Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[Slimprofits]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I don't think anyone who is talking in public knows what is going to happen.

Yeah I don't think they're going to give it away in public before it happens. The story that Fred posted is an example of the waters being muddied and what I posted from the LA Times ties in with that. They also quoted an anonymous Israeli official as saying that refusing to declare a redline was helping the Iranians.

Looking at the media, I'm thinking more in terms of who is filling the shoes of Laurie Mylroie and Judith Miller this time around.

There is one candidate over at The Atlantic that has caught my eye.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I don't think anyone who is talking in public knows what is going to happen.

the article linked discusses an emp attack. the problem with an emp attack is that although it doesn't cause damage by radiation or blast, it nonetheless requires the detonation of a nuclear weapon. this is a very bright line to cross.

[EJ]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

the article linked discusses an emp attack. the problem with an emp attack is that although it doesn't cause damage by radiation or blast, it nonetheless requires the detonation of a nuclear weapon. this is a very bright line to cross.

Indeed but it does solve the retaliation problem.

I had dinner last night with an Israeli friend who is generally level-headed about developments in the ME and Israel. He's going in Israel in October and is concerned about the timing of his trip. He has no idea what to expect. He thinks anything could happen.

My feeling about this now is that the EMP talk and the article about how Iran already has enough enriched uranium for a weapon and so on is part of an effort to put more pressure on Iran's regime. The sanctions do appear to be working to crash Iran's economy. Combined with a steady stream of threats of attack from Israel no doubt the average Iranian citizen must be getting close to doing what is needed to oust the regime that is the source of their troubles. A government can't stay in power when its people can't eat and live in constant fear of attack. It will be quite a pleasant development if this goes according to plan and the regime is pushed out and a moderate government takes over. But it could still go the other way.

I feel that the ME is at the edge of history. Several fuses have been lit across the ME over the past two years. Eventually one of them will reach a powder keg if not tamped out. The Mexican standoff between Iran and Israel is only one burning fuse. Syria's civil war, leading to the eventual break-up of the country into three countries, is another. Aside from moral issues, why does this matter to the world?

As we have noted here before, the margin between enough oil and not enough oil for daily global consumption is two to three million barrels per day. If two to three million barrels goes offline for even a short period then oil prices jump to $120 on their way to $150 if the disruption continues. The global economy, already teetering will certainly go into recession, our second Peak Cheap Oil recession. The global output gap then gets bigger and the population of disappointed, angry and confused voters searching for answers grows. Given the extreme level of looniness I see in Four Legs Good, Two Legs Bad public policy debate, a larger population of disgruntled citizens is not a positive trend.

[Bundi]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

On the playground, if you feel like your going to get punched no matter what, don't you swing first? If by swinging first, you bring on too much response to handle, don't you then think of a way to punch without getting punched back, like a knock out blow.

If in fact Iran has a uranium based nuclear capability right now and the regime feels like it is on the brink, I would think a nuclear test would send a strong message to the world, don't screw with us.

[Guest]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I think that if Israel does anything before the US election, Obama will lose. That simple. I think he will lose Florida for sure and Romney will pick up votes in many other states. I think the coasts will also vote Romney however distasteful they may find it.

I think that the only thing that may happen is a massive cyber attack which will be hard to definitively trace to either Israel or the US.

[Raz]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

The Left Coast and New England will never vote Republican.

[shiny!]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I don't think anyone who is talking in public knows what is going to happen.

EJ, what do you think is the liklihood of this happening in the U.S.?

[BadJuju]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

EJ, what do you think is the liklihood of this happening in the U.S.?

Why would you even concern yourself with it? If it ever came to the point in which EMPs are being used against the USA, the entire world will have been obliterated by nuclear war. It is just one of those things that even thinking about it is pointless since the outcome is just completely antithetical to humans.

[BadJuju]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I don't think anyone who is talking in public knows what is going to happen.

