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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
since vietnam, the only time the americans withdrew quickly was gulf war i.
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Except for . .
Except that Russians want their nation to be perceived as the "tough guy" , not the "nice guy".Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View PostComment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
I'm waiting for a picture of Putin in the Med on a Russian aircraft carrier with a Миссия выполнена banner in the background
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
do you picture putin in a flight suit or bare chested?Originally posted by GRG55 View PostI'm waiting for a picture of Putin in the Med on a Russian aircraft carrier with a Миссия выполнена banner in the backgroundComment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
GRG, you made me laugh out loud. This one goes on the year-end reel!Originally posted by GRG55 View PostI'm waiting for a picture of Putin in the Med on a Russian aircraft carrier with a Миссия выполнена banner in the backgroundComment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Oil price's take on Russia's withdrawal from Syria.
Some time ago Mike Whitney wrote a piece saying that Saudi Arabia was pressing (blackmailing) he said Russia with the threat to keep oil prices low if Russia kept forces in Syiria. Now we have these news.
The oil price article basically keeps the same tune...Interesting, I think.
The Rationale Behind Russia’s Withdrawal From Syria By Robert Berke 2 hours ago
As reported around the world, Russia’s decision to greatly reduce its military presence in Syria, coming as it did with little warning, has left the world struggling for explanations.
After having rescued the Syrian Government’s position in Syria from certain defeat and securing a partial truce along with the onset of an imminent peace conference, the partial withdrawal is seen by many as a message to the Assad government to not take Russia’s military aid for granted, and to be more flexible in the upcoming peace negotiations.
If we assume that all wars are essentially trade wars grown large, and in the Middle East, they almost always involve energy, then the Russian gambit in Syria can be viewed from a different perspective. Russia’s economy is currently in recession, partly as a result of western sanctions, but much more seriously hurt by the crashing of energy prices.
Russia’s warming relations with Saudi Arabia has helped to bring about an OPEC-Russian sponsored freeze in oil production, with only Iran refusing to comply. With the Syrian withdrawal, Russia has tempered a major political feud with the Saudis over Russia’s support for Assad, a move that at once increases the prospects for a Russian-Saudi agreement on oil production cutbacks.
There are also many who think that Russia is also increasing pressure on its allies to be more flexible, not only in peace talks but also oil production cuts. With the withdrawal of the Russian protective air shield, Iran and Hezbollah’s ground forces in Syria are suddenly exposed to the threat of Saudi and Turkish air attacks. Will the threat of a looming military catastrophe in Syria force Iran to comply with production cuts?
Many oil insiders believe that after decades of punishing western sanctions, Iran’s oil industry is in no condition to meet its avowed quota for production, so that an agreement on cuts might cause little sacrifice.
Russia’s actions may well have staved off other threats to its business. Recall that Robert Kennedy Jr., the nephew of the slain U.S. President, recently published an article in Sputnik, claiming that the major reason for the west’s attempt to overthrow the Assad government was to build a natural gas pipeline from Qatar that traversed Syria, capturing its newly discovered offshore reserves, and continued on through Turkey to the EU, as a major competitor to Russia’s Gazprom.
By re-establishing the Assad government in Syria, and permanently placing its forces at Syrian bases, the Russian’s have placed an impenetrable obstacle to the development of the Qatar gas pipeline. Russia has also placed itself at the nexus point of other new offshore gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean, including Israel, Cyprus, and Greece.
It’s not hard to imagine a new Russian pipeline to Europe serving these new partners. Could easing of sanctions also lead to the implementation of the long-stalled plans of Gazprom for a second pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany for Russia and its partners, Royal Dutch Shell, Germany's E.ON, and Austria's OMV?
If so, we can be assured that the U.S. will be in fierce opposition to any such plans. As George Friedman, founder of Stratfor has stated, the American’s worst European nightmare is an alliance between Germany and Russia.
The timing of the Russian withdrawal could not be more fortuitous, as it occurs at the very pinnacle of the European refugee crisis, a crisis that was caused by Europe’s backing of the Saudi-Turkish attempt to overthrow Assad. For the first time in four years, the truce in Syria offers respite for Syrian refugees, fleeing from constant bombardment and attacks, and raises prospects for increasing security within their homeland.
Is this part of the Russian Syrian gambit? Is Russia gambling on receiving some modicum of European gratitude for helping to stem the flight of refugees to its borders, with the pay-off in terms of easing sanction and enabling its long stalled pipeline projects to be completed.
No, Putin could not possibly be so calculating, could he?
By Robert Berke for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Thanks for letting me know; it made me genuinely happy to hear that!Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
In the midst of the sometimes all too serious discussions we have on this board, it's probably a good thing we can still sometimes make each other laugh.
