Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[jk]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

You can check out anytime you'd like but you can never leave...

we got ourselves out of syria [or putin did]. maybe we can invite the uk back into "the great game"....

or if we're lucky there will be another takeover by a russian-supported [can't say "communist" anymore] faction. come to think of it, iran has no love for the taliban and they're right next door, while the pakistanis - next to the other door- are supporting the taliban. if we could only get out of the middle....

ej's "fortress america[s]" theory is looking more and more attractive.

[GRG55]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

Early indications of the Syrian & Yemeni civil wars spilling over into the Eastern Province? Most of Saudi Arabia's oilfields are in the Eastern Province along the Persian Gulf, as are most of Saudi Arabia's Shias, who are the majority in that Province.

Saudi Arabia Shia attack: Five killed at Ashura event

17 October 2015
From the section Middle East

Five people have been killed and nine wounded in an attack on a Shia gathering hall in eastern Saudi Arabia, the interior ministry says.

The killings, in Saihat in Eastern Province on Friday, come two days after the start of Ashura commemorations, a holy occasion for Shia Muslims.

A group claiming links to Islamic State (IS) said it carried out the attack.

The interior ministry said a gunman opened fire at random before police intervened and shot the attacker dead.

Later, a group calling itself Islamic State-Bahrain State said that one of its "soldiers" had attacked "a Shia infidel temple" with an automatic weapon.

The group warned that "infidels will not be safe in the island of Mohammed".

Other, smaller attacks against the Shia community in the east of Saudi Arabia were also reported on Friday evening.

The minority Shia community in the kingdom is increasingly being targeted. Most live in the oil-rich east, and many complain of discrimination.

In May, IS said it had carried out a deadly bomb attack outside a Shia mosque in the city of Damman.

A week before, more than 20 people were killed in the village of al-Qadeeh when an IS suicide bomber struck during Friday prayers at a Shia mosque.

That attack was the first to be claimed by a Saudi branch of IS.

Hardline Sunnis regard Shia Muslims as heretics...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

It sounds like 2015 is already a banner year for public executions in Saudi Arabia.

Highest number since 1995, 20 year high I believe.

And that's before the unofficially official noises coming out in the last few days of a possible 50+ mass execution.

On the continuum of Perestroika on one end and Tiananmen on the other end it looks like Saudi is going with the harsher China option to prevent an Islamic fundamentalist Khmer Rouge.

Not unexpected.

As the Saudi regime responds increasingly more harshly, I wonder how US media and universities will respond?

I wonder how it will compare to the decade leading up to the fall of the Shah in Iran?

Universities in the U.S. like Berkeley had anti-Shah protests quite a few years before his fall, and when did media coverage on Iranian unrest start and gain momentum in western media?

Despite the SAVAK, Iran was accessible to western media. Saudi is not accessible, but social media democratisation can negate the non permissive nature of Saudi to western mass media.

-----

While the world is distracted by the implosion of Syria, the clash of fading empires, and the economic refugees flooding the EU with the odd violent infiltrator, Yemen seems to be getting pushed out of the headlines, when from a global energy disruption risk standpoint, it should rate much higher.

The UAE is now deeply involved in the Yemen conflict, sucked in along with Saudi Arabia.

Instability in Yemen represents an existential threat to the Saudi regime as it provides an effective base of operations for undermining Saudi Arabia and the GCC.

UAE, much like their GCC peers, are quick to leverage foreigners to do their dirty work.

While much has been said of "mercenary" work in Iraq and Afghanistan that has been inaccurate(mercenary as warfighter) the same cannot be said of the fight in Yemen.

UAE has been very aggressively recruiting Columbian professional soldiers to actively fight on its behalf in Yemen, based on the recent institutional history of hiring Columbians(and other foreign nationals) to form the core of a trusted 2 battalion regime continuity force and rapid reaction force, as originally contracted to Eric Prince's UAE company.

I do not believe Eric Prince is still involved as he seems to have moved onto Africa partnering with China.

So while a lot of outsourced military support over the last 14 years has been inaccurately defined as "mercenary" in the traditional sense, in Yemen it's completely accurate.

