Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The enemy within is the most dangerous:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/04/saudi-arabia-ousts-ministers-arrests-princes-and-former-officials.html

Saudi Arabia ousts ministers, arrests princes and former officials in anti-corruption sting

Saudi Arabia's King Salman has removed a prominent prince who headed the National Guard, replaced the economy minister and announced the creation of a new anti-corruption committee.

The Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya news channel also reported late Saturday that dozens of princes and former ministers were detained in a new anti-corruption probe headed by the kingdom's powerful Crown Prince Mohammed Salman. No further details were immediately given.

The king ousted one of the country's highest-level royals from power, relieving Prince Miteb bin Abdullah of his post as head of the National Guard. Prince Miteb was once considered a contender for the throne.

The monarch also replaced Minister of Economy and Planning Adel Fakeih with his deputy, Mohammad al-Tuwaijri...

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

pm of lebanon, who had saudi support, just resigned, saying he was the target of an assassination plot.

i just read some speculation that all this is somehow tied to the saudi's soon cozying up to the chinese, getting ready to sell oil for yuan and/or gold instead of dollars, maybe forgoing an aramco ipo and just selling a piece directly to a chinese entity.

what do you make of all this, grg?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

It had crossed my mind that the Aramco launch was going to be another example of everyone finding out the truth of their reserves; afterwards! Thus it might be the last straw before the complete collapse. But, if jk is correct above, then this time, it would be the Chinese that take the hit.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Meh....

Al-Waleed wasn’t exactly the Arab Warren Buffett.

He is more along the lines of Donald Trump than he would care to be categorised as(beyond just shared ownership of the same yacht, Daddy’s money).

Maybe a comparison to Russian oligarchs would be a better analog. Maybe Mickail Khodorkovsky?

Make a fortune in the family business, but don’t ever take sides against the family.

Al-Waleed as Freido Corleone perhaps?

Maybe Al-Waleed is Freido, maybe he’s on the short list of the ultra wealthy the average Saudi would want to string up. Sacrifice to the people baying for blood.

Anywho.....the Houthis in Yemen are continuing to throw missiles at Saudi area targets.

First Mecca, now Riyadh.

Lots of blaming Iran(and Iran IS providing proxy support to be a thorn in the House of Saud’s side), but the Yemenis have been playing with big rockets since the 1970’s. They’re pretty competent at it, including hillbilly engineering SCUDs to extend their range to hit area targets(highly inaccurate terror weapons).

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

pm of lebanon, who had saudi support, just resigned, saying he was the target of an assassination plot.

i just read some speculation that all this is somehow tied to the saudi's soon cozying up to the chinese, getting ready to sell oil for yuan and/or gold instead of dollars, maybe forgoing an aramco ipo and just selling a piece directly to a chinese entity.

what do you make of all this, grg?

The enemy within...

Its a simple purge of those whom the current regime considers a threat to its continued existence, and a message to those lesser citizens that criticism of the King and Crown Prince, however discrete will not be tolerated.
The charges of "corruption" are laughably convenient, as usual in these situations.

The late King Abdulla was a real problem. Held the country back at a time when it could least afford to do so. But the well placed wealthy such as bin Talal and bin Laden continued to benefit and stayed quiet. The torch has been seized, not passed, to a new generation of Princes, led by the Crown Prince, who clearly has considerable influence over his somewhat mentally incapacitated father, King Salman. Enough to persuade his father to remove the prior Crown Prince (his cousin) and install him.

Is the new generation truly going to reform the nation, its international relations and its economy? Or merely make a few highly visible changes, such as allowing females to drive, as window dressing while they take their own turn at looting the country (Knowing how things work in that region, I am utterly unconvinced bin Talal paid for his custom A380 "executive jet" by being as astute an allocator of capital as Warren Buffett).

Let's all hope it's the former. Time will tell.

In the meantime it's going to be very interesting what they do with all the prominent citizens the authorities have detained. Will they be under indefinite house arrest in Saudi luxury hotels? Banished permanently to their lavish villas in Geneva, Monaco and the Côte d'Azur? Released after an appropriate period of "re-education" and the securing of declarations of loyalty?

Just as an aside, the Arab nations in the Gulf have been moving away from their historical over-dependence on the USA ever since the Bush II Administration refused to listen to them and deliberately destabilized the region by invading Iraq in 2003. I pay little attention to the histrionics of newly minted pundits that read into every state visit or trade arrangement with China or Russia this is somehow the demise of either the US$ or the USA itself. If the Crown Prince is serious about bringing the Kingdom out of its isolation he has to strengthen diplomatic, trade and other economic ties with every important nation on earth. Having said that, if a shooting war ever erupts between Iran and the Arab Gulf States, does anybody here really think the latter want to depend on the Chinese or the Russians to come to their aid?

