Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

definitely better pr than putting all the assets in the name of the first lady herself, let alone the name of the president himself.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Afghanistan Faces "Massive Economic Constriction" After US Withdrawal

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/1...-us-withdrawal

Decent article that touches on some of the major problems here in Afghanistan.

Here's the problem as I see it.

Genuine government income is circa $1.5-$2 billion, spending is circa $3-$3.5 billion which is unsustainable

Total spending taking into account foreign aid is circa $14-$16 billion, but the foreign aid, while it will not end, is likely to quickly collapse moving forward in the next 12-24 months.

A crash in foreign aid combined with a high likelihood energy price crisis in the next few years will have a staggering impact on the country.

I'm not yet convinced Afghanistan is going to fall a la US backed South Vietnam in 75 or Soviet backed Afghanistan in 92, but I could see the country imploding into semi-autonomous, self governing-ish geographical regions.

But it is quite interesting to see the parallels between South Vietnam in 75 and Afghanistan in 92.

Both of them lasted approximately 3 years post majority Superpower physical withdraw.

But the very interesting parallel between Vietnam and Afghanistan is what happened after Superpower FINANCIAL withdraw.

Vietnam lasted maybe 6 months of so after US Congress made very deep cuts in aid, and ultimately cut South Vietnam off.....combined with previous damage caused by Energy Crisis.

Afghanistan lasted 3 months or so after the Soviets cut them off with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

There's a new book out called Black April that covers the period from US combat force withdraw in 72-73 up through April 75 when South Vietnam collapsed to North Vietnamese invasion. Hopefully it includes a good chunk of the flow and cut to aid to South Vietnam over that period. Maybe it might offer some interesting parallels with how things may develop here in Afghanistan in the coming couple of years.

[Polish_Silver]

Vietnam

There's a new book out called Black April that covers the period from US combat force withdraw in 72-73 up through April 75 when South Vietnam collapsed to North Vietnamese invasion. Hopefully it includes a good chunk of the flow and cut to aid to South Vietnam over that period. Maybe it might offer some interesting parallels with how things may develop here in Afghanistan in the coming couple of years.

I have often wondered about this. The soviet union was supporting North Vietnam the whole time, right? Not with Soviet soldiers, but weapons and resources. And South Vietnam collapsed after the US withdrew aid.

We had no business getting involved in the first place. But, if the US had continued aid, (but no US soldiers) could South Vietnam have contined for a few years longer?

The North Vietnamese government did not exactly endear itself to it's citizens.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Vietnam

I have often wondered about this. The soviet union was supporting North Vietnam the whole time, right? Not with Soviet soldiers, but weapons and resources. And South Vietnam collapsed after the US withdrew aid.

We had no business getting involved in the first place. But, if the US had continued aid, (but no US soldiers) could South Vietnam have contined for a few years longer?

The North Vietnamese government did not exactly endear itself to it's citizens.

The Soviets didn't deploy combat troops to North Vietnam, but they did deploy a significant number of advisors possibly as many as 10,000 at a stretch....with the greatest number possibly during the 73-75 time frame.

As I understand it, the Soviets main effort was assisting with North Vietnamese Air Defense.

There were also Chinese, East German, and even Cuban personnel reportedly deployed to North Vietnam for various roles, but as best I can tell, non-combat roles.....more along the lines of advisory, liaison, training, combat support.

South Vietnam had a lot more than just the US, with VERY significant contribution from South Korea as well as Australia/New Zealand.

To me, I'm not interested in "refighting" the Vietnam War......but I am particularly interested in how the overall economic climate of the time(OPEC Embargo, recession, etc) impacted on both the decision making process(fickle Congress cutting aid) and the end result.

But to answer the question, I think there is a strong chance South Vietnam would have still fallen since the collective political will was far stronger in North Vietnam and it's support network compared to South Vietnam.

There were some major failures on the part of South Vietnamese political and military leadership in 73-75 that were entirely avoidable which could have added significantly to South Vietnam's life span.

But I'm mostly interested in any relevant poltical/economic parallels between 73-75 Vietnam and 89-92 Afghanistan in order to better understand the likely future of 2014+ Afghanistan.