Which brings things full circle with Nasser's Egyptian invasion of Yemen back in the 1960's, where the new-ish Saudi regime funded UK WWII special operations veterans as mercenaries to disrupt Egypt in Yemen with the quiet approval of the UK government of the day.

But I think one of the key differences between then and now is the broader array of players and interests, making for a more complex and complicated problem with less predictable outcome.

[GRG55]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

It sounds like 2015 is already a banner year for public executions in Saudi Arabia.

Highest number since 1995, 20 year high I believe.

And that's before the unofficially official noises coming out in the last few days of a possible 50+ mass execution.

On the continuum of Perestroika on one end and Tiananmen on the other end it looks like Saudi is going with the harsher China option to prevent an Islamic fundamentalist Khmer Rouge.

Not unexpected.

As the Saudi regime responds increasingly more harshly, I wonder how US media and universities will respond?

I wonder how it will compare to the decade leading up to the fall of the Shah in Iran?

Universities in the U.S. like Berkeley had anti-Shah protests quite a few years before his fall, and when did media coverage on Iranian unrest start and gain momentum in western media?

Despite the SAVAK, Iran was accessible to western media. Saudi is not accessible, but social media democratisation can negate the non permissive nature of Saudi to western mass media.

-----

While the world is distracted by the implosion of Syria, the clash of fading empires, and the economic refugees flooding the EU with the odd violent infiltrator, Yemen seems to be getting pushed out of the headlines, when from a global energy disruption risk standpoint, it should rate much higher.

The UAE is now deeply involved in the Yemen conflict, sucked in along with Saudi Arabia.

Instability in Yemen represents an existential threat to the Saudi regime as it provides an effective base of operations for undermining Saudi Arabia and the GCC.

UAE, much like their GCC peers, are quick to leverage foreigners to do their dirty work.

While much has been said of "mercenary" work in Iraq and Afghanistan that has been inaccurate(mercenary as warfighter) the same cannot be said of the fight in Yemen.

UAE has been very aggressively recruiting Columbian professional soldiers to actively fight on its behalf in Yemen, based on the recent institutional history of hiring Columbians(and other foreign nationals) to form the core of a trusted 2 battalion regime continuity force and rapid reaction force, as originally contracted to Eric Prince's UAE company.

I do not believe Eric Prince is still involved as he seems to have moved onto Africa partnering with China.

So while a lot of outsourced military support over the last 14 years has been inaccurately defined as "mercenary" in the traditional sense, in Yemen it's completely accurate.

Which brings things full circle with Nasser's Egyptian invasion of Yemen back in the 1960's, where the new-ish Saudi regime funded UK WWII special operations veterans as mercenaries to disrupt Egypt in Yemen with the quiet approval of the UK government of the day.

But I think one of the key differences between then and now is the broader array of players and interests, making for a more complex and complicated problem with less predictable outcome.

As I have posted before, in all my years following Middle East politics starting with the 1973 oil embargo, I have not seen a time when the threat of deposition of the Saudi (and other) Gulf monarchies was higher.

And if the unthinkable happens the resulting exodus will make the current refugee migration look like a warm up exercise.

Commentators sometimes try to examine where was "the start" of the current difficulties. What is happening today is simply the latest manifestation on a very long continuum.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

As I have posted before, in all my years following Middle East politics starting with the 1973 oil embargo, I have not seen a time when the threat of deposition of the Saudi (and other) Gulf monarchies was higher.

And if the unthinkable happens the resulting exodus will make the current refugee migration look like a warm up exercise.

Commentators sometimes try to examine where was "the start" of the current difficulties. What is happening today is simply the latest manifestation on a very long continuum.

With Qatar and Saudi Arabia pushing and pulling financial levers in Egypt to keep them afloat(albeit erratically on the part of Qatar it seems), what do you reckon are the chances of Saudi/Qatar forcing Egypt to start throwing military force into Yemen(the kitchen sink)?

As I undestand it, there are Pakistani personnel in Yemen. Unsure if they are serve on behalf of Pakistan, seconded to Saudi, or just more real mercenaries.

It sounds like Pakistan may have a similar relationship to Saudi as Cuba has to Venezuela(the former trade specialist human capital in exchange for the latter's energy).

