Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

October 7, 2011, 1:28 pm

Protests Swell in Bahrain After Boy’s Death

Large numbers of people filled the streets west of Bahrain’s capital, Manama, on Friday as a funeral march for a 16-year-old boy — who activists said was killed by the police — grew into one of the largest demonstrations in the tiny Gulf nation in recent weeks.

Toward evening, activists said the police began using tear gas and sound grenades to disperse the crowd as protesters lingered on a central highway after the funeral procession had broken up. Al Jazeera reported on its live blog that at least one person had been severely injured in the face. There were also reports of gunfire, though it was unclear what type of bullets were being used.


The protest, among the largest in the country since the Sunni monarchy put down an uprising in March with the help of forces from neighboring Saudi Arabia, was touched off by the death on Thursday of the teenager, identified by authorities as Ahmed Jaber...

The situation continues to heat up....and Bahrain is one place where Saudi Arabia will keep intervening as it will not tolerate, right on its Shia-majority Eastern Province doorstep, the threat that a Shia-controlled Bahrain would represent. It's a political dynamic very similar to what we are witnessing the Gulf monarchies, Egypt and Turkey playing out in Syria, southern Lebanon, and now in Gaza.

The outcome may be very conservative Sunni-Muslim governments across the Levant, to blunt the growing influence of Iran and shield the Gulf state monarchies from pressures to institute democratic reforms. Some of what is going on inside Turkey at this moment is telling...

Bahrain bomb blasts kill two foreign workers

5 November 2012 Last updated at 11:03 GMT

Two foreign workers have been killed and a third seriously injured by bomb blasts in Bahrain, officials say.

Police said there were five explosions caused by home-made devices in two areas of the capital Manama on Monday.

One of the men died at the scene when he kicked a device in Gudaibiya. The second died in hospital after being injured by an explosion near a cinema.

A third explosion in Adliya injured another man working as a cleaner. Officials said the victims were Asian.

Their nationalities are not known, but the biggest expatriate communities in Bahrain are Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi.

According to the 2010 census, there are more than 660,000 foreign nationals living in Bahrain - the vast majority of whom are described as Asian - out of a total population of 1,235,000...

[FRED]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The situation continues to heat up....and Bahrain is one place where Saudi Arabia will keep intervening as it will not tolerate, right on its Shia-majority Eastern Province doorstep, the threat that a Shia-controlled Bahrain would represent. It's a political dynamic very similar to what we are witnessing the Gulf monarchies, Egypt and Turkey playing out in Syria, southern Lebanon, and now in Gaza.

The outcome may be very conservative Sunni-Muslim governments across the Levant, to blunt the growing influence of Iran and shield the Gulf state monarchies from pressures to institute democratic reforms. Some of what is going on inside Turkey at this moment is telling...

Bahrain bomb blasts kill two foreign workers

5 November 2012 Last updated at 11:03 GMT

Two foreign workers have been killed and a third seriously injured by bomb blasts in Bahrain, officials say.

Police said there were five explosions caused by home-made devices in two areas of the capital Manama on Monday.

One of the men died at the scene when he kicked a device in Gudaibiya. The second died in hospital after being injured by an explosion near a cinema.

A third explosion in Adliya injured another man working as a cleaner. Officials said the victims were Asian.

Their nationalities are not known, but the biggest expatriate communities in Bahrain are Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi.

According to the 2010 census, there are more than 660,000 foreign nationals living in Bahrain - the vast majority of whom are described as Asian - out of a total population of 1,235,000...

Thank you for the update.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Obama makes offer that Putin cannot refuse?

PressTV - Dec 2012 - West's stance on Syria dangerous: Russia FM
Reuters - Jan 2012 - Putin's Russia set against regime change in Syria
AFP - June 2012 - China, Russia ‘decisively against’ Syria regime change
CFR - July 2012 - Why Russia Won't Yield on Syria

and now a sudden change of heart:

15:04 20/12/2012 ALL NEWS
Russia not worried over Assad’s regime, it is worried over Syria’s future – Putin

MOSCOW, December 20 (Itar-Tass) —— Russia is not worried over the fate of the Assad regime in Syria but is worried over the future of that country, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a big news conference on Thursday.

