US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

[Slimprofits]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

The Commerce Department Friday said gross domestic product rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.3% in April through June, while first-quarter growth was revised down sharply to a 0.4% rate from the earlier estimate of a 1.9% gain.

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

Shocking.....revised down to 1%

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

[metalman]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

Shocking.....revised down to 1%

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

wanna bet that 1.3% q2 turns into .2% in 3 months?

[lektrode]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

wanna bet that 1.3% q2 turns into .2% in 3 months?

have we seen _any_ of these numbers revised UP lately?
oh yeah, only one, far as i know: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
well.. that and the bonus kings' takehome along with fraud investigations...

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

wanna bet that 1.3% q2 turns into .2% in 3 months?

I was in the job market in Q2 and based on that experience will not bet against that.

[ASH]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

wanna bet that 1.3% q2 turns into .2% in 3 months?

I guess the stock market "thinks" there will be enough growth in the emerging markets to sustain corporate profits, or something. (Probably "or something".) Even if our Q2 GDP growth rate is not revised downward, things look to be stalled out across the developed world. A few weeks ago, Eurostat had European Q2 growth at 0.2% (not annualized), so that's pretty similar to ours on an annualized basis (0.8% versus 1.0%). Japanese GDP fell by 0.3% in Q2 (not annualized), so they're in contraction. So what happened since Q2 that is going to dramatically boost growth in the US, Europe, and Asia? Seems like lower energy prices and the fading effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami are reasons why we might not crash hard -- not so much reasons to expect robust growth.

And there's plenty of potential for political trouble in the US (round 2 of the deficit reduction debate), Europe (ratification of changes to EFSF, the question of collateral for bailout funds, and the big questions of "European economic governance", Eurobonds, and the expansion of EFSF), and Japan (here comes the 6th Prime Minister in 5 years). Plus it seems like the credit market's assessment of risk has recently diverged a little from the stock market's assessment, for the banking sector in the US and Europe.

Maybe I'm just a perma-bear, but I am having trouble imagining how corporate profits will be maintained in this environment.

[Prazak]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

I'm surprised there's not more discussion about the upcoming decision on 7 Sept of Germany's Constitutional Court on the legality of Germany's participation in the ESF's bailout scheme. I wouldn't be surprised to see the legality upheld but conditions laid out on German participation in future bailouts that are viewed as far too restrictive by bond and currency markets, with an ensuing flight to "quality" -- USTs and, lately, gold.

[mooncliff]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

Since the working age US population is increasing, and GDP would need to grow at 3% just to keep up, isn't this actually in effect a contraction of 2%?

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

The BEA will release their Third Estimate for the 2nd quarter tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST.

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm


Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

Third Quarter GDP was revised down to 2.0%

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.55 percentage points from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.28 percentage point from the second-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $8.5 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $39.1 billion in the second quarter and $49.1 billion in the first.

No mention at all on the evening news or cable news. I caught it on Nightly Business report.

[mesyn191]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

Maybe I'm just a perma-bear, but I am having trouble imagining how corporate profits will be maintained in this environment.

They'll just fire more people or outsource them or cut benefits and wages until profits go up again. Failing that they'll lobby congress for tax breaks or straight up cash give aways. Welfare is only for the job creators you see, sure they're creating those jobs in 3rd world countries with slave labor-esque wages but beggars can't be choosers right?

[Slimprofits]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

My employer is still slashing benefits and wages. After they stop matching 401ks, how long until a company usually goes out of business?

[bpwoods]

Re: US 1st quarter GDP revised down to .4% ~ 2nd Q comes in at 1.3%

"Maybe I'm just a perma-bear, but I am having trouble imagining how corporate profits will be maintained in this environment."

Hi Ash,

The 'game' if you want to call it such, is actually to maximize your income stream. Maxing profits is over. You can 'skim' your commission from income, or pay your bonus. As for your company debts, sure there are CDSs for this, and if that fails, there's always the Gov. :-)

Brian