Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[flintlock]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

While I agree to a certain extent........do you really think that that's the key to peace in the ME?

Aren't there some relevant lessons to be learned from the mistakes make by the west intervening in Africa in the 70's/80's?

Back then there was a lot of noise about how Africa's problems would largely be solved by removing the white rule and apartheid regimes of Rhodesia and South Africa.

If anything got blown up, it was blamed on the Rhodesian and South African security forces(sometimes true).

If anything stopped working or failed, again it was conveniently blamed on the Rhodesians and South Africans.

Doesn't that ring true today with perpetual blame and convenient excuses found with "Zionists!" and 'Mossad!"?

30 plus years after the fall of Rhodesia(which by the way had a transitional plan to 1 person 1 vote, but which failed to meet the western instant gratification timeline) the country is in complete economic ruin.

20 years after the fall of South Africa and the country seems to be in a holding pattern for it's own descent into hell.

And the surrounding nations that were direct participants or enablers in the conflicts of Southern Africa in the 70's/80's aren't exactly setting the world on fire in terms of improving the quality of life and standard of living of their people.

So even IF Israel was to concede whatever the Palestinians and Arabs would like them to within reason, do you really think that is a critical component for a lasting peace in the region?

I simply do NOT see lasting peace in the region, even if Israel simply up and quit(or was ground down by anti apartheid efforts over the next 50 years), just as there wasn't lasting peace in Southern Africa.

I see nothing on the horizon leading to a path of increasing stability, security, and economic development.

What I see is nothing but instability and chaos.

I think the opponents of Israel have finally "got their number".

Grind Israel down demographically(whether this is truly intentional and coordinated I don't know but allowing poverty to fester like cancer and multiply isn't a difficult passive policy to implement).

Grind Israel down with perpetual small attacks from every point on the compass as Israel's Defense Force is largely geared shifting from a civilian economy to war economy very quickly, for a very quick conventional war. The longer the war the greater the cost for Israel to bear in terms of significant economic disruption.

To me this feels like an asymmetric world war I, a numbers based meat grinder war of attrition....in the military, economic, and demographic sense.

I seriously DO think Israel faces an existential threat........but I don't necessarily think the most sincere threat to Israel's existence is nuclear.

I think they are realistically facing being portrayal as the next Rhodesia/South Africa and potentially similar consequences and outcomes for Israel AND the region looking out the next 40 years.

As I posted elsewhere on this forum, when it comes to Israel.......are we not focusing more on the Trade than the long term Trend?

Could not agree more. Israel is the whipping boy of the middle east. While their hands may not be exactly clean in all of this, they have long been a convenient distraction to allow petty dictators and religious thugs to climb to power. Like South Africa, the problems in the ME will not go away even if Israel is throttled. It may take decades or centuries for ME nations to re-establish the institutions and political structure to regain stability and peace. Better education and opportunities for their people would be a good start.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

mohammed lived around 600ad iirc. so one comparison to provide context is to look at how things were going in christendom around the 1400's.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The bullhorn won't let go of this storyline, but is there anybody here that still thinks this is only about some two-bit, low budget film about the Prophet?

Protests near U.S. Embassy in Cairo continue after Obama warning

Cairo (CNN) -- Protests outside the U.S. Embassy in Cairo continued into Friday, after U.S. President Barack Obama issued what is being seen as a stern warning to Egypt that relations between the two countries will be shaped by "how they respond to this incident."...

Protesters Attack Three Embassies in Sudan

September 14, 2012

...Thousands of protesters stormed the German and British embassies soon after Friday prayers ended in Khartoum's Grand Mosque. They broke into the German building, where they set fires and raised a black Islamic flag.

Later, many protesters moved to the U.S. embassy, where they clashed with riot police trying to hold them back with batons and tear gas. Various sources say at least one protester outside the U.S. embassy was killed...

Anti-Islam Film Protests Spread To Sudan, Tunisia, Across Middle East

...The day of protests, which spread to around 20 countries, started small and mostly peacefully in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The most violent demonstrations took place in the Middle East...

