Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[touchring]

Re: Temperature's Rising. As is the Pressure

You can see that the Saudi regime feels very insecure. A strong regime like Putin's Russia will just imprison their enemies. Executing one's enemy is a sign of weakness.

You only execute your adversary if you feel threatened by his very existence and feel that he might escape because you are weak.

Meanwhile, is God signaling his displeasure?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...2015-live.html

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Temperature's Rising. As is the Pressure

Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran has been seized and burned.

Some photos show 1-2 Iranian riot cops smiling and not exactly stressed out.....just an anecdotal, but not exactly what you'd expect in what is yet another real time globally important spark.

Saudi is reportedly going nuts bombing the Yemeni capital into smaller bits of rubble.

The Saud regime is under enormous pressure running a hugely expensive proxy war at it's doorstep in Yemen that is an existential threat to Saud power as well as the opaque/nebulous battle at home to keep "paying rent" to the general populace...rent that now includes higher food/energy prices with the recent Saudi budget.

-----

The GENUINE western mercenary angle(unlike 99.9999% of US and coalition action in Iraq/Afghan) is exploding in Yemen.

Led by an Australian Army general who took a role commanding the UAE Presidential Guard with the tacit support of the Aussie government(Aussie special operations personnel have had a LONG standing relationship training UAE forces, but this is actually LEADING on combat operations command).

An Australian has already been killed on rotation in Yemen, serving directly for UAE as well as a considerable number of ethnic Columbians.

[touchring]

Re: Temperature's Rising. As is the Pressure

Why fight for the Saudi royalty? I can't understand how some of these Western and South American mercenaries fighting in Yemen think by getting themselves involved in an Islamic sectarian war.

Yes, if you're fighting for Allah to the death, I can understand so, but the mercenaries, I doubt they pray to Allah.

Also, the performance of the Saudi military is really pathetic. If they can't handle Yemen rebel army how are they going to handle a full scale Iranian invasion??

The Saudis have scrwed up by overestimating the strength of their own military, that of the US, and the commitment of the US, and underestimated the strength of Putin and Russia's military.

[GRG55]

Re: Temperature's Rising. As is the Pressure

You can see that the Saudi regime feels very insecure. A strong regime like Putin's Russia will just imprison their enemies. Executing one's enemy is a sign of weakness.

You only execute your adversary if you feel threatened by his very existence and feel that he might escape because you are weak.

Meanwhile, is God signaling his displeasure?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...2015-live.html

"A strong regime like Putin's Russia"? You can't be serious...

How the Unshackled Ruble Has Changed Russia's Economy Forever

November 9, 2015 — 9:00 PM MST

Runaway Inflation


Rising Poverty


Oil Exporters

Russia's key oil producers have benefited from the weakening currency thanks to the tax system and the fact their costs are mainly in rubles and their revenue is in foreign currencies. It's helped counter their losses from the slump in crude. The government is now considering a windfall tax on oil and gas companies for next year, which would limit oil exporters' benefits from the ruble’s devaluation.




Russia's economy keeps getting smaller

November 12, 2015

The Russian economy took another slide in the third quarter, shrinking by 4.1% compared to the same period last year.

This marks the third consecutive quarter of contraction, keeping the country firmly in a deep recession.

However, economists said it could have been worse. After all, Russian GDP dropped by a more dramatic 4.6% in the second quarter...

...The 60% collapse in oil prices since the middle of 2014 made the situation much worse. Russia is heavily dependent on its oil riches -- a large portion of government revenue comes from oil and gas exports.

The ruble has lost half its value against the dollar since the start of 2014, and inflation has soared.

The International Monetary Fund expects Russian GDP will shrink by 3.8% this year and by another 0.6% in 2016. Meanwhile, it estimates that inflation will hit 15% this year, and average 8.6% in 2016, wreaking havoc on people's budgets.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Temperature's Rising. As is the Pressure

Why fight for the Saudi royalty? I can't understand how some of these Western and South American mercenaries fighting in Yemen think by getting themselves involved in an Islamic sectarian war.

Simple. Money/energy

In Kabul 2012-2014 I witnessed Ross Perot's "giant sucking sound" of folks chasing the money shift from Afghanistan to northern Iraq/Kurdistan

Yes, if you're fighting for Allah to the death, I can understand so, but the mercenaries, I doubt they pray to Allah.

