home town of Vancouver are millionaires you can be certain it is only because of the overinflated, bubblicious "value" of their little post-war bungalows...

Vancouver's detached house, townhouse and condo prices in June 2011 continued their advance with SFDs and Townhouses again setting all new Canadian price records (chart). The month of June sales slumped (SFD sales down 6.4% M/M) while inventory kept shrinking (scorecard), squeezing the remaining bulls into a narrowing market as they out bid each other for what they think is rare. Since the Spring 2009 pit of despair, an average benchmark SFD price in Vancouver is up 39%, a whopping 1.4% per month of nominal price appreciation...


...You can swap an average house in Vancouver for 3.4 average houses in Montreal. An average Vancouver house has increased in price by 169% in the last decade while earnings in BC remain trapped below the national average. As the Demographia table shows (Q3-2010 data), it requires almost 10 times the Vancouver median income to buy a median priced house. By my calculation, it now takes 3.7 average BC incomes (ménage à quartre) to qualify for an 80% mortgage on an average SFD here in Vancouver and yet earnings in BC remain 4.2% below the Canadian national trend line, 6.3% below Ontario earnings and 19.7% below Alberta earnings (Earnings Chart).

California has a heavy reliance on housing and stock bubbles. During the technology bubble of the 1990s many pocket areas of the state saw wild increases in real estate values. In the 2000s much of the jump in real estate values was chalked up to mania driven delusion brought on by real estate itself. Take a look at the symbiotic relationship between stock values and California home prices:



As the stock market imploded in 2007 so did real estate values. When the stock market rebounded in 2009 so did real estate but very little. The relationship is tied but not always one-to-one as it was from 2007 to 2009. Look at 2006 where real estate values peaked while the stock market still had 18 months left before peaking. You start reaching a point where people question what is really going on.

Many of the wealthiest in our country, especially in California derive their net worth from the stock market and not mega mansions on Mulholland Drive. So these corrections cut to the core of their balance sheet but also what they are able to afford. Take a look at this Beverly Hills home for example:

13320 MULHOLLAND DR, Beverly Hills, CA 90210
Listed 08/01/11
Beds 5
Full Baths 7
Partial Baths 0
Property Type SFR
Sq. Ft. 9,375
$/Sq. Ft. $448
Lot Size 32,230 Sq. Ft.
Year Built 1990

According to Redfin this home is located in the Beverly Hills Post Office area. This home is currently listed for sale at $4,200,000. Looking at Zillow data reveals some interesting information:



It looks like someone tried to sell this place last year in June for $6,900,000. Didn't happened.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/t...x-income-data/

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Any inclination to share what energy positions you have?

i have a bunch of canadian producers, and two closed end funds of canadian companies. the larger [relatively speaking] individual positions are in coswf, su, avndf, pwe, aetuf, cve, tetzf, bte, vemtf, peyuf.

[DSpencer]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

i have a bunch of canadian producers, and two closed end funds of canadian companies. the larger [relatively speaking] individual positions are in coswf, su, avndf, pwe, aetuf, cve, tetzf, bte, vemtf, peyuf.

Much obliged.

[bill]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

China's crash might somehow be averted due to the way their economy and political system is structured.

They are proposing a new regulator with higher political rank.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...edName=topNews

