Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

[metalman]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Try 200 -- or more -- years. I've got some pictures I could upload, but iTulip's loader says they are too big (6M).

Using oxen to till the rice paddies (for real, *not* a tourist thing), hand planting and harvesting of rice, mud, bamboo and straw housing. All from our 2011 trip to Yunnan province well off the tourist paths.....

pls, pls reduce to 1mb or what the limit it & upload. must see your pics of china!

[GRG55]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Your point is valid, especially when we take into consideration China's self-destructive history. The way I see it, however, is that a lot of the imbalances and troubles both within and outside of China stem from one thing: an undervalued currency. Chinese consumption will not pick up until the currency is allowed to strenghten...

Why are you so sure the Chinese currency is undervalued? With the breathtaking misallocation of capital underway in that country I wonder if the renminbi might be one of the most overvalued currencies on earth at this moment.

Likewise, ghost towns will certainly fill up if people could actually afford the property. The real estate bubble in China is not a credit bubble, it is a price bubble, thus there will not be that many systemic problems once it pops...

No credit fuelling the "price bubble"? Really? I presume you believe the stories that the Chinese are "cash buyers" then? If that be the case then there must be a whole lot of unallocated renminbi cash floating around that economy...which brings me to the item above about currency valuations...

[touchring]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

No credit fuelling the "price bubble"? Really? I presume you believe the stories that the Chinese are "cash buyers" then? If that be the case then there must be a whole lot of unallocated renminbi cash floating around that economy...which brings me to the item above about currency valuations...

A fall in property prices will hit the Chinese harder than Americans because they got their medical and retirement savings in them. Losing the home is the end of the world for typical a middle-age Chinese.

In comparison, an American can walk away from a mortgage and life continues.

Some photos to show the extent that some Chinese will take to defend their homes.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

During my last meeting with Leonard Sugerman, (my wonderful mentor for my US telecom/GPS IP), when I stayed overnight in his home in New Mexico, he got out his holiday videos. He had taken a coach ride from the coast to Beijing via the Great Wall and as such was riding in his coach during the period up to the Tienanmen Square protests. One of the defining images is, while still hundreds of miles from Beijing, the roads were almost completely blocked by a constant flow of young people, some with bicycles, many on foot, moving night and day, continuously as a solid mass towards Tienanmen Square. He arrived the night before the dreadful attacks, and got out of the coach and walked into Tienanmen Square with his video camera recording until all his batteries ran out. I have asked his family to keep them as a historical record. I came away from watching those videos with a deep sense that the ordinary people will not let China collapse back into communism; nor, for that matter, into any form of undemocratic control.

Touchring; what eventually happened to the house in the centre of the development you show us on the left??

[touchring]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Touchring; what eventually happened to the house in the centre of the development you show us on the left??

Here's a writeup on what happened - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...040300542.html

Another photos showing there are actually people living in that house before it got demolished. The owners are risking their lives, the house could have collapsed. There must had been no water and electricity while the owners holed up inside the house.

[GRG55]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Here's a writeup on what happened - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...040300542.html

Another photos showing there are actually people living in that house before it got demolished. The owners are risking their lives, the house could have collapsed. There must had been no water and electricity while the owners holed up inside the house.

...

Sometimes there seems much in common between the USA and China. It doesn't matter where you live...nothing shall be allowed to stand in the way of "progress"...

"...The nationwide attention given to the Chongqing drama hinted at the frustration felt by many Chinese over the lack of legal protection for individuals in a country where business and government are cooperating closely in the pursuit of economic growth..."

Court Expands the Power of Eminent Domain

More reasons for government to legally take your land

Dateline: July 2005

In its 5-4 decision in the case of Kelo v. City of New London, the U.S. Supreme Court issued an important, if very controversial, interpretation of the government's power of "eminent domain," or the power of the government to take land from property owners...

...Before Kelo v. City of New London, cities typically exercised their power of eminent domain to acquire property for facilities clearly intended for use by the public, like schools, freeways or bridges. While such eminent domain actions are often viewed as distasteful, they are generally accepted because of their overall benefit to the public.


The case of Kelo v. City of New London, however, involved a new trend among cities to use eminent domain to acquire land for the redevelopment or revitalization of depressed areas. Basically, the use of eminent domain for economic, rather than public purposes.
The city of New London, Connecticut developed a redevelopment plan city fathers hoped would create jobs, and revive downtown areas by generating increased tax revenues. Property owner Kelo, even after an offer of just compensation, challenged the action, claiming that the city's plan for her land did not constitute "public use" under the Fifth Amendment. In its decision in favor of New London, the Supreme Court further established its tendency to interpret "public use" as the much broader term, "public purpose." The Court further held that the use of eminent domain to promote economic development is constitutionally acceptable under the Fifth Amendment...