Also, the performance of the Saudi military is really pathetic. If they can't handle Yemen rebel army how are they going to handle a full scale Iranian invasion??

Iran will never invade Saudi via conventional warfare. Unconventional, as per Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen is a different story.

The Saudis have scrwed up by overestimating the strength of their own military, that of the US, and the commitment of the US, and underestimated the strength of Putin and Russia's military.

Putin's military is incredibly overstretched and chocker full of outdated equipment bar the odd new bit.

US combat power(based largely on combat experienced veterans of 15 years of war) is declining due to war aged equipment, aggressive political interference to destroy the most respected US institution, declining economic ability to support it, and natural retirement.

Saudi military fulfills two roles:

1. Petro dollar recycling

2. Regime continuity in the form of the Saudi National Guard

The Saudi military has a lot of shiny expensive world class kit, but is largely incapable of operating or maintaining it without massive external support.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Sounds like Saudi is cutting off diplomatic relations with Iran after the embassy break-in and Fire.

I wonder who gave the approval for the Saudi embassy hit?

Its telling in a few ways:

1. IF it were opportunistic and spontaneous, then it's very poor security on the part of the Iranians.

2. IF approved(I'd say there's a well over 50% chance) I would doubt it was done with a whole of government approach(meaning elected government).

I'd suspect an IRGC operation as they have such a heavy amount of control of Iran's security and now political/economic apparatus.

A bit like Pakistan's ISI and military industrial complex with far outsized influence and control and unilateral operations.

Looks quite bad for Iran, but Saudi's execution machine shouldn't go without notice either.

-----

What will be most interesting would be a fly on the wall of paid(by Saudi) western media information operations to portray Iran as evil and Saudi as the good guy.

If I were Iran, I'd be trying to set up Saudi security forces on video slaughtering rioters for "golden memes" and fund a social media campaign to vilify them to change the narrative.

If I were the Saudi regime, I would spend whatever it takes to implement the most Orwellian/Stasi mobile device surveillance and control capability possible as it is THE platform that will force multiply its collapse.

I think the Saudis are taking a page out of Saddam's playbook when he offered to kill Khomeini in the 1970s to prevent his rise to power.

The Shah didn't take Saddam up on his offer.

Maybe Saudi is trying to avoid the mistakes of the Shah much as China is trying to avoid the mistakes of the Soviet Union.

Not a good comparison, but a bit relevant, and likely less succesful(for Saudi).

The Ayatollah distributed cassette tapes to pave the path to victory.

Nearly 40 years later the velocity of revolution and insurrection is accelerating.

I also suspect Saudi will be taking a page out of the Iranian playbook in crushing social movements.

But the key difference is that in Iran, it was only the intellectuals, educated, liberals who supported the easily crushed election protests.

Educated liberals dont quickly, easily, or in sufficient mass move towards direct action and violence as found in Libya when the educated digerati connecte with Libyan soccer gangs(like UK/EU violent soccer fan gangs) as their "translation layer" for direct physical action on the streets.

Iran never had that due to its protest demographics so conditions for a revolutionary fire were quickly and easily extinguished.

Libyan activists developed an effective partnership.

I suspect conditions in Saudi among the literalist Sunni working class and the suppressed Shia minority are conducive to far more easily spark a raging civil/social forest fire that will only be contained by mass genocide.

I've posited my thoughts on Saudi before having potential to be like a Khmer Rouge level of genocide fuelled by unlimited real wealth lying under the potential for oceans of blood.

I also reckon the sooner and the harsher the Saudis respond the better for regime continuity purposes.

We are already starting to see it.

[GRG55]

Re: Temperature's Rising. As is the Pressure

Putin's military is incredibly overstretched and chocker full of outdated equipment bar the odd new bit.

US combat power(based largely on combat experienced veterans of 15 years of war) is declining due to war aged equipment, aggressive political interference to destroy the most respected US institution, declining economic ability to support it, and natural retirement.

Saudi military fulfills two roles:

1. Petro dollar recycling

2. Regime continuity in the form of the Saudi National Guard

The Saudi military has a lot of shiny expensive world class kit, but is largely incapable of operating or maintaining it without massive external support.

