Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

[touchring]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Applause! I see this every day. Copies of tried and true designs that are close but not exactly the same. Only upon close inspection or use are the differences apparent. I've seen fake screws cast into parts to look like the originals that were screwed together. Now try and explain this to the average homeowner. You end up sounding crazy.

The best thing is the copies might be cast using lead, which is cheaper than steel and of course weak and poisonous.

[EJ]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

I went to China last month for 8 days. 4 days in Beijing and 4 days in Shanghai. I took the new bullet train to Shanghai. It was an awful experience buying the tickets. It took 2 hours! But, it looks like it could have been a lot worse.

You were in China's two main show cities that make you feel like you have stepped into the future, much as Moscow did as a Soviet show city in the 1970s, except that China's version is far more advanced by mercantilism and financed-based economy -- and mostly stolen technology. China has embraced a modern version of a state capitalist model developed by Nazi Germany, but without Hitler's crazed racism and militarism, at least not yet.

Next time you go to China, travel outside the show cities. You will see a China that makes you feel like you have stepped 100 years back in time.

[touchring]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

I went to China last month for 8 days. 4 days in Beijing and 4 days in Shanghai. I took the new bullet train to Shanghai. It was an awful experience buying the tickets. It took 2 hours! But, it looks like it could have been a lot worse.

You won't learn anything about China visiting Shanghai or Beijing. 90% of Chinese don't live in 1st or 2nd tier cities.

[mooncliff]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

They are starting to dig up the pieces they buried.

Too many people were screaming on the Chinese version of Twitter, etc.

[jpatter666]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Interesting timing in that I just came across an article in the WSJ discussing China's true patent output (i.e. patents *outside* of China).

Money quote:
A better measure is to look at those innovations that are recognized outside China—at patent filings or grants to China-origin inventions by the world's leading patent offices, the U.S., the EU and Japan. On this score, China is way behind the others.


The most compelling evidence is the count of "triadic" patent filings or grants, where an application is filed with or patent granted by all three offices for the same innovation. According to the OECD, in 2008, the most recent year for which data are available, there were only 473 triadic patent filings from China versus 14,399 from the U.S., 14,525 from Europe, and 13,446 from Japan. Data for patent grants in 2010 by individual offices paint a virtually identical picture.
Starkly put, in 2010, China accounted for 20% of the world's population, 9% of the world's GDP, 12% of the world's R&D expenditure, but only 1% of the patent filings with or patents granted by any of the leading patent offices outside China. Further, half of the China-origin patents were granted to subsidiaries of foreign multinationals.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...DDLE_Video_Top

[patrikkorda]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

You were in China's two main show cities that make you feel like you have stepped into the future, much as Moscow did as a Soviet show city in the 1970s, except that China's version is far more advanced by mercantilism and financed-based economy -- and mostly stolen technology. China has embraced a modern version of a state capitalist model developed by Nazi Germany, but without Hitler's crazed racism and militarism, at least not yet.

Next time you go to China, travel outside the show cities. You will see a China that makes you feel like you have stepped 100 years back in time.

Couldn't this have been said about the US, say, 100 years ago? Most of the skyscapers hadn't been built yet, and aside from a few key cities, the place was considered a backwater. What seems attractive about China are their assets, no doubt brought about by the huge savings' rate. I would assume that after a huge crash (like the panic of 1907) and a collapsing real estate market, China will consolidate and rise. That being said, I am biased towards both China and gold, as I own the RMB.

[touchring]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Couldn't this have been said about the US, say, 100 years ago? Most of the skyscapers hadn't been built yet, and aside from a few key cities, the place was considered a backwater. What seems attractive about China are their assets, no doubt brought about by the huge savings' rate. I would assume that after a huge crash (like the panic of 1907) and a collapsing real estate market, China will consolidate and rise. That being said, I am biased towards both China and gold, as I own the RMB.

In the long run, 30-50 years, China will do well, but there could be serious trouble within the next decade. Blood on the street, I mean real blood on the street.

The communist party rose because of income inequality. The still exists a rightist group in the communist party, you won't know what will happen when the party ends, and the hardliners decide to take over.

[lektrode]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

I went to China last month for 8 days. 4 days in Beijing and 4 days in Shanghai. I took the new bullet train to Shanghai. It was an awful experience buying the tickets. It took 2 hours! But, it looks like it could have been a lot worse.

did you snap any pix?
us train guys are interested, esp of what you saw riding by/thru the countryside and in and around the stations

[flintlock]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

The working title is "Theft and Subsidy: China's Economic Mirage" that describes the main drivers of China's economic success.

Theft is right. It is really great to start to hear that the truth about China and how they operate is becoming mainstream. Imagine what it will ultimately do to innovation if everyone's ideas get ripped off. It has just taken time for it to all play out. I can admire China for their ability to adapt and make almost anything cheaply, but their lack of respect for intellectual property is leading us into an unwinnable economic competition. 10 years ago it was their ability to copy military weapons that I feared most from China. Now I realize there are more ways to fight a war than just militarily. Instead we've created a Trojan Horse of our own doing.

My key worry is what China's leadership does when, after 30 years, there is no "Next Thing" that satisfies the west or its citizens.