It certainly seems like 2014+ Afghanistan is likely to see a significant spending/aid cut that could potentially parallel the lead up to 75 Vietnam and 92 Afghanistan.

I'm guessing increased economic pain felt in the US/EU is likely to accelerate the decline of aid to Afghanistan, and that China and India will not bridge the gap enough to prevent a high risk of serious destabilization.

My amateur guess is economic shock/depression(from fast declining aid combined with inability to ramp of tax base) combined with poor security/governance is going make for some very trying times here in Afghanistan.

I know the Chinese and to a lesser extent India are working hard to extract resources(CNPC is supposedly going to be pumping 25,000 barrels a day by 2014), but from reading GRG55s posts emphasizing both cost of recovery and security/stability/rule of law I wonder if Afghanistan might be a bit like a solid gold moon. Even if it has a reported $1 trillion in natural resources, you still have to extract it and get it to market....and not get blown up in the process.

I wonder if the place is cursed with natural resource wealth too expense to recover.

I wouldn't think a Rio Tinto focused on shareholder return would ever be here due to the risks, whereas a state backed and politically motivated natural resource company may see it as a strategic imperative.

But yeah...the reason why I threw up that Black April book is not for what happened in the military arena but what happened in the political and particularly the economic arena which has seen both prior examples, and the pending one see a sharp economic contraction.

I'm ALMOST tempted to throw Syria into the mix what with their GDP and currency collapse as well.

Maybe Egypt to a far, far lesser extent as well.

[Polish_Silver]

anybody in Afghanistan?

lakedaemonian,

Are you actually in Afghanistan?

I'd also like to get your thoughts on the stability of Iraq.
I am really against these kinds of US foreign interventions,

and I would like the country to learn that they don't work and
are a bad idea, for all concerned.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: anybody in Afghanistan?

lakedaemonian,

Are you actually in Afghanistan?

Yes

I'd also like to get your thoughts on the stability of Iraq.
I am really against these kinds of US foreign interventions,

and I would like the country to learn that they don't work and
are a bad idea, for all concerned.

I know about as much about as Iraq as the next person, but with having rad as much as I can and talked to as many subject matter experts as I can.

With Afghanistan, while I am repeat guest here, I'd still consider myself to be just an interested tourist.

I've been fortunate to be in the room when some influential people talking, both Afghan and non-Afghan. It's been pretty educational.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: anybody in Afghanistan?

I know about as much about as Iraq as the next person, but with having rad as much as I can and talked to as many subject matter experts as I can.

With Afghanistan, while I am repeat guest here, I'd still consider myself to be just an interested tourist.

I've been fortunate to be in the room when some influential people talking, both Afghan and non-Afghan. It's been pretty educational.

I once worked in the same room with an Afghani. It included the period of 9-11. He once told me the country took pride in never being conquered by an outside empire. And that was going back 3000 years or something. (parts of it were conquered, but I think never all the major cities and the bulk of the countryside)

[lakedaemonian]

Re: anybody in Afghanistan?

I once worked in the same room with an Afghani. It included the period of 9-11. He once told me the country took pride in never being conquered by an outside empire. And that was going back 3000 years or something. (parts of it were conquered, but I think never all the major cities and the bulk of the countryside)

Victory Day here is coming up in just less than a month.

I keep asking my local friends which victory over foreigners is being celebrated?

Afghanistan is known for having about a jillion holidays.....it' actually surprising they only have 1 victory day.....the joke is they might get another one on the calender in a few years time.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Rumor of Assad assassination.......but sounds like the early/premature rumors of Chavez's death...although I rate Assad's life expectancy a bit better than Chavez's

http://rt.com/news/syria-assad-death-rumor-762/

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Is Qatar abandoning Egypt?

As Egypt continues its descent into chaos, a major financial backer appears to be bowing out.

March 25, 2013 06:01

CAIRO, Egypt — Egypt’s economy is edging closer to collapse, and now there is one less place the government here can turn to for much-needed financial aid.

After promising $5 billion in soft loans and grants to help curb the Egyptian pound’s recent slide against the dollar, the tiny but vastly wealthy Gulf nation of Qatar is now backing off pledges of any further funding for the cash-strapped nation.