We both know that the most dangerous enemy is the enemy within. That is why the Middle East tends to have armed forces that are fundamentally incompetent, but promoted to appear as national heroes towards which the populace should demonstrate both pride and respect (Saddam's much feared army is a good case study)

It is impossible to remain President for Life (or King) if your military is competent enough to organize against you. All the Ruling Families in the Middle East have one branch that are military and security trained (the other branch takes care of commercial affairs) sometimes in the USA, but most often Sandhurst. Most of the Ruling Family personal security arrangements in the region contain no nationals for a good reason.

[Woodsman]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

...I also reckon the sooner and the harsher the Saudis respond the better for regime continuity purposes. We are already starting to see it.

And how would you calibrate that? Greece 45, Indonesia 65, El Salvador/Guatemala 80s, somewhere in between?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

And how would you calibrate that? Greece 45, Indonesia 65, El Salvador/Guatemala 80s, somewhere in between?

Probably the most relevant might be Assad senior in Homa, Syria 1982.

It provided Syria 3 decades of time/space at the expense of sacking an entire city much like Ghengis Khan at Shahr e Gholgola(City of Screams) over 700 years ago.

If the House of Saud displays any real/tangible reform a la Perestroika it will inevitably lead to collapse at a much faster rate, and more importantly, the nasty demise of the Saudi Royal family and insiders along the lines of Gaddafi or Ceausescu.

I suspect the Saudi royal family will go medieval like Assad to protect those trillions.

Personally, I think the big questions surround the following:

1) Saudi control of social media and 1 to 1 and 1 to many communication, a la Khomeini cassette tapes in the 70's.

2) Western mass/social media narrative battle. Mass media is easier, just spend lots of money that the Saudis have. Social media is a lot harder as Iran has the potential to enlist fellow Saudi hating Russia's very broad and deep non-kinetic unconventional warfare propaganda.

3) Saudi ability to limit western media penetration of Saudi domestic crackdown.

So while it's safe to say the Saudis will go medieval, what I'm positing is that if they wish to retain power decisively and for the longest duration they will be better off going very brutal, big(albeit as quietly as discretely as possible to global media) and early along the lines of a Hama 1982.

Maybe we are seeing it now.

Mass executions(including key personalities)

Cutting off relations with Iran(and at least 1 point of Shia insurgent network support by IRGC thru diplomatic protection)

Mass bombing of Yemen(not that this will assist/benefit Saudi in any way)

I would not be surprised to hear growing rumours of regime death squads or if the threat immediate and existential I would think the possibility of mass arrests and forced deportation/migration a la post WWII Baltics and Ukraine by Stalin.

I believe that anything less than decisively brutal will further shorten the ultimately limited lifespan of the Saudi regime.

If the Iranians and their Russian allies(and fellow Saudi haters) are smart, they'll focus on western social media and try to recruit a few expat Saudis, including a few outer ring royals and females to fracture western tacit support and build opposition to the Saudi regime in western social media.

The advantage the Russian/Iranian alliance has is that they will be telling mostly the truth, and only need to poke the Saudis into an excessive existential response, record it, and market it.

[touchring]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I believe that anything less than decisively brutal will further shorten the ultimately limited lifespan of the Saudi regime.

I will agree on this, better Al Saud Arabia than the Islamic State of Arabia, but not knowing much about the Middle East, just wondering if the same will eventually apply to Bahrain which hosts US troops.

Putin's military is incredibly overstretched and chocker full of outdated equipment bar the odd new bit.

I wouldn't make that conclusion so quickly just based on just outdated equipment. Equipment is does not alone determine who wins the war. The Russians were more badly equipped in WWII than today but still won the Germans that had the best military hardware.

In my opinion, Russia has no strategic value other than using it as a fear factor. It is too vast to conquer and too difficult to hold. Therefore not worth the effort. However, as a fear factor, it is very useful because you can use it to scare Europe into submission.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I will agree on this, better Al Saud Arabia than the Islamic State of Arabia, but not knowing much about the Middle East, just wondering if the same will eventually apply to Bahrain which hosts US troops.

Ive been to Qatar, but not to Bahrain.

GRG55 would probably be able to offer more, but I'll suggest this:

Bahrain is linked by artificial bridge to Saudi.

In recent years, despite massive US military presence in Bahrain, the US did nothing tangible when Shia went nuts in Bahrain a while's back.

The Saudis(or their Pakistani proxies) crossed the bridge and cracked skulls.