“We are not concerned over the fate of the Assad regime. Syria is ripe for changes,” he stressed.

According to Putin, Russia is worried over future developments in Syria. “We do not want to see the opposition, after coming to power, start fighting against the [current] authorities that will go into opposition,” he said and stressed Russia stood for a solution that would stop the ongoing civil war in Syria. First, according to the Russian president, they should agree “how they are going to live further and only then change the existing order, not the other way round – to ruin everything and then see what to do.”

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Obama makes offer that Putin cannot refuse?

Maybe maybe not?

I haven't a clue......BUT I do know there is a rather substantial number of Russians living in Syria.

Estimates of 30,000 to maybe as high as 100,000+

Russia has maintained a strategic naval base at Tartus for over 40 years due to it's close economic and military relationship with both generations of the Assad regime.

My guess is that while Russia probably possesses a pretty enviable Human Intelligence understanding of the Syrian regime...probably better than any other foreign power, possibly more so than Israel.......it's diplomatic position is vulnerable to the rather large number of Russians caught right in the middle of it.

I'm thinking Russia's diplomatic communication for public consumption will be worth reading as well as it's discreet military movements will provide quite valuable indicators of WHEN Syria's regime will fall.

Because the bit you posted, to me, is a clear indicator that from Russia's public diplomatic communication perspective...it has clearly shifted from IF to WHEN.

But the WHEN could still be a good ways off(months to years).

In my amateur opinion, Russia would likely conduct a NEO(National Evacuation Order) to secure and evacuate Russian citizens and interests(harboring of key regime personnel/partners possibly) when the time comes. Probably a combination of evacuation by sea for the proletariat and evacuation by air for the intelligentsia/apparatchniks/people more equal than others......with the sea/air exfils secured by Russian military forces.

Something between Liberia 2002 and Saigon 1975.....but on YouTube.

Just my best guess.

It's worth having a read back on what occurred in Libya to get some sense of how civil war supported by external actors is conducted and it's measurable progression.

It can certainly be hard to read the tea leaves through all the chaos, but there is a pattern of progression to the discerning eye.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

What a coincidence:

http://en.rian.ru/world/20121224/178375936.html

MOSCOW, December 24 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Defense Ministry denied on Monday media rumors about sending commando units, air defense systems operators and military equipment to Syria.
“No decisions to send commandos on board Russian warships [to Syria] have been made,” Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told reporters in Moscow.
He added that Russia had not sent air defense systems operators to Syria either.
“It’s all nonsense…and media speculation,” Antonov said.
On Monday, large landing ships Azov and Nikolai Filchenkov from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet departed from Novorossiysk to the Syrian port of Tartus, where the Russian Navy keeps a small maintenance base.
The ships are carrying naval infantry units for protection during the voyage.
They are expected to pass through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits on December 26-27 and join the Black Sea Fleet task force comprising the missile cruiser Moskva and the frigate Smetlivy in the Aegean Sea on December 28 before heading to Tartus.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich confirmed on Monday that Russia has a contingency plan for evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria if necessary.
The conflict between Bashar al-Assad regime and opposition forces in Syria has claimed the lives of over 30,000 people since March 2011, according to UN figures.

Russians, Italian abducted in Syria – safe and sound

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_12_24/Russians-Italian-abducted-in-Syria-safe-and-sound/

Two Russians and an Italian who were earlier kidnapped in Syria are safe and sound, spokesman for the Russian embassy in Syria Sergey Markov told the Voice of Russia.

