Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[touchring]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

russia is already selling a lot of oil to china and if i'm not mistaken recently completed another pipeline for that purpose. further, they don't deal in dollars but in yuan and rubles only. i'm sure this is cheaper for china than starting a war with russia. meanwhile russian-chinese military visits are happening with the chinese announcing this is a "signal" to the u.s.

the saudi royals visited russia this past fall- a first - and presumably are thinking opec 2.0 re: global oil supplies. and the saudis are purchasing the russian s-400 air defense system.

Geopolitically, the biggest threat to China come from Russia/Siberia/Mongolia, Korea and Japan. These are regional powers that fought countless wars with China over millenniums. A lot of people don't know that war with an ancient north korean war actually led to a collapse of a Chinese dynasty.

For Russia, the threat comes from China, Japan and Europe.

The US is actually only a third party.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Seriously, do you live in a perfectly efficient shoe box? Is your larder and refrigerator filled purely with nutritious, healthy foods? Do you own any sporting goods, like a pair of skis or ice skates, and if so how much of your 24 hour day is devoted to using them? To make the statement you did is to be superficially rational...and utterly dismissive of human motivations and behavior. But then I am an engineer, so what would I know about such things.

i think we are all [unfortunately?] aware of the irrationality of our species, but the continued immiseration of the bulk of the population will gradually exert inexorable logic.

i also believe that millennials as well as those currently in adolescence [too young to be millennials] are not as emotionally invested in driving and cars as their elders.

[geodrome]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Why do you think there is a discussion in the USA about finally getting out?

Despite technological advances, PCO is still a thing right? Therefore doesn't the USA need Middle East oil in the foreseeable future more than in the past?


However, was securing the oil supply really the reason for all the interventions in the middle east? Would the Middle East oil not be available on the world market if not for the interventions? I thought the military industrial complex was the primary driver of war in the Middle East. I think what will eventually lead to the US withdrawing is the weakening of the US Empire and the military getting stretched too thin.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

i think we are all [unfortunately?] aware of the irrationality of our species, but the continued immiseration of the bulk of the population will gradually exert inexorable logic.

i also believe that millennials as well as those currently in adolescence [too young to be millennials] are not as emotionally invested in driving and cars as their elders.

I hear the line that youth today aren't as invested in driving cars a lot. But--at least in the burbs in the US--almost all of them I know seem to still end up with a car when they are 16.

Sure, they are not as attached to the cars maybe. But that's because even just back in the 90s it was way more common for a 16 year old to have job and to have bought the car and purchased insurance and when you work hard for something you tend to get a bit more attached to it than if it's given to you...especially if it's a car and you get to pick it out (at least within a meager budget) rather than just get whatever hand-me-down you end up with.

Sure, maybe Billy 16-year-old isn't as emotionally invested in the 2001 Volvo station wagon mom and dad let him drive around in. Especially not compared to Johnny 36-year-old who bought that 1987 Dodge Daytona with minimum wage sweat wages and had his name on the title.

But I'm still not convinced that Billy is going to just give up the car so easily.


Plus, the trend of moving back to urban cores seems like it was a temporary trend...and very much a one-time millennial thing. It started in 2007. It peaked in 2012. And it already appears to be reversing over the past 5 years. The national narrative hasn't caught up with this yet.




More than that, growth rates are changing.

Growth rated dropped hard for rural America from 2005 until 2016. Bad decade. But they're positive again now, if barely. Meanwhile, small metro growth rates are climbing while large metro growth rates are falling, even as people who stay in large metros are emptying out of their cores and moving into suburbs and exurbs.

Allentown and Dayton and Detroit are seeing increasing growth rates, San Jose is seeing plummeting growth rates, almost down to zero. Brooklyn is actually shrinking again. Miami and Houston are dropping too. Austin is still growing--it's not all the usual suspects.

But the trend from the peak of the last housing bubble until a year or two ago seems to be over. We've entered a new epoch--the new housing bubble is bigger than the old one ever was in many major metros and it's centered on the urban core. Millennials getting older and looking at the clock are never, ever going to be able to afford to own in these places. And they've told all their younger siblings and cousins that rent is outrageous in Boston/NYC/San Jose or wherever. And they're all going other places.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Other things I want to say about the new epoch of where people are moving in America:

1. The period of both people moving back into urban cores within large metros and growth rate increase of large metros (and corresponding decrease of small metros and rural areas) coincides with historically high oil prices in inflation-adjusted terms from roughly 2005 to 2015.