I'm pretty sure the Saudis didn't bother even notifying the US and acted unilaterally as an indicator of US disengagement and a shift in regional geopolitics.

-----

What I would be hoping for any/every regional country is an Arabic flavoured Lee Kuan Yew, or the progression of South Korean strong men.

A dictatorship in everything but name, but with some checks to limit excessive power, a focus on quality of life, standard of living and reasonable human rights(limits to excessive human rights abuse) improvements over time.

Democracy in the region(except Iran of all places if the theocracy got dropped, in my opinion) would likely be hostile towards the West in my opinion.

Benevolent strong men with checks on power.

But even that would cause problems in 25-50 years of success.

How much competitive energy/food/resource consumption would that have?

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Sounds like Saudi is cutting off diplomatic relations with Iran after the embassy break-in and Fire.

I wonder who gave the approval for the Saudi embassy hit?

This sort of thing doesn't usually happen in a planned or ordered way. The protocol for Embassy security is that the sovereign territory perimeter is the external wall of the main embassy building itself. The compound/yard and even the steps to the door(s) are the territory of the host government and security of same is the responsibility of and provided by that host government. Even the USA Embassies in the region follow this protocol, with Marine Corp. specialists providing the security within the building interior and the host government providing or arranging security for the rest of the compound.

When the emotions of a public demonstration get out of hand it presents a serious dilemma because one now often has nationals performing security trying to prevent their countrymen from entering a foreign embassy compound. Will they use lethal force? Not likely. Will the Embassy nation's ambassador or security head order live ammunition and shoot the citizens of the host government before they cross the building boundary? Imagine the diplomatic incident that would precipitate. Very difficult decisions during a fast evolving dynamic.

The USA Embassy compound in Bahrain was trashed and burned when a public demonstration, after Friday prayers, against the US invasion of Iraq (Gulf War II) turned violent. Despite this being post-9/11, the USA still did not regard Bahrain as a high threat jurisdiction and had not installed the customary anti-climb devices on the compound perimeter wall during construction. This allowed protesters to more easily enter the compound, with minimal resistance from the local security detail, who did not expect what was coming. They then set fire to anything in the compound that would burn, including a large number of vehicles. They did not breech the Embassy building perimeter, but the live ammunition order from the Ambassador was close to being issued apparently (I was the MENA region MD with an USA company at the time and therefore had access to the Embassy).

-----

What will be most interesting would be a fly on the wall of paid(by Saudi) western media information operations to portray Iran as evil and Saudi as the good guy.

If I were Iran, I'd be trying to set up Saudi security forces on video slaughtering rioters for "golden memes" and fund a social media campaign to vilify them to change the narrative.

If I were the Saudi regime, I would spend whatever it takes to implement the most Orwellian/Stasi mobile device surveillance and control capability possible as it is THE platform that will force multiply its collapse.

I think the Saudis are taking a page out of Saddam's playbook when he offered to kill Khomeini in the 1970s to prevent his rise to power.

The Shah didn't take Saddam up on his offer.

Maybe Saudi is trying to avoid the mistakes of the Shah much as China is trying to avoid the mistakes of the Soviet Union.

Not a good comparison, but a bit relevant, and likely less succesful(for Saudi).

The Ayatollah distributed cassette tapes to pave the path to victory.

Nearly 40 years later the velocity of revolution and insurrection is accelerating.

I also suspect Saudi will be taking a page out of the Iranian playbook in crushing social movements.

But the key difference is that in Iran, it was only the intellectuals, educated, liberals who supported the easily crushed election protests.

Educated liberals dont quickly, easily, or in sufficient mass move towards direct action and violence as found in Libya when the educated digerati connecte with Libyan soccer gangs(like UK/EU violent soccer fan gangs) as their "translation layer" for direct physical action on the streets.

Iran never had that due to its protest demographics so conditions for a revolutionary fire were quickly and easily extinguished.

Libyan activists developed an effective partnership.

I suspect conditions in Saudi among the literalist Sunni working class and the suppressed Shia minority are conducive to far more easily spark a raging civil/social forest fire that will only be contained by mass genocide.

I've posited my thoughts on Saudi before having potential to be like a Khmer Rouge level of genocide fuelled by unlimited real wealth lying under the potential for oceans of blood.

I also reckon the sooner and the harsher the Saudis respond the better for regime continuity purposes.

We are already starting to see it.

