You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

[Mega]

"They" are trying a Mega deflationaly bust, throwing the biggest, baddest "Bear" they can...........to clear the way for QE3 ?
Mike

[ASH]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I don't know... in the States, SPXU (3x short the S&P 500) and EPV (2x short the MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East index) did rather well.

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I don't know... in the States, SPXU (3x short the S&P 500) and EPV (2x short the MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East index) did rather well.

;-)

all things considered, too, i don't think gold at 1650 is anything to complain about.

[WDCRob]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

i don't think gold at 1650 is anything to complain about.

Gold at 1.37 S&Ps is pretty nice too. (Feels much better if you drop the dollar out of the equation.)

[ASH]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

;-)

all things considered, too, i don't think gold at 1650 is anything to complain about.

I muffed a bunch of trades earlier this year. I got nervous about silver a bit before EJ's call, but rather than selling outright when he made his 'sell silver' call, I just put a trailing stop loss on my CEF position that was set to wipe out my gains on the position for the year if the market moved against me. Turns out my stop was almost exactly the bottom. Then, I've been trying -- and failing -- to time this stock market correction since about June 15th. (My somewhat imprecise thesis amounting to "there are too many plates in the air right now for one of them not to fall".) Through various round trips and misfires, I ended up pretty much flat for the year as of Tuesday. However, I was positioned well for today.

It seems to me this isn't 2008 -- at least not until big losses on sovereign bonds eat into European bank capital. Despite the panic, I don't see how this pull-back in the stock market can go as far. In theory, if everyone is concerned about global growth, there should still be a bottom that is dictated by a revision of expectations about future profits. So maybe profits won't be as stellar in the next few quarters as in the last couple... but unless banks start failing in Europe, it isn't even really a crisis.

But I hope I can ride this far enough to rack up a healthy rate of return for the year. And maybe it finally gives me that entry point for an energy position that I've been putting off and putting off.

[loweyecue]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

QID pretty weLl and my small position in VXX made me smile.
CEF is killing me

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

i added a little under 2% to my energy positions late in the day, bringing that sector up to 16%. my gold position, 40, then 46%- topped up when gold didn't sell off on last month's bad employment report-- has done well for me. as of tonight, with small losses on my gold, and bigger losses on my pre-existing energy positions, i'm up 11.5% for the year, 29.9% for the last 52 weeks.

the last few days are just wall street banging the drum for qe3. same as they did a year ago for qe2. it's like an annual migration of birds, or wildebeest, or monarch butterflies.

[unlucky]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Gold priced in euros is up for the day. although volatile. I earned more euros on my gold position today than I did at work (in fact that's true for the past month).

However I haven't been able to bring myself to add gold for the past 2 years. Instead i have been slowly accumulating value stocks, which of course are now all underwater. Hah!

Most of my non-gold savings is still in cash and today I moved a big load of it to my stock broker. Looking to get that energy position soon, like Ash. How long should I wait?

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Looking to get that energy position soon, like Ash. How long should I wait?

you'll never find the perfect moment. so don't wait. move 40% of the way to your target allocation. then wait a month and reassess.

[unlucky]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

you'll never find the perfect moment. so don't wait. move 40% of the way to your target allocation. then wait a month and reassess.

Seems like good advice, especially since Bernanke and friends will not be sitting this one out. There's one thing that can be said for Bernanke: he is far more effective at what he does than Barroso+Trichet+Berlusconi+Merkel. The PTB in Europe will be trashing my euro cash while the PTB in the US will soon be goosing any and all stocks within reach.

[LargoWinch]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

i added a little under 2% to my energy positions late in the day, bringing that sector up to 16%. my gold position, 40, then 46%- topped up when gold didn't sell off on last month's bad employment report-- has done well for me. as of tonight, with small losses on my gold, and bigger losses on my pre-existing energy positions, i'm up 11.5% for the year, 29.9% for the last 52 weeks.

the last few days are just wall street banging the drum for qe3. same as they did a year ago for qe2. it's like an annual migration of birds, or wildebeest, or monarch butterflies.

I am up 10.9% ytd in $CAD terms.

Good thing; sold silver and bought gold back in late April. Gold now over 40% of my allocation and churning most of my returns.

Bad thing; took a 9% total net worth position in Crude Oil / Nat Gas ETF/stocks about 3 days ago. Talk about timing! (no equities exposure prior to that except bonds/cash).

[jk]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

I am up 10.9% ytd in $CAD terms.

Good thing; sold silver and bought gold back in late April. Gold now over 40% of my allocation and churning most of my returns.