2. This is the same period over which millennial attitudes towards cars were supposedly forming. Remember, we got to a point where an hour at minimum wage gross would not get you 1.5 gallons of gas. Now it will get you almost 3. Meanwhile average fuel economy went from 19mpg to 24mpg. And heating and appliances and all matter of other things got more energy efficient.

3. That means driving is cheaper now. A whole lot cheaper if you're only paying the gas and maintenance costs of the car and not the capital and insurance costs. Also, utilities are more relatively affordable compared to rents. So the bonus you get for eschewing the car and living in a cramped apartment is much smaller.

4. We've always talked about how rent+commuting expenses is a better way to look at affordability. Well, rents in urban cores especially have gone totally bananas. Commuting has gotten cheaper.

5. Expensive rents drive out fun. They just do. It's not just community--high prices driving teachers and cops and firemen and everyone out hours away because their salaries can't afford rent. It's basic fun. You can't have great new experimental music venues and art spaces and all other things like that along with the maker spaces and dive bars and communities that go with them if rent is outrageous. You don't get that weird bodega with the killer cheap sandwich or soup or whatever. You get no culture mixing. You can only have very high end fashion and restaurants and these sorts of very safe, fancy, boring, sanitized things. And the truth is, if you want boring, sanitized, expensive culture, you can see Hamilton or the latest Eagles Reunion Tour basically anywhere in the US for a short trip and a hotel night. They're coming to Des Moines as well as NYC. So if the small-time local unique fun stuff is gone, and only the big blockbuster productions are left, there's nothing special anymore. Then all that's left is luxury goods stores and high-end restaurants. For 99% of people, there's no fun even in browsing a luxury goods shop. You feel like you shouldn't even walk in the door. The whole bazaar-excitement-feeling of commerce just gets drained from commercial districts...the idea that you can just open a door and take a look around, walk into a place and order a drink or food--that idea dies. The hustle and bustle of tourism and grifting and the whole thing just goes away. Only the select few people who know who they are and where they're going and what they're capable of paying even play anymore. Thus the cycle of higher-rents creating boring neighborhoods feeds into itself.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

my observation about less interest in cars and driving isn't based on what i read, it's based on the kids i see and difference between them and kids i saw 10 or 20 or 30 years ago. but the plural of anecdote isn't data, so nonetheless, you make a lot of interesting points. it's hard to fit all the flows together- as the millennials establish families they want more room and are more ready to leave the core. otoh graying boomers are increasingly interested in "walkability."

[Chris Coles]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Other things I want to say about the new epoch of where people are moving in America:

1. The period of both people moving back into urban cores within large metros and growth rate increase of large metros (and corresponding decrease of small metros and rural areas) coincides with historically high oil prices in inflation-adjusted terms from roughly 2005 to 2015.

2. This is the same period over which millennial attitudes towards cars were supposedly forming. Remember, we got to a point where an hour at minimum wage gross would not get you 1.5 gallons of gas. Now it will get you almost 3. Meanwhile average fuel economy went from 19mpg to 24mpg. And heating and appliances and all matter of other things got more energy efficient.

3. That means driving is cheaper now. A whole lot cheaper if you're only paying the gas and maintenance costs of the car and not the capital and insurance costs. Also, utilities are more relatively affordable compared to rents. So the bonus you get for eschewing the car and living in a cramped apartment is much smaller.

4. We've always talked about how rent+commuting expenses is a better way to look at affordability. Well, rents in urban cores especially have gone totally bananas. Commuting has gotten cheaper.

5. Expensive rents drive out fun. They just do. It's not just community--high prices driving teachers and cops and firemen and everyone out hours away because their salaries can't afford rent. It's basic fun. You can't have great new experimental music venues and art spaces and all other things like that along with the maker spaces and dive bars and communities that go with them if rent is outrageous. You don't get that weird bodega with the killer cheap sandwich or soup or whatever. You get no culture mixing. You can only have very high end fashion and restaurants and these sorts of very safe, fancy, boring, sanitized things. And the truth is, if you want boring, sanitized, expensive culture, you can see Hamilton or the latest Eagles Reunion Tour basically anywhere in the US for a short trip and a hotel night. They're coming to Des Moines as well as NYC. So if the small-time local unique fun stuff is gone, and only the big blockbuster productions are left, there's nothing special anymore. Then all that's left is luxury goods stores and high-end restaurants. For 99% of people, there's no fun even in browsing a luxury goods shop. You feel like you shouldn't even walk in the door. The whole bazaar-excitement-feeling of commerce just gets drained from commercial districts...the idea that you can just open a door and take a look around, walk into a place and order a drink or food--that idea dies. The hustle and bustle of tourism and grifting and the whole thing just goes away. Only the select few people who know who they are and where they're going and what they're capable of paying even play anymore. Thus the cycle of higher-rents creating boring neighborhoods feeds into itself.