Observers saw Qatar and its royal family as initial backers of the Muslim Brotherhood government and its president, Mohamed Morsi, providing substantial funds and deposits to Egypt’s Central Bank. But earlier this month, the Qatari finance minister said there were no plans to inject more cash into Egypt’s flagging economy — crippled by a massive budget deficit...

...The apparent about-face suggests that even countries with a seemingly unwavering commitment to Egypt’s economic and political recovery are having second thoughts about deepening their involvement with the increasingly unstable nation.

Morsi’s authority is under threat as sporadic violence chips away at law and order and parliamentary elections are stalled. Rising prices and fuel shortages are contributing to ongoing unrest, and the government has yet to put forth a comprehensive economic program...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The Atlantic: April 2013: Modern King in the Arab Spring

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...middle/309270/

Interesting article.

The guy speaks with intelligence and some candor.....although I think he does a brilliant job of deflecting problems of his own making and with Jordan....

He is really caught in a vice amongst collapsing Syria, the deconstruction of Iraq, an Israel/Palestinian apartheid future, Egypt's economic implosion, the inevitable fall of the house of Saud, and Jordan's need to bob and weave through a future guaranteed to be filled with existential crisis after existential crisis.

It does not sound like it is "good to be the king."

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Hey GRG?

What's with the Qatari flip-flop?

Bailing out Egypt again......I thought just last week Qatar went cold on further(and even already promised but unfulfilled) bailouts?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...elp-egypt.html

http://www.thenational.ae/news/world...e-off-imf-loan

Would that be the US putting pressure on Qatar to be the regional "bailer-outer"?

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Egypt is in for trouble with or without the IMF

CAIRO | Tue Mar 5, 2013 10:51pm GMT

(Reuters) - Egypt is at risk of a "revolution of the hungry" two years after Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising, as food and energy prices will soar with or without an IMF deal.

Failure to get the $4.8 billion (£3.17 billion) loan or some other funding would have dire consequences: if Egypt keeps burning foreign currency at the rate it has done since the 2011 uprising, it will have none left in little more than a year.

But success would also stir Egypt's boiling social and political cauldron. In return for a lifeline, the International Monetary Fund will demand reform of a subsidy system that long ago became unaffordable.

The rich benefit most from the energy subsidies that exhaust state finances but the poor will suffer most if they go.

...

Egypt stalls on IMF terms, no deal seen: diplomats

CAIRO | Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:45pm EDT

(Reuters) - Egypt is stalling on the terms of a $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan to help it fight a deepening economic crisis, and no deal is likely while an IMF team is in Cairo, diplomats said on Sunday.

The IMF mission is set to leave on Tuesday after nearly two weeks of talks, and negotiations may continue on the sidelines of this week's IMF ministerial meetings in Washington, they said.

An IMF program could help stabilize Egypt's economy in the rocky transition to democracy since the 2011 overthrow of former President Hosni Mubarak, unlocking up to $15 billion in aid and investment to improve a dismal business climate.

But diplomats and politicians say Islamist President Mohamed Mursi had yet to endorse required tax increases and subsidy cuts that prompted him to halt implementation of an earlier IMF deal in December, two weeks after it was agreed in principle.

"The mission said it is waiting until now for the government to present some of the roadmap related to reforming the economic system," Abdullah Badran of the hardline Islamist Nour party told Reuters after meeting the IMF team...

...One Western diplomat said that after securing $5 billion in stopgap finance from Qatar and Libya last week, Egypt no longer felt the same sense of urgency to conclude the IMF negotiations.

"That seemed to be the way things were moving since the Libyan and Qatari announcements. You can imagine them reaching that conclusion; that they have reached a short-term fix, it means they are not that beholden to the IMF," he said.

Egypt's economy has deteriorated significantly since the November IMF agreement stalled. Tourism and investment have dwindled due to political turmoil in the Arab world's most populous country, where 40 percent of the 84 million citizens live on less than $2 a day.

The projected budget deficit has risen to around 11 percent in the fiscal year ending in June, foreign currency reserves have shrunk to less than needed to cover three months' imports, and the country is suffering fuel shortages.

The IMF delegation has been holding talks in Cairo since April 4 on a revised economic program that includes a gradual reform of costly fuel subsidies that swallow 21 percent of the budget or 12 percent of gross domestic product, and an extension of sales tax to fewer items than previously planned...