"If we couldn't laugh, we would all go insane"
Jimmy BuffettLast edited by GRG55; March 16, 2016, 11:57 PM.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Source is a bit sensational but:
US, Russia aim to ‘decapitate’ Syrian military
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 7, 2016, 8:47 PM (IDT)
Tags: Barack Obama, Bashar Assad, Vladimir Putin, Syrian army, Syrian rebels, Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Aleppo, Hizballah,
The US, Russia and the Syrian rebels started discussions this weekend over the composition of a list of Syrian generals who will be dishonorably discharged over war crimes they committed during the country’s civil war, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources say in an exclusive report.
The generals will not face trial at an international tribunal over their war crimes. They will be able to leave Syria along with their families and their possessions, just like President Bashar Assad and his clan.
Our sources add that atop the list are the commanders of the Syrian air force who carried out the majority of the Assad regime’s attacks on the rebels over the past five years, including the atrocities of the past few days.
The sources say that the Americans and the Russians intend to “decapitate” the command but leave the military’s structure in its current form while integrating rebel fighters and commanders into its units. The rebel commanders are to receive ranks equivalent to their current ones in the new Syrian army.
debkafile’s exclusive report on Wednesday, May 4, that Russia is ready to discuss the terms for Assad’s ouster surprised and stunned the political and military hierarchy in Tehran. In urgent consultations held the same day, it was decided to dispatch Iran’s deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, to Moscow without delay in order to determine whether the report was accurate.
The senior Iranian diplomat arrived in the Russian capital the following day and met with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the chief strategist of Russia’s Middle East policy.
Immediately after the meeting, Amir-Abdollahian said Iran will continue supporting Assad and the Syrian people in fighting terrorism, and make efforts to achieve success at intra-Syrian talks, namely the negotiations in Geneva between the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition. The Iranian diplomat did not say a single word about Assad’s future.
However, Moscow was one step ahead of Tehran. Shortly before Amir-Abdollahian deplaned in the Russian capital, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a bombshell statement, saying “Assad is not our ally, by the way. Yes, we support him in the fight against terrorism and in preserving the Syrian state. But he is not an ally like Turkey is the ally of the United States.”
Our sources said it was a put-down for both Washington and Ankara, whose relationship has deteriorated recently.
debkafile’s military sources report that Assad has not failed to notice the latest developments, and he continues to use Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah forces to attack the rebels in the parts of Aleppo that they control. This comes despite the announcement on Saturday, May 7, by Moscow and the Russian military in Syria that the ceasefire in the northwestern city had been extended by 72 hours.
Assad is keeping the Syrian army in reserve to defend his regime against the US-Russian plan to depose him.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
I wrote that in reference to Turkey. Well there you have it. Muslim democracy led to ......the end of democracy. The military has attempted a coup to protect democracy (their words not mine!).Originally posted by llanlad2 View PostComment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
erdogan in turkey has been following the same path as morsi in egypt, albeit more slowly. one election democracy, illiberal democracy, majoritarian democracy, non-plural democracy, the tyranny of the majority without rights for those who are not in that majority.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Worse than that, it looks to me like maybe we just witnessed the Reichstag burn. What modern military with modern troops and jets and technology could ever fail a coup attempt so badly? There weren't nearly enough troops on the ground. Communications remained consistently up. Crowds weren't even remotely intimidated. The NYPD used harsher tactics against the Occupy kids in 2011.Originally posted by jk View Post
This wasn't much of a coup. Certainly doesn't look like one anybody intended to win. Nobody even wants to take credit for it. And the Turkish army should have been more effective than the Egyptian army, not less. Looks like Ergodan's purges worked pretty well. But the whole damned thing also feels incredibly orchestrated.
If you ask me, we're witnessing Ergodan's rebirth as a true dictator and the beginning of some sort of intense Turkish military action. Because either way, whether real or orchestrated, the logical thing to do after this is to give the army something to fight outside your borders and clamp down on civil rights and liberties. I feel for the Turks. Because, at least at this very early hour, I do not see this going well for their people, their economy, or their Republic.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Strategy of tension at work as in the 1980 coup. I suspected this when all the bombings started coming in fast and furious behind the civil unrest. Just like 1980, I thought, and now with this "coup" I am convinced of it.
Considering that it has "failed" could it have been an effort to draw out unreliable members of the officer corps in advance of some radical plan of action? I keep thinking of the 30 September Movement in Indonesia as a possible model here, with the "coup" being made to neutralize the leader's opposition and allow for his desired response.
If the Turkish armed forces wanted to take control of the government by coup, as they did in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1993, and 1997, they would do it with quick efficiency as in times past and we would certainly make sure of it.
Your empathy for the Turkish people is entirely appropriate. Something terrible their way comes.Comment
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