The diplomat said the abducted are kept in normal conditions and both Russian and Syrian officials are doing their best to release them as soon as possible.
The two Russian nationals, Viktor Gorelov and Abdessattar Hassun and Italian Mario Belluomo were kidnapped on December 17. The abductors were demanding a ransom of 700,00 dollars.
Kidnap for ransom is a kind of trade in today’s Syria. A Ukrainian female reporter, who was abducted last month, is still in captivity.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I don't think anyone who is talking in public knows what is going to happen.

You also said there was something along the lines of an 80% chance of an Isareli attack before the US election. And what was that assessment based on, if not what was being talked about in public?


http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakuma...us-iran-talks/

Israel anticipates US-Iran talks

There can be no two opinions that 2013 is going to be the year that the United States’s standoff with Iran will have to give way. It has been a toss-up so far, but the pendulum is steadily tilting toward the prospect of peace doves spreading wings and taking to the blue sky. Many tell-tale signs are appearing.

First and foremost, belying all logic, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shied away from attempts to raise the Iran issue to drum up support in the crucial parliamentary election later this month. He has also piped down on Iran approaching the ‘red line’, an apocalyptic vision he conjured up in the UN GA speech in September in New York.

Equally, Israel is lowering the threat perception from Iran, claiming now that with Syria in disarray, Iran is isolated and its Hezbollah ally is on the back foot.

This ‘cooling down’ follows a spate of reports in recent months since September of secret contacts between Israel and Iran. One report in Haaretz claimed that Netanyahu admitted the secret meetings and that former Israeli FM Shiomo Ben-Ami was present at the talks with Iran about its nuclear program.

The Israeli shift on Iran also runs parallel to the reports from Washington of a secret dialogue going on with Iran at a very high level through experts in President Barack Obama’s transitional team. Indeed, Obama himself took note recently that a diplomatic opportunity exists for the West and Iran to resume talks and, more important, that Iran’s nuclear program didn’t pose any imminent threat.

The big question is: How to talk to Iran? The New York Times has an opinion piece by Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the old war horse, which seeks to answer the question. His recommendation is deceptively simple, namely, US should try to grasp why the Iranians won’t put expediency above dignity. He estimates:

“We believe Iran would be open to new measures regarding the transparency of its nuclear program, and would agree not to pursue any capability to enrich uranium beyond that needed to fuel atomic power plants, if its legitimate right to enrichment under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty was recognized and if an agreement to remove sanctions was reached.” Mousavian’s opinion piece ishere.

Indeed, influential voices in the West are rallying opinion that the US should begin serious negotiations with Iran. This past week alone, there was a WaPo editorial, an opinion piece by Zbigniew Brzezinski, and of course the suggestive NYT report by David Sanger quoting US officials in Washington.

Cut your way through the dense rhetoric and it becomes apparent that both Washington and Tehran are just about realizing that the escalation game has reached a dead end and there aren’t going to be any winners. The way out is to recognize each other’s red lines and talk, talk, and talk. Alright, the sanctions are hurting Iran but Tehran shows no signs of rethink on its nuclear program.

Put differently, the US has no stomach for war, while on the other hand Tehran realizes the futility of increasing the enrichment levels beyond 20 percent. Both sides are groping for what Trita Parsi calls ‘honorable exit options’.

Now, this week’s India-Iran consultations at the level of the national security advisors have been very timely. The prospect of an easing of US-Iran tensions holds profound implications for India’s regional policies. Don’t be surprised if Obama takes help from Tehran in pushing the Afghan endgame.


Posted in Diplomacy, Politics.
By M K Bhadrakumar – January 4, 2013

[makimanos]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Everything is complicated. You have to wait till the things settle down in Middle East and now in Africa.
The game just started and the players behind the scenes aren't sure for the direction.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

150 Russians isn't many compared to the total Russian expat population in Syria, but if the trickle grows it could be telling.

