Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[astonas]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Only with military assistance from the USA and others. I think there may be some doubt in the world that the USA still has their back.

If that's true (though I'm not yet certain it is) it is not necessarily a bad thing. But what is really needed is that Israel itself comes to that conclusion before their opponents. Sadly, they seem to be led at the moment by very slow learners.

Only when Israel realizes that the U.S. will not back up whatever arbitrarily forceful saber-rattling they feel like doing, will it actually be forced to come to the negotiating table in good faith. Their current policy encouraging settlement essentially rewards Israel more, the longer it fails to reach an agreement on the Palestinian issue. That's not exactly conducive to peace talks. This is the cause of a lot of the anti-western sentiment in the region, and a part of why U.S. military expenses are so unaffordably high.

A lasting peace in the middle east can only come after the U.S. makes it abundently clear to Israel that it will not tolerate being manipulated into an optional war. We are their ally, not their attack dog.

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

meanwhile, back in libya...

American killed in attack on US Consulate in Libya, security official says, following Egyptian protest at US embassy

Published September 11, 2012

One American was shot dead and another was wounded when armed men in eastern Libya stormed the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, a Libyan security official says. Earlier in the day, mainly ultraconservative protesters climbed the walls of the U.S. embassy in Egypt's capital and brought down the American flag, replacing it with a black Islamist flag to protest a U.S.-produced film attacking the Prophet Muhammad.

"One American staff member has died and a number have been injured in the clashes,'' Abdel-Monem Al-Hurr, a spokesman for Libya's Supreme Security Committee, told Reuters.

----

The White House confirmed the death of Libyan born Abu Yahya Al-Libi on June 5 2012. This came out just yesterday...

Zawahiri confirms death of Al Qaeda deputy

September 11, 2012

Libya: Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has released a video coinciding with the anniversary of the September 11 attacks, confirming for the first time the death of his deputy, US monitors said.

The 42-minute video is Zawahiri's first release in three months, and confirms that Abu Yahya al-Libi was killed in a drone strike in Pakistan's Waziristan tribal area on June 4, according to SITE and IntelCenter.

Libi was considered Al-Qaeda's global propaganda mastermind and his death dealt the biggest blow to the group since the killing of Osama bin Laden by US special forces in May 2011...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

meanwhile, back in libya...


meanwhile in iraq...


meanwhile in syria...

Good post......but you also could have added a "Meanwhile, in Egypt" too:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-...cked-over-film

[flintlock]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

If that's true (though I'm not yet certain it is) it is not necessarily a bad thing. But what is really needed is that Israel itself comes to that conclusion before their opponents. Sadly, they seem to be led at the moment by very slow learners.

Only when Israel realizes that the U.S. will not back up whatever arbitrarily forceful saber-rattling they feel like doing, will it actually be forced to come to the negotiating table in good faith. Their current policy encouraging settlement essentially rewards Israel more, the longer it fails to reach an agreement on the Palestinian issue. That's not exactly conducive to peace talks. This is the cause of a lot of the anti-western sentiment in the region, and a part of why U.S. military expenses are so unaffordably high.

A lasting peace in the middle east can only come after the U.S. makes it abundently clear to Israel that it will not tolerate being manipulated into an optional war. We are their ally, not their attack dog.

Well unfortunately, a cornered dog is when he is at his most dangerous. I just don't see why Iran and many Arab states are given a free pass to make outrageous threats, like they are merely some old crazy uncle. I think Israel can be heavy handed at times, but in this regard, I can't really blame them. Obama is trying to play it both ways. He won't be their attack dog, but then he wants to pretend he is for the Jewish vote. Typical politician.

[llanlad2]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

. Guys like Assad talked the talk but used the anti-Israel rhetoric mainly to unite factions behind the government.They are freaking out because the instability will likely bring about radical leadership that have a track record of talking about the destruction of Israel, and a history of actual attacks on Israel.

I think it will be some time before there are credible, stable governments (if ever) in Libya and Syria. And when (if) they occur no matter the rhetoric the new leaders will want to hold on to what they've got which means not embarking on a suicide mission to Israel.
Israel will face problems and attacks from Islamists in the near future but won't actually have any Government to blame. This is the issue for the US today following the murder of the ambassador although it wouldn't surprise me if it conveniently "turns out" to be an Iranian supported mob. Gotta serve up revenge somewhere!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

If that's true (though I'm not yet certain it is) it is not necessarily a bad thing. But what is really needed is that Israel itself comes to that conclusion before their opponents. Sadly, they seem to be led at the moment by very slow learners.

Only when Israel realizes that the U.S. will not back up whatever arbitrarily forceful saber-rattling they feel like doing, will it actually be forced to come to the negotiating table in good faith. Their current policy encouraging settlement essentially rewards Israel more, the longer it fails to reach an agreement on the Palestinian issue. That's not exactly conducive to peace talks. This is the cause of a lot of the anti-western sentiment in the region, and a part of why U.S. military expenses are so unaffordably high.

A lasting peace in the middle east can only come after the U.S. makes it abundently clear to Israel that it will not tolerate being manipulated into an optional war. We are their ally, not their attack dog.

While I agree to a certain extent........do you really think that that's the key to peace in the ME?

Aren't there some relevant lessons to be learned from the mistakes make by the west intervening in Africa in the 70's/80's?

Back then there was a lot of noise about how Africa's problems would largely be solved by removing the white rule and apartheid regimes of Rhodesia and South Africa.

If anything got blown up, it was blamed on the Rhodesian and South African security forces(sometimes true).

If anything stopped working or failed, again it was conveniently blamed on the Rhodesians and South Africans.

Doesn't that ring true today with perpetual blame and convenient excuses found with "Zionists!" and 'Mossad!"?

30 plus years after the fall of Rhodesia(which by the way had a transitional plan to 1 person 1 vote, but which failed to meet the western instant gratification timeline) the country is in complete economic ruin.

20 years after the fall of South Africa and the country seems to be in a holding pattern for it's own descent into hell.

And the surrounding nations that were direct participants or enablers in the conflicts of Southern Africa in the 70's/80's aren't exactly setting the world on fire in terms of improving the quality of life and standard of living of their people.

So even IF Israel was to concede whatever the Palestinians and Arabs would like them to within reason, do you really think that is a critical component for a lasting peace in the region?

I simply do NOT see lasting peace in the region, even if Israel simply up and quit(or was ground down by anti apartheid efforts over the next 50 years), just as there wasn't lasting peace in Southern Africa.

I see nothing on the horizon leading to a path of increasing stability, security, and economic development.

What I see is nothing but instability and chaos.

I think the opponents of Israel have finally "got their number".

Grind Israel down demographically(whether this is truly intentional and coordinated I don't know but allowing poverty to fester like cancer and multiply isn't a difficult passive policy to implement).

Grind Israel down with perpetual small attacks from every point on the compass as Israel's Defense Force is largely geared shifting from a civilian economy to war economy very quickly, for a very quick conventional war. The longer the war the greater the cost for Israel to bear in terms of significant economic disruption.

To me this feels like an asymmetric world war I, a numbers based meat grinder war of attrition....in the military, economic, and demographic sense.

I seriously DO think Israel faces an existential threat........but I don't necessarily think the most sincere threat to Israel's existence is nuclear.

I think they are realistically facing being portrayal as the next Rhodesia/South Africa and potentially similar consequences and outcomes for Israel AND the region looking out the next 40 years.

As I posted elsewhere on this forum, when it comes to Israel.......are we not focusing more on the Trade than the long term Trend?

[BadJuju]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I think they are realistically facing being portrayal as the next Rhodesia/South Africa and potentially similar consequences and outcomes for Israel AND the region looking out the next 40 years.

As I posted elsewhere on this forum, when it comes to Israel.......are we not focusing more on the Trade than the long term Trend?

It is an interesting view, sir.

[metalman]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Good post......but you also could have added a "Meanwhile, in Egypt" too:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-...cked-over-film

meanwhile in yemen...

[xear]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

China and Russia have agreed to trade oil for currencies other than U.S. dollar effectively ending the petrodollar. Any country can now go through China and buy oil from the world largest oil exporter without needing dollars. Does no one here have any concern about this?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

meanwhile in yemen...

Yemen is a bit of a "who's who" at the moment in terms of foreign special forces and intelligence operating there by the sounds of things.

Being a glass half full kind of guy at least it's not 1979 again.....yet........the US lost two embassies in 79....Iran and Pakistan.

Iran's Embassy was seized in London, then recovered by UKSF.

Plus there was the Grand Mosque Seizure and recovery

And the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Imagine if iTulip was up and running back then...we'd be getting pretty doomy I reckon. ;)

[c1ue]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Being a glass half full kind of guy at least it's not 1979 again.....yet........the US lost two embassies in 79....Iran and Pakistan.

Iran's Embassy was seized in London, then recovered by UKSF.

Plus there was the Grand Mosque Seizure and recovery

And the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Imagine if iTulip was up and running back then...we'd be getting pretty doomy I reckon. ;)

I dunno about that.

Glass Steagall not yet repealed. For that matter, Reg Z was still around.

Before S & L crisis. Before Barbarians at the Gate. Before junk bonds. Before GFC. Before Output Gap Trap. etc etc.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

in 1979 i was thrilled to get my first mortgage at only 9%!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I dunno about that.

Glass Steagall not yet repealed. For that matter, Reg Z was still around.

Before S & L crisis. Before Barbarians at the Gate. Before junk bonds. Before GFC. Before Output Gap Trap. etc etc.

But in terms of regional stability and security and doomish headlines, 1979 was an exciting year in almost exclusively a bad way.

There was very little in the way of good news bar the Dhofar Rebellion being extinguished(which no one even knew about) and the now seemingly temporary Egyptian/Israeli peace accord.

Even though folks on this forum take a longer view of the big picture, we're still guilty of falling prey to doomer porn headlines.

Just look at all the threads on the region.

In comparison, there's little to no coverage on Equitorial Guinea, Nigeria, Angola, and Congo.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

interesting accusation

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8850CO20120906

"Today somebody is using al Qaeda fighters or people from other organizations with the same extreme views to achieve their goals in Syria," Putin said. "This is a very dangerous and short-sighted policy."

He noted that the United States had imprisoned many alleged Islamic militants at Guantanamo Bay and said it might as well "open the gates to Guantanamo and let all the Guantanamo inmates into Syria, let them fight. It's the same thing".

[GRG55]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

Good post......but you also could have added a "Meanwhile, in Egypt" too:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-...cked-over-film

So how do you like this freedom and democracy in the Middle East thing so far?

14 September 2012 Last updated at 10:05 GMT

US missions braced for protests over anti-Islam film

US missions are on high alert across the Muslim world as anger grows over a film made in the US that mocks Islam.

More anti-American demonstrations are expected after prayers on Friday. In the Egyptian capital, Cairo, police have fired tear gas at about 500 protesters near the US embassy...

...Protesters in Cairo were pushed back from the US embassy to Tahrir Square Square and the BBC's Jon Leyne, in the city, says unrest is still simmering.

The streets around the embassy have been blocked with barbed wire, concrete and police trucks...

...The Muslim Brotherhood of President Mohammed Mursi said it would organise marches and sit-ins in front of mosques - but none outside the US embassy in Cairo...