I believe one of Saudi Arabia's greatest fears is the establishment of a Shia militia, along the lines of Hezbollah, on their doorstep in Bahrain. Bahrain has always been a more open society than Saudi Arabia. Even intermarriage between Shia and Sunni was generally accepted (in Saudi that would be like a black man marrying a white woman in 1930s Mississippi). Bahrain also has a large professional expatriate population that is well connected commercially and politically, and not restricted in its movements about the country. Much more difficult for GCC monarchies to control the outcome in Bahrain compared to the ability of the al-Saud regime to turn their Kingdom into an even greater police state than it is already.

You will understand what I write next, but for many here on this forum I find it is truly difficult to describe to people who have not had the dubious privilege of experiencing what a police state is like. Your comparison with Hafez al-Assad and Hama in 1982 is interesting; the potential for something similar cannot be regarded as mere conjecture. The longer term outcome in Syria from that situation is less understood. I made several business related trips to Syria in 2001 and 2002, including two with senior members of one of the Gulf Ruling Familis. For this Canadian, with his sheltered multicultural upbringing, the experiences were surreal. Syria was a police state at a level unrivalled by any of the GCC at the time, including Saudi Arabia. We were tailed everywhere, our hosts (the Ministry of Oil) were quite open to discuss during meetings the following mornigns where we had been, what shops, what purchases, what we ate, and so forth - clearly they wanted us to know they knew. No business related or other private conversations were held in hotel rooms, on telephones including mobiles, or anywhere other than the lobby right next to a running fountain (sitting on the ledge of the fountain pool away from any table or chair). And when we got back home the Shaikh's G-5 was swept for the inevitable bugs. I am not making any of this up.

I have been in contact over this New Year season sending good wishes to friends and associates in the GCC. Those that are sending feedback are telling of an environment that bears no resemblance to the one I enjoyed when I moved there in 2000.

[touchring]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

What I would be hoping for any/every regional country is an Arabic flavoured Lee Kuan Yew, or the progression of South Korean strong men.


A dictatorship in everything but name, but with some checks to limit excessive power, a focus on quality of life, standard of living and reasonable human rights(limits to excessive human rights abuse) improvements over time.

The so called "benevolent dictatorship" is based on Confucianism (which is atheist), and is not something which Arabs can understand so I do not think it will work in the Middle East, not to mention, Islamic culture is very different.

The relationship between the Confucian King and the people is that of parent and children. The relationship goes both ways, and both parties have their duties, it is not a one-sided deal like in Syria or Saudi Arabia or Saddam Iraq where the king can slaughter anyone who disobeys at will and without mercy.

The Confucian system sounds good but is very difficult to implement in reality. It requires a very strong leader that is altruistic enough not to abuse his authority.

In my opinion, a constitutional monarchy system might work for the Middle East, where the King doesn't have absolute power but has the authority to abolish parliament and call for elections and has the power to veto any death penalties meted out a trigger happy government.

[astonas]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I'm pretty sure the Saudis didn't bother even notifying the US and acted unilaterally as an indicator of US disengagement and a shift in regional geopolitics.

Is it fair to say that the US is shifting from a kind of preferred-source arrangement with Saudi Arabia to a more competitive oil market, playing the house of Saud off of Iran?

I found this piece, which seems to be fairly well-researched. If it rings true here, perhaps a decent interpretation of recent events is to see the US's turn to Iran as a deliberate shift, intended to weaken the ability of any one party in the region to sponsor terrorism, as each tries to compete to be friendly with their customer. I'm uncertain of the long-term wisdom of such a move, and am curious to hear what others might think.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Is it fair to say that the US is shifting from a kind of preferred-source arrangement with Saudi Arabia to a more competitive oil market, playing the house of Saud off of Iran?

I found this piece, which seems to be fairly well-researched. If it rings true here, perhaps a decent interpretation of recent events is to see the US's turn to Iran as a deliberate shift, intended to weaken the ability of any one party in the region to sponsor terrorism, as each tries to compete to be friendly with their customer. I'm uncertain of the long-term wisdom of such a move, and am curious to hear what others might think.

I don't see a link between the geopolitics and the oil purchases.
Oil is fungible, a barrel from Suadia Arabia is the same as a barrel from Venezuela or one from Iran or one from Nigeria.
All oil producers sell oil into a global market and all oil buyers pull oil out of that market.