----------

What will be interesting is not only monitoring the flow and movement of economy refugees(and infiltrators into EU, 75+% fighting age males) out of the former Syrian black hole, but also the flow and movement of GCC royals, wealthy enablers, and affluent middle class.

I'd be interested in seeing analysis on long term visa issuance to "5 Eyes" and EU countries for => GCC middle class.

Unexplained spikes could be a significant anecdotal indicator.

I don't see the potential for a fast collapse(any comparison to say South Vietnam's "Black April" would be a big mistake).

But it does seem to bear some similarities to Shah-era Iran:

*Close relationship with US, especially massive weapons related petro dollar recycling programs
*Increasingly detached leadership and enablers focused on plundering and unwilling/unable to get their own hands dirty
*Renting instead of leading public allegiance and support
*Quiet realpolitik relationships with Israel that would infuriate the masses if widely known
*increasingly harsh internal security operations

Differences:

Despite the the heavy hand of SAVAK(much like the Soviet Union's domestic division of the KGB) the Shah went down the path of Persian Peristroika, and that failed even more miserably than for the Soviet Union.

I'd guess the chances at zero of Saudi attempting a Sunni Petristroika.

i'd guess 100% the Saudi regime will use an endless supply of violence as long as the money flows to pay for the mercenaries getting their hands dirty.

The Shah's Iran was overtly propping up US companies like Grumman at risk of collapse, and there were decades long financial entanglements of Iranian capital in the U.S. post Shah, I would guess GCC funds in the U.S./UK would be an ocean of liquidity today compared to the previous generation's Iranian liquidity lakes.

----

Let's hope there is no modern equivalent of the Grand Mosque Seizure.

[santafe2]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

And if the unthinkable happens the resulting exodus will make the current refugee migration look like a warm up exercise.

I agree, we're just warming up. Various disruptive issues will make the 21st Century the century of the refugee.

[GRG55]

Re: Hotel Kabulfornia

With Qatar and Saudi Arabia pushing and pulling financial levers in Egypt to keep them afloat(albeit erratically on the part of Qatar it seems), what do you reckon are the chances of Saudi/Qatar forcing Egypt to start throwing military force into Yemen(the kitchen sink)?

As I undestand it, there are Pakistani personnel in Yemen. Unsure if they are serve on behalf of Pakistan, seconded to Saudi, or just more real mercenaries.

It sounds like Pakistan may have a similar relationship to Saudi as Cuba has to Venezuela(the former trade specialist human capital in exchange for the latter's energy).

----------

Egypt matters. A LOT. More than Saudi Arabia in the larger context.

A perusal of this old thread, including some of your old posts, is an interesting chronology of the unfolding of events starting at the very end of 2007.

How the USA behaved, and what happened to Mubarak as a result, hasn't been lost on any GCC Ruling Family. They know they can't defend themselves, they know they can't depend on the USA, and they know they haven't secured a substitute for the USA. Challenging position to be in, non?

What will be interesting is not only monitoring the flow and movement of economy refugees(and infiltrators into EU, 75+% fighting age males) out of the former Syrian black hole, but also the flow and movement of GCC royals, wealthy enablers, and affluent middle class.

I'd be interested in seeing analysis on long term visa issuance to "5 Eyes" and EU countries for => GCC middle class.

Unexplained spikes could be a significant anecdotal indicator.

I don't see the potential for a fast collapse(any comparison to say South Vietnam's "Black April" would be a big mistake).

But it does seem to bear some similarities to Shah-era Iran:

*Close relationship with US, especially massive weapons related petro dollar recycling programs
*Increasingly detached leadership and enablers focused on plundering and unwilling/unable to get their own hands dirty
*Renting instead of leading public allegiance and support
*Quiet realpolitik relationships with Israel that would infuriate the masses if widely known
*increasingly harsh internal security operations

Differences:

Despite the the heavy hand of SAVAK(much like the Soviet Union's domestic division of the KGB) the Shah went down the path of Persian Peristroika, and that failed even more miserably than for the Soviet Union.

I'd guess the chances at zero of Saudi attempting a Sunni Petristroika.

i'd guess 100% the Saudi regime will use an endless supply of violence as long as the money flows to pay for the mercenaries getting their hands dirty.