Snippet from elsewhere:

21 January, 2013, 21:42

Russia’s Emergencies Ministry is sending two planes to the Lebanese capital to pick those Russians who want to leave Syria torn by the ongoing civil conflict. The aircraft leave for Beirut on Tuesday, some 100 Russians are expected to be evacuated.

Two planes, Il-76 and Yak-42, both able to cary up to 120 passengers will be dispatched for Beirut, the ministry confirmed on Monday. The crews will include medics and psychologists.

About 150 Russian citizens, who want to leave Syria are already in Beirut. Most of those being evacuated are women and children.
Earlier media reported that Russia was considering using the navy to evacuate its citizens from Syria. This appeared to be confirmed when several warships were sent to the Mediterranean sea. But the Foreign Ministry denied the speculation, saying the deployment was for scheduled military drills.

In December a member of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, a newly formed opposition body recognized by the West, called Russian citizens in Syria ‘legitimate targets.’
"Russia, like Iran, supports the Assad regime with weapons and ammunition, as well as in the political arena, so the citizens of these countries are legitimate targets for militants in Syria," Haitham al-Maleh, a member of the coalition told RT.*

According to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov there are thousands of Russian citizens living in Syria. Many of them are not registered with the consulate, mostly women and children from mixed marriages.

Another Russian official, Federation Council member Albert Kazharov, estimated the number of Russian citizens in Syria at 100,000.
Russia also has a naval base in Syria which is manned by some 50 sailors and officers. The Tartus base was founded in the 1970s during the Soviet times. Neglected in the 1990s, the base has been recently revived and now is used for repairs and refueling Russian ships in the Medditeranean.
The bases has remained operational despite the bloody conflict that has been raging in Syria for the last two years. However, if the lives of those at the base are put in danger the staff will be evacuated, Russian authorities said in July.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

On the verge of another "permanently" chaotic MENA nation?

...A little trip down memory lane:

Jun. 29, 2005
George W. Bush
THE PRESIDENT: I am absolutely confident that we made the right decision. And not only that, I'm absolutely confident that the actions we took in Iraq are influencing reformers and freedom lovers in the greater Middle East. And I believe that you're going to see the rise of democracy in many countries in the broader Middle East, which will lay the foundation for peace.

I wonder what the Obama edition of the "Mission Accomplished" banner will look like...

So, how does everyone like this democracy and freedom thing so far?


And the chaos continues...

Tunisia protests after government critic shot dead

TUNIS | Wed Feb 6, 2013 12:05pm EST

(Reuters) - A fierce critic of the Tunisian government's dealings with radical Islamists was shot dead on Wednesday, sending protesters onto the streets two years after their Jasmine Revolution sparked revolt across the Arab world.

The headquarters of the moderate Islamist Ennahda party, which rules in a fractious coalition with secularists, was set ablaze after Chokri Belaid, an outspoken, secular leader, was gunned down outside his home in the capital...

...As Belaid's body was taken by ambulance through Tunis from the hospital where he died, police fired teargas towards about 20,000 protesters at the Interior Ministry chanting for the fall of the government...

...But as in Egypt, many who campaigned for freedom from repression under autocratic rulers and better prospects for their future now feel their revolutions have been hijacked by Islamists they accuse of clamping down on personal liberties, with no sign of new jobs or improvements in infrastructure.

Tunisia's new constitution will pave the way for new elections but will inevitably be a source of friction between secularists and Islamists, just as it was in Egypt, where the president adopted sweeping powers to force it through...

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The Eastern world, it is exploding...

Egypt's ElBaradei Calls for Election Boycott

February 23, 2013

A top Egyptian opposition figure has called for a boycott of the nation's upcoming parliamentary elections.

Mohamed ElBaradei said Saturday that he refuses to take part in the elections called by Islamist President Mohamed Morsi earlier this week...

... ElBaradei, a former chief of the U.N. nuclear agency, described the poll as "an act of deception."

Islamists have managed to win every election since the ouster of former president Hosni Mubarak.