Bad thing; took a 9% total net worth position in Crude Oil / Nat Gas ETF/stocks about 3 days ago. Talk about timing! (no equities exposure prior to that except bonds/cash).

imo time will redeem your energy positions. and if you lost about 5% on those positions today, it cost you about 45bps.

[lektrode]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

and yet... it continues:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...424677652.html

• AUGUST 4, 2011, 8:59 P.M. ET

Asia Slumps, Joins Global Rout


MarketWatch

SYDNEY — Asia shares nose-dived on Friday, joining in a global rout, as deep fears about economic growth reached fever pitch ahead of a key report on U.S. jobs.
Japan's Nikkei Stock Average tumbled 4.1%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 4.1%, and Korea's Kospi dropped 3.9%.
A series of weak economic data points had accelerated growth concerns and, amid fragmented policy response to those concerns, U.S. stocks fell into correction mode on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA shedding 4.3%.
U.S. jobs data are on tap for later in the global day, with economists surveyed by MarketWatch expecting that the U.S. likely gained 75,000 jobs last month.
"In light of recent developments, that number has much greater importance than it usually would. We would really need to see a significant upside surprise in order to alleviate recent markets concerns about global growth prospects," said Sue Trinh, strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"We now have added concerns about global market conditions as well, and we'll be keeping a very close eye on funding conditions and money-market pressures in particular," she said.
Financials were among the worst performers in Asia, with Matsui Securities Co. falling 6.1% and Macquarie Group Ltd. dropping 8.1%.
Miners and energy firms were also hard-hit as growth concerns raised demand worries and hit many commodity prices overnight, with BHP Billiton Ltd. shares down 4.5% and Rio Tinto Ltd. shares sliding 4.8% as markets largely ignored its 30% jump in first-half profit, announced after the Sydney close on Thursday.
Exporters were also under heavy selling pressure, with LG Electronics Inc. down 7.1%, and Kia Motors Corp. down 5.2% in South Korea

[Milton Kuo]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

i added a little under 2% to my energy positions late in the day, bringing that sector up to 16%. my gold position, 40, then 46%- topped up when gold didn't sell off on last month's bad employment report-- has done well for me. as of tonight, with small losses on my gold, and bigger losses on my pre-existing energy positions, i'm up 11.5% for the year, 29.9% for the last 52 weeks.

the last few days are just wall street banging the drum for qe3. same as they did a year ago for qe2. it's like an annual migration of birds, or wildebeest, or monarch butterflies.

I've currently got roughly 9.5% of my portfolio in energy-related equities, down from 13% as I sold some positions in anticipation of this current downturn.

Grantham's May 2011 commentary, iTulip's model portfolio of 0% stocks, and the fact that I suffered a huge drawdown in 2008 makes me wary of having too large a position in equities even though I believe the companies and stocks are solid. The trick I'm trying to pull off is sit out a big correction (could this be the beginning of it?) and then jump back in when Bernanke prints more money.

The problem, it appears, is that everyone is attempting to do the same thing. I can't help but wonder that if one waits until after Bernanke announces another round of stimulus, faster-moving market participants will drive up the market before slower participants have an opportunity to jump in. That is, to get a decent return, it's probably going to be necessary to predict when Bernanke is going to print more money and front run him.

I have no earthly idea what the minimum conditions are that will trigger another round of Federal Reserve stimulus and would be interested in hearing what you and others think. I'll probably start nibbling at equities if the S&P 500 falls to 1,100. I'm currently sitting 24% in cash (USD) and would like to drop that percentage to 15% or so.

Year to date, I'm up 9.4% even after stupidly losing 0.7% on a speculative trade. This has been one of the most gut-wrenching 9.4% I've ever "earned." I can't help but wonder if I shouldn't just hedge my positions, sit out the rest of the year, and be content with about 9%.

[touchring]

Re: You name it, today it got KILLED !!!!!

Grantham's May 2011 commentary, iTulip's model portfolio of 0% stocks, and the fact that I suffered a huge drawdown in 2008 makes me wary of having too large a position in equities even though I believe the companies and stocks are solid. The trick I'm trying to pull off is sit out a big correction (could this be the beginning of it?) and then jump back in when Bernanke prints more money.

The problem, it appears, is that everyone is attempting to do the same thing. I can't help but wonder that if one waits until after Bernanke announces another round of stimulus, faster-moving market participants will drive up the market before slower participants have an opportunity to jump in. That is, to get a decent return, it's probably going to be necessary to predict when Bernanke is going to print more money and front run him.

I'll probably not underestimate the China bubble factor. China influences Japan, emerging and resource rich economies, and of course commodities and also many exporters. China makes and consumes half the world's steel and concrete and 40% of the world's copper, even a soft landing will trash commodities that no amount of money printing from Bernanke can offset in the short term.