The Shah's Iran was overtly propping up US companies like Grumman at risk of collapse, and there were decades long financial entanglements of Iranian capital in the U.S. post Shah, I would guess GCC funds in the U.S./UK would be an ocean of liquidity today compared to the previous generation's Iranian liquidity lakes.

----

Let's hope there is no modern equivalent of the Grand Mosque Seizure.

The wealthy and influential in the Middle East have always had their escape valves - villas in Geneva or the south of France, flats in Belgravia and the now ubiquitous private jet. The second tier in Arab society, the high income working professionals, have concentrated since the start of the "Arab Spring" on moving their families to the "safe havens" of Dubai or Abu Dhabi, and commuting from Cairo, Kuwait City, Beirut, Damascus and even Manama.

Even when I lived in the Gulf 15 years ago my security advisor (ex-SAS) insisted on Mrs. GRG55 and I having US$ in the home safe, a "bug-out bag" including medical supplies always packed and ready to go, open unrestricted full fare 1st Class tickets on British Airways, and water/provisions ready to toss into the Land Cruiser if the Saudi Causeway was the only route left open.

In the aftermath of 9/11 there was a tremendous outflow of Arab money from the USA, much of which was repatriated to the Gulf and helped fuel the massive property bubble that occurred there after Gulf War 2. There was much concern about accounts being frozen and demands for personal information from US authorities regarding the ownership of funds after 9/11. Some of that may have returned since, but wealthy Arabs do not see the USA as a desirable or welcoming destination in comparison with Europe.

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

whither or wither?

my favorite contrarian take on what's happening in the middle east, from scott adams' blog

President Obama: Wizard or Failure?

Posted October 6th, 2015 @ 11:50am in #ISIS #trump

---

Russia is moving into Old Syria. Iran already owns the parts of Old Iraq that ISIS and the Kurds do not. Israel fears that the nuclear deal with Iran is a mistake of unthinkable proportions.
The data suggests that President Obama is a total failure when it comes to the Middle East.
Or… he is one of the most gifted wizards of persuasion and strategy our generation has ever seen.
The data fits both interpretations. You already know the interpretation that says Obama failed. Allow me to give you another interpretation – one that isn’t necessarily true – but happens to fit the data.
And the fun part is that we can make predictions based on both filters and see which one does the best job of explaining our reality. Just for fun. Don’t get your opinions on world politics from cartoonists.
The Master Wizard Hypothesis says there are people so skilled in the art of persuasion that they control world events while sometimes pretending they are inept, to cover their tracks.
The Master Wizard filter says that President Obama – magnificent bastard and Commander in Chief – just suckered Russia and Iran into the quicksand while taking The United States out of an endless and unwinnable fight.
And … doomed ISIS in the process.
The United States can’t defeat ISIS militarily because doing so would require killing too many civilians. Russia and Iran will have fewer problems in that regard because they control their media and their leaders don’t need to ask permission.
And let’s say you want to build a virtual wall around ISIS to contain them. You would need a substantial military power to guard the coast.
You need Russia.
Right where they are deploying.
The Master Wizard filter says President Obama has a winning plan for eradicating ISIS at the lowest cost for Americans. America’s frenemies have now encircled ISIS, and the American media with their freedom of the press will not be there to watch what happens next.
ISIS is reportedly planting landmines around captured cities to keep the civilian population from escaping. They expected the United States to avoid bombing population centers.
They were right.
But they they did not expect the United States to turn over the fight to Russia and Iran.

ISIS is done.
Unfortunately, so is the civilian population in ISIS-held territory. But living under ISIS probably isn’t much of a life either. And I have heard no one suggest a more humane solution.
The Master Wizard filter says President Obama either created this perfect situation or recognized the opportunity and encouraged it.
That would be totally bad-ass.
The Master Wizard filter also says Iran and the United States are cooperating behind the scenes and getting more comfortable as allies. In the long run, Iran was going to get a nuke if it wanted one. A Master Wizard of Persuasion would seek to keep his enemies close, where persuasion works best. Distance and non-contact are the enemies of persuasion. According to the Master Wizard filter, building an active engagement with Iran, combined with skillful persuasion, reduces risk. (Only a Master Wizard could feel confident in that plan.)