Other opposition leaders have not yet said whether they agree with ElBaradei's call...

... The voting will take place in four stages across a country deeply divided between the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood party that has ruled since the ouster of Mr. Mubarak and the more secularist opposition.

As scheduled, the voting would end in late June with the parliament scheduled to hold its first meeting on July 6.

This will be Egypt's first election since an Islamist-backed constitution was adopted in December. Critics say the constitution - drafted without opposition input and approved in a hastily organized referendum - fails to provide adequate human rights protections and fails to curb the power of the military establishment.

Violent protests have rocked Egypt for months.

At least 53 killed after powerful car bomb rocks central Damascus

BEIRUT — Reuters

Published Thursday, Feb. 21 2013, 4:45 AM EST

Last updated Thursday, Feb. 21 2013, 9:47 AM EST

A car bomb killed 53 people and wounded 200 in central Damascus on Thursday when it blew up on a busy highway close to ruling Baath Party offices and the Russian Embassy, Syrian television said.

TV footage showed charred and bloodied bodies strewn across the street after the blast, which state media said was the result of a suicide bombing by “terrorists” battling President Bashar al-Assad...

...Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency quoted a diplomat as saying the blast blew out windows at the embassy but no employees were wounded. “The building has really been damaged ... The windows are shattered,” the diplomat said...

...The al Qaeda-linked rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra, which claimed responsibility for several of those bombs, says it carried out 17 attacks around Damascus in the first half of February, including at least seven bombings...

Syrian Opposition Group Boycotts International Meetings

February 23, 201311:17 AM

Syria's main opposition group is declining invitations to international meetings to protest what it calls the "shameful" failure by world leaders to end violence there.

"The international silence on the crimes committed every day against our people amounts to participating in two years of killings," the Syrian National Coalition said in a statement released Friday and reported on by Agence France-Presse and other news organizations.

"We hold the Russian leaders in particular ethically and politically responsible because they continue to support the [Damascus] regime with weapons," the statement said.

The group's leaders had received invitations to attend meetings in Moscow and Washington, D.C. Now, those meetings won't happen.

The coalition is also pulling out of a conference in Rome next month with the international coalition, Friends of Syria, which supports the opposition.

"The main significance of this decision to boycott international diplomatic meetings on Syria is that it effectively torpedoes the initiative launched by the coalition's own leader Moaz al-Khatib," the BBC's Jim Muir reported Saturday.

On Friday, three missile strikes fired by Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces killed more than 29 people in a rebel-held area of eastern Aleppo, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights...

Tunisians hit the streets once again, trying to bring down the government

Saturday, 23 February 2013

Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets in the capital on Saturday as they denounced the new prime minister-designate Ali Larayedh, a hardliner from the main Islamist Ennahda party.

President Moncef Marzouki asked Larayedh to form a government on Friday after outgoing Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali resigned on Tuesday...

...Tunisia plunged into political crisis on February 6 when the assassination of secular opposition politician Chokri Belaid ignited the biggest street protests since the overthrow of strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali two years ago...

A Tunisian protester holds a placard featuring killed opposition leader Chokri Belaid
during a demonstration on February 23, 2013 on the Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis. (AFP)

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

What is happening here is precisely the tactics used by Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. They provide the essential social services that the corrupt and inept official government or opposition will not.

Syria: how jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra is taking over Syria's revolution

Aleppo has been plunged into despair. Riven with war, life in Syria's most populous city has become a dog-eat-dog existence: a battle for survival in a place where the strong devour the weak.

Its luxuriant history is lost beneath uncollected litter on its pavements and streets. Feral children play beside buildings shattered by shelling and air strikes. There is no electricity, no heating; gunmen prowl the streets as night falls. Some are rebels searching for government loyalists; others are criminals looking to kidnap for ransom. Looting is rife.