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

didn't know this:

Before the arrests on Saturday of his fellow royals and former ministers on corruption allegations, Prince Mohammed had stripped the religious police of their arrest powers and expanded the space for women in public life, including promising them the right to drive.

and

The 32-year-old crown prince outlined his religious goals at a recent investment conference in Riyadh, saying the kingdom needed a “moderate, balanced Islam that is open to the world and to all religions and all traditions and peoples.”

...
[referring to resistance from religious conservatives:] The government has tried to silence such sentiments by arresting clerics and warning members of the religious police not to speak publicly about the loss of their powers, according to their relatives.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The enemy within...

Its a simple purge of those whom the current regime considers a threat to its continued existence, and a message to those lesser citizens that criticism of the King and Crown Prince, however discrete will not be tolerated.
The charges of "corruption" are laughably convenient, as usual in these situations.

The late King Abdulla was a real problem. Held the country back at a time when it could least afford to do so. But the well placed wealthy such as bin Talal and bin Laden continued to benefit and stayed quiet. The torch has been seized, not passed, to a new generation of Princes, led by the Crown Prince, who clearly has considerable influence over his somewhat mentally incapacitated father, King Salman. Enough to persuade his father to remove the prior Crown Prince (his cousin) and install him.

Is the new generation truly going to reform the nation, its international relations and its economy? Or merely make a few highly visible changes, such as allowing females to drive, as window dressing while they take their own turn at looting the country (Knowing how things work in that region, I am utterly unconvinced bin Talal paid for his custom A380 "executive jet" by being as astute an allocator of capital as Warren Buffett).

Let's all hope it's the former. Time will tell.

In the meantime it's going to be very interesting what they do with all the prominent citizens the authorities have detained. Will they be under indefinite house arrest in Saudi luxury hotels? Banished permanently to their lavish villas in Geneva, Monaco and the Côte d'Azur? Released after an appropriate period of "re-education" and the securing of declarations of loyalty?

Just as an aside, the Arab nations in the Gulf have been moving away from their historical over-dependence on the USA ever since the Bush II Administration refused to listen to them and deliberately destabilized the region by invading Iraq in 2003. I pay little attention to the histrionics of newly minted pundits that read into every state visit or trade arrangement with China or Russia this is somehow the demise of either the US$ or the USA itself. If the Crown Prince is serious about bringing the Kingdom out of its isolation he has to strengthen diplomatic, trade and other economic ties with every important nation on earth. Having said that, if a shooting war ever erupts between Iran and the Arab Gulf States, does anybody here really think the latter want to depend on the Chinese or the Russians to come to their aid?

It’s smelling like more than just a purge to continue power and more like a consolidation of power within one faction within the House of Saud.

The late Abdullah’s 3rd son who was minister of the Saudi National Guard(for those that don’t know, this is the largest single regime continuity force for the Saudi royal family), Mutaib just got the sack.

He was regarded as a bit of a hard liner towards all the many angry Islamic studies students to avoid a Saudi Spring, rather than just more policies to rent their temporary allegiance.

Mutaib was considered to be quite capable and competent at his job, unlike so many who outsource the hard work.

[Polish_Silver]

future of women

Great post GRG !

The enemy within...

Its a simple purge of those whom the current regime considers a threat to its continued existence . . .


Is the new generation truly going to reform the nation, its international relations and its economy? Or merely make a few highly visible changes, such as allowing females to drive, as window dressing while they take their own turn at looting the country . . .

Allowing women to drive might have pretty profound consequences.

But I think the larger question is, will women be allowed to move and work independently, without a man to protect/control them?

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

didn't know this:

Before the arrests on Saturday of his fellow royals and former ministers on corruption allegations, Prince Mohammed had stripped the religious police of their arrest powers and expanded the space for women in public life, including promising them the right to drive.

and

The 32-year-old crown prince outlined his religious goals at a recent investment conference in Riyadh, saying the kingdom needed a “moderate, balanced Islam that is open to the world and to all religions and all traditions and peoples.”

...
[referring to resistance from religious conservatives:] The government has tried to silence such sentiments by arresting clerics and warning members of the religious police not to speak publicly about the loss of their powers, according to their relatives.

On the face of it these are all constructive indicators. However, some of those arrested are not objectors to any of these, but have warned the pace of change the Crown Prince is trying to impose is fraught with risk of failure in a conservative society such as Saudi Arabia.

This of course comes from those who enjoy enormous privilege. It remains to be seen if they can wield enough power to ultimately depose the Crown Prince or if he will prove to be the Arab equivalent of Putin.

Do not underestimate the role ego may be playing here. The Saudi Crown Prince has been quoted repeatedly that he wishes Saudi Arabia to be the home of "the new Dubai". The current Ruler and former Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, is a legendary and flamboyant figure, largely credited with the creation of what is modern Dubai. Could it be Mohamed bin Salman covets a similar international reputation and adulation?