BEIJING | Wed Aug 3, 2011 3:07am EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) - China is considering a proposal to create a ministerial-level body to manage its state-owned banks and non-bank financial enterprises, two sources with knowledge of the plan said, a move that would strengthen Beijing's grip on its lenders.
China's motivations for the move weren't clear, but the step could help the government tighten its control over the financial sector at a time when worries about local debt obligations are intensifying.
The new body would have a say in the management of China's biggest state-controlled financial institutions, including banks, brokerages, insurers, trust firms and funds, said the sources, one of whom has ties to China's top leaders and another who is a senior executive in China's financial industry.
By creating an overseer for banks, Beijing could distribute the burden of managing its numerous and sometimes unruly state-owned businesses.
The new financial supervisor would also outrank top bank executives in China's political hierarchy, said the sources, an important consideration in a country where top managers of state-controlled firms are usually high-ranking Communist Party members.
The heads of China's financial regulators, including the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the central bank, often have the same or slightly lower Party rank as the heads of the top state-owned firms.
The sources have requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters.
The plan, which needs to be approved by China's State Council, or cabinet, has been intensely debated and has been under consideration for months, the sources said.
NEW REGULATOR
The new government entity would be similar to China's powerful State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which oversees the country's 121 biggest -- and mostly non-financial -- state-owned firms.
SASAC acts as something like a board of directors for those companies, sometimes weighing in on strategic moves and deciding how much in dividends the firms should pay to the government.
But Chinese banks do not fall under SASAC's purview, leaving a gap in Beijing's supervision of lenders.
This hole cannot be adequately filled by the present group of Chinese financial regulators, which have no say in the appointment of top executives at state-owned firms, one of the sources said.
"How can a regulator supervise or criticize a state-owned enterprise president who outranks him?" the source with leadership ties said.
SASAC, the banking, securities and insurance regulators declined to comment when contacted by telephone.
Some analysts were skeptical that closer state scrutiny of China's financial sector would do the country any good.
Given that Beijing already has a big say over banks' lending, Chinese lenders need less, not more, state intervention, said Jim Antos, an analyst at Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong.
"It's one more layer of bureaucracy," said Antos. "It isn't because of banks' policy that we had excessive lending in 2009. It was because of the government's policy."
A lending spree ordered by Beijing after the 2008 financial crisis has saddled China with a pile of debt that is threatening to sour and hobble its banks and economy, the world's second biggest.
Still, if the plan is approved, a "financial SASAC" would be created before or during the next scheduled five-yearly cabinet reshuffle in 2013, the sources said.
The front-runner to head the financial SASAC is Lou Jiwei, currently chairman of China Investment Corp, the country's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, according to the sources.
Other candidates include securities regulator Shang Fulin.
Under the plan, the old SASAC would oversee industrial and telecommunications state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and transfer oversight of any financial institutions it oversees to the new entity.
"The financial SASAC would monitor central government SOEs' performance. At the moment, no one supervises performance," the financial industry source told Reuters, referring to profits.
Under the plan, China International Capital Corp, the country's most venerable investment bank, is likely to come under the new ministry's wing, the sources said. Its CEO, Levin Zhu, is the media-shy son of former premier Zhu Rongji.
Central Huijin, the largest shareholder of the country's state-controlled banks, may be hived off from China's sovereign wealth fund, CIC, and report to the financial SASAC, the sources said.
But CIC itself and China's $130 billion pension fund are unlikely to come under the jurisdiction of the new ministry.
If things go according to plan, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission would continue to be responsible for formulating and implementing policies as well as issuing licenses.
The banking, securities and insurance regulators would also regulate foreign and domestic private financial institutions for any irregularities.

[charliebrown]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I used to have individual companies, but I am small potatoes with a family to raise. I don't have time to monitor
10 or so companies. I own VDE and XLE. I'm beginning to realize that without really good knowledge of an individual company, most of the money is made on asset/sector allocation and not on the individual company. I think CVX is
a good company, but is it going to leave XLE in the dust?

Today we saw XLE break. at one point in time I saw XLE down near 5% and at the same time VDE was down only 1%
Good chance for an arbitrage play. They track each other closely. I feel sorry for people who had a automatic stop loss on
XLE. They may have sold because of some technical problems with XLE.

I picked up some VDE at sub $100.00 I was paring my position a few weeks ago when it was over 116, of course I wish
it sold more at 116. :-(.

Hold the phone ... I just noticed that VDE had a "mini flash crash at 11:55 EST. went down to 96.05

[LargoWinch]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

It looks like someone tried to sell this place last year in June for $6,900,000. Didn't happened.

Actually, it seems to me that someone tried to sell the place for $1.2 million (the average value of a Vancouver crackhouse) but without success!

[cjppjc]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I wonder where Nero is. This reminds me of 08/09