Perhaps of even greater importance is that all those "fun" things made it possible for many with long term potential to create them; they are surely, the initial job creation adventure, that then allowed those with further potential to follow through with new, long term business plans that, in turn, create new economic opportunities. Now, all that adventure has been lost to an entire generation. Food for thought?

[vt]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Trump and the Saudis working together to keep Iran's toxic leaders boxed in by economic problems. Also helps U.S. to keep Soviet economy slower so they can't create more mischief.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1JQ0ES

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Trump and the Saudis working together to keep Iran's toxic leaders boxed in by economic problems. Also helps U.S. to keep Soviet economy slower so they can't create more mischief.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1JQ0ES

The Frontline "Bitter Rivals" is an excellent treatment of the special rivalry between these two nations. It has been declared "unbiased" and "real" by people from SA.


They could not watch it at home, because the government prevents any hard headed reporting on itself. They have to get outside the coutnry to see it ( USA ) in this case.

[seobook]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

There is a meeting between Putin & Trump in a couple weeks.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/03/p...-trump-summit/
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/03/p...eting-kremlin/

What purpose is there in that meeting?

• Peel Russia away from China?
• Pretend normalizing relationships with Russia to exert better influence over policy in EU so someone else funds more of NATO?
• Ensure elevated oil flows out of Russia to give him greater confidence in really soaking Iran?
• Fill the Trump-hating mainstream media with a head-exploding circular non-story smoking guns?
• Some combination of the above?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I just assumed it was Trump's annual performance review with his boss.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

On the face of it these are all constructive indicators. However, some of those arrested are not objectors to any of these, but have warned the pace of change the Crown Prince is trying to impose is fraught with risk of failure in a conservative society such as Saudi Arabia.

This of course comes from those who enjoy enormous privilege. It remains to be seen if they can wield enough power to ultimately depose the Crown Prince or if he will prove to be the Arab equivalent of Putin.

Do not underestimate the role ego may be playing here. The Saudi Crown Prince has been quoted repeatedly that he wishes Saudi Arabia to be the home of "the new Dubai". The current Ruler and former Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, is a legendary and flamboyant figure, largely credited with the creation of what is modern Dubai. Could it be Mohamed bin Salman covets a similar international reputation and adulation?

Then again, MBS, as he is known, may genuinely be trying to move his country forward, connecting it with an increasingly globalized world, and reforming the economy as he knows the dependence on one commodity, however currently vital, will not provide for its citizens indefinitely.

I think we have a definitive answer.

At least Putin is sophisticated enough to use Polonium 210, and other somewhat more elegant techniques.

My flat in London at the time was a few blocks from the Millenium Hotel on Piccadilly and my friends and I used to patronize the bar where the third, and successful attempt to poison Litvinenko took place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poison...der_Litvinenko

As for this latest extrajudicial Saudi killing perhaps Shakespeare captured it best through Lady MacBeth:

"Out, damned spot! out, I say!--One: two: why,
then, 'tis time to do't.--Hell is murky!--Fie, my
lord, fie! a soldier, and afeard? What need we
fear who knows it, when none can call our power to
account?--Yet who would have thought the old man
to have had so much blood in him...

...The thane of Fife had a wife: where is she now?--
What, will these hands ne'er be clean?--No more o'
that, my lord, no more o' that: you mar all with
this starting...

...Here's the smell of the blood still: all the
perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little
hand. Oh, oh, oh!"

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

it is testimony to insular thinking that they thought they could carry out this murder so obviously and so crudely without blowback. however, it remains to be seen whether there will, in fact, be any real consequences other than a brief flurry of bad press and official but hollow condemnations.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

it is testimony to insular thinking that they thought they could carry out this murder so obviously and so crudely without blowback. however, it remains to be seen whether there will, in fact, be any real consequences other than a brief flurry of bad press and official but hollow condemnations.

If Erdogan would have cooperated, would they have gotten away with it, or at least gotten away with less blowback? Relations between them seemed to be warming in late summer early fall. Not so much now. Just as a curious observer, Turkey's role in international affairs has been very interesting these past few years.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

If Erdogan would have cooperated, would they have gotten away with it, or at least gotten away with less blowback? Relations between them seemed to be warming in late summer early fall. Not so much now. Just as a curious observer, Turkey's role in international affairs has been very interesting these past few years.

it became clear that the eu was never going to include turkey, while erdogan doubled down on islamism and decided turkey's future lay in leadership of the muslim world and the middle east in particular.