[c1ue]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

A fall in property prices will hit the Chinese harder than Americans because they got their medical and retirement savings in them. Losing the home is the end of the world for typical a middle-age Chinese.

In comparison, an American can walk away from a mortgage and life continues.

Some photos to show the extent that some Chinese will take to defend their homes.

Again you make the assumption somehow Chinese are different than others.

Sometimes this is true. Usually it is not.



See: Bob Guccione and Vera Coking

[aaron]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

I went to Yunan 15 years ago. It was a great experience. It sounds like it has not changed much

I have heard Kunming has changed, however.

Do you have any pics to upload ?

You need to make them small first. It depends on your software, but you should be able to export them or resize and save them to a different directory on your computer.

[cbr]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

i have heard of chinese machinists machining excess material, thus rendering bearing surfaces and parts too small, and over time taking the shavings away, melting them and selling them on the black market...

that is how corrupt it is....

[nathanhulick]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

China has not only done a wonderful job lowering costs and inflation rates around the world, it has also lowered standards. In my extended construction of the bunker I keep coming across Chinese components that have proved sub-standard and not sufficiently durable to make the cut. I spend considerable effort to avoid anything made there to the highest degree possible. The latest example are brass shut-off valves for my plumbing fixtures. The local building supply store I was dealing with used to carry Canadian made valves. A short time ago I purchased several more and discovered that the packaging is exactly the same, but the valves are now made in China and look identical to the previous versions. But all one has to do is operate the valve a few times and you can feel the difference immediately. I have found a new source for Canadian made valves. The incremental cost of the valves in a house project is minor compared to the cost of a plumbing valve failure in a completed residence...

That's because China's current niche is low cost production. You could have made the same case against South Korean manufacturing 20 years ago, or Japanese manufacturing 50 years ago.

[GRG55]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

That's because China's current niche is low cost production. You could have made the same case against South Korean manufacturing 20 years ago, or Japanese manufacturing 50 years ago.

jk made a similar observation a bit later on this same thread. My response to that suggestion here:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...03198#poststop

[lektrode]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

pls, pls reduce to 1mb or what the limit it & upload. must see your pics of china!

+1
and thanks to aaron for his!
we dont get many 'on the ground' views from china, at least not from the msm - have been astounded by some
(oh i'm sure theres plenty to be had, eye just dont go looking for them and appreciate it when we get first hand accounts)

[lektrode]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

It is hazardous to live in Shanghai or Beijing due to the pollution, not just air,

that was my first obs, how dirty the air seemed to be in most of the shots, esp low on the horizon - was this just hazy atmospheric conditions, or just plain ole smog?

but water (from the Yangtze) and even the food is hazardous. Fish, chicken, pork laced with antibiotics and hormones, milk laced with melamine, fruits with growth hormones. It is only a place to make money.

Having said that, I'm finding a way to bet on healthcare biz - hundreds of millions of people will need to seek cancer treatment in time to come.

found any good angles yet?

[lektrode]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

On the contrary, I learned a lot. I just wish I could organize my thoughts without all the pictures I took -> they are mostly inaccessible right now.
...
I have some of the pictures of the train, however.

great stuff, thanks!
the trains and the stations in particular have an aviation-kinda thing goin, eh? in that they appear like US airports?
and very slick, the trains themselves - having rode some of the US' best, tho not the acela yet, we really have a long way to go to catch up with them - personally, i think we made some bad choices in our transportation infrastructure that are now crushing us and i believe some sort of high-speed rail-in-a-tube will be the best hope going forward, as the price of oil will doom jet travel before very long - unless of course, some sort of breakthru happens along the lines of biofuels (and i'm not referring to ethanol or _anything_ that trades farmland/topsoil for motorfuel)

but please do post more when can, aaron - methinks theres quite a few railroad buffs on here...

[c1ue]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

I'd also like to point out - before the China bashing gets out of control - is that China is poor.

Yes, there are horrible examples of abuse in products coming from China. Nothing different whatsoever than what can be found in the annals of American manufacturing 80 to 100 years ago.

A friend just came back from 6 months as an English teacher in China.

Some of the more cogent comments he made:

1) The fish and meat in the stores is the crappiest imaginable. All bones and cartilage. He wondered where all the good cuts went - well, we're eating them.

2) Chinese are terribly naive. They really do believe that what benefits the boss will benefit (or at least not hurt) them.

3) Infrastructure for transport is ok. But infrastructure in every other way is still crap. Insulation in the places he lives in is so poor that basically he is freezing all the time.

There are lots more anecdotes, but they add up to the same thing: China is a mere decade or two away from being a really, really poor nation.

Today they are just somewhat poor.

In their headlong rush towards becoming richer, s**t happens. China doesn't have the luxury of 50 years of US subsidies helping them.