Anti-Islamic film: Protests reach India now

NEW DELHI: Outrage over a controversial movie that mocks Prophet Muhammed and hurts the sentiments of millions of Muslims worldwide has now swept on to Indian shores with lawyers in Jammu and Kashmir protesting against the film in Srinagar...

...Protests were held in Nowhatta, Maisuma, Hazratbal, Alamgiri Bazaar, Abi Guzar, Sarai Bala and some other places in Srinagar...

Indonesians protest anti-Islam film at U.S. Embassy

JAKARTA, Indonesia — About 200 Indonesians showed their anger over an anti-Islam film Friday by chanting "death to Jews!" and "death to America!" in a largely peaceful protest outside the heavily guarded U.S. Embassy...

Malaysian Muslims protest anti-Islam film

Muslims held demonstrations across Malaysia on Friday, calling for the United States to prevent distribution of an anti-Islam film they said was part of a plot by "Christian extremists"...

.

[astonas]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Well unfortunately, a cornered dog is when he is at his most dangerous. I just don't see why Iran and many Arab states are given a free pass to make outrageous threats, like they are merely some old crazy uncle. I think Israel can be heavy handed at times, but in this regard, I can't really blame them. Obama is trying to play it both ways. He won't be their attack dog, but then he wants to pretend he is for the Jewish vote. Typical politician.

I agree that Obama (and Romney) is a typical politician in this regard. But I also think that Bibi and friends in Israel are as well. A small group of politicians there, currently led by Netanyahu, have built their careers by inflating every minor threat to Israel into an existential threat. By convincing the voters that they are on the brink of certain destruction, they assure that those voter keep them in charge to implement their hard-line policies.

I am certainly cynical about U.S. politics. But I do not believe that such cynicism is warranted only in the U.S. The cornered dog is only pretending to be cornered, so it can stay in power.

One indicator here is that the opposition party does not seem to think things are nearly so bad. A TRUE existential threat would promote political unity. That's not exactly where Israel is today.

[astonas]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

While I agree to a certain extent........do you really think that that's the key to peace in the ME?

Aren't there some relevant lessons to be learned from the mistakes make by the west intervening in Africa in the 70's/80's?

Back then there was a lot of noise about how Africa's problems would largely be solved by removing the white rule and apartheid regimes of Rhodesia and South Africa.

If anything got blown up, it was blamed on the Rhodesian and South African security forces(sometimes true).

If anything stopped working or failed, again it was conveniently blamed on the Rhodesians and South Africans.

Doesn't that ring true today with perpetual blame and convenient excuses found with "Zionists!" and 'Mossad!"?

30 plus years after the fall of Rhodesia(which by the way had a transitional plan to 1 person 1 vote, but which failed to meet the western instant gratification timeline) the country is in complete economic ruin.

20 years after the fall of South Africa and the country seems to be in a holding pattern for it's own descent into hell.

And the surrounding nations that were direct participants or enablers in the conflicts of Southern Africa in the 70's/80's aren't exactly setting the world on fire in terms of improving the quality of life and standard of living of their people.

So even IF Israel was to concede whatever the Palestinians and Arabs would like them to within reason, do you really think that is a critical component for a lasting peace in the region?

I simply do NOT see lasting peace in the region, even if Israel simply up and quit(or was ground down by anti apartheid efforts over the next 50 years), just as there wasn't lasting peace in Southern Africa.

I see nothing on the horizon leading to a path of increasing stability, security, and economic development.

What I see is nothing but instability and chaos.

I think the opponents of Israel have finally "got their number".

Grind Israel down demographically(whether this is truly intentional and coordinated I don't know but allowing poverty to fester like cancer and multiply isn't a difficult passive policy to implement).

Grind Israel down with perpetual small attacks from every point on the compass as Israel's Defense Force is largely geared shifting from a civilian economy to war economy very quickly, for a very quick conventional war. The longer the war the greater the cost for Israel to bear in terms of significant economic disruption.

To me this feels like an asymmetric world war I, a numbers based meat grinder war of attrition....in the military, economic, and demographic sense.

I seriously DO think Israel faces an existential threat........but I don't necessarily think the most sincere threat to Israel's existence is nuclear.