It is here, behind the front lines of the war against Bashar al-Assad that a new struggle is emerging. It is a clash of ideologies: a competition where rebel brigades vie to determine the shape of post-Assad Syria.

And in recent weeks it is Jabhat al-Nusra, a radical jihadist group blacklisted by the US as terrorists and a group that wants Syria to be an uncompromising Islamic state governed by sharia, that is holding sway.

The group is well funded – probably through established global jihadist networks – in comparison to moderates. Meanwhile pro-democracy rebel group commanders say money from foreign governments has all but dried up because of fears over radical Islamists...

... The Nusra Front is known for some of the bravest fighters on the front lines. But the fundamentalist movement is now focusing on highly effective humanitarian programs that are quickly winning the loyalty of Aleppo’s residents.

Imbued with discipline borne of religious dogmatism it is catering to basic needs in a city that lacks everything from working factories to courts.

Chief among hardships was the languishing supply of bread. It is a staple in Syria – without it tens of thousands of the poor would starve.

When rebel fighters seized control of the grain stores around the city, the supply of flour all but ceased. Locals accused rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) of raiding the stores and stealing the grain to sell...

... Then, in the past weeks, Jabhat al-Nusra – which is outside the FSA – pushed other rebel groups out of the stores and established a system to distribute bread throughout rebel areas.

In a small office attached to a bakery in the Miesseh district of Aleppo, Abu Yayha studied a map pinned on the wall. Numbers were scrawled in pencil against streets.

“We counted the population of every street to assess the need for the area,” explained Mr Yahya. “We provide 23,593 bags of bread every two days for this area. This is just in one district. We are calculating the population in other districts and doing the same there.

“In shops the cost is now 125 Syrian pounds (£1.12) for one pack. Here we sell it at 50 Syrian pounds (45p) for two bags. We distribute some for free for those who cannot pay.”

The bakery works constantly. Inside, barrows filled with dough were heaved onto a conveyor belt that chopped it into round and flat segments, before pushing the dough into a giant oven. Workers packed the steaming flatbread in bags.

“I am from Jabhat al Nusra. All the managers of all the bakeries are,” said Abu Fattah, the manager. “This makes sure that nobody steals.” ...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

What is happening here is precisely the tactics used by Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. They provide the essential social services that the corrupt and inept official government or opposition will not.

Syria: how jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra is taking over Syria's revolution

Aleppo has been plunged into despair. Riven with war, life in Syria's most populous city has become a dog-eat-dog existence: a battle for survival in a place where the strong devour the weak.

Its luxuriant history is lost beneath uncollected litter on its pavements and streets. Feral children play beside buildings shattered by shelling and air strikes. There is no electricity, no heating; gunmen prowl the streets as night falls. Some are rebels searching for government loyalists; others are criminals looking to kidnap for ransom. Looting is rife.

It is here, behind the front lines of the war against Bashar al-Assad that a new struggle is emerging. It is a clash of ideologies: a competition where rebel brigades vie to determine the shape of post-Assad Syria.

And in recent weeks it is Jabhat al-Nusra, a radical jihadist group blacklisted by the US as terrorists and a group that wants Syria to be an uncompromising Islamic state governed by sharia, that is holding sway.

The group is well funded – probably through established global jihadist networks – in comparison to moderates. Meanwhile pro-democracy rebel group commanders say money from foreign governments has all but dried up because of fears over radical Islamists...

... The Nusra Front is known for some of the bravest fighters on the front lines. But the fundamentalist movement is now focusing on highly effective humanitarian programs that are quickly winning the loyalty of Aleppo’s residents.

Imbued with discipline borne of religious dogmatism it is catering to basic needs in a city that lacks everything from working factories to courts.

Chief among hardships was the languishing supply of bread. It is a staple in Syria – without it tens of thousands of the poor would starve.

When rebel fighters seized control of the grain stores around the city, the supply of flour all but ceased. Locals accused rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) of raiding the stores and stealing the grain to sell...