Then again, MBS, as he is known, may genuinely be trying to move his country forward, connecting it with an increasingly globalized world, and reforming the economy as he knows the dependence on one commodity, however currently vital, will not provide for its citizens indefinitely.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

On the face of it these are all constructive indicators. However, some of those arrested are not objectors to any of these, but have warned the pace of change the Crown Prince is trying to impose is fraught with risk of failure in a conservative society such as Saudi Arabia.

This of course comes from those who enjoy enormous privilege. It remains to be seen if they can wield enough power to ultimately depose the Crown Prince or if he will prove to be the Arab equivalent of Putin.

Do not underestimate the role ego may be playing here. The Saudi Crown Prince has been quoted repeatedly that he wishes Saudi Arabia to be the home of "the new Dubai". The current Ruler and former Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, is a legendary and flamboyant figure, largely credited with the creation of what is modern Dubai. Could it be Mohamed bin Salman covets a similar international reputation and adulation?

Then again, MBS, as he is known, may genuinely be trying to move his country forward, connecting it with an increasingly globalized world, and reforming the economy as he knows the dependence on one commodity, however currently vital, will not provide for its citizens indefinitely.

MBS seems to be pretty brash in action.

He kinda owns the seemingly perpetual Yemen debacle.

The financial commitments of insane petrol recycling defence spending, Yemen war spending, and world class graft leave little room for empty economic transformation promises.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The saddest aspect of this debate is, the Yemen war completely destroys his credibility as a reformer who is supposedly leading towards a concept of a free (freer) nation. How he extricates himself from that profound mistake will define his entire future standing as a world class leader. Until he does extract from the Yemen, no one with an understanding of what should be attractive about a region dedicated to new scientific and industrial research, will take up his offer. It takes much more than money to attract the very best minds to a nation. Yes, I do understand that the internal forces he is facing represent a dire threat; but starting wars, both external and internal with that threat; rather than a debate both without and within his nation, shows he is more interested in continuing "their" game, rather than furthering his vision of the future.

To really succeed, he has to change direction; soon.

[Polish_Silver]

role of ego

On the face of it these are all constructive indicators. . .

Do not underestimate the role ego may be playing here. The Saudi Crown Prince has been quoted repeatedly that he wishes Saudi Arabia to be the home of "the new Dubai". . ..

Many political figures want to "go down in history". It is what they want to be known for doing that distinguishes them.

Afghanistan had a liberalizing ruler, who brought automobiles into the country. He did not last long--the regional rulers got rid of him.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

We wouldn't want to think that the only acts of mass political stupidity currently underway in this world are restricted to the environs of Washington, D.C...

Blasts rock Tripoli, NATO targets Gaddafi compound

Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:28pm EDT

TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Explosions rocked central Tripoli for the second night in a row and Britain said weeks of NATO bombardment had inflicted extensive damage on Muammar Gaddafi's heavily-fortified compound.

Libya's leader is clinging to power despite a four-month-old NATO air campaign and a lengthening conflict with rebels seeking an end to his 41-year rule and who have seized large swathes of the North African country...

..."Gaddafi has for decades hidden from the Libyan people behind these walls. The vast Bab al-Aziziyah compound is not just his personal residence, but more importantly is also the main headquarters for his regime, with command and control facilities and an army barracks," Pope said Sunday...
[Four months of bombing and they just figured this out now? ]

As Western nations intensify diplomatic efforts to foster an exit from the conflict, a European diplomat said a U.N. envoy would seek to persuade warring parties in Libya to accept a plan that envisages a ceasefire and a power-sharing government, but with no role for Gaddafi...

...Hopes for a negotiated settlement are growing as Europe and the United States grapple with fiscal crises at home.

This week, France said for the first time Gaddafi could stay in Libya as long as he gives up power...

[...and agrees to buy some EFSF bonds...]

What goes around, comes around.
i found this development quite interesting:

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...ign-funds.html

Ex-French president Nicolas Sarkozy charged over alleged illegal campaign funds

Investigative judges overseeing the probe gave the ex-president charges of illegally funding his 2007 winning campaign, passive corruption and receiving money from the late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, a judge official said.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

http://time.com/5208822/gaddafi-son-...-libya-regime/

"... Sarkozy, who—along with then-British Prime Minister David Cameron—had led the push for the West to bomb Gaddafi’s forces."

wanted to destroy the evidence?

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

http://time.com/5208822/gaddafi-son-...-libya-regime/

"... Sarkozy, who—along with then-British Prime Minister David Cameron—had led the push for the West to bomb Gaddafi’s forces."

wanted to destroy the evidence?

Perhaps.

To this day what was done in Libya dismays me. Far more than what the USA did in Iraq.
Gaddafi was feted by the leaders of Europe. Relations broke down after Swiss authorities arrested his son for allegedly beating up personal servants. But that hardly seems justification to bomb the country into chaos.