I’m not saying the Master Wizard interpretation of reality is true. I’m just saying the data fits the interpretation. We shall see what the future holds.
Donald Trump, another skilled deal-maker and persuader, also favors walling off ISIS territory to strangle them. In Trump’s case there is also a branding benefit when you define a border. One side can be TERRIBLE while the other is FABULOUS.
Update: Iran’s Supreme Leaders banned further negotiatingwith the United States because he says we are trying to “influence” Iran. Have you ever heard language like that before?

if i'm not mistaken, adams' has been predicting a trump win since about august. just sayin'.

edit: here's the link, posted 8/13!

then, on 8/24: "My updated prediction is that Trump will win the general election by a large margin. (Prior prediction was a small margin.) "

this is looking more and more prescient.

[santafe2]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

if i'm not mistaken, adams' has been predicting a trump win since about august. just sayin'.

edit: here's the link, posted 8/13!

then, on 8/24: "My updated prediction is that Trump will win the general election by a large margin. (Prior prediction was a small margin.) "

this is looking more and more prescient.

jk, Trump has about 10% of the voting population backing him. They're 99% anglo, old, racist, misogynistic and scared to death. There is no world where Trump gets more than 30% in a general election.

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

jk, Trump has about 10% of the voting population backing him. They're 99% anglo, old, racist, misogynistic and scared to death. There is no world where Trump gets more than 30% in a general election.

i don't support him, but i'm not sure i agree with your analysis either.

it looks like we're in a replay of the 1930's, kind of 1930's-lite. the great recession instead of the great depression. sluggish recovery. international tensions over systems and borders in europe, regional proxy wars [the spanish civil war back then], ethnic/religious tensions [not just sunni/shia, also e.g. the turkmen enclave in syria being treated like the sudetenland], the rise of right wing nationalists/populists [marine le pen's national front, nigel farage's ukip, whatever-the-guy's-name-is in hungary].

and don't forget deflation and beggar thy neighbor currency devaluations.

you know, the first time as tragedy, and the second time as farce.

[vt]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

A bit more than 30% but he won't beat Clinton.

RCP Average

11/15 - 12/6

--

--

47.0

43.7

Clinton +3.3

But Rubio and Carson can:

RCP Average	11/15 - 12/6	--	--	46.8	45.2	Rubio +1.6

RCP Average	11/15 - 12/6	--	--	46.2	45.8	Carson +0.4

A Rubio-Carson ticket would cause huge problems for the Democrats.

[shiny!]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

A Rubio-Carson ticket would cause huge problems for the Democrats.

And for me, too!

(shutting up now)

[vt]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

Not endorsing either one Shiny. Both lead Clinton; however its a long........way until the election.

Rubio does bring a foreign affairs committee background and the ticket may appeal to Latinos and blacks to some extent.

Its simply the least desired Republican ticket if one were a Democrat candidate; more difficult to beat.

[santafe2]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

i don't support him, but i'm not sure i agree with your analysis either.

it looks like we're in a replay of the 1930's, kind of 1930's-lite. the great recession instead of the great depression. sluggish recovery. international tensions over systems and borders in europe, regional proxy wars [the spanish civil war back then], ethnic/religious tensions [not just sunni/shia, also e.g. the turkmen enclave in syria being treated like the sudetenland], the rise of right wing nationalists/populists [marine le pen's national front, nigel farage's ukip, whatever-the-guy's-name-is in hungary].

and don't forget deflation and beggar thy neighbor currency devaluations.

you know, the first time as tragedy, and the second time as farce.

The voting electorate in the US will not elect a nativist in the 21st Century after electing our first black president. My 30% is an obvious embellishment of the outcome in a two person race but he's unelectable. At the executive level you should be able to see a trend before we switch sides and go in the opposite direction. See Churchill's famous quote about the US. Also, see Harrison, Tyler, Polk, Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce and Buchanan to get a sense of how resilient our structure is to weak and horrible governance.

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

i'm entertained by a cartoonist being more accurate in his predictions [so far] than all the pundits who thought trump would be gone by now. it remains to be seen whether his longer term prediction comes to pass.

i'm envious of your ability to see the future.