... Then, in the past weeks, Jabhat al-Nusra – which is outside the FSA – pushed other rebel groups out of the stores and established a system to distribute bread throughout rebel areas.

In a small office attached to a bakery in the Miesseh district of Aleppo, Abu Yayha studied a map pinned on the wall. Numbers were scrawled in pencil against streets.

“We counted the population of every street to assess the need for the area,” explained Mr Yahya. “We provide 23,593 bags of bread every two days for this area. This is just in one district. We are calculating the population in other districts and doing the same there.

“In shops the cost is now 125 Syrian pounds (£1.12) for one pack. Here we sell it at 50 Syrian pounds (45p) for two bags. We distribute some for free for those who cannot pay.”

The bakery works constantly. Inside, barrows filled with dough were heaved onto a conveyor belt that chopped it into round and flat segments, before pushing the dough into a giant oven. Workers packed the steaming flatbread in bags.

“I am from Jabhat al Nusra. All the managers of all the bakeries are,” said Abu Fattah, the manager. “This makes sure that nobody steals.” ...

Hearts and Minds.

Like mafia bosses handing out Thanksgiving frozen turkeys in the poor neighborhoods that harbor him.

Like Hez glass repair trucks in Lebanon replacing windows after an Israeli airstrike.

The kinetic and "explodey" stuff is generally the focus of the mass media, probably due to its highway traffic accident "rubber necking" value.

And while the military battle for key terrain is very important, the battle for governance is the only one that really matters.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The Eastern world, it is exploding...

Egypt's ElBaradei Calls for Election Boycott

February 23, 2013

A top Egyptian opposition figure has called for a boycott of the nation's upcoming parliamentary elections...

Thousands hold anti-gov't protests in Egypt

2013-02-23 08:41:24

CAIRO, Feb. 22 (Xinhua) -- Thousands of Egyptians held nationwide anti-government protests Friday, demanding sacking the government and dissolving the Muslim Brotherhood, to which President Mohamed Morsi is affiliated.

Protesters outside the presidential palace raised banners saying "leave and take your movement with you," in reference to the president and the Muslim Brotherhood.

More protesters flocked to Cairo's iconic Tahrir Square and asked for toppling the government, trying its leaders and sacking the prosecutor general, along with releasing all political detainees, official news agency MENA reported.

Outside Egyptian High Court of Justice in downtown Cairo, thousands of protesters chanted slogans of "Leave, leave" and " Down, down with rule by the guide," referring to the Muslim Brotherhood's leader Mohamed Badie.

The security forces have intensified their presence in areas surrounding the building, and the protests are being filmed to identify outlaws in case clashes erupt between protesters and security men, a security official was quoted by Ahram as saying...




Egypt’s ruling Islamists move to ban selling of alcohol

Wednesday, 20 February 2013

By Al Arabiya

Egypt’s Islamist government will no longer issue licenses for selling alcohol in certain areas of Cairo, Alexandria and other major cities, an official has said.

Nabil Abbas, the vice president of the New Urban Communities Authorities (NUCA) told Reuters on Sunday: “NUCA has stopped renewing licenses to sell alcohol but the current ones will continue until they expire.”...

... Karim Mohsen, board member of the Egyptian Travel Agents Association, said if the government were to ban alcohol in hotels and restaurants across the country it could hurt Egypt’s ailing tourism industry, hard hit by political turmoil...

...The economy is already dwindling, tourism is moribund and investment is at a standstill. For a country that previously received roughly 15 million tourists per year, the drop to around three million visitors per annum presents a serious challenge.

Furthermore “no one is investing in tourism, it is not a sure source of income now,” Abdulhay said.

For the moment, major tourist hot-spots such as Sharm-el-Sheihk will not have their alcohol license taken away...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

...The economy is already dwindling, tourism is moribund and investment is at a standstill. For a country that previously received roughly 15 million tourists per year, the drop to around three million visitors per annum presents a serious challenge.