I think they are realistically facing being portrayal as the next Rhodesia/South Africa and potentially similar consequences and outcomes for Israel AND the region looking out the next 40 years.

As I posted elsewhere on this forum, when it comes to Israel.......are we not focusing more on the Trade than the long term Trend?

I have to say that when I put my "realist" hat on, things don't really look very bright for Israel, regardless of one's stance on military posturing. The concerns you outline are indeed valid. But what little hope does remain relies on a bilateral scaling down of rhetoric, along with a cessation of the dynamic that rewards one side (in this case, Israel) for refusing to make peace.

And that won't be possible as long as the U.S. continues to support Israel without considering Israel's own antagonistic actions.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

So how do you like this freedom and democracy in the Middle East thing so far?

It looks pretty messy!

I would be seriously stunned and genuinely frightened if there were senior advisors in the US Administration that actually thought that a shift towards support of the Arab Spring would result in anything but blowback at some stage.

I think the amount of repressed rage held by the general public in the Arab Spring nations is too immense to safely dissipate very quickly.

Exactly what credit the US can or will attempt to take in the Arab Spring, whether genuine or not, I think will come across as synthetic.

My best guess is that for places like Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, etc is that the outcome may not be too indifferent from Iran post 1979.

The US can't directly support or passively condone dictatorships at the expense of the people without expecting considerable blowback for a period.

I'm hopeful there can be a quick "new normal"-ization of relations between the US and respective nations, with varying degrees of time and difficulty.

But I don't see this in ANY way being a particularly good thing for the US in the short-to-medium term like the former Warsaw Pact nations.

Back then with the fall of the Warsaw Pact the US was playing the role of the US, now with the Arab Spring nations I'm guessing the US is playing roughly the role of the Soviet Union.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The bullhorn won't let go of this storyline, but is there anybody here that still thinks this is only about some two-bit, low budget film about the Prophet?

Protests near U.S. Embassy in Cairo continue after Obama warning

Cairo (CNN) -- Protests outside the U.S. Embassy in Cairo continued into Friday, after U.S. President Barack Obama issued what is being seen as a stern warning to Egypt that relations between the two countries will be shaped by "how they respond to this incident."...

Protesters Attack Three Embassies in Sudan

September 14, 2012

...Thousands of protesters stormed the German and British embassies soon after Friday prayers ended in Khartoum's Grand Mosque. They broke into the German building, where they set fires and raised a black Islamic flag.

Later, many protesters moved to the U.S. embassy, where they clashed with riot police trying to hold them back with batons and tear gas. Various sources say at least one protester outside the U.S. embassy was killed...

Anti-Islam Film Protests Spread To Sudan, Tunisia, Across Middle East

...The day of protests, which spread to around 20 countries, started small and mostly peacefully in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The most violent demonstrations took place in the Middle East...

Anti-Islamic film: Protests reach India now

NEW DELHI: Outrage over a controversial movie that mocks Prophet Muhammed and hurts the sentiments of millions of Muslims worldwide has now swept on to Indian shores with lawyers in Jammu and Kashmir protesting against the film in Srinagar...

...Protests were held in Nowhatta, Maisuma, Hazratbal, Alamgiri Bazaar, Abi Guzar, Sarai Bala and some other places in Srinagar...

Indonesians protest anti-Islam film at U.S. Embassy

JAKARTA, Indonesia — About 200 Indonesians showed their anger over an anti-Islam film Friday by chanting "death to Jews!" and "death to America!" in a largely peaceful protest outside the heavily guarded U.S. Embassy...

Malaysian Muslims protest anti-Islam film

Muslims held demonstrations across Malaysia on Friday, calling for the United States to prevent distribution of an anti-Islam film they said was part of a plot by "Christian extremists"...

.

GRG55, I'm assuming you're still a young(er) fella. But have you had any experience in the region during a comparative period of instability?

Such as the headline filled 1979?

That's about the only period in recent history that I recall having such a cluster of similar-ish incidents.