...Planning Minister Ashraf El-Araby warned last week that Egyptians would face worse austerity without an IMF deal. Ministers fear a long, hot summer of power cuts and possible fuel and food shortages that could spark unrest...

...The IMF mission, headed by Andreas Bauer, has spent the last few days meeting government and opposition political leaders to seek broad backing for implementation of the reform program.

Politicians who have participated in those sessions said there was wide acceptance of the need for a loan but less willingness to accept even relatively mild conditions attached...

...Diplomats said the IMF had softened its conditions compared with many other adjustment program, partly because the United States and European Union countries that are the Fund's biggest shareholders were determined to support Egypt.

"There is a sense that Egypt is too big to fail," one senior diplomat said. "The trouble is that the Egyptians know this, and think they can use it to escape the conditionality."

IMF studies show that most fuel subsidies benefit wealthier Egyptians rather than the poor, few of whom have cars...

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Now THIS is how to do a Reflationary Growth Plan!

(I wonder if the EU and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee is watching...)

U.S. to Announce $10 Billion Arms Sale in Middle East

Apr 19, 2013 1:02 PM MT

The Obama administration plans to announce an arms package to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates worth as much as $10 billion -- the centerpiece of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s visit to the countries next week, according to U.S. officials.

The arms sold to Israel also will include an unspecified number of V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor transport aircraft, air defense radar and KC-135 refueling tankers; the U.A.E. will probably buy 26 F-16 jet fighters, and the Persian Gulf nation as well as Saudi Arabia will each buy precision missiles, said the official who provided details on condition of not being named before the deal is announced.

The missiles being discussed include an unspecified number of the U.S. Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile, a new weapon being bought by the U.S. Navy, the official said. The missile, made by Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK), is capable of attacking ground radar used by countries fielding sophisticated integrated air defenses, such as Syria and Iran.

If the transaction goes through, it will be the first foreign sale of the V-22 tilt-rotor made by Boeing Co. (BA) and Textron Inc. (TXT)’s Bell Helicopter unit. The U.A.E. already ordered 80 F-16s made by Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) in the late 1990s, and Saudi Arabia operates a fleet of Boeing-made F-15 jets...

...Saudi Arabia has been a long-time buyer of U.S. armaments and operates a significant American-made arsenal.
In 2010, the U.S. announced a deal with Saudi Arabia valued at $30 billion that included 84 Boeing-made F-15 jets and 72 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters built by United Technologies Corp. (UTX)...

[astonas]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Now THIS is how to do a Reflationary Growth Plan!

(I wonder if the EU and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee is watching...)

U.S. to Announce $10 Billion Arms Sale in Middle East

Apr 19, 2013 1:02 PM MT

The Obama administration plans to announce an arms package to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates worth as much as $10 billion -- the centerpiece of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s visit to the countries next week, according to U.S. officials.

The arms sold to Israel also will include an unspecified number of V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor transport aircraft, air defense radar and KC-135 refueling tankers; the U.A.E. will probably buy 26 F-16 jet fighters, and the Persian Gulf nation as well as Saudi Arabia will each buy precision missiles, said the official who provided details on condition of not being named before the deal is announced.

The missiles being discussed include an unspecified number of the U.S. Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile, a new weapon being bought by the U.S. Navy, the official said. The missile, made by Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK), is capable of attacking ground radar used by countries fielding sophisticated integrated air defenses, such as Syria and Iran.

If the transaction goes through, it will be the first foreign sale of the V-22 tilt-rotor made by Boeing Co. (BA) and Textron Inc. (TXT)’s Bell Helicopter unit. The U.A.E. already ordered 80 F-16s made by Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) in the late 1990s, and Saudi Arabia operates a fleet of Boeing-made F-15 jets...

...Saudi Arabia has been a long-time buyer of U.S. armaments and operates a significant American-made arsenal.
In 2010, the U.S. announced a deal with Saudi Arabia valued at $30 billion that included 84 Boeing-made F-15 jets and 72 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters built by United Technologies Corp. (UTX)...

It looks like we've found something other than gold that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will gladly accept in exchange for oil! All we have to do now is flood the Middle East with advanced weaponry, and everything will be fine!

I mean, what could possibly go wrong?