I had a quick look on the net.

It looks like tourists in Egypt spent ROUGHLY $1 billion US per 1 million visitors.

And tourism ROUGHLY employs 1% of the Egypt's workers per 1 million visitors.

So a collapsing tourism sector(again roughly 75% collapse, loss of 9 million visitors, and up to $9 billion in foreign currency export earnings and 9 million jobs) could really give Egypt a kick in the head while it's down.

But the two questions I have regarding Egypt are:

Will countries like Qatar perpetually continue to backstop Egypt from financial implosion to prevent the spread of the revolution virus?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9CA95P20130110

What's going to happen with the Nile?

http://allafrica.com/stories/201302230440.html

http://nazret.com/blog/index.php/201...y-changing-dam

I know it's not on the radar, what with so many more top of mind crisis.......but the risk of conflict over the Nile in the future is very real.

Could Egypt's government ever find itself looking at an external conflict to distract an angry domestic audience(like Argentina circa 1982) by looking South at the Nile.

Past performance is indicative of future performance.....and Egypt did have it's Vietnam in Yemen....the Nile would be a more worthwhile is equally foolish foreign adventure.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Egypt is in for trouble with or without the IMF

CAIRO | Tue Mar 5, 2013 10:51pm GMT

(Reuters) - Egypt is at risk of a "revolution of the hungry" two years after Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising, as food and energy prices will soar with or without an IMF deal.

Failure to get the $4.8 billion (£3.17 billion) loan or some other funding would have dire consequences: if Egypt keeps burning foreign currency at the rate it has done since the 2011 uprising, it will have none left in little more than a year.

But success would also stir Egypt's boiling social and political cauldron. In return for a lifeline, the International Monetary Fund will demand reform of a subsidy system that long ago became unaffordable.

The rich benefit most from the energy subsidies that exhaust state finances but the poor will suffer most if they go.

"Whether we have the IMF or not there will be difficulty ... the IMF requires certain economic reforms," said Salah Gouda, an economics professor. "If we lift subsidies right away then you are looking at a revolution of the hungry."

The economic gloom has dragged Egyptians from the high of the "Arab Spring" revolution to deepening poverty...

...The figures speak for themselves. The foreign currency reserves have slid to $13.5 billion at the end of February from $36 billion on the eve of the uprising...

...If Egypt were to run out of money - both foreign and local currency - the subsidy system would probably collapse anyway, leading to shortages and price rises in a chaotic return to the free market. Such a scenario of upheaval in the Arab world's most populous country supports those who say an IMF deal is vital...

...Now the government is having to buy most of the oil and much of the wheat for subsidised energy and bread on international markets with a devaluing local currency. Subsidised bread, which goes to the poor as better-off Egyptians prefer higher quality loaves, consumes about five percent of the state budget.

A far bigger problem is energy, which devours about 20 percent of the budget. Petroleum Minister Osama Kamal estimated last month that the energy subsidy bill would hit 120 billion Egyptian pounds (11.7 billion pounds) in the financial year to June...

...Two fifths of Egyptians live on less than $2 a day and while the poor don't own cars a big rise in fuel costs due to subsidy cuts would feed through to higher transport costs which would push up the price of the food they buy...

..."In my view, there will be massive popular protests should these austerity measures be implemented," said Salwa Al-Antary, former head of research in Egypt's National Bank who now heads the economic committee in the Egyptian Socialist Party.

"Egyptians will feel squeezed with the rise in prices after having hope of improvement with the revolution."...

...According to projections compiled for the IMF, the commonly used 90 octane gasoline would leap to 5.71 Egyptian pounds ($0.85) a litre from 1.75, and diesel would go up to 5.21 pounds from 1.10...

..."The IMF loan will not solve anything," said Gouda. "There is no security in the country and no one will want to invest in Egypt when there is political turmoil. With the IMF, Egypt would still need to beg for money."...