One thing that is interesting is the Twitter exchange between the US Diplomatic Mission to Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=10833963

[astonas]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

One thing that is interesting is the Twitter exchange between the US Diplomatic Mission to Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=10833963

I'd heard about this, but haven't been able to find any English translation of the Muslim Brotherhood's Arabic feeds. Anyone know exactly what they were saying?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I'd heard about this, but haven't been able to find any English translation of the Muslim Brotherhood's Arabic feeds. Anyone know exactly what they were saying?

Same....I suspect from reading between the lines that the content for domestic Egyptian consumption was a bit different.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

GRG55, I'm assuming you're still a young(er) fella. But have you had any experience in the region during a comparative period of instability?

Such as the headline filled 1979?

That's about the only period in recent history that I recall having such a cluster of similar-ish incidents.

One thing that is interesting is the Twitter exchange between the US Diplomatic Mission to Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=10833963

I wish I was still young :-)

Anyone who's been on this site for any length of time knows my background, and I won't post a resume. My view of MENA, after living there nearly a decade, is that it is a perpetually unstable region...all that changes is the degree. I was in the Gulf on 9/11, at the start of Gulf War v.2, and for a whole lot of other lesser known events which added to the long list of precursors to what is oh so visible today.

I am currently spending the majority of my time in Central Asia, and am watching with interest as the USA and Russia compete to prop up some equally corrupt regimes around here with massive amounts of foreign aid, some of it disguised as rental payments for air bases. Just one example...spend some time in the lobby bar of the Hyatt hotel in Bishkek and you'll quickly discover that almost all the expats work for NGOs either directly or on funded projects. Virtually nobody is there trying to develop a real business or bring in badly needed private investment. Why? Because as long as the most senior politicians are generously funded by stripping off a big cut of the "free" aid money they have no incentive to establish policies to develop a real economy. In the meantime the majority of the citizens remain impoverished and those that have a marketable skill, such as mining engineering or geology, are leaving.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

A friend just emailed me this picture. She works in the American Cooperative School of Tunis. It's the elementary library, completed two years ago.

[c1ue]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

mohammed lived around 600ad iirc. so one comparison to provide context is to look at how things were going in christendom around the 1400's.

Indeed - the persecution of the Oriental Orthodox and various other flavors of Christendom, motivated primarily by regional power struggles between the major dioceses.

There are those who believe that one reason Egypt/Syria/Palestine fell so quickly to the Muslims was the ongoing persecution of their local flavor of Christianity - that it was easier to live under Muslims than their nominal co-religionists.

[shiny!]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Indeed - the persecution of the Oriental Orthodox and various other flavors of Christendom, motivated primarily by regional power struggles between the major dioceses.

There are those who believe that one reason Egypt/Syria/Palestine fell so quickly to the Muslims was the ongoing persecution of their local flavor of Christianity - that it was easier to live under Muslims than their nominal co-religionists.

"Religion is not merely the opium of the masses, it's the cyanide. " - Tom Robbins (Skinny Legs and All)

(Duck and cover time)

[metalman]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

was a time when killing a usa diplomat was an act of war. now i guess it’s just a 'shit happens' kinda thing. now killed with impunity...

CBS: Witnesses Says There Was Never An Anti-American Protest In Benghazi, Just An Attack



open season on US diplomats?

such as in china... with the state behind it...

China's Ai Weiwei: anti-Japan protests 'prepared'



prepared? well, duh. protests are illegal... when allowed are prepared.

next...

“round up the usual suspects...”

China Investigates Demonstration Around U.S. Ambassador’s Car
http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-ne...ssadors-car-3/

meanwhile, back in pakistan...

Obama Uses Pakistani Television to Denounce Anti-Islam Film
http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-ne...ti-islam-film/

a planned attack that killed our ambassador in libya... that turns out had nothing to do with an anti-islam youtube video... that no one saw... that represents our right to free speech... an attack that was not preceded by a demonstration as mis-reported by the obama admin... is justified by our president?

[aaron]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

There are many gangs in Washington D.C. How much would it really cost to get one of them to kill somebody, even if they are in a fancy car?
Or that those 2 guys who, after 9/11, were taking out people with a sniper rifle? What if he decided to start outside a diplomat's home?

I guess these things can be construed as an act of war, but damn... do you really want that to be the standard?

And the Chinese video, to me, just shows how much better police behave over there compared to the U.S.