Of course there won't be more as soon as the people designing "the Next Things" wake up and figure out they are ultimately being cut out of the deal. Not unless China suddenly learns the innovation part of the equation. Which I supposed is entirely possible. But then what for the rest of us? 3rd world poverty? What will the US have to offer anyone then?

You can't blame China for trying this. No more than you can blame the starving for stealing bread. All you can do is try and hold them accountable to the same standards as everyone else. So far there seems to be a lot of people willing to look the other way, as long as their bread is being buttered. Perhaps this is why China buys US debt. As a bribe to look the other way. But either way its the average guy on the street who takes it on the chin, not the powerful and connected.

[jpatter666]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

Next time you go to China, travel outside the show cities. You will see a China that makes you feel like you have stepped 100 years back in time.

Try 200 -- or more -- years. I've got some pictures I could upload, but iTulip's loader says they are too big (6M).

Using oxen to till the rice paddies (for real, *not* a tourist thing), hand planting and harvesting of rice, mud, bamboo and straw housing. All from our 2011 trip to Yunnan province well off the tourist paths.....

[patrikkorda]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

In the long run, 30-50 years, China will do well, but there could be serious trouble within the next decade. Blood on the street, I mean real blood on the street.

The communist party rose because of income inequality. The still exists a rightist group in the communist party, you won't know what will happen when the party ends, and the hardliners decide to take over.

Your point is valid, especially when we take into consideration China's self-destructive history. The way I see it, however, is that a lot of the imbalances and troubles both within and outside of China stem from one thing: an undervalued currency. Chinese consumption will not pick up until the currency is allowed to strenghten. Likewise, ghost towns will certainly fill up if people could actually afford the property. The real estate bubble in China is not a credit bubble, it is a price bubble, thus there will not be that many systemic problems once it pops. I think there are a lot of factors that point to a higher RMB, that is why I own it. (to be honest I am getting afraid of holding gold or any dollar-denominated assets)

[aaron]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

On the contrary, I learned a lot. I just wish I could organize my thoughts without all the pictures I took -> they are mostly inaccessible right now.

I have been to Western China (15 years ago). I have seen the poverty. It looked similar to the poverty I have seen in other countries, although I don't think I was allowed to go see the "real" poor places.
My main reason for going to China was to visit these 2 showcase cities. I really wanted to see the greatness that China claims. I was extremely disappointed with Beijing. The people were not pleasant there. Shanghai was a big shopping mall. People were friendlier there, but it is still unlivable all the same.

I have some of the pictures of the train, however.

[flintlock]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

As long as your HO is made by Lionel, and not the Golden Happiness Lucky Dragon toy company...

Sounds like a blowup doll.

[touchring]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

It is hazardous to live in Shanghai or Beijing due to the pollution, not just air, but water (from the Yangtze) and even the food is hazardous. Fish, chicken, pork laced with antibiotics and hormones, milk laced with melamine, fruits with growth hormones. It is only a place to make money.

Having said that, I'm finding a way to bet on healthcare biz - hundreds of millions of people will need to seek cancer treatment in time to come.

On the contrary, I learned a lot. I just wish I could organize my thoughts without all the pictures I took -> they are mostly inaccessible right now.

I have been to Western China (15 years ago). I have seen the poverty. It looked similar to the poverty I have seen in other countries, although I don't think I was allowed to go see the "real" poor places.
My main reason for going to China was to visit these 2 showcase cities. I really wanted to see the greatness that China claims. I was extremely disappointed with Beijing. The people were not pleasant there. Shanghai was a big shopping mall. People were friendlier there, but it is still unlivable all the same.

I have some of the pictures of the train, however.

[GRG55]

Re: Train wreck is no surprise to me, trains wreck all the time, but what happens next is really nuts.

You were in China's two main show cities that make you feel like you have stepped into the future, much as Moscow did as a Soviet show city in the 1970s, except that China's version is far more advanced by mercantilism and financed-based economy -- and mostly stolen technology. China has embraced a modern version of a state capitalist model developed by Nazi Germany, but without Hitler's crazed racism and militarism, at least not yet.

Next time you go to China, travel outside the show cities. You will see a China that makes you feel like you have stepped 100 years back in time.

In Dubai, and the rest of the Persian Gulf Emirates and Kingdoms, the veneer of modernity is paper thin. Before the bust the facade of ever taller office towers, "7-star hotels, indoor ski hill, branch office museums, Ascot-wanna-be horse races, "biggest this" and "most expensive that", along with the relentless promotion of these real-life Magic Kingdoms covered over societies with serious stress faults that the "Arab Spring" is helping to reveal. The Rolls Royce courtesy car ride from Dubai airport to the Burj Dubai hotel might leave one with an interesting opinion about life in that Emirate, but one doesn't need to go too far afield in that small region to find a Shia village and witness something that is in stark contrast.

Jim Chanos' "Dubai times 1000" description is probably truer than most are willing to admit. He coined the phrase to describe the real estate bubbles, but I think it's applicable across much more than that. I very much see the same behaviours and explanations for why "China is different". And I don't buy it, any more than I believed the nonsense being spouted locally when I lived in the Gulf...