If they are able to willing and able to deliver an EMP attack now, there is no reason they cannot wait to do it later when Iran is visibly developing nuclear weapons. As it is, Iran is years away from producing a viable weapon. So I do not really think they would utilize an EMP attack when something so drastic could be used later on with the same effect. I think that is just wild conjecture at this point, like the attack and defense plans the USA has drawn up for an American-Canadian war.

[BadJuju]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

White House declines Netanyahu request to meet with Obama


http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/white-house-declines-netanyahu-request-to-meet-with-obama.premium-1.464328

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

I think that if Israel does anything before the US election, Obama will lose. That simple. I think he will lose Florida for sure and Romney will pick up votes in many other states. I think the coasts will also vote Romney however distasteful they may find it.

I think that the only thing that may happen is a massive cyber attack which will be hard to definitively trace to either Israel or the US.

Don't discount the 'in between" options:

Continued unconventional warfare against Iran

Israeli attack on Syrian territory to nullify Syrian WMD and/or Iranian forces supporting the Assad regime to send a bolder message to Iran than the Israeli raid on the Syrian nuclear reactor almost exactly 5 years ago.

Conventional attack on Iran

[vt]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

This is very significant coming at this time.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

EJ, what do you think is the liklihood of this happening in the U.S.?

A single EMP weapon detonated over the US would cause immense economic damage.

The reliance on electronic componentry affected, in nearly every aspect of our lives, is near total.

However there are a few problems with a group or country attempting to do so:

1.)US military forces are largely hardened from EMP attack, so any group or country doing so would face completely disproportionate retaliation.

2.)US military forces have developed a relatively capable anti-ballistic missile capability that is continuing to grow in capability that MIGHT be able to mitigate the risk if a missile is tracked from launch.

3.)Warhead design. Generally the stage of development for nuclear powers develops from gun-type or implosion type 1st generation single stage nuclear weapons(Hiroshima/Nagasaki), then move onto more complex multi-stage nuclear weapons such as Hydrogen bombs requiring tritium/deuterium to achieve greater yield, then onto more esoteric weapons such as neutron bombs that possess characteristics that enhance radiation but with a reduced blast effect.

And concurrently, engineering efforts are made to improve reliability/repeatability of the weapon design as well to design them smaller in size and weight while retaining functionality under the high stresses and violent movement of being carried under a maneuvering tactical bomber, placed on top of a very high velocity missile, or even man portable and towed underwater to a target.

4.) Delivery system. Having a nuclear weapon and being able to effectively and reliably deliver a nuclear weapon are two separate and distinct hurdles.

Having a somewhat reliable nuclear weapon design mated to a somewhat reliable delivery system(say a missile) can still result in a fairly high likelihood of delivery system or weapon malfunction.

There are only a hand full of countries that possess the ability to accurately and reliably delivery an EMP weapon. I don't believe any of them are anywhere near likely to attempt to use such a weapon against the US.

There would probably be a far greater chance of a Pakistani origin nuclear weapon being delivered on an airliner for detonation in the US on approach than an EMP weapon attack on the US of Iranian origin.

I think for the foreseeable future efforts to mitigate an asymmetric nuclear threat against the US would best be spent on scanning shipping container traffic into the US, proactive threat assessment of international commercial airliners, and effective national border surveillance and control.

As far as defending against a missile based nuclear weapon(EMP would need to be launched by a missile to achieve upper/exo atmosphere) the US has never been in a better position than it is right now as it possesses several land and sea based anti ballistic missile systems that have a pretty good test record, although I believe they need to be co-located within a certain range of the intended target in order to have a chance of intercept.

I think Newt Gingrich was touting a fiction book about an EMP attack on the US before he lost relevancy again.....I think the book was quite popular and broke out into the mainstream and out of just the "doomer-porn" niche.

While theoretically possible, it was probably pandering towards peoples overall feeling of doom in recent years.

So I wouldn't worry about an EMP attack on the US.

[jk]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

obama doesn't want to meet with netanyahu just before the u.s. election. what good could from it as far as he is concerned?

[BadJuju]

Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

This is very significant coming at this time.

